Tag: TrumpUkraine

V-Log: A Deep Dive Into Our #TrumpUkraine Political Clusterfuck

Shelton Bumgarner

Some thoughts.

Things May About To Get Extremely Surreal Politically

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Occasionally, I have brief flashes in my mind of a post-Trump Era that doesn’t involve America devolving into Trumplandia. For a brief second, I see America in which House Trump is no longer ascendant. Maybe Tucker Carlson or Tom Cotton may be waiting in the wings to fuck everything up again, but for a moment, at least, America isn’t run by a lawless tyrant.

I doubt this situation would last very long, but for a few months, at least, maybe America might right its ship of state. The thing is, if this were to actually happen, we would look back on the Trump Era in awe. The whole thing is such a catrastrophic culsterfuck that it’s difficult to comprehend that it really did, in fact happen.

There are reasons why this repsite would likely be counted in days or weeks, not even months. The shock of House Trump losing power in some spectator fashion would strike the country totally unprepared. If the mythical Pence Pivot actually did happen the tectonic forces that would be unleashed would be awe inspiring. What’s a personality cult without its personality ? Trump is likely to push positions on both sides as he goes down to some really astonishing extremes. So much so that a lot of pretty prominent MAGA talking heads might have overnight conversions to politics a little less crackpot. If it happened, it would be probably the most astonishing political event of my lifetime. You don’t live a political lie so publically for so long without there being consequences with the normal world snaps back into place.

If you really wanted to drop acid, if somehow even Pence left office abruptly for political reasons, President Nancy Pelosi would have her hands full. Though it would probably make everyone pop a gasket, ideally she would pardon Trump and Pence and vow not to run for the nomination in 2020.

But the idea that not only both Trump and Pence would be pushed out before the 2020 election is, at this point, so completely ridiculous given available datapoints that it’s comical. The Republican field would probably be as big as the Democrat field is right now. Of course the biggest fascist would win and we’d have to fight tooth and nail to prevent Trump from happening all over again in 2020.

In all honesty, I refuse to get my hopes up. The DNI will testify on Thursday, we’ll have a repeat of Mueller’s testimony and darkness will gradually fall on the nation I love so much.

A Funny Thing May Happen On The Way To Iowa #TrumpUkraine

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

First, let me say for the record that I’m almost always wrong. I speculate a lot, but that’s more a matter of me liking to daydream than any sort of special insight. So, in a sense, it’s likely I’m wrong again.

And, yet, because of the brazen nature of Trump’s criminal behavior with Ukraine, it seems to me that anyone who continues to talk about how we’re just going to beat Trump in 2020 like we beat him in 2018 is missing the forest for the trees.

So far, the only thing that makes this particular scandal different is the intensity of the outrage associated with it has lasted just a little bit longer than normal. And, in a sense, that might be more a function of the media needing to hype the DNI’s testimony on Thursday. I would suggest everyone hold off on 2020 horse race hot takes until at least the hearing takes place.

In all likelihood, the hearing’s going to be a dud, just like Mueller’s. Trump and MAGA get to crow about all the lies of the “lamestream media” and that will be that. In that case, I just don’t see how there’s going to be a free and fair election. I’ve gotten some pushback on my belief that autocratic populists always win. My reponse is the Electoral College is a uniquely American feature of our election process. Democrats could easily win the popular vote, only to lose the Electoral College because of any number of different skullduggery techniques by House Trump.

There’s a tiny chance that the entire march to the Iowa Caucuses could be thrown for a loop. There’s at least a greater-than-zero chance that some pretty speculator political events could take place between now and early 2020. I have my doubts because, well, Trump has a cult of personality. And, yet, for the time being, I have a nagging, lingering feeling that it’s a least possible all these people telling us that this or that person will benefit from not impeaching Trump…may….have…their plans scrambled.

But, in all likelihood, Trump is fine. This will all fizzle out like it always does and darkness will fall.

Why The #TrumpUkraine Scandal Is Different

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Trump has generated numerous sizable scandals over the run of his administration to date. To date, either they explode for about a 24 hour period, or they gradually fade from view as people process what happened. The most recent scandal, TrumpUkraine, is different for one important reason — it’s existential.

Any outcome will mark a watershed in modern American politics. It doesn’t matter what happens, we will have entered a new era. If it goes as expected and after the acting DNI testifies before Congress on Thursday all the energy for impeachment fizzles out, then Trump will be even more brazen in his corrupt, criminal behavior. If this is dismissed as just another scandal trumped up by liberals with Trump Derangement Disorder, then there will not be a free and fair election in 2020. Not even close. It’s going to be pretty perfunctory.

There really will be no stopping Trump at that point. He will be above the law. The Constitution won’t really even be in effect anymore. That’s the most likely outcome. I would give it about a 99% likelihood. Republicans have no shame and Democrats have no courage.

But, just for fun, let’s imagine things don’t quite go that way. If instead of all the momentum for impeachment abruptly vanishing like during the later part of the Muller Report situation, what if the pressure to somehow miraculously increases. If the issue of the complaint itself being released becomes the focal point, then I would imagine all those young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench would slow walk it. That would be their way of effectively making impeachment a moot point. The impeachment investigation would dwindle over the months of the case bouncing around the court system and Trump uses the levers of power to win reelection. Sometime in the middle of his second term it goes to SCOTUS and he wins. Again, game over.

That scenario is also far more likely than the good guys winning. But let’s, just for fun again, imagine that somehow it doesn’t get slow walked. Imagine that it actually bounces around the Judiciary pretty quick. Then, again, any decision would be significant. If SCOTUS sides with Trump, then darkness falls.

But if somehow SCOTUS shocks us all and rules again Trump, then that would be the final endgame. As I’ve said before, this is not 1974 and Trump’s not Nixon. Trump would rather destroy the Constitution than turn over the complaint. So, he ignores the ruling and the Senate won’t convict him. Ta-da. Again, darkness falls.

If somehow the Senate did convict him — which it would not, never — then we have a 9/11 level crisis while we wait to evict Trump from the Oval Office. He will never leave if he was somehow convicted. We will have to physically remove him.