There is a lot of talk about a civil war in the United States these days, but I think that says more about how the country is on edge than any real prospect of such a violent event. Whenever a country is veering towards a significant change in its political system, there is talk of civil war. And, by definition, that’s sort of what an “anocracy” — which is what the United States is now — is: we’re transitioning away from democracy into an autocracy.
According to Barbara F. Walter, that’s one of the causes of a civil war — if a country in between democracy and autocracy the country is so unstable that if things go wrong, it descends into political violence up to and including an actual civil war.
But, for the moment, I just don’t see the United States have a civil war. There will be a huge amount of chatter from both political extremes about there possibly being one, but, in the end, the American center-Left is just to weak willed. In the end, Blue States will bend a knee to MAGA fascists. Hordes of wealthy American liberals will flee the country to the point that Fox News will replace scary brown caravans at the border with the “brain drain.” So many wealthy American liberals may flee the newly autocratic States that it transforms global culture in a way not seen since the fall of Constantinople. The globe will be awash in American culture and ideals in an unprecedented manner.
All of this, of course, may be happening in the context of the final collapse of the post-WW2 liberal global order. If the United States pulls itself out of NATO and various other places around the world, then a number of regional wars will break out to the point that it will be marketed as WW3. America could align itself with a series of other autocratic states. I could see, maybe, the US, Hungary, Turkey and Russia starting their own NATO-like alliance. Meanwhile, of course, China could do a smash and grab operation against Taiwan.
But the key issue is — we just don’t know what is going to happen. At the moment, the idea of political violence in the United States is totally bonkers. As such, something pretty big would have to change for the type of civil war that I imagine might happen, to happen. I will admit, of course, that the conditions are there for a civil war.
And, yet, I don’t know. Given that it’s probably going to be Blues who start a civil war if there is one, I just don’t see it happening. There is, of course, the issue of Trump. He’s such a malignant dignus that he could, unto himself, start a civil war.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
Trump is a very unique historical and political figure. He’s so unique because almost anyone else in his position would not have lost the 2020 election. Anyone with a modicum of abstract thought and gumption would have sealed the deal at some point no later than, say, August 2020.
It’s a testament to how stupid and lazy and Trump is that he waited until the very, very, very last part of the process to try to stay in power. And, what’s more, his entire plot rested on one man — Mike Pence — doing his bidding. He didn’t really have much of a backup plan.
Anyway, the reason why I bring all this up is I — and a lot of other people — are notorious for overestimating Trump’s ability to actually implement all the tyrannical things he obviously is thinking about all the time. So, take the following with a grain of salt — it’s possible that Trump neither has the power I’m assuming he does nor has the mental facilities necessary to think in such a diabolical manner.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
Having said all that, I don’t think we’re going to have any sort of civil war. I think Blue states will ultimately bend a knee and we will become a MAGA autocracy. The only question then, of course, will be if we stop around Hungary politically, or if we endup somewhere closer to be a Russia / Nazi Germany clone.
Only time will tell. Good luck.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.
I don’t know anything about anything. I’m often, if not usually, wrong. But here, nonetheless, is my hot take on the question of the moment — “Will Trump be indicted?”
No. I don’t think he will be. I think, in the end, this will be just another Bad Thing that is baked into the cake when it comes to Trump. I say this because it’s clear that Republicans have done a gut check and since the base is fired up about what happend — and not in a good way — they have decided to hunker down and cling to Trump even tighter.
Now, remember, Trump is a very complex historical figure because not only is he just an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage, he also refuses to get out of the way to DeSantis can finish the job he started. What’s more, even if he did get out of the way, then, like I said, we’re doomed in a different way. DeSantis (or someone like him) will become America’s first autocrat and that will be that. We’ll wake up in 20 years and wonder why DeSantis is still president. We’ll also wonder why we have to use VPN to watch the BBC talk about how horrible things are in the United States.
The other alternative, obviously, is civil war. And if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee then the likelihood of a National Divorce grows dramatically because he always says the “quiet part out loud.” He will cheat to win the 2024 election, even if he doesn’t have to. Trump is such a chaos agent that there are not one but three ways he could start a civil war.
If he got indicted, I could totally see him go transactional and demand Red states begin the process of leaving the Union. Texas’ autocratic state government already talks like it has one foot out the door as it is. Just by calling up a Secessionist Convention, Texas would spook the Federal government to the point that they would ultimately shy away from doing anything with Trump criminally.
Meanwhile, there remains the lingering possibility that Trump will demand to be the Speaker of the House should Republicans take Congress in the fall. Even though I’m notorious for overestimating Trump’s mental abilities, even with his political grunt tendencies, I could see him use the threat of Red States leaving the Union as a bludgeon against Blue Senators when the inevitable impeachment trials of Biden and Harris happen.
The third way Trump might personally start a Second American Civil War would be as part of the 2024 presidential cycle. Either he so brazenly steals the election that Blue States begin to leave the Union or his second term agenda is so radical that that, unto itself, is enough to push Blue states — starting with California — out of the Union.
So, no, I don’t think Trump will be held accountable in any way for stealing America’s top secrets. We’re careening towards a very, very dark fate of either civil war or autocracy and this particular severe crisis will be just among the top five or so worst things Trump has done since 2015.
The case can be made that if Biden frames the 2022 elections in as start as terms as possible — fascism versus democracy — that we might see an unexpected upset in November. I have extremely low expectations at the moment. And I’ve already begun to game out how dark the period between January 2023 and January 2025 will be in the United States.
We all may be anti-fascist soon enough.
But if we can somehow hold the line against the rising tide of MAGA tyranny, then we will definitely be in a little bit of a better position going into the massive clusterfuck that will be the 2024 election cycle. I can not impress upon you enough how potentially dramatic and violent the 2024 presidential cycle might be. I just don’t see it being a free and fair election because the entire point of the Republican Party at this point is to steal the 2024 election. That’s all they want. All they want is to establish an autocracy in the United States. And all they have to do is gain power once — once! — and that’s it.
The key issue to remember is we can’t punt the existential crisis America faces down the road anymore. Everything is coming to a head in late 2024, early 2025. By definition, if a Republican wins in 2024, we’re going to go down the path of autocracy. If we’re lucky, we settle somewhere around Hungary or Turkey. If we’re not so lucky, we endup somewhere between Russia and Nazi Germany.
Things are really that dire.
Barring a Unity Ticket for 2024, however, I do think that if Biden begins to articulate why the MAGA New Right is old school fascism, that that will really help to clarify in the minds of voters an general unease they probably are feeling already about the extremism of the Republican MAGA New Right.
Things are so volatile when it comes to the Republican Party, even if Democrats were able to miraculously win the 2024 election fair and square Republicans probably would either steal the election or grow extremely violent. What happen on January 6th would pale in comparison to the amount of violence we will see if Republicans lose — or aren’t able to successfully steal the 2024 eletion.
Those motherfuckers really are out for blood, I’m afraid.
First, let me be very clear — I just don’t see the United States having a Second Civil War. All the talk about one says more about how on edge the nation is as we transition into an autocracy. Talk of civil war is part of the transition into an autocracy. It happened with Germany when the Nazis took over and it’s happening today as the fascist MAGA are ascendant.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
And, yet, since there is a greater-than-zero chance that there might be a Second American Civil War, let me give you my reasoning why it will be Blues, not Reds who start it should it happen.
First and foremost, MAGA is politically ascendant. As part of that, they are doing everything in their power to sabotage American democracy in sort of a slow moving coup that, if successful, would cause the United States to turn into an autocracy through the corruption of the administration of elections. And, what’s more, if SCOTUS approves the dubious legal concept of “independent legislatures” the coup will be complete. MAGA state legislatures will be given free reign to completely ignore the will of the people if necessary to make sure a MAGA presidential candidate wins.
So, the theory of the case by civil war expert Barbara F. Walter is this: MAGA no longer believes in American democracy and they see themselves as “real” America to the point that they will become something like Colombia’s FARC and start to blow shit up around the country on a regular basis because they hold Blues in such distain.
Now, there is some merit to this idea — she is the expert, after all. But it also misses the point. Political tradition in the United States would suggest that if we’re going to do something as dramatic as a “National Divorce” it will be at the state level and it will have a thin veneer of legalism to it. While, yes, it’s very possible that between now and January 2025 there will be a significant increase in political violence across the country. That’s a real possibility and I can see how that might be marketed as a “civil war.”
And, yet.
It seems me that no matter which side demands a “National Divorce,” Blue or Red, it will be initiated at the state level. Doing so would give any effort to have a National Divorce the basic building blocks of a nation. Government. Military. Leadership. Taxation. It just doesn’t make any sense to me that we would collapse into anarchy — even though it definitely feels as though we’re doing just that at times.
There is a real possibility that if Trump feels he is going to get indicted and potentially go to prison, that he will demand Red states leave the Union to put pressure on the Federal government to lay off. He’s so bonkers at this point that anything is possible. But as I keep saying, from what I’m reading of Hitler and his ascent there’s a huge different between he and Trump — Hitler was willing to use violence, to go transactional to get his aims.
Trump, meanwhile, is so lazy and such a wussy that he’s only gone transactional once and that was January 6th. Otherwise, Trump has been all talk and violent dog whistles. This comes from how Trump is not a historical “Great Man” but rather just an avatar, a vessel for white Christian autocratic rage. And, in a strange way, this part of Trump’s personality has given us a little bit a breathing room that we would not have otherwise if Trump was more like Hitler.
So, barring Trump going transactional and demanding Red states leave the Union to save his own ass, I think if we have a civil war it’s going to happen in late 2024, early 2025.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
How’s that for a New World Order.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.
For a number of years, since 2015, we’ve been trying to “get” Trump for any number of alarming things. And, every time, to date, he’s managed to escape because of what I call the “Stormy Daniels Playbook.” This Trump “floods the zone” with bullshit long enough for Republican leaders to touch base with MAGA voters and realize that they do, in fact, still support Trump. As such, to date, at least, Trump has known that trying to hold him accountable is much like trying to get any sort of sensible gun control passed after 20 little kids are murdered.
Trump just wants us to get past the shock of whatever the bad thing he did. Once we are able to get past the cognitive dissidence of him paying off a porn star right before an election, or making a “perfect call” to get dirt on Joe Biden, or separating families at the border…he wins. The MAGA base has such absolute fidelity to Trump on a political basis that there is never a point where the people in Republican leadership demand Trump leave the public sphere.
Here are some reasons why we may have a civil war over and above the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
The Stormy Daniels Playbook has served Trump very, very well since at least the Access Hollywood Tape and, as such, it’s inevitably the thing he leans into the moment he realizes whatever it is he’s done wrong isn’t just a PR problem but a Big Boy Crime.
And so, we find ourselves with yet another Big Boy Crime that Trump has committed — espionage. This is so serious that two extreme things of equal value are now careening towards each other at an alarming rate. The absolute fidelity of MAGA to Trump is rushing towards the absolute need for the Justice Department to finally, finally hold Trump accountable for something so absolutely bad that it’s inexcusable, even for political reasons.
We all may be Antifa soon.
As such, if we really do “catch” Trump this time — which I find extremely unlikely — literally anything can happen. I fear we’re underestimating not only the fanatical fidelity to dingus Trump MAGA has, but how unstable the country is in general. To me, it seems the key issue is — if Trump, in a panic, demanded Red States leave the Union in his usual dog whistle way, would they actually call secessionist conventions?
Is that even really within the realm of possibility?
I honestly don’t know at the moment. I do think a state like Texas might do it if Trump demanded it, then once that began to happen, all eyes would turn to South Carolina to see if they would be the one to actually be the first to do it. And, yet, because of race, there’s a chance that some sort of extra legal method would have to be used in South Carolina if that state wanted to leave the Union. But I could maybe see Texas, South Carolina, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi begin to seriously consider leaving the Union if Trump began to rant about this possibility because he was actually going to be held accountable. There are a number of other Red States that would probably leave the Union as well, but those are just the ones that I thought of off the top of my head.
Florida would be would be a very interesting situation because Ron DeSantis would have to figure out if he wanted to risk destroying his very viable path to being America’s first autocrat to playing second fiddle in the new state of Trumplandia.
All of that is very fantastical. I think, in the end, Trump is going to get away with even espionage. We’re going to punt this grievous, severe crisis down the road until 2024 -2025 and it will be Blue States who have to do a gut check about if they want to bend a knee to dingus Trump or not.
Good luck.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
The last few days’ news on the Top Secrets at Mar-a-Lago front definitely indicate that things are coming to an alarming head soon. And we, as a nation, are going to have to confront the very real possibility that either Trump is let off the hook somehow or he’s indicted and he probably starts a civil war in an effort to protect himself personally.
Now, I can’t predict the future. But I do know that a lot of MAGA Republicans, maybe the majority of them, want to own the Libs and the “woke cancel culture mob” so much that they are willing to protect Trump, even if he was literally selling American secrets to the Saudis, Russians or North Koreans. There is going to come a point where they cross the Rubicon when it comes to even being willing to sacrifice their lives in the name of that malignant orange dingus.
And maybe this particular scandal is, unto itself, the thing that causes that to happen. The MAGA faithful do a gut check and they realize that Trump engaging in espionage is really just another thing they have to accept and rationalize away in the name of establishing as white Christian autocratic ethnostate. You know things aren’t going swell for your Republic when you realize that even if you did somehow neutralize Trump, there are a dozen other would be autocrats willing to jump in and finish the job Trump started.
And that, really, is kind of the political quandary we find ourselves in. Trump has accomplished his political and historical duty of being a transitional figure as we slide into autocracy. The problem is, of course, is Trump refuses to get out of the way and, as such, he grows more and more unstable and the country as a whole careens towards a very dark fate.
The reason is — if the Justice Department finds itself absolutely forced to hold Trump accountable and indicts him, I honestly have no idea how bad things could get. To date, Trump has not gone transactional outside of one speech right before the January 6th Insurrection. But if Trump honestly felt there was a real chance he would not only get indicted but booked and ultimately have a court trial he could really go crazy and start insinuating some pretty insane things. Everything from demanding Red States begin the process of leaving the Union to even maybe some sort of deranged demand that a Second Constitutional Convention be called. (Remember, given precedent, it’s very likely that MAGA state legislatures would name the members of any such convention and, by definition, it would go rouge and codify MAGA into any new Constitution.
What makes this particular situation with Trump so unqiue is it’s very, very serious and Trump isn’t POTUS anymore so he can’t hide behind the “only way you can do anything about me is impeachment” defense. Things are so bad that there is even a growing choirs of people who want Biden to pardon Trump over this matter for “the sake of the nation.” As I’ve written before, the only way I would ever support such a thing is if Trump, in exchange, agreed retire from political life.
Anyway, it’s at least possible that the moment of truth when it comes to Trump is upon us. If we ultimately we STILL don’t have the political will to do anything about Trump, then the next fork in the road will be at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. Either Trump and MAGA brazenly steal the 2024 election to the point that Blue States begin to leave the Union, or he wins out right and his second administration agenda is so radical that we definitely might have a 1860 type situation on our hands where Blues, seeing what Reds have in store for the country decide to preemptively bounce, causing a National Divorce and a civil war.
Or, put another way, the United States is so unstable at the moment that Trump getting a very well deserved indictment could be the catalyst that destroys the country. Or, if maybe not “destroys” it, definitely changes it in the sense that the National Divorce that I think Blues will do would be caused early by Reds. America is so bad politically at the moment that I don’t know if it will be Reds or Blues who ultimately demand a National Divorce.
I’m not VOX. I have no idea what to tell you. There are no easy solutions. Get out of the country? Invest in gold? Or maybe just figure out what you’re willing to suffer for and go from there. That’s one thing you’re going to need in the real world going forward, no matter what happens.
Trump is like America’s UTI that is always just about on the cusp of going septic and nearly killing us. The key issue is that Trump is nothing more than a vessel, an avatar for the rage of white Christian (men) about the changing nature of the United States. A lot of it, obviously, has to do with the white Birth Dearth, but that is the subject of a different post.
But it is very clear to me — and others — that the issue at the moment is that one of the two major American parties believes that, by definition, Trump is like the fucking Pope — infallible. What’s more he’s not just infallible, but he’s above the law to the point that by definition any law he breaks is invalid. and subject to attack.
It’s so bad that MAGA, which purports to be all about “law and order” goes after the FBI of all things, just because they are doing their jobs and trying to enforce laws. Of course, as others have mentioned, the issue is MAGA wants order but no law. That’s the crux of autocracy — that laws are applied only when in service of the overall goals of the autocrat.
MAGA is so absolutely devoted to dingus Trump that they are totally prepared to burn the county to the ground in order to protect him. It is difficult, at this point, not to believe that MAGA wants something akin to an Americanized version of Nazi Germany. They want a nation of blood and soil where the Leadership Principle of Der Fuhrer means whatever Trump wants, he gets. I still struggle a great deal to figure out what about Trump is so appealing to MAGA. Reading about Hitler, I can kind of “get” why he was able to take over Germany in the wake of WW1. But Trump, I still don’t understand.
He is so stupid and lazy that it’s difficult to understand why anyone, regardless of education or class would give a shit what he has to say. And, yet, here we are with millions of people — some of whom should know better — who are waiting with baited breath for Trump’s second, far more radical term.
And, in the end, I again have to say that we face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. We’re either going to become something of a political clone of Russia (the DeSantis option) or we have a civil war (the Trump endgame.) There is absolutely no middle ground. It just doesn’t exist. You have to pick a side and if you call yourself a “centrist” at this point, you’re really complicit in the rise of American Nazism (MAGA)
Trump, as a political entity, is an extremely dangerous flaw in our political system. He is so weird and apt to do anything to save his own skin that he could literally, unto himself, cause the end of the United States as we’ve known it for close to 250 years.
I have no solutions. I have no idea what to do. I guess get ready.
These are the twilight days of Pax Americana. The lives of millions of everyday people all over the world are about to change in a rather dramatic fashion one way or another. I say this because no matter what, the current situation we live in is too unstable and is going to break either into autocracy or civil war. There is no middle ground. Pick a side or a side will be chosen for you.
So, if America was a stock, I would short it.
I’m not writing this for VOX, so I’m not smart enough or smug enough to be able to write an explainer as to how to prepare yourself for the coming Great Reset or Fourth Turning. All I know is we’re totally and completely fucked.
I suppose if I was a normal person, I would begin to prepare for departure from the United States. I would try to go back to being an expat somewhere, maybe somewhere in Southeast Asia. But, alas, that’s just not an option. So, I’m going to have to ride the pony to the bottom and see where it leads me.
It definitely seems as though at some point between now and January 2025 there is going to be a Great Reset or Fourth Turning. It could be very subtle as America slides into autocracy or it could be VERY DRAMATIC as Blue States begin to leave the Union as part of a National Divorce. But the crux of the issue is — America is very, very unstable. Like, France right before the French Revolution unstable.
It’s just difficult for one to grasp in an abstract manner what’s going on because the macro forces at work are so enormous.
The recent murder of Darya Dugin has caused a series of curious events in Russia. As I understand it, the Russians are now claiming that she was murdered by a Ukrainian spy who escaped to Estonia. Or something like that. I’m too lazy to look up the specifics to be sure.
Anyway, all of this gives me pause for thought because if the Russians are pointing fingers at both Estonia and Ukraine, things could go down a very dark path pretty quick. And, what really concerns me at the moment is the United States is so existentially divided — and the fucking fascist Republicans love Russia so much — that I don’t know if the United States is prepared to properly address any military action on the part of the Russians should such a thing happen.
I mean, is the United States prepared to go toe-to-toe with Russia if they decide to attack NATO member Estonia? Republicans love autocracy and Russia so much that after the initial shock wore off, the two sides would each go back into their echo chambers to the point that Biden wouldn’t be able to get the country on the same page as to what to do.
Or, put another way, the United States is so divided and so weak right now that we don’t have the political will to fully serve our purpose as the core of the post WW2 liberal order. And, in all honesty, the only thing that gives me any hope about this particular situation is Russia is so weak — especially after its on-going military debacle in Ukraine — that for the time being all this talk of going after Estonia or Ukraine is just that. Talk.
Russia has been proven to be so weak that they couldn’t do anything with Estonia even if they wanted to. Of course, you could say that Putin is no longer a rational actor and, as such, he might do something as bonkers as attack a NATO member over make up charges. Then my fears of a very divided America would be put to the test.
What I mean by all of this is America is so fucked up right now that there would be no assurances that we summon up the will to defend the free world from Russian aggression if it came to that. I say this especially in the context of the possibility that the fucking fascist Republicans might soon take the House again (at least).
If Russia attacked Estonia and the United States couldn’t get its act together enough to defend it properly in the context of Article 5 of NATO then it would principate the total collapse of the barely-hanging on post-WW2 liberal order. We would be thrown into a level of international chaos not seen since the Interwar period.
Let’s just hope the Russians don’t test America to see if it can still do the right thing, even if it wanted to.
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