Category: Tsar-A-Largo

The Grift That Is MAGA

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The thing about MAGA is it’s based on a lie. The whole thing is bullshit. Really, at its core, MAGA is identity politics for white people. Throw in some base misogyny and nativism and amosexualism and Christian persecution porn and you have yourself a very powerful political movement.

What’s so astonishing to me is how easy is it to grift MAGA. Sometimes, the bigger the grift, the more popular you are. That, I think, explains MAGA. Trump is the biggest grifter of all. His grift has become so successful that it’s the basis of a cult of personality.

I have, on more than one occasion, thought about trying the grift myself. It would be very easy to abruptly change political views a la Dennis Miller. Within six months, I’d likely be having lunch with Trump himself. The need for grift is that powerful within the MAGA movement.

The whole thing has become so ridiculous — and is so based on hair-trigger hypocrisy — that wild things happen over and over again. The most recent example of this is the surreal attack on Debra Messing. She committed — as I understand it — a minor infraction on Twitter and the MAGA echo chamber is out for blood. But it seems pretty obvious that the whole thing is not being done in good faith and it’s being used as excuse to own a lib that Trump has attacked recently.

This is a prime example of how Trump is simply an avatar for a deeper, darker, problem in American society. We’ve reached the point where MAGA will do anything to get and keep power to such an extent that the “Resistance” simply can’t keep up. When your political opponent is an ideological zombie and you’re trying to reason with them using “norms” you’re setting yourself up for failure.

What might happen is sometime in the middle of Trump’s second term, the center-Left might realize it has to adopt the “new rules” of MAGA to defend itself. Unfortunately, while it has to be done for simple political survival, long term it’s the setup for nothing less than a civil war — or a military junta. There may come a time, I’m afraid, when Blue States begin to believe that the only way to keep any semblance of freedom is to leave the Union altogether. That definitely would put the Red States absolute desire to “own the libs” to the test, now wouldn’t it.

It’s kind of sad when the best case scenario you can think of to keep yoru nation together long-term is a military junta. But that’s some time down the road. For the time being the MAGA grift will continue. The center-Left is, sadly, a bunch of wussies in my opinion. I’ve mulled the need for, on an ideological level, a form of Radical Resistance. But in hindsight I realize I was extremely naive. MAGA is a cancer that is going to kill the patient and I can’t see that there is anything to do about it.

Populist Autocrats Never Lose

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I believe with 200% certainty that Donald Trump will have a second term. Whatever you think the worst case scenario with Trump might be, we’re going to see that and worse. At this point, it’s really just a matter of decree. Will Trump declare himself president for life? Will he abolish the House? Will he actively work to degrade norms and laws to such an extent that any president who isn’t MAGA at some point in the future is not seen as legitimate and is completely neutered?

Or put another way — it’s growing pretty apparent that America is hurdling towards some mish-mash of Apartheid South Africa and modern day Venezuela. America is going to a third world country with an obscene amount of WMD. Or, put another way, the 1% will prosper and everyone else will sink into poverty, sickness and ignorance.

I say all this because Trump is an avatar for systemic, existential problems in American society and governing. Eliminate Trump as political force and someone else will pop up to fill the need. A series of groups who follow the “new rules” system of politics will do everything in their power to make sure Trump gets a second term. They will break laws, they will lie with abandon, they will hack the election, you name is. Whatever they have to do see a second term, they will do.

And the so-called “Resistance” is so busy with identity politics that they’re going to let it happen from sheer incompetence, if nothing else. The worse part of all of this is it couldn’t be avoided. People might bitch and moan about how if only Hillary Clinton had won in 2016 all of this might have been avoided, but they’re deluding themselves. The racism of the Obama Era would have become the misogyny of the Hillary Clinton Era. Trump or someone like him would have run in 2020 and won.

I honestly don’t know what can be done at this point. When one of the two major parties fundamentally is not operating in good faith and is wilful in its refusal to accept any fact that hurts them, then, well, that’s it. It’s over.

What’s worse is, ultimately, I think, either the Blue States bolt from the Union at some point in the next 20 years or some successor to Trump will abolish them altogether. Blue States will be run by MAGA appointed governments. In fact, the best case scenario is the military will step in and rule via a junta. That’s the best case scenario.

People who get too wrapped up in Trump miss the point — Trump just fills a function. It could be anybody like Trump. In fact, if you wanted make yourself feel better, you could say in a way Trump’s criminal incompetence has actually slowed the inevitable progression into tyranny. In his second term, Trump’s mental deterioration will only increase. So it might be a little bit more difficult for him to full-fill is despotic dreams.

But at some point after, say, 2025, someone younger and more focused will do what Trump could not do. I would say it will probably be some sort of wide-spread civil disturbance in Blue States that will be the excuse. Or a major terrorist attack. Only Red States will be allowed to have any form of functioning democracy and even then it will be strictly monitored and controlled.

There’s no turning back. Nothing we can do other than vote. I’d like to think freedom of speech might linger long enough for me to die before it’s completely extinguished, but I’m probably fooling myself.

I don’t see any happy endgame.

Impeaching Trump Won’t Fix The Deeper Existential Problem In America

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

While I would be overjoyed if House Democrats finally pull their thumbs out of their asses and impeached Trump, my elation would come with some qualifications. The issue is, Trump is an avatar for an existential problem in America that is not going away anytime soon. In fact, I would propose it won’t fade until about 20 years from now when the youngest of the Baby Boomers die off just around the time we reach a tipping point with the browning of America.

Though impeaching Trump makes a lot of sense on an abstract level, actually doing it is problematic. Again, I’m not saying we shouldn’t do it — we should. I’m just pointing out that doing it — even successfully — won’t be the panacea too many people on Twitter seem to think it would be. First and foremost, it is likely to fail. So Trump could run as having been “vindicated” the moment he’s acquitted by the Senate. What’s worse, even if impeaching Trump was somewho, miraculously successful, that would mean Pence would have not one, but two opportunities to run for president as an incumbent.

But this raises another issue — Trump is such a horrible person and president the issue of impeachment may eventually be out of all of our hands. I could see more than one scenario where Trump’s mental state grows so dangerous — like 9/11 crisis dangerous — that things fall apart for Trump not in months or weeks but days. In fact, in a sense, that’s the only way impeachment makes any sense to me at this point — to fix a specific crisis. Trump has such a lock on the minds of about 35% of the electorate that while we should impeach him, we should also manage our expectations as to what it will accomplish.

And, yet, really, long term we have to accept that given that Trump is no more than an avatar for a deep existential problem with the United States that there is, in fact, no bottom as to how far things are likely to go. If Federal elections don’t become perfunctory, then there will be active hacking by the Russians. If that doesn’t work, then MAGA will intimidate and bribe individual electors. ICE will be weaponized and the existing camps will be filled not with asylum seekers, but with anyone who has the temerity to challenge the the will of The Leader. I wish this was being hysterical, but it’s not. This is a real possibility. We could go full Russian manage democracy in brief few years. Like, less than five.

I wish I could tell you there was some solution. There’s none. Short term, I would suggest that the Left adopt the “new rules” that the Right is so fond of. We go eyeball-to-eyeball with them every political chance we can get. If that means the government grinds to down to a Singularity, so be it. And, really, at this point there are no good endgames. Here are some possibilities.

Junta
It’s possible that the only thing that will keep America together is the military. This is so alien to the American tradition that things would really, really have to get bad. But the military is the lone institution that commands the respect of the general populace, so it may be the only thing that keeps the country together long term.

“Wayward Sisters, Part In Peace”
In this scenario, there is a peaceful division of the country alone political lines on a state level. At best, we have some sort of economic union. At worse, the two sides will hate each other at this point that not even that will happen. The real fight will be over which country gets the US “brand.” Otherwise, the Red States will descend into a third world status while the Blue States will continue to grow and prosper.

The Apocalyptic Rock Fight
In this scenario, the division of the country gets out of hand. The two sides begin to drop a-bombs on each other until the entire country in ruin. Eventually one side will graduate to h-bombs and things will really get interesting. I only even suggest this possibility because MAGA is a manifestation of a cancer on the American psyche that is so dark, so depraved that is may swerve into such a bloodlust that, well, there’s no turning back.

Apartheid Era South Africa Meets Modern Venezuela Meets Reconstruction America
In this scenario, we have sort of a dystopian middle ground. Even though the brown of America has happened, white America clings to economic and political power with a death grip. Meanwhile, because of gross corruption, America is finally a third world country with nukes. We’re alone and scared on the world stage. Large swaths of the populace feel completely disenfranchised. Only the poor pay taxes and the rights of women and minorities are harshly repressed. What’s more Blue States are now little more than military districts without any formal representation in Congress.

And, so, that’s it. Those all the endgames I can think of. None of them make me feel good, none of them I want. But the more I think about it, the more it seems there are a few fundimental flaws in the Constitution. Among them the Electoral College and the Senate. But the Senate is so fundamental to the American system that I think that, in itself, means America will soon be a failed state in all but name. In a sense it already is and we’re just deluding ourselves.

In real terms, I guess all we can do is stay aware of what’s happen and try to, on an individual level, make or corner of America a better place. America is over. The end.

Weekend At Bernie’s 3: The Trump White House

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Whatever is wrong with Donald Trump is getting worse. And, yet, because of a combination of the Overton Window and the cult of personality associated with Trump, I don’t see any end game that involves Trump leaving office any time before Jan. 20th, 2025.

But we are definitely in a new era when it comes to the Trump Administration. When Trump looked up at the sun and called himself “The chosen one,” that brought the issue of his mental health to the forefront. The reason why the Muller Report freaked MAGA out so much was it was something they could not easily dismiss. Mueller was widely seen as an objective third party and had he done what we all believed he would do — indict the president or his son — they would face a real existential crisis.

That obviously did not happen. And, so, if it was anyone else in Trump’s position, they could shore up power and cruise into a second term of gutting the “administrative state,” bankrupting the nation and ruining the environment in peace. But now that Trump is slowly creeping towards being demonstrably mentally unwell, MAGA thought leaders again find themselves with a topic they would rather not talk about. Because they actually LIKE the cruel un-American policies of the Trump Administration, arguing with them about them is a moot point. In large part because they’re fucking racists, it’s not like you’re going to change their minds.

So what we all thought Mueller would do to Trump, Trump may do to himself. We aren’t there yet, but we’re slowly edging towards a situation where everyone is talking about how bonkers Trump is except for MAGA talking heads. Why Trump’s deteriorating mental state is so dangerous to the MAGA cause is as of right now, no one seems to be ready to step in an establish a Regency, even in private. So there’s a chance that there never will be one and Trump could, in fact, conspicuously lose his mind in some manner and the nation would have no recourse. Too many powerful, wealthy people have a vested interest in Trump staying president — even in an incapacitated way — and as such they will do everything in their power to keep him right where he is.

Really, the only thing that has subtly changed is it’s far more difficult for people to say they take Trump “seriously, but no literally.” I would compare Trump looking up at the sun and calling himself “The chosen one” as similar to when Jimmy Carter gave his famous “malaise” speech. That changed the mood of the country and set the stage for the Reagan Revolution.

We are now slowly reaching a crisis point. The crisis could be something like this: Trump finally loses his mind and instead of impeaching him over being a criminal and traitor, the House impeaches him over his tweets. This would give them plenty of opportunities to have shrinks testify that Trump is a threat to the country and should be removed. Things get a little surreal at this point in that if Trump really goes off the deep end, there’s a greater than zero chance that the Senate might actually convict him. The only reason this might happen is because it would position Pence to run not once, but twice for president. And so, there’s a least a chance that Trump will live to fight another day even though he’s completely bonkers. Republicans will continue to support him no matter what while Democrats will continue to delude themselves that he will “self-impeach.”

So, having said all that, for what I propose to happen, there would have to be a crisis. It would have to happen really quick and in a conspicuous manner. His ultimate downfall would be in days, not weeks or months. The entire country would have to be in shock at how bad things had gotten. It would have to be 9/11 levels of crisis. Otherwise, nothing happens. Trump coasts into a second term and we have four years of a very ineffective Regency. If it takes too long to fix, Trump can simply start a war with Iran and by the time we get around to remembering Trump being insane he has set the stage for someone like Tom Cotton to take over in 2025.

The reason I say all of this is Trump is an avatar for systemic cancer in American society. An alliance of plutocrats, Russians, misogynists evangelicals, gun nuts, racists and morons have an absolute interest in things staying just the way they are, no matter what. Even if the economy tanks, the Russians will hack the election, or Trump will bribe or bully individual Electors. And then there will be no political will to do anything about it, just like there’s no political will to do anything about Trump now.

It’s a great tragedy that the only if the president completely loses his mind in a spectator fashion will there even be a hint of the political will to get rid of him. And then that sets up Pence being president for over eight years and things just go from bad to worse.

I don’t know what to tell you folks. I guess turn out the light, the party’s over.

We Need To Talk About Trump’s Declining Mental Facilities

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

We are in a new era.

The first era of the Trump Administration was the period of time between the firing of James Comey and Mueller’s testimony before Congress. If Trump was not completely unqualified either in temperament or managerial abilities he probably would coast to an an easy re-election. He would simply be the precursor to his inevitable younger, more focused fascist successor.

And, yet, the recent 35 minute press conference where he rambled about American Jews not being loyal and said he was “The Chosen One” is a new era for him and his administration. Now that we’re not thinking about Mueller bringing Trump down, it’s beginning to sink in that Trump is not well mentally.

It’s only going to get worse, too.

At this point, the issue is does Trump lose it publicly or privately. If he loses it privately, we probably will never know that he’s catatonic in his bed. All his tweets will be written by someone pretending to be him. And the powerful people who crave his sweet, sweet authoritarian rule will figure out a way to fake him actually being cognizant. Only long after his second term is over will we learn that it was all a lie and Trump lost his mind.

That’s kind of the best case scenario for the Russians and MAGA plutocrats who want to drive America into a ditch and shit all over it. If Trump is giving a speech and he goes Howard Beale on us, that would be a different matter altogether. For a president to go completely bonkers is not something any of us is prepared for. It would cause a 9/11 level of crisis in the American government.

The crux of the issue is our best bet is some sort of informal Regency would be created. It’s not like we’re ever going to get rid of Trump, so he could quite literally go batshit insane on live TV and nothing of note would happen to him. There just isn’t the political will and America is just too divided.

That’s all I got, folks. But maybe this worst case scenario won’t happen. Maybe Trump will just be somewhat addled for the next few years. Maybe he’ll go the Reagan route and finish up his term, get to pick his successor and America will finally be a true fascist state.

Lulz!

The Electoral College Is A Fatal Flaw In The American Constitutional System

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

A recent Federal court ruling says individual Electors are free agents. So, in real terms, the only thing stopping them from voting for whomever the wish is their personal affinity for the party they represent.

Given that Electors are pretty much just average people, it is inevitable that a faithless Elector — or two — is going to put a spanner into the democratic process sooner rather than later. Given how divided America is, I don’t see this problem being fixed any time soon, no matter what happens.

So, I could see Trump losing the 2020 election only to win the Electoral College because he personally doxed them all. I could see the entire Republican Party attacking individual after the actual popular vote to such an extent that the whole thing is at least thrown into the House where Republicans probably would have a decent shot of winning.

The whole nation being divided thing makes it almost impossible to get rid of the Electoral College long after it’s proven to be a fatal flaw in our entire Constitutional system. In fact, the only way I could see any reform on the matter is if the Electoral College went rouge en masse. If someone who wasn’t from either one of the major parties won, then I think both sides would suddenly have a reason to work together to fix the issue.

Now, the one thing about the power of the Electoral College is it’s a lot like quantum physics. The actual use of the human being that make up the Electoral College to stymie the will of the people is so profound that there’s no way of knowing what would happen. Legally, we’re stuck with whomever the Electoral College picks. That’s it. Once they vote, that’s the president. The only exception is a tie, whereby it goes to the House where the states vote by delegation. Each state gets only one vote.

The average person is simply not prepared for what would happen if the Electoral College went rouge. I don’t have an easy answer for what the reaction would be. Really, the only bright spot of saying Electors are free agents is you never know when that might come in handy. The Electoral system is so bad in modern terms that there are a few scenarios one could think up whereby you might want free agent Electors. One is the idea the Russians might brazenly hack the election in 2020. If they do so in a really brazen fashion, the idea that Electors might vote for who _actually_ won once we looked into things is at least something to make you feel a little better.

But I just don’t see the 2020 election being normal. In fact, I think it is probably going to be the last proof we need that the United States is no longer a democracy. In the end, I’m afraid, no matter what the popular vote, Trump will be sworn in for a second term

A surreal combination of demographics, power and money make it nearly inevitable that until something really wild happens, we’re going to have autocratic Republican presidents for the next few decades. The America that I grew up in is gone. We’re now much like the Roman Empire in its early days when it refused to accept that it was, in fact, an empire.

Republicans are going to remake America at last. In fact, I would go so far as to say the only thing that may save us is the apolitical nature of the US Military. It may be that a junta has to step in at some point. That may, in fact, be the only thing that keeps the country together in the end. Otherwise, the country is going to split apart — peacefully or otherwise.

An Op-Ed I Wrote

Shelton Bumgarner

I got mad about something similar — but with the opposite political views — I saw on Facebook and so this is what happened.

This is what prompted my anger.

And this is my response.

Trump Loses The Country (?)

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The conditions are there for our long Trump nightmare to end. Sorta. I say this knowing full well that the election is eons away in political terms and Trump is unlikely to go peacefully, if at all.

But lets do a quick run through of why it’s at least _possible_ Trump may find the obstacles to re-election insurmountable.

People Really Want To Vote
This, if nothing else, should concern Team Trump. The Trump strategy is to so rile up the base, make them so absolute in their devotion to him, that on election day they will simply have the sheer numbers in real terms to get him over the line. This is a risky strategy because while you’re so busy thinking about the base, you ignore how angry you’re making the majority of everyone else.

It Appears The Economy Is Slowing
This is probably the most significant threat. While his base would not care if he started a nuclear war, 60% of the electorate might. And for a lot of those people who generally don’t care about politics, if a recession hits between now and November 2020, they might begin to take notice.

The Mood Of The Country Is Shifting
This is the most nebulous of metrics. The only thing I can compare it to is the how different the early Carter Administration was to the later Carter Administration. A president sets the tone of his era. As such, by the third year in office, America is a reflection of him. As I understand it, this is not going well for Trump. The very things Trump harps on — immigration and free trade — people are beginning to disagree with him on. So, if anything, that’s a sign that his “base first” strategy is not working the way he may have thought.

Now, I still believe Trump is going to win re-election with absolute certainty. The reason I say this is: populists don’t lose. Add to this Trump will be a caged animal at any hint he might lose and I just don’t see him going down without a fight so angry, so politically damaging that he may leave a historically bad taste in everyone’s minds. Here’s why I just don’t see him losing, despite signs that he might.

The Entire System Protects A Presidential Incumbent.
While there used to be an ebb and flow to presidential history, that is not the case anymore. Since Bill Clinton, if you are elected, you stay in office for 8 years. So, while Trump is historically bad at his job, I just don’t see him losing. While Republicans will spooge their pants, I would suggest they temper that sentiment. Second terms are historically bad for presidents. Given what a bad president Trump is, there’s a real chance that having escaped impeachment his first term, he may not be so lucky in his second. Also, it takes time for leaders to bubble up in the opposition. So by the time Trump’s six years in, there’s a real chance he may finally have met his match. I think it should be Jon Stewart, but that’s just me.

Trump Cheats
I think this is the most dangerous aspect of all of this. Trump is such a fucking drama queen that he will do anything — anything — to stay in office. He is so selfish that he will be willing to bring the entire country down with him if need be. Some of the crazy things I could see him doing are start a war, any war. Go full Nazi. I could see him suspending the election itself should there be a major terrorist attack at any point within three months of it. And, really, the absolute worst of scenario is Trump goes after individual Electors themselves in an attempt to bully them into being faithless. Really, all he needs is just enough of them to be faithless to throw the election into the House.

The Russians & Plutocrats
This is the wildcard. I don’t see either the Russians or the plutocrats who love those sweet, sweet tax cuts allowing Trump to lose. Period. Both of these parties have way too much of a vested interest in Trump to let him be forced out of off. Now if it becomes pretty obvious that Trump lost the election and yet he mysteriously wins the election, we’re in uncharted territory. It would tear the country apart in a way not seen since the Civil War. And, since possession is 9/10th of the law, even if by the time the Electoral College is set to vote it’s been established that the Russians hacked the election — again — I just don’t see Republicans caring. Trump will stay president and after a few months of people being upset we’ll go back to being unhappy. We’ll be told that all the proof of Russian hacking is “fake news” and, besides, the economy is doing well. (Until it isn’t, of course.) There’s always a small chance that if it is absolutely proven that the election was hacked that Electors might go rogue. That, in itself, of course, would cause chaos. Which, of course, is what the Russians want in the first place.

So, Trump’s going to win re-election. All I can say is vote. Vote. Organize. Participate politically as best you can. I do think that if Trump wins re-election that he’s such a horrible person and president that he’s likely to be impeached exclusively for things he did while in office in his second term.

In 2024, of course, the issue will be Trump’s “legacy.” I really have no hope that we’ll ever get rid of Republican presidents for the next 20 years. It won’t be until the youngest of the Baby Boomers begin to die off that things will change. At about the same point the browning of America will kick in and things will begin to change. For the time being, however, we’re screwed.

‘Dystopia in the US’ — #Lyrics To A #Punk Song

Dystopia in the US
lyrics by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
Please give credit if you produce or perform

I live in a dystopia
I’m told lies everyday
by the people in charge

I don’t wanna be
in
the dystopia in the US
the dystopia in the US
the dystopia in the US

we’re better than this
or at least I thought
that’s what I was taught
this shame is going to leave a mark

no going back I’m afraid
they’re going to come for you and me
once they get done crushing the immigrants
gunna make us all live in a cage
it’s all the rage!

I don’t wanna be
in
the dystopia in the US
the dystopia in the US
the dystopia in the US

(bridge)
how did things change so fast
leaving all our hope in the past
now it’s stand and fight
or just be another dog in a cage

I don’t wanna be
in
the dystopia in the US
the dystopia in the US
the dystopia in the US

Some Idle Rambling About The State Of The Novel I’m Writing

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
Insta: WriterShelt

I’m doing a lot of little videos using Instagram about the novel I’m writing. But here are some general thoughts. I’m about 40,000 words in right now and I’ve hit a moment in the early part of the second act where the sheer size of this project has begun to kick in.

I’m giving myself between 165,000 to 185,000 word to tell this story because I’ve been told anything past 200,000 won’t get published. The interesting thing is I finally am at a point in the novel where I rant about the Trump Era.

The entire novel is meant to be an indictment of the Trump Era disguised as a spy thriller. I’m really enjoying writing this novel. It’s just managing dates, characters and themes is tough when you’re doing it all in your head. I think once I finally finish the first draft things should move a lot faster. I’ll have the first draft to use as a stepping stone.

I have come up with a lot of ad hoc ways to manage development and writing, but none of them has come into any formal role yet. Again, I’m hoping it’s just a matter of time. In a sense, the novel is kind of Network if it was written as an homage to the Millennium series by way of James Bond.

Sorta.

There’s also a lot of Being There in this novel because it’s meant to be a snapshot in time. A time capsule of the few first years of the Trump Administration. Or, if you want to get rather dystopian — of the first Trump Administration.

I just have a lot — a lot — of work to do. A huge amount. It doesn’t help that I have no idea what I’m doing. I’m probably doing everything wrong. But the point is to finish something, anything that I can edit.

I have to believe in myself. That’s the chief thing at this point. I have to keep going. I have a really great conceit. It’s just a matter of fleshing it out over the course of nearly 200,000 words.

Wish me luck.