Month: September 2019

Review: Ad Astra

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

*Spoilers*

Ad Astra is a good movie, not a great movie. The closest movie I can compare it to in spirit is Ex Machina. Both movies linger in the mind after you watch them. But Ex Machina is a far better movie.

I get the vision of the movie intended by this Brad Pitt vanity project. It’s supposed to be a melancholy rumination on the human condition and a man’s relationship with his distant father. Ok, I get it. And I get why they kept talking about aliens only for there to be no aliens.

And, yet, the movie is a little too subtle for its own good. It might benefit from the very thing didn’t want to have — aliens. I say this because the movie is obviously inspired by 2001: A Space Odyssey. Though the more astute of you will notice an homage to the campy space classic Dark Star. (In Dark Star an astronaut rides a piece of his ship into a planet’s atmosphere like a surfboard. Pitt does something a little similar at one point.)

In a sense, I think the lack of aliens is kind of a cop-out. Much of the rest of the movie was serviceable adult-oriented entertainment. It wasn’t hackish at all. It’s just the whole thing could have been a whole lot more…profound. The whole thing was so slight, so subtle that it felt lacking.

I have to be a nerd and point out the producers of the movie apparently are completely oblivious to the difference in the gravity on the moon and Mars compared to earth. But you can’t have everything, I guess.

But I did honestly like the movie. It’s going to be a great on-air entertainment for people flying to Walla Walla.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi Is Complicit In Trump’s Tyranny

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I don’t often get angry enough to yell at my Congressional representatives. But when it became obvious that the Inspector General wasn’t going to follow the letter of the law when it came to the whistleblower situation, I lost it. I popped a gasket. I called all the offices of my Congressional delegation.

I was so mad, in fact, that I also called the offices of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. That did not go very well. I tried to yell at an actual human being, but they just put me on hold after I started talking.

Anyway, I would like to note something. It definitely seems as though because Speaker Pelosi wants to make sure polls indicate the populace supports impeachment, she’s pretty much carrying water for Trump’s re-election campaign. As I understand it, the current thinking in the upper echelons of House Leadership is they can’t impeach Trump because if he loses, then MAGA will blame them for it. They also can’t impeach him because given that the Senate will never convict him, they don’t want to give Trump vindication and something to run on.

In a sense, this is simply the pussy ass bitch version of the Republicans’ political thinking about Trump. Republicans won’t do anything about Trump because they find tax cuts and young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench so absolutely intoxicating that they are willing to ride the MAGA pony to the bottom.

Meanwhile, I don’t know what the fuck is going on with Democrats. When the final history of the United States is finally written — sooner rather than later, I’m afraid — the sheer callow, feckless nature of House Democrats during the Trump Era will be at least a chapter. They are so wrapped up in policy and throwing money at people in different ways that they are apparently completely oblivious to something very basic — Trump is a lawless tyrant.

They are so busy drinking lattes and smelling their own farts that they don’t realize this is a war. Under no scenario will Trump not do everything in his power to paint himself as a victim. Democrats are fighting the last war. The problem is, if they don’t get their act together, they may not have a next war to fight.

As of right now, impeachment is a dead letter. Not that it won’t come back the moment there’s a Republican House and a Democratic President. It will and with a vengeance. I don’t really think that will ever happen because, well, we have The Thousand Year Trump now. House Trump will rule the country for the next 20 years — if not more. Their power should theoretically wane about the time the youngest of the Baby Boomers die and the Browning of America kicks in. But even that is simply theory. More likely at some point Tiffany Trump will tweet “I am the state” and that will be that.

That Speaker Pelosi would put crass political considerations ahead of the fate of the nation is just as bad as the abject lack of backbone displayed by Republicans. And, honestly, I don’t see anything changing. The same playbook used by Trump and Rudy with Stormy Daniels and the Mueller Report will be used here and that’s it. It’s just another big scandal in the Trump Era that fades into oblivion until the next, even bigger scandal.

Prove me wrong, Nancy.

Art Isn’t Created In A Vacuum

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I would say one of the biggest surprises to learn on a practical level about seriously writing a novel is how outside events shape the narrative. This especially the case since I want this novel to be my “Apocalypse Now” of the Trump Era. Instead of explicating the entirety of the Vietnam War in a movie, I’m doing so about life under Trump in a novel.

Two other movies that are important to me are Network and Being There. Network because it is both timeless and very timely. You could release Network today and would still be a success. I like how it explains the modern world in an entertaining fashion. I am not in anyway proposing I’m that good a writer, but it is at the forefront of my mind as I write.

Being There is really important to me because it’s a snapshot of post-Watergate America in the late 70s. If I wanted to explain to a teen what 1979 was like, I would show them Being There. So, even though my novel is completely different than Being There, there is a spiritual connection.

Anyway, the point is, I started this novel thinking it would be a snapshot — in a general way — of life leading up to the release of The Mueller Report. Well, given how long it takes — at least me — to write a novel as well as the unknowns of post-production, it’s definitely looking like this is going to be both more ambitious and more general. Instead of just the first two years of the Trump Era, the novel is meant to encompass the entirety of it in a general sense.

If I am successful with my vision for this novel, you’ll be able to read it over a three day weekend in 20201 and it not even really register that it was generated by my abject rage against MAGA (and extremism in general.) It should be just an interesting novel that’s very accessible and zips by. Only if I were to point it out to you will you notice the allegorical nature of the work.

But that’s down the road. For the time being, I’m hard at work on the first draft. It just takes physical time to write between 165,000 and 185,000 words. For the time being I have the proper momentum to keep going. It definitely doesn’t hurt that the very thing I’m so angry about that I want to write a novel about it — the Trump Era — definitely doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.

Trump Defenses #WhistleblowerGate

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Coming soon to a TV — and maybe Senate well — near you!

The Bullshit Defense
Fuck you, you libtard. Doesn’t matter if he did it. You kill babies. MAGA! MAGA! MAGA!

The Biden Is A Criminal Defense
Fuck you. Investigate Biden and Obama’s Netflix Deal! Lock her up! Benghazi!

The Deep State Defense
George Soros paid Obama to pay the Deep State to listen into on Trump. It doesn’t matter what he did, the REAL crime is that the Deep State is trying to bring Our President, The Chosen One, down. And…by the way..fuck you.

The Disgruntled Partisan Defense
Doesn’t matter what Trump did, this is obviously some disgruntled holdover from the Obama administration. Fuck you.

The Obama Did The Same Thing Defense
This is one I could see Emmet Flood using. We get to watch Obama say, “I’ll have more flexibility after the election” on a hot mic for 11 hours. This is bullshit because what he wasn’t illegal and it was simply traditional diplomacy. But that doesn’t matter. Flood will simply want to give political cover to Republican Senators to acquit.

The “He Was Joking” Defense
Oh, you know Trump, what a kidder!

The Master Negotiator Defense
Trump’s a master negotiator. He was just freestyling, like very stable geniuses do.

The Doofus Defense
He didn’t know what he was doing was wrong.

We All Know The Endgame Of #WhistleblowerGate

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It definitely seems as though Trump and his ilk are not taking this situation seriously yet. They see it as just another scandal to bat away using the Stormy Daniels playbook. And, honestly, they have every reason to believe this to be so. There simply is not — and will not be — the political guts on the part of the House Democrats necessary to do anything about this situation. Add to this that Republicans are either silent or rationalizing this whole thing away and Trump’s second term consolidation of power is all but assured.

But should this crassly illegal situation begin to get some political momentum in an existential manner, be prepared for some pretty astonishing things to happen. The biggest one is Trump is going to dox the whistleblower on Twitter.

Trump won’t stop there. If Trump feels even the slightest hint that this story is getting traction, he will not only dox the whistleblower, he will dox the poor guy’s entire family. Trump will “joke” that maybe MAGA should show up at his house and break his legs.

This will, in turn, happen.

And still nothing will happen. So Trump will, in effect, get someone murdered. There will be a 24 hour news cycle of people being upset on Twitter, but the damage will be done. Trump will never resign and the Senate will never convict him.

Trump see this as a sign of weakness on the part of the opposition. He will purge and pardon his way through his second term.

The end.

TrumpWorld Is Making A Strategic Mistake In Its Handling Of #WhistleblowerGate

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Now, let me be clear — populist autocrats never lose. And TrumpWorld is using the Stormy Daniels / Muller Report playbook to make sure the MAGA base is content with a strong economy and young, hack MAGA Federal judges. So, to that extent, things are fine for them. As long as Nancy Pelosi is playing six dimensional chess with her head up her ass, they have nothing to worry about.

And, yet, Trump and his associates are so quick to attack for the sake of attacking, that they are missing a pretty big — and obvious — strategy that would be one way to clear the way for a successful 2020 bid. Instead of going after the whistleblower and dragging this whole thing out until it’s a moot point because 2020 is here, why address the issue from a position of strength?

Come clean and then sit back and wait. Throw down the gauntlet to House Democrats. Effectively say, “Ok, convict me.” This would call the House Democrats’ bluff. The whole thing would collapse like a souffle. The 2020 campaign would begin, Trump would win re-election (like he would anyway). Trump consolidates power and that would be that.

The reason why they won’t do it, of course, is they would see such strategic thinking as a sign of weakness. Their feeble minds are not prepared to do something so outrageous in the short term.

Imagining The Impossible

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

There are two absolutes in American politics right now.

One is Trump will never resign. The other is the Senate will never convict Trump.

So, really, any talk of impeaching Trump is moot. It would be little more than a slap on the wrist. Trump will see his inevitable aquittle as an exoneration and use it as the centerpiece of his re-election campaign.

Given that populist autocrats never lose, we are safe in assuming that Trump will “win” re-election somehow. He will use his second term to consolidate power. The United States will no-so-gradually (or quietly) drift into a Russian-style authoritarian “managed democracy” and that will be that.

But, for the sake of entertainment, let’s suppose somehow the impossible happens. Let’s suppose somehow miraculously Trump leaves office between now, and, say, the Feb-March timeframe.

We’re going to assume that Pence becomes president. Any talk that Pence is also involved in the current imbriglio, while likely true, simply at this point is too insane to speculate on.

The first issue is a pardon. Most likely, President Pence would made inane, general statements on this issue for the duration of the campaign. But, of course, he would pardon Trump at some point early in his first full term. His hope would be it would help “united” and “heal” the nation. But his real goal would be do to it so early that by the time he ran for re-election in 2024, it would be a long time ago and wouldn’t matter.

Another issue is the 2020 race. Pence is a much more conventional politician than Trump. Is only discernible weakness is he’s so fucking conservative that he is unlikely to get a lot of moderate swing voters. But he, much like Trump, wouldn’t really care about that. He just needs to tip the right swing states just enough to win their electoral votes. (Sorry California.)

One enormous issue that I can’t figure out is if our democratic norms would snap back into place or if things have been so fucked up that there’s no going back. Probably it would be some sort of muddled in between. That is until, of course, Tom Cotton becomes president with the same agenda as Trump only in a much more focus manner.

The Democratic 2020 field is not prepared to run against a President Pence. It would totally throw the entire thing for a loop. The absolute worst case scenario — and thus the most likely — is just about the time Democrats pick a challenger to Trump, Trump somehow leaves office.

Anyway, this is never going to happen. Never. NEVER. Trump is an elected dictator and the only question at this point is if he will ever leave office willingly, Constitution be damned.

Populist Autocrats Never Lose

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The United States has been in a chronic political crisis since Trump was elected. And what’s going on right now seems like more of the same. There’s just no indication that this recent scandal isn’t going to play itself out like all the rest.

The political clock is ticking. We’re well past the moment in time when its feasible to impeach Trump, much less convict him. That The Mueller Report came out four months ago and we’re exactly where we were then when it comes to impeachment tells you all you need to know. Trump is successfully running down the clock.

All he needs to do is punt this problem into 2020 and he wins. Once he punts it to 2020, he can punt it to his second term. He gets at least a two year pardon once he’s re-elected. He will have more than enough time to considolate power by that point. His biggest decision in 2022 will be picking between Don Jr. and Ivanka as his successor.

Nothing gives me any hope that anything we learn about this whistle blower will matter. And, really, given what I’ve seen about the matter, it’s more likely Bill Barr will arrest the guy for treason and that will be that. Nancy Pelosi will stamp her feet and talk about “self-impeachment.”

I like to do scenarios and there no scenario where the bad guys don’t win. If we’ve gotten this far in the process, that’s it. The House Democratic leadership has made its decision. They don’t want to impeach Trump. They’re going to hang all their political hopes on him losing in 2020. He is most definitely NOT going to lose in 2020.

The only vague feeling of hope I have about all of this is presidential second terms tend to be far worse than second terms. That’s it. That’s all I got. Not until there’s a demostrable event that is different than past such incidents will I think anything will come of this.

And, really, given that Trump is simply an avatar for some pretty fucked up things going on in America, even if we were to miraculously get rid of him in the short term, a lot of very smart, young and passionate would-be tyrants have learned all they need to know from Trump.

#Novel Notes For Sept. 19th, 2019 #AmWriting #WritingLife

Shelton Bumgarner

Some thoughts.



The Pot Is Boiling

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Several times since the Trump Era officially began, I have felt a sense that things have gotten kind of hot for Trump. I feel that now, but my expectations are far lower than previously. The reason is simple — the Trump defense strategy at this point is run out the clock. Their first goal is simply push all of this into 2020.

Once they do that, then the 2020 presidential political season has officially begun. There simply will be no will power on the part of the Democrats to aggressively investigate whatever treasonous things the president may have done. At that point, everyone — outside of the Democratic base — will agree to “let the people decide.”

The 2020 election will happen and Trump “wins.” (He will never lose.) Then Trump gets a solid two year political pardon. By 2022, Trump will have done new crimes and the process starts all over again.

If you throw into the mix that the Federal bench is dominated by young MAGA judges, then, well, the pot is boiling and the frog is dead. Either Trump or his younger, more focused and organized successor will turn America into an autocratic state similar to Russia’s “managed democracy.”

Though I would note that if Emmet Flood pops up in the Trump circle that Trump is taking any moves to impeach him seriously. Otherwise, meh.