Tag: Fuck MAGA Fuck Trump

When To Panic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When should you panic when it comes to my dystopian predictions about the “Fourth Turning” being the existential choice of civil war or autocracy?

Second American Civil War
In some ways, this one is pretty obvious — there would be a catalyst that started the process of a states doing something akin to secession that would spark an event that we would refer to as “the Second American Civil War.” So, in a sense, you would know something was happening.

But at the same time, here are some metrics that would re-enforce the idea that the “Fourth Turning” of a civil war is about to happen. One is, Red people in Blue States and Blue people in Red states would begin to flee to states with politics that fit their personal views. This would be extremely dramatic. There are about 335 million Americans and if there was panic domestic political refugee movements it would be astonishing in scope.

Just as this happened, it’s likely New York City would be a massive flash point because a lot of conservative media is physically located there. So, if the United States really was about to buckle into some sort of Trumplandia and rump USA shooting war, it’s very possible that the offices of Fox News and the WSJ would be physically attacked by an angry mob of New Yorkers. Trump Tower, too, could be stormed and gutted.

If you start seeing shit like that — we’re going to have a civil war.

Also, if you start to see radicalization on the part of, say, the talking heads of Today or Good Morning America or NPR — we’re really fucked. Those guys are the last bastions of “everyone stay calm.” If they freak out, then buckle up, we’re fucked.

Another thing that would happen about this time is severe violence on a state government level. There would be coups and counter-coups in states like Oregon, Virginia and Michigan.

One other thing — the draft would come back in a rather abrupt fashion.

Autocracy
The time to panic with autocracy in the United States is when the media is purged. This will happen in a way that the crumbling Establishment goes out of its way to minimize and rationalize.

Then, gradually, in fits and starts any form of protesting will be crushed and, yes, people will begin to mysteriously get pushed out of widows.

Form follows function.

“Welcome To The New Right!’ — The Rise Of Republican White Nationalist Fascism


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus Christ are we fucked. It’s growing tiresome to point out how dire things are at the moment. All the conditions are there for the United States to drift peacefully into something akin to “lite touch” fascism. The only reason why it would be a bit mellow — at first — is the absence of a large-scale SA / SS paramilitary group.

We have them, but there are too many of them who are fractious and not really the jackbooted thugs that a fascism government would need. Add to that the so-called Deep State of people who simply want to keep our failing liberal democratic traditions alive in some form and at first there will be only one change: the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if Democrats control Congress, too.

Otherwise, things will — initially, at least — be the same as they always have.

The problem is, form follows function. Once white nationalist fascists realize they can do whatever the fuck they want and there will be absolutely no consequences for them, they’re going to grow more aggressive. Before you know it, my running gag about me being pushed out a window by ICE won’t be so funny anymore. (Gulp)

Soon enough, living in the United States and Russia will be like the end of Animal Farm — we’ll look back and forth between the two and they’ll look identical. Only when it becomes personal will the average white Christian MAGA person care about the abuses of our new white nationalist fascist overlords

As of right now, that seems to be our fate. We’re just going to peacefully transition into a white nationalist fascist autocracy without a peep of objection. We’re going to both-sides ourselves into autocracy. There will be a MAGA-originated Constitutional Convention and whichever one of the would-be autocrats who are chomping at the bit to succeed Trump wins will become an American Putin.

Generations of Americans will only know President Hawley, or President Pompeo or President Noam or President Cotton….the list goes on. There will be occasional big protests and occasional random acts of savage political violence on the part of the white national fascists. But, overall, America will be a national of “blood and soil” and indistinguishable from Russia or Hungry or Turkey.

There are a few known unknowns that could scramble what seems inevitable now. Trump is a fucking idiot who could push himself into macro historical trends AGAIN and force an avoidable civil war on us out of sheer incompetence. Or our transition into a white Christian nationalist fascist state might hit Blue States in just the wrong way and they bounce, causing a civil war.

But, in general, the Establishment simply isn’t taking the fucking New Right seriously enough. So, we’re fucked.

Three Impending Potential Crisis Events That Could Be The Catalyst For A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are three moments to think about in the future when it comes to the existential choice of autocracy or civil war that faces us.

Near term: The Cyber Ninjas Arizona Recount
The Cyber Ninjas clusterfuck sham “audit” is one of those things I just can’t game out. I have no idea what the outcome of them “proving” that Trump “won” the state after all will be. Everything from civil war to it just being something Russian trolls piviot to on Twitter is a potential outcome. Trump already makes it clear he thinks he should be re-instated as POTUS as soon as possible.

I guess what I’m afraid of is a dynamic similar to what happened on January 6th, only on a national scale. The moment the Cyber Ninjas preliminary report is filed that tells Trump won, he’s going to freak the fuck out. Trump has a $100 million war chest to fuck things up, so maybe he would stop grifting long enough to use that money to put pressure on MAGA legislatures to have “Decertification Conventions?”

Or something like that.

And, yet, Trump pretty much has been saying this exact same thing — that if you’re MAGA and have the power to decertify Biden’s win in your state, get to it — and nothing has happened. It’s just kind of rolling around the far Right echo chamber with Mike Flynn. Something would have to change. People with something to lose would have to feel the base of the Republican Party was so juiced up with Big Lie rhetoric that they actually expected them to do something about it now that there was “proof” that Trump “won” Arizona.

Again, the Cyber Ninjas thing is something that is easy to imagine on paper, but in the real world…it could very well just become another MAGA New Right talking point for Jesse Kelly after he says, “Welcome To The New Right!” when he does something embarrassing he can’t properly defend.

I guess the point is — Cyber Ninjas in itself could be enough to push us into a some sort of secession crisis. And, yet, lulz. Who knows.

Middle Term: The 2022 mid-terms
It could be that what gets us is not Cyber Ninjas or the 2024 Congressional Nullification Crisis, but the 2022 mid-terms. It could be that we’re so fragile on a political level that just the added pressure of the mid-terms will be enough to cause us to collapse.

The way I imagine it happening wouldn’t be the mid-terms themselves, but what they would bring –a Republican controlled Congress. In this case, the civil war would happen not with Red States leaving the Union to form Trumplandia, but with Blue States leaving the Union when Speaker Trump impeaches both Biden and Harris and then incites a civil war when Senate Democrats won’t convict.

This option is a bit nebulous, but it is possible. It’s also possible that the mid-terms could turn tragic if it becomes really obvious that the Republican Party officially won’t brook the Democratic Party winning — ever. That might be enough to cause Blue States to bounce. Or not. Who knows.

Longer Term: The 2024 President Election
It seems to me that this is going to be it — if we make it through Cyber Ninjas and the 2022 midterms, it will be January 2025 that forces us to make the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

Everything will come to a head in late 2024 to early 2025. Long term metrics of politics and demographics will come to a sharp point. There will, at last, be no middle ground for anyone — autocracy or civil war.

Either we allow Republicans to nullify the result of a Biden win, there’s another (successful) insurrection to do just that or we have a fucking civil war. Everyone will have to take a side. No exceptions.

January 2025 is going to be a momentous year in our nation’s history — if we make it to that point. But we could doge the situation if a major regional war popped up or, I dunno, some sort of COVID19 variant popped out that killed millions.

Otherwise, we’re fucked on a political history basis.

America is Careening Towards The Existential Choice of Autocracy Or Civil War In January 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is either just a few years away from descending into full MAGA New Right autocracy or this is a modern antebellum period. Take your pick. You only have those two choices.

Let me state at the beginning that I got a lot — a whole lot — wrong about the Trump Era.

But looking back, most of my errors were miscalculations about what Trump was actually capable of doing. He talked like an autocrat, but he didn’t walk like one. So, I spent all this time thinking up pretty basic autocratic things he could do…and he was just too lazy and stupid to do them. As such, you have a situation where it seemed very easy to me during the 2020 presidential cycle that Trump would steal the election and become an autocrat via a Koch Brothers-inspired Constitutional Convention.

It was a gimme for Trump. All the conditions were there. All the metrics. Everything. All Trump had to do was fire enough people to get someone to indict Joe Biden and have images of him being frog walked at some point leading up to November 2020 and that would be it. What’s more, as late as a few days after the 2020 election, Trump STILL could have stolen the election and he just didn’t have the wherewithal.

So what happened was he panicked. He made a last ditch effort to steal the election by having his angry mob want to “Hang Mike Pence.” But it was always a dumb plan and all it did was give Republicans, on an systemic basis, a heads up as to how to steal future elections.

But back to 2024.

It’s seems a forgone conclusion that in January 2025, either we slip peacefully into some sort of MAGA New Right autocracy because it officially becomes conventional wisdom that the only way a Democrat can become president is if their party controls Congress at the same time or we have a civil war. And my bet is if it happens in 2025, it’s going to be Blue States, not Red States that bounce.

The dead hand of history is on Red States’ side — they have the macro trend momentum — and so when the moment comes and it’s clear we’re going to be an autocracy, there’s a chance that Blue States simply won’t put up with it and we have a civil war.

Of course, there’s one issue I can’t game out: the U.S. Military.

It’s possible that in the end, the military gets over itself and steps in. They depose the MAGA New Right autocrat, form a junta with Jim Mattis at its head and call a Constitutional Convention to fix the problems facing the country. Hopefully, of course, they’ll ensure that it’s not a MAGA dominated convention, but who knows.

All I know is, something’s gotta give. The positions of the two sides are hardening to the point that something’s going to change very soon, within a few years. Things are going to change in a big, historic fashion that a lot of people are simply not prepared to experience.

I can’t predict the future. So I could be wrong — again. But barring something big happening that throws everything out of whack (the LHC is going back online in 2022, so lulz) I just don’t see how we don’t have a pretty massive turning point in American history around January 2025.

AOC & The End Of The Meh Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If the book The Fourth Turning is to be believed, we’re currently in a holding pattern until Something Big happens around 2025. I don’t believe in reveled truth, but that jibes with my personal belief that January 2025 is going to be huge because we’re either going to peacefully drift into an autocracy or, gulp, we’re going to have a civil war.

We’re kind of in a historical holding pattern at the moment. We live in an Era of Meh. But whenever that changes, everything is going to be thrown up in the air. People who currently are just kind of drifting through history may be forced to rise to the occasion.

One person this is very true about is AOC. She’s young, smart and articulate. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where when the crisis of January 2025 happens she is forced into the spotlight in a big way. She might find herself in a Giuliani on 9/11 type situation.

Or, put another way, a side effect of the impending chaos we’re careening towards would be someone like AOC. She’s ripe to be pushed into the next level of our political life for no other reason than she may feel compelled to take a stand that puts her in serious risk.

I have no idea what any of this would entail, but if the country is falling apart because a MAGA controlled Congress refuses to certify a Biden win in January 2025, AOC seems like the type of person who might lead the effort to stop such a tyrannical move.

Anyway. What do I know. Lulz.

The Rise of Trumplandia — The MAGA New Right & Popular American Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just like how Putin’s initial transition of Russia into an autocracy was popular among a large swath of the Russian electorate because it promised to bring “stability,” so, too is the prospect of American autocracy very popular within the MAGA New Right.

Once you establish this, everything begins to make a lot more sense.

It’s difficult to talk to someone about politics in a liberal democracy when their personal political views are based on the goal of…destroying the liberal democracy you both currently live in. That’s why Trump remains so popular long after any other politician in a similar position would have been destroyed. He’s so out there that we lose sight that the “idea” of Trump is so popular because the “idea” the he represents is autocracy.

Or, put another way, people wanted an old fashion autocrat when they elected him in 2016 (with the help of the Russians) and, in a sense, we kind of dodged a bullet when he turned out just to be a malicious idiot. So, Trump could very well be seen as more a transitional character that the guy who gets the job done. But the thing about Trump is for all his autocratic, disruptive leanings he’s all talk — or just really lazy.

That’s why you have the situation where he telegraphed in exact detail his intentions of being an American Hitler…only not to be able to produce the goods. So center-Left people like me who screamed that Trump was an autocrat who was going to destroy America…were right. We were right given the metrics we had at the time.

What we got wrong was Trump’s actual ability to do all the things he said he wanted to do. I mean, if he was anywhere near as effective as he would have us believe he would have EASILY stolen the 2020 election, pulled out of NATO the moment he was re-elected and began to rant about how we needed a Constitutional Convention. And this would have been popular enough that absolutely nothing was done to prevent it.

Donald Trump

But, surprise, Trump is all hot air. He’s a lazy racist piece of shit who talks a good game but can’t in any way do any of the autocratic things he so desperately wants to do. This, even though he had the entire power of the Federal government at his disposal and a entire political party at his beck and call.

It takes a lot of talent to screw up your autocratic dreams with all that going for you.

And, yet, Trump managed to do just that.

The point of all of this is two fold. One, don’t get your hopes up if we figure out the direct link between Trump, “R. Congressmen” and the January 6th Insurrection. We could know for an absolute fact that Trump personally was involved in the direction of that violent event and STILL nothing would happen to him. There are just too many people who not-so-tacitly support his dream of an autocratic America — too many people inside the Republican Party wanted the goal of that particular conspiracy to be successful.

The issue is Trump is such a ding-bat that if history AGAIN gives him the power to finally transition us into an autocracy, there’s a good chance we’re going to have a civil war. He’s just too big a doofus to be able to pull it off without the Blue States, in some manner, fighting back on the field of battle.

So, Trump’s personal laziness and incompetency would be the specific reason why the civil war that so many MAGA New Right fucktards want so bad finally happens. It would probably happen at some point around the certification of Trump’s “winning” the 2024 election because a MAGA Congress nullifies Biden’s win. Good times!

Lastly, there is one huge piece of the puzzle that way, way, way too many are oblivious to — they’re so busy hating on Trump that they forget all of this bullshit is a systemic problem. Trump is just an avatar. There are probably a dozen talented Republican elected officials who are positioning themselves to be America’s Putin.

They will get into office and never leave. An entire generation — or two! of Americans will grow up with President Pompeo, or Hawley, or Cotton or Noam or DeSantis…or you name it. And, as much as it pains me to say this, the only way this will NOT happen is if the transition to autocracy is somehow bungled and we have a very tragic civil war that will pretty much cause WW3 and the potential death of billions around the globe.

So, take your pick, folks.

Autocracy or civil war. Autocracy or civil fucking war.

De Agony And De Ecstasy Of Ron DeSantis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If this was the pre-Trump Era, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would be well on his way to being a run-of-the-mill Republican president. He might even be a tick or two better than idiot George W. Bush.

But this is the POST Trump presidency era, and, as such, things are fucking bonkers. Instead of just a run of the mill Republican president, DeSantis, if elected would be more like an American Augustus — the first autocrat of our new post-democracy America.

Ron DeSantis

All the hysterical, dystopian things I’ve been ranting about would happen during his presidency instead of ding-dong Trump’s. DeSantis is young, competent and not only knows how to weld the levers of power, but also how to be Trump without Trump. And, as such, he’s extremely dangerous.

DeSantis could turn into an American Putin and simply never leave office. There is already a well-organized move afoot to get a Constitutional Convention called and given how its members would be selected — via state legislatures — it’s a gimmie that it would codify MAGA “blood and soil” concepts into the Constitution.

And that would be it.

What’s worse, DeSantis is actively killing his own electorate at the moment by denying science when it comes to COVID19 in an effort to curry favor with those sweet, sweet MAGA base votes. We’ve reached the point where MAGA New Right voters are so absolute in their need to “own the libs” because of their abstract fears over Cancel Culture and Critical Race Theory that they would LITERALLY RATHER DIE than see COVID19 for what it is — a lingering national health crisis.

There is one other potential obstacle to DeSantis getting his opportunity to be the founding autocrat of Trumplandia — a 300 lb tub of lard who thinks HE should be the founding autocrat of Trumplandia. Trump is so fucking deranged and unwilling to let go of either power or the spotlight that it’s very easy to imagine him politically shiving DeSantis so he can run again in 2024.

Now, logically, Trump would pick DeSantis as his new veep, paving the way for Trump to put DeSantis in the position of being his autocratic successor. But Trump is a craven idiot who thinks in such a short-term, so it could be we end up with Vice President Michael Flynn instead of Vice President Ron DeSantis.

Anyway, the point is — Trump is such a political history disrupter that he could bend the nature progression of our history simply because he’s self-serving dick head. Or not. Who knows what that guy.

I will note, however, that DeSantis is extremely fucking popular with conservatives in general. But even if everything breaks his way, there are going to be a dozen other would-be autocrats stalking him in an effort to get him to trip up.

And, lastly, don’t forget the real possibility of some sort of civil war should DeSantis win the presidency only via the skullduggery of a MAGA Congress.

States Are Now The Laboratories Of Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be, the famous quip about the states was that they were the “laboratories of democracy.” Sadly, the opposite is now true — in MAGA state after state, would-be autocrats are testing out different autocratic measures in an hope of catching the attention of the MAGA faithful.

Because of the fundimental anti-democratic nature of the modern MAGA Republican Party, by definition, if you want to make a name for yourself as a would-be Republican nominee, you have to think up new and creative ways of strangling democracy on a state level. From Texas, to South Dakota to Florida, governor after governor has made it clear that their goal is to strangle American democracy in the name of “making America great again.”

And, I think, that’s the crux of what a lot of people are missing about what’s going on in the United States right now — Trump has always been nothing more than an avatar. As such, even if we magically took Trump out of the equation there are many, many men and women chomping at the bit to finish the transition to autocracy that Trump began.

So, in a sense, we’re pretty much fucked. Totally, and completely, fucked.

In fact, I would say we’re so fucked that the other option before us, civil war, might, in a sense be the better one because even though it would be a horrific tragedy, at least there would be the possibility that we would come out on the other side with a stronger democracy.

That’s kind of dark and I don’t like to think about that, but, yikes is autocracy bearing down on us.

What Are Trump, Mark Meadows & Their Merry Band Of Seditious Idiots Up To?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The core group of people who surrounded Mad King Trump fling off so much bullshit at any one moment that it’s very difficult to figure out what the fuck they’re talking about sometimes. But, just recently, former Trump COS Mark Meadows make it sound like Trump was plotting some sort of return sooner rather than later.

I struggle to figure out what’s going on.

Either it’s all bullshit meant to make Trump feel better, or they’re actively planning to take advantage of the potential instability caused by Cyber Ninjas “proving” that Trump “won” Arizona. If it’s the latter, then they’re actively stetting the stage for a national version of January 6th.

Here’s how it would go down.

Sometime soon — in August, maybe? — Cyber Ninjas comes out with a preliminary report that says Trump won Arizona. Trump spooges his pants and won’t shut the fuck up about how this PROVES he won the 2020 election, even if it’s just one state. This sets of a cascading set of events where Red State legislatures across the country decide to hold “Decertification Conventions” meant to appease the MAGA base. Of course, soon enough, because of Trump screaming at them, these conventions turn into “Nullification Conventions” and, soon enough, once they realize that you can’t really nullify the results of a presidential election — Secessionist Conventions.

Then Trump really does do the ultimate ask the elected members of his violent personality cult — are you going to join my new Trumplandia government?

That is kind of the absolute, absolute worst case scenario.

More likely, all of this bullshit would be used to as part of a greater media narrative for the 2022 mid-terms. They might tell the MAGA base to vote so Trump the “real” president could become Speaker and, as such, be put into the line of secession to cause who knows mischief.

The point is — the moment Cyber Ninjas comes out with their preliminary report, all hell might break loose. Or not. Everything is very much up in the air at this point.

Pretty much anything might happen. The key issue is, could Trump unto himself, be catalyst enough to force a secession crisis if he isn’t “re-instated.”

Struggling To Parse Out The MAGA Narrative Of The Jan. 6th Capitol Insurrection


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA hates it when something makes them look bad, despite their “Fuck your feelings” rhetoric. Also, remember, Trump lives in his own surreal Upside Down and demands otherwise sane people to tow the line, so they end up tying themselves into rhetorical knots to explain his erratic statements.

But, here goes.

Apparently, the parts MAGA doesn’t like — the violent attempt to murder people with Blue Lives Matter Flags and Old Glory part — was actually a combination of Antifa, the FBI and BLM. Meanwhile, once the blood sport portion of the event ended, the people who went into the Capitol itself, THOSE people were just tourists who wanted to peacefully look around without an appointment. Though, given all the agitation that Trump et al were directly responsible for the idea that these, perfectly peaceful people’s agenda was just to hang out and talk to their Congress member is…dubious?

That doesn’t even begin to address the “Welcome To The New Right” part of all of this in the sense that there may come a point when the never-ending drift towards fascism on the part of the Republican Party will force all conservatives to embrace and extend what happened. You see some of this already in how they’re trying to turn Ashli Babbitt into some sort of MAGA martyr. This is another aspect of this rhetorical clusterfuck that is difficult to understand.

So, the violent part of what happened was a False Flag operation. And Ms. Babbitt is a martyr who was just minding her own business — EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE FOOTAGE OF EXACTLY WHAT SHE WAS DOING THAT CAUSED HER DEATH. Had she not been shot, there’s a good chance that that “the False Flag operation” that was going on all around her would have ended in the death of a number of elected officials. UGH.

I suppose the point of all this bullshit is to simply address the outrage of normal, non-MAGA people in an a la carte manner. If MAGA’s defenses for what happened are contradictory and make no sense, so what. Libs. Owned.

And the thing we need right now — for the January 6th Insurrection to pry traditional conservatives away from MAGA just isn’t going to happen. That’s why Mitch McConnell et al are acting the way they are now. Trump is still very popular within conservative circles. The base is drifting closer and closer to totally embracing fascism and white nationalism. So, lulz, so what.

I don’t have any easy answers for you. It’s not like I write for VOX or anything.