I predicted this would be among the Right’s talking points a few days ago and it’s come true. First, they say it’s simply “inappropriate” for Trump to extort a foreign power to get dirt on his likely 2020 rival. So, they introduce the idea that Trump’s simply being “naughty.” He didn’t really do anything wrong, you know. He was just “inappropriate.”
Then, once they’ve established a modicum of displeasure with The Dear Leader, they turn around and say, well, you know, Obama did the same thing when it got caught on a hot mic saying he would have “more flexibility” with the Russians after the 2012 elections.
For stupid people let me point out something.
Using your power as president to pressure a foreign power to trump up false charges about your opponent is not just “inappropriate.” That’s a big boy crime.
Simply suggesting that after the election you might have more diplomatic wiggle room on a political level, that’s this thing called diplomacy. I know MAGA hates black people and especially Obama, but if you’re a talking head on FOX News, I thought you were supposed to be “fair and balanced.”
It’s impressive that otherwise well educated and intelligent people would attempt to pull off such a brazen false narrative. As it always the case, MAGA wants to own the moment, damn the consequences. Even when they’re proven wrong by Trump himself’s statements, they’ve moved on to some other way of sucking the little orange weener.
Despite what the esteemed access journalists of The New York Times and The Washington Post may have you believe, Trump is not a diabolical political theorist. He’s not calculating the subtle messaging necessary to convince a housewife just outside of Phillie in a sexless marriage that she should vote for him despite her reservations.
In fact, Trump is simply a very lucky doofus. He’s nothing more than Being There’s Chauncey Gardner if he was on the cusp of losing his mind. There’s no grand strategy other than some basic mindfucks he learned at the feet of Roy Cohen.
A prime example of this is the origins of the TrumpUkraine clusterfuck. If Trump was REALLY such a fucking modern day Machiavelli don’t you think he would have weighed the political pardon the “poor optics” of Bob Mueller’s testimony to Congress gave him? He might have used his SuperMind to lay low and simply coast to an easy re-election. Then, in his second term, he could turn the switch on his sinister second phase.
Is that what he did? Nope. Smarty pants saw his pardon not as an opportunity to lay the groundwork for the much heralded Thousand Year Trump, but as permission to actively pressure a foreign power to collude with him to hurt his likely political rival in 2020. What’s more, doofus did it on a veritable party line. If that’s not insight into numbnut’s true political savvy, I don’t know what is.
And, as such, that’s why he has to be impeached now, damn the political consequences. He’s proven that he’s not only a barely functioning man-child, he’s a willful one at that.
The only reason why Trump’s been so successful to date is a combination of a strong economy, the idiotic disorganization of his opponents and abject lack of shame on the part of Republicans. He owes everything to outside forces beyond his control. Yes, in a sense, one could say he has a native ability to vocalize the rage of the white disenfranchised volk. But even that is grading on a curve. Why else are people hyping Tucker Carlson in 2024? He’s just another hapless racist doofus who’s been on TV.
The Trump threat is existential. If we don’t go down fighting, then Trump is only going to see this as a sign of weakness and up the ante. Trump is so stupid in real terms, that if he felt like he might actually be not only impeached, but convicted, he might be willing to call up Little Rocket Man and ask him to start a war in an effort to wag the dog.
I wish I was joking, but I’m Not.
That such a suggestion isn’t on the face of it too outrageous to even consider is enough to demand impeachment immediately.
As of Monday, Sept. 23, 2019, TrumpUkraine is following the usual Trump scandal playbook. It might be happening a little faster because of the severity and brazenness of the alleged crime, but we’re definitely cruising towards this wrapping up as a net plus for House Trump.
The press will willfully give House Trump the cover to appoint a Special Prosecutor to “look into” the Bidens “just to be sure” as a matter of “transparency.” While high information voters will be angry, the average person who doesn’t follow politics will not know who to believe. Besides, the economy is doing well. Lulz.
No one is showing any political courage at this point. There will come a point very soon when we’re so close to the beginning of the 2020 election cycle that Nancy Pelosi will put out a statement saying while Trump should be impeached, for the good of the nation, it’s best if we just “let the people decide” in November 2020.
It’s definitely not looking like absolutely nothing is going to happen to House Trump because of TrumpUkraine. Or, to put it in political terms, while the general consensus will be Trump should be impeached, he won’t be because the 2020 campaign will have begun. Surely he won’t be re-elected, will he?
Without any sense of there being consequences, Trump will grow more brazen. Lulz.
Occasionally, I have brief flashes in my mind of a post-Trump Era that doesn’t involve America devolving into Trumplandia. For a brief second, I see America in which House Trump is no longer ascendant. Maybe Tucker Carlson or Tom Cotton may be waiting in the wings to fuck everything up again, but for a moment, at least, America isn’t run by a lawless tyrant.
I doubt this situation would last very long, but for a few months, at least, maybe America might right its ship of state. The thing is, if this were to actually happen, we would look back on the Trump Era in awe. The whole thing is such a catrastrophic culsterfuck that it’s difficult to comprehend that it really did, in fact happen.
There are reasons why this repsite would likely be counted in days or weeks, not even months. The shock of House Trump losing power in some spectator fashion would strike the country totally unprepared. If the mythical Pence Pivot actually did happen the tectonic forces that would be unleashed would be awe inspiring. What’s a personality cult without its personality ? Trump is likely to push positions on both sides as he goes down to some really astonishing extremes. So much so that a lot of pretty prominent MAGA talking heads might have overnight conversions to politics a little less crackpot. If it happened, it would be probably the most astonishing political event of my lifetime. You don’t live a political lie so publically for so long without there being consequences with the normal world snaps back into place.
If you really wanted to drop acid, if somehow even Pence left office abruptly for political reasons, President Nancy Pelosi would have her hands full. Though it would probably make everyone pop a gasket, ideally she would pardon Trump and Pence and vow not to run for the nomination in 2020.
But the idea that not only both Trump and Pence would be pushed out before the 2020 election is, at this point, so completely ridiculous given available datapoints that it’s comical. The Republican field would probably be as big as the Democrat field is right now. Of course the biggest fascist would win and we’d have to fight tooth and nail to prevent Trump from happening all over again in 2020.
In all honesty, I refuse to get my hopes up. The DNI will testify on Thursday, we’ll have a repeat of Mueller’s testimony and darkness will gradually fall on the nation I love so much.
No one listens to me. No one. Absolutely no one. But one thing I am good at, at least I like to think I’m good at, is strategic thinking. I’ve mentioned the concept of Radical Resistance before and it was promptly ignored. But I have a bit of time on my hands and so here we go. Here is how I would push Donald J. Trump out of office sooner rather than later.
Pick A Leader I propose Jon Stewart. He’s the perfect guy to serve as the pointman for what happens over the next few days. And this plan would have to take place ASAP. If you wait until the politics are right, Trump will be comfortably in the middle of his second term. Anyway, someone ring Jon Stewart up and ask him to save the Republic. The hardest part might be getting him on Twitter.
A United Message Right now, Democratic candidates for president are in different universe. There’s a brief window of opportunity. If just a few days all the Democrat candidates for president united against the common foe of Trump in a demonstrative fashion, then there’s a chance they might be able to break through the white noise of modern life to get people to sit up and take notice. We’re in extraordinary times and extraordinary measures are needed. Rallying around someone like Jon Stewart would be a good way to put aside the native intercen conflict of the upcoming primary season. The key point of this share message would be: as a matter of principle, Trump has to go. Full stop. Screw the six dimensional chess. It’s time to act.
The point of Radical Resistance would be to focus the obvious public outrage over TrumpUkraine to a very specific point — building public support to impeach Trump even if he tries to slow walk release of the complaint against him. The law is clear — the DNI has to turn over the complaint. The administration is trying a bullshit interpretation of the law to weasel out of ever releasing the complaint. If Democrats could impress upon the public how urgent this crisis is, maybe we might get one of those moments like we had during the kids-in-cages crisis. For a day or so, the entire country stood still as everyone freaked out about that situation. Now, to be clear, Trump is never going to release the complaint, just like he will never release his taxes. But if you could rile people up enough, then that refusal to release the complaint would, in itself, be an impeachable offence. (The slow walk of its release is all part of the Stormy Daniels playbook that TrumpWorld is so fond of.)
Weaponise The Inteligenta While generally getting writers to do anything collectively is like herding cats, if you could kind of gently point the in the same direction with their columns, you might have a fighting chance to bend the arc of history towards justice.
It’s clear that we’ve reached a crucial moment in our nation’s history. This is an existential moment. It’s a moment when the ultimate judge of our success or failure will be history. Do we want to be remembered as not being willing to defend an attack on the Constitution by a TV Game Show host elected president with the aid and comfort of a foreign power, or do we want to stand our ground, damn the consequences?
I honestly don’t think this will happen, though. The DNI hearing on Thursday will be a dud, the energy for impeachment will fade and MAGA will crow about yet another “lie” on the part of the “lamestream media” has been exposed.
Anyway, I guess it was worth a shot to articulate a vision.
We all know that you’re enjoying the quiet life petting rescue goats, but your nation needs you. You are uniquely qualified to slice the boil of political paralysis the country is currently suffering as a result of the TrumpUkraine scandal.
When you get angry, things happen, things change. You are passionate and articulate and if you were to step forward to lead the Resistance in a final push to impeach Trump, then maybe it might happen. The only reason for this plea is right now we’re a would-be revolution without a leader. All the elements are there. We just need someone to strike the match.
You would have to step forward as a political figure, however. You would have to maybe even join Twitter. As it stands, no one is prepared to actually act against Trump in any meaningful way. Maybe if you spoke up clearly and forcefully, the now locked gears of the House might finally begin to move.
This is probably the most severe political crisis in the United States since the latter stages of Watergate. Unfortunately, this is not 1974 and Trump’s not Nixon. You definitely would have to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.
Only you, I believe, would be able to coordinate the type of attack needed on House Trump. For the time being, Democrats running for president would need to unite in one common call — Trump has got to go. The political energy is now there for that to happen, but there’s no one to direct it.
Anyway, maybe you’re not interested. But I would like to note that Will Rodgers was active in Depression Era Democratic politics before his untimely death. But whatever decision you made, you’d have to make it soon, like now. We have a limited amount of time before this becomes just another Trump scandal in the eyes of the public and the 2020 presidential silly season kicks in in full force.
First, let me say for the record that I’m almost always wrong. I speculate a lot, but that’s more a matter of me liking to daydream than any sort of special insight. So, in a sense, it’s likely I’m wrong again.
And, yet, because of the brazen nature of Trump’s criminal behavior with Ukraine, it seems to me that anyone who continues to talk about how we’re just going to beat Trump in 2020 like we beat him in 2018 is missing the forest for the trees.
So far, the only thing that makes this particular scandal different is the intensity of the outrage associated with it has lasted just a little bit longer than normal. And, in a sense, that might be more a function of the media needing to hype the DNI’s testimony on Thursday. I would suggest everyone hold off on 2020 horse race hot takes until at least the hearing takes place.
In all likelihood, the hearing’s going to be a dud, just like Mueller’s. Trump and MAGA get to crow about all the lies of the “lamestream media” and that will be that. In that case, I just don’t see how there’s going to be a free and fair election. I’ve gotten some pushback on my belief that autocratic populists always win. My reponse is the Electoral College is a uniquely American feature of our election process. Democrats could easily win the popular vote, only to lose the Electoral College because of any number of different skullduggery techniques by House Trump.
There’s a tiny chance that the entire march to the Iowa Caucuses could be thrown for a loop. There’s at least a greater-than-zero chance that some pretty speculator political events could take place between now and early 2020. I have my doubts because, well, Trump has a cult of personality. And, yet, for the time being, I have a nagging, lingering feeling that it’s a least possible all these people telling us that this or that person will benefit from not impeaching Trump…may….have…their plans scrambled.
But, in all likelihood, Trump is fine. This will all fizzle out like it always does and darkness will fall.
Trump has generated numerous sizable scandals over the run of his administration to date. To date, either they explode for about a 24 hour period, or they gradually fade from view as people process what happened. The most recent scandal, TrumpUkraine, is different for one important reason — it’s existential.
Any outcome will mark a watershed in modern American politics. It doesn’t matter what happens, we will have entered a new era. If it goes as expected and after the acting DNI testifies before Congress on Thursday all the energy for impeachment fizzles out, then Trump will be even more brazen in his corrupt, criminal behavior. If this is dismissed as just another scandal trumped up by liberals with Trump Derangement Disorder, then there will not be a free and fair election in 2020. Not even close. It’s going to be pretty perfunctory.
There really will be no stopping Trump at that point. He will be above the law. The Constitution won’t really even be in effect anymore. That’s the most likely outcome. I would give it about a 99% likelihood. Republicans have no shame and Democrats have no courage.
But, just for fun, let’s imagine things don’t quite go that way. If instead of all the momentum for impeachment abruptly vanishing like during the later part of the Muller Report situation, what if the pressure to somehow miraculously increases. If the issue of the complaint itself being released becomes the focal point, then I would imagine all those young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench would slow walk it. That would be their way of effectively making impeachment a moot point. The impeachment investigation would dwindle over the months of the case bouncing around the court system and Trump uses the levers of power to win reelection. Sometime in the middle of his second term it goes to SCOTUS and he wins. Again, game over.
That scenario is also far more likely than the good guys winning. But let’s, just for fun again, imagine that somehow it doesn’t get slow walked. Imagine that it actually bounces around the Judiciary pretty quick. Then, again, any decision would be significant. If SCOTUS sides with Trump, then darkness falls.
But if somehow SCOTUS shocks us all and rules again Trump, then that would be the final endgame. As I’ve said before, this is not 1974 and Trump’s not Nixon. Trump would rather destroy the Constitution than turn over the complaint. So, he ignores the ruling and the Senate won’t convict him. Ta-da. Again, darkness falls.
If somehow the Senate did convict him — which it would not, never — then we have a 9/11 level crisis while we wait to evict Trump from the Oval Office. He will never leave if he was somehow convicted. We will have to physically remove him.
For someone so paranoid and willing to fight back, Trump often doesn’t take existential problems seriously at first. Several times over the last four or so years, starting with the Access Hollywood tape, Trump has initially laughed off or dismissed scandals threatened his political existence.
So, in a sense, we’re still in the beginning stages of this particular situation. Trump’s playing with the press’ mind, tell them he’s “considering” releasing the complaint against them, when, in fact, he has no intention of doing it. This causes confusion and initial relief among people who are growing ever-more worried about what’s going on. Soon enough, of course, we’re going to find out this is total bullshit. If past is any indication, if Trump “releases” the complaint it will be at first a summary and then once momentum to impeach dies down, he’ll get Bill Barr to release a heavily redacted version of the complaint. At least, that would follow the well-worn path hone by the Stormy Daniels and Muller Report situations. Trump appears to be using a variety of different oft-used techniques at this point. And they appear to be working. So, really, there’s no need for him to really be all that concerned.
Having said that, while I still believe in practical terms the current Washington convention wisdom is while Trump should be impeached, he won’t be impeached, I do feel a level of tension on Twitter I’ve not seen since the worst days of the lead up to The Muller Report. And some of the usual suspects when it comes to opposition to Trump have clearly been subtly radicalized by what we know so far about what Trump is accused of doing.
And so, really, Trump would have every reason to believe that while things might get a little bumpy between now and Thursday when the acting DNI is set to testify, in real terms this is just another scandal that will blow over. There will be all this excitement about an explosive testimony and it’ll be a big old dud. Within 24 hours, Trump will do God-only-knows what in his never-ending quest to secure re-election using any available lever of power at his disposal. Take into consideration that either Trump will instruct the guy not to testify in the first place or make it clear he can only talk about such a limited number of topics that it’s nearly moot for him to speak at all What’s more, he is likely to do that old stonewalling routine TrumpWorld is so fond of where he never actually invokes Executive Privilege but uses it anyway not to have to answer any questions. And House Democrats are completely incompetent when it comes to questioning.
As such, as of Sunday afternoon, I would predict that by Friday morning MAGA will be crowing that yet again the lamestream media got it wrong and Trump should be able to simply stay in office for the rest of his life because that would be the only fair thing to do.
For this not to be the case, something dramatically different would have to happen. Something that diverged from the Stormy Daniels-Mueller Report playbook. I’m at a loss as to what that might be. Populist autocrats always win. They never lose once they’re in power. So, in that sense, it’s too late. The worst case scenarios of 2016 are about to happen. It’s just a matter of the specifics.
Now, simply to make myself feel better, I’m going to walk you through the most insane, bonkers scenarios I can possibly thing of what might happen if the impossible happens — political gravity actually begins to work again with Trump.
Trump Start A War This is a gimmy. We’re already on the verge of a war with Iran. Within days of it becoming apparent that he faced an existential threat, Trump attacks Iran. Poof! Problem solved. By the time things get back to normal, Trump’s comfortably in this second term. Far less likely is somehow Trump starts a war with the DPRK. I always thought if there was Korean unification it would probably happen in some really weird way. Trump force-starting such a war in an effort to wag the dog would definitely fit the bill.
MAGA Murders The Whistleblower After A Trump “Joke” While this one might seem somewhat hysterical, it would be appropriate for Trump to finally — in effect — kill someone on Fifth Ave and not lose a vote. As sinks in to our doofus president that he faces an existential political threat, Trump doxes the whistleblower on Twitter. He rants that the guy is a member of the Deep State and “jokes” that someone ought to teach him a lesson. Some rando MAGA jackass with an AR-15 shoots up the guys house and kills him and maybe a few family members. Lulz! Fox News sends “thoughts and prayers” and Brit Hume ever-so-seriously says we simply can’t hold the president responsible for a “joke” that caused an obviously mentally-ill person to commit such a tragedy.
The Roy Cohen Option If Trump escapes political consequences AGAIN, then he orders Bill Barr to establish a Special Prosecutor to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden. Not only is everything muddled — like always — but Trump can always do the drip-drip-drip of 2016, only this time he’s in control of it. At strategic moments in 2020, Trump attacks the Bidens for this or that bullshit thing.
Trump Breaks The Constitution In this scenario, Trump leans into all those young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench. The release of the complaint bounces around for months — maybe even years. (But let’s say months.) It’s August 2020. This, in a sense, is a worst-case-scenario. Most likely Trump destroys faith in SCOTUS when he wins the case against him to release the complaint 5-4. Really, it would boil down to one person — Chief Justice Roberts. If he has a modicum of integrity, he will vote with the more liberal members of the court, giving us a 5-4 vote against Trump. This is not 1974 and Trump’s not Nixon. If Trump somehow miraculously lost the SCOTUS case, he would simply ignore it. That would be that. The entire Constitutional system collapses. Trump might actually get impeached, but Emmet Flood pops up when the case is briefly heard in the Senate. Trump easily escapes conviction. We never see the complaint or Trump’s taxes. House Trump enjoys The Thousand Year Trump. History looks back upon The United States as simply a longer-lived version of the Weimar Republic. Trump doesn’t even attempt to pretend the election is free and fair. Might even just make good on his “joke” and stay in office for the rest of his life.
If we get anywhere past this, well, we’re entering 9/11 levels of crisis.
Trump Resigns, With Conditions So, if a bunch of Republicans Senators should happen to go to the White House a la 1974 and tell Trump he doesn’t have the votes, there is a chance that he would resign, but only with some pretty stiff conditions. One would be he would get a full pardon. The other one would be he would get to pick Pence’s replacement as Veep. Trump has a chat with his kids and somehow decides between the one he wants to fuck (Ivanka) and the one who has his name (Don Jr.) This would, in a sense, secure House Trump. In 2024, there’s a battle between House Trump and Pence. Guess who wins!
The Impossible Happens This is so impossible, it’s almost a waste of time to even write these words — Trump is convicted in the Senate after he scoffs at the idea the doesn’t have the votes in the Senate. The only thing I can imagine in this situation would be, well, something pretty tragic. Trump holds up in the White House, refusing to acknowledge the decision. He rage-tweets all day long. He snaps because of the pressure losing the presidency. We have a few days of figuring out how to change the nuclear codes. Trump tweets out a dick pick. He calls Obama the N-word on Twitter. He threats to kill himself. He says anything and everything in an attempt to get the MAGA faithful to rush to the White House to protect him. For a surreal few days — maybe even weeks — Trump holds the entire county captive. Even I can’t predict how that particular situation might wrap up.
But, really, I think Trump has nothing to worry about. He’s going to cruise into a second term, weaponize the ICE camp infrastructure and I get a free bed in one of the camps.
In fact, I would say the only thing that makes this Ukraine scandal different is the severity of the crimes alledged makes it difficult for us to muddle through. There’s going to be a decision one way or another and whatever it is, there’s no turning back.
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