Tag: Second American Civil War

I’m A Survivor

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

These days, I often find myself thinking the unthinkable. Namely, what am I going to do if, well, the world ends. Now, obviously “the world ends” is something of a spectrum ranging from simply becoming a domestic political refugee to something far more severe like living through the aftermath of a DPRK H-bomb attack on DC or NYC.

I keep thinking about food. I keep wondering how I will eat in such a situation. I can’t cook and I can’t hunt. And while I have a downlow survivalist relative who wants to camp out in the middle of the woods armed — he lives in the wrong place. AND, he kind of misses the point — the state is going to be involved in any collapse of the US and, as such, I need to head to a safe Blue state should the worst happen.

In general, if the worst happens, I’m going to grab a few essentials and head north. First to Richmond than maybe see if I can get to NYC. Now, obviously, I’m working on the assumption that I won’t be alone leaving. I probably won’t even be able to leave until some sort of infrastructure exists that will allow me to live until I find succor somewhere safe.

But I do think a lot about this. I just don’t know how things are going to work out going forward.

We Live In Surreal Times

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything is so dumb. And one of the dumbest things to happen in a long time — and that’s saying something — is how MAGA is absolutely determined to attack Taylor Swift, to make her the focus of the culture wars.

Insane. Totally, completely insane.

All I can think of is that maybe that think that because of what she looks like — and her background in country — that she’s something of a “traitor” to the MAGA cause. So much so, that they totally ignore how popular she is and how the base of her support is liberal white women, not a group known to be swayed by the ranting of malignant ding-dong Trump.


I fear this is yet another example of how the greatest nation the world has ever seen could very well collapse into chaos because of…vibes. It could be that just because we don’t like each other that the US will implode into revolution and civil war a lot sooner than you might think.

I continue to worry about what might happen as part of the 2024 presidential silly season. It will be interesting to see what happens when we meet a Moment of Truth when Federal elected officials have to decide if they’re going to jump ship to some rebel forces.

Anyway. At the moment, that’s kind of bonkers to even speculate. But the point remains — leave Tay-Tay alone.

Better Living Through Technology

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though we’re in for a significant “vibe shift” caused by technology in the very, very near future. This fact has gotten me thinking about how there might be some unintended political consequences to something akin to a Petite Singularity.

I came to this realization walking around Wal-Mart today. Imagine if instead of struggling to find a human to tell me what I needed to know, the place was crawling with one of those androids that Elon Musk is working on. Put Grok or ChatGTP in them and download the entire floorplans and the stock of the store and they could replace the humans that work at the store.

This might happen at an affordable level by 2030 — if we don’t blow the world up first.

But imagine if there was a sudden tipping point on the android / AI front and a lot of DDD jobs that undocumented people usually fill were done by androids. That might turn off the tap of people coming across the border simply because androids would be doing the jobs they would otherwise be paid to do.

Everything is so dumb

Also, isn’t it at least POSSIBLE that that, unto itself, might unfuck up our politics when it comes to MAGA and abortion? And if Incels can fuck a sex bot instead being idiots thinking women have a responsibility to fuck t hem, then…maybe a lot of the culture war fueled by feminism and a low birth rate….might just vanish?

So, there might be some upside to the rise of coming AI android overlords. Of course, this solution will, in turn cause the rise of an AI / android rights movement that I’m sure MAGA will love to oppose.

And remember, we still have the possibility of absolute chaos at home and abroad starting from right about now until sometime in 2025. It could be that just like how WW2 paused the development of TV that the coming Second American Civil War / WW3 will do the same thing with the Petite Singularity.

It could be that after about 1 billion people die across the globe — specifically and directly because of the actions of MAGA and Trump — and all that is sorted out that it won’t be until about 2030 that all the cool technological goodies that we’re being promised today will actually be rolled out.

Civil War & WW3, Oh My!

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The stand off between the Feds and Texas and the stand off between the US and Iran share one thing in common: they both risk uncontrollable escalation that might lead to some pretty insane things happening.

With the Fed – Texas situation, this is exactly the type of situation that members of the American Far Right have longed for for decades. It doesn’t help, of course, that the Russians are using social media to egg the situation on. One false move or misjudgment by either side and there could be, at least, a severe insurrection, and potentially a secession crisis.

Meanwhile, WW3 could break out if ANOTHER regional war broke out, this time in the Middle East. And such additional destabilizing event on the globe might push the DPRK over the edge and the next thing you know, the nukes are whizzing around.

As I’ve written before, one way to re-elect Joe Biden would be a Black Swan event like WW3 or a Secession Crisis. Hopefully, of course, none of this is going to happen and we can fight Trump politically on the merits.

Even though, of course, if he loses, he might start a civil war by demanding a National Divorce so he doesn’t go to prison.

Trump’s Proposed Tyrannical Moves Should He Win Won’t Happen In A Vacuum

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to even contemplate this, but ding-dong Trump is setting himself up for a pretty astonishing turn of events if he wins this year. He really thinks he can go full tyrant on us in 2025 and there not be any political consequences.


At a minimum, he might get (successfully) impeached.

At worst, something wild might happen that might lead him to be…disposed in some way. I have no idea how that would happen — it would be completely stunning if it happened — but I could imagine some combination of a General Strike and a very fed up U.S. Military using the cover of the 14th Amendment causing it to happen.

Or something. Something huge and dramatic that would be a Day The Earth Stood Still level of bonkers.

Of course, that opens the idea that Trump might pick a veep who was so totally and completely unacceptable and bonkers that he / she would be an “insurance policy” against such machinations.

Seems to me that Gen. Mike Flynn would be just the type of person to be such an insurance policy.

I just don’t know what to tell you, folks. We seem to still be on track to late 2024, early 2025 being totally and completely insane on a political basis.

Leave Tay-Tay Alone, MAGA

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to find it very surreal how much hostility there is towards Taylor Swift on the part of the MAGA Right simply because — she wants people to register to vote?

But, here we are, with a wide-range of notable MAGA “thought leaders” screaming at the top of their lungs all sorts of vicious and hateful things about Tay-Tay at very opportunity.

Simply because she wants people to vote.

Very, very strange.

It’s as if MAGA people take the idea of voting as, by definition, a personal offense. They know that the more people vote, the more they lose elections because they simply will note, can not change their policy agenda because of racism and misogyny.

And it seems like it’s only going to get worse as we enter the 2024 political silly season. At this point, I’ll just be glad if we can make it through the election without collapsing into chaos or turning into a MAGA themed autocracy.

It’s Not Even A Good Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Maybe it’s not so bad that Russian spies and trolls might be reading this blog to get tips — at least they might come up with a post-civil war America scenario better than this one.


This is not at all what would happen to the U.S. If there was some sort of collapse, it would totally be a Red V. Blue situation, not a collapse into regions. And it would be far, far more messy than the map above might have you believe. There would be millions — MILLIONS — of domestic political refugees as people bounced around, look for someone to live that better fit their personal political views.

Anyway. I would suggest the Russians slow their roll with their drooling at the possibility that the US will collapse. It could be that we just turn into an autocracy.

Welp, WW3 Would Be The Type Of ‘Black Swan’ Event That Would Re-Elect Joe Biden

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the reasons why Trump lost in 2020 was something none of us could have predicted in the years leading up to the event — a pandemic. The pandemic — combined with how dumb and lazy Trump is — was enough to jiggle the political dynamic to produce a Trump loss.

As such, we may find ourselves with another such “black swan” event — something akin to WW3.

We already have one major regional war in Europe and a minor one in the Middle East — if the US struck Tehran because of today’s death of three solders by a Iranian proxy group, then, well, all bets are off. Because if, say, Iran used one of the three a-bombs it apparently has access to on, say, Israel, then, yikes, that would so destabilize the globe that soon enough the DPRK and China would probably start lashing out as well.

There would be a rally round the flag affect and, there you go, Biden is re-elected. Of course, if, say, the simmering conflict between Pakistan – India — China also got hot….things might grow rather awkward.

It could be that rather than the US having a civil war / revolution or turning into an America First autocracy, the whole globe just collapses into chaos and…saves American democracy.

It would be surreal.

America’s Foes Are Gunning For Us On Social Media

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On both Twitter and Tik-Tok I’ve seen a lot of what is clearly ‘fight fight fight” rhetoric generated by accounts that are clearly not American. It is beginning to dawn on America’s strategic foes that we could very well implode because of….vibes.

They are hoping to stir up trouble on social media to the point that, say the simmering power struggle between Texas and the Feds could turn into a full blown insurrection or even civil war.

I don’t see how we can stop this particular situation. It’s one of those things where outside forces stirring up trouble are just part of what we have to deal with going forward.

Everything is so fucked up

This Is Nuts

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am still not prepared to believe anything of note is going to happen because of the low-key power struggle between the Feds and Texas, but the news that the Border Patrol Union claims it won’t cut the barbwire at the center of that struggle doesn’t help anything.

And I still am not 100% sure that this means what I think it means.

And, what’s more, I still think Biden is going to let Texas have its fun until he knows one way or another what is going to happen with the immigration deal making its way to the House. If it is, in fact, DOA as Speaker Johnson proposes, then, yeah, things might escalate pretty quick.

But….I’m not prepared to believe that.

I think all of this is a bunch of bluster and it will come to nothing, at least until after Election Day 2024.

Only time will tell, I suppose.