Tag: Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I know I’m just a loser nobody in the middle of nowhere, but sometimes being a power Twitter user can grow frustrating — Twitter liberals are completely oblivious to the New Normal we live in.

Not only do Republicans no longer believe in democracy, they’re so wrapped up in their MAGA New Right orthodoxy that they no longer believe in facts that don’t fit their own recursive narrative. They get all bent out of shape — usually on Joe Rogan’s podcast — about the “media narrative” when it’s they themselves who have a very, very strict narrative of their own.

They say post-factual is pre-fascist and that’s just about where we are right now in the United States. Republicans believe what they believe because they believe it and fuck you, libtards. It is self evident that they have no shame and are politically above the law.

Then they turn around and rant about this or that thing that may have been found on Hunter Biden’s laptop.

The point is — we’re passed the event horizon for Something Big happening int the United States between now and around Certification Day 2025. At the moment, I’m of the opinion that we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy. Initially, nothing will really change and Mueller, She Wrote will continue to think I’m just a crank who won’t stop tweeting about “doom shit.”

And then, over the course of the next few years, about a million center-Left people will leave the United States as it grows ever more clear that the MAGA New Right’s autocratic white Christian ethnostate vision of America is becoming a reality.

By about 2030, the United States will be well on its way to be a political clone of Putin’s Russia. And, at last, white conservative men will no longer have to worry about being “canceled” because they had a tone deaf slip of the tongue that got recorded and then went viral. They will be the bedrock of our autocratic America and that will be that.

There will occasionally be huge protests, but, lulz, nothing will come of it. There will be near-constant talk about how this or that thing might finally bring down America’s autocrat….but nothing happens. We’re going to wake up at some point about 20 years from now and realize we’ve had the same president for a generation.

I keep writing about this and wondering to myself if I’m missing something. Is there some way that my “hysterical doom shit” prediction of autocracy or civil war being our choice in late 2024 – early 2025 could be wrong? As of right now, I just can’t think of anything.

Republicans are, by definition, fascists. They’re bloodthirsty and radicalized on a systemic, existential basis to the point that the only way they may ever be removed from power once they get it again is they are so bloodthirsty that they’re deposed like Pol Pot. But by then, of course, millions of Americans will be very, very dead.

But that’s very speculative. A more likely scenario is we just drift into autocracy and that’s it. There will be abuses now and again that get people riled up, but in general, the entire very unpopular MAGA New Right agenda will be enacted and America will circle the drain.

We’ll be poorer, more inward looking and allies with other autocracies like Russia, Hungary and Turkey. That will be our new normal and the “woke” era will finally, at last, come to an end because, well, we’re going to live in a political dystopian hellscape.

Good luck.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s an open secret that a lot of well known liberals are making contingency plans on how to leave the country should Trump and MAGA gain power again in 2025. They’re getting the second passport, for instance. It’s developments like these that lead me to believe that in our nation’s time of need — from Election Day 2024 to Certification Day 2025 — the people who would otherwise lead some sort of real world resistance to tyranny will simply say, “So long, suckers.”

And that will be that.

Starting at some point after Election Day 2024 when it becomes clear which direction things are going to go — I’m of the opinion that Republicans may win the 2024 election outright without any cheating — somewhere upwards of 1 million center-Left people will begin to leave the United States.

They have the means, motive and opportunity to do so and so they will. They won’t think about how they’re needed to save American democracy or figure out a way to actively resist the MAGA fascist state. They will leave the nation of their birth and not look back.

Or, let me put it to you this way — fleeing the country will be the initial reaction of a huge swath of the liberal elite. It won’t be until there’s some sign that they have a reason to come back, say a civil war in which Blue States win, will they come waltzing back as if nothing happened.

I don’t think enough people appreciate how dire things are becoming in the United States right now. The moment the Republicans take over Congress in January 2023, the mood of the country is going to change dramatically. All Congress is going to do is impeach Biden and Harris for two years. The Senate will never get anything done — any more than usual — because they’ll be sitting in impeachment trials all the time.

Anyway, this is it, folks. All my “hysterical doom shit” will gradually, starting January 20th, 2025 start to become true. There may be some delay because of inertia and the lingering influence of “the deep state,” but within a few years we’ll have a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balance budget amendment” and our final slide into fascist autocracy will be complete.

Meanwhile, Blue Check liberals will be sipping pinacolatos in the south of France.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m beginning to feel like I have a better understanding how it felt to the average person in the waning days of the Roman Empire. It definitely seems as we’ve all collectively just given up. The fascists are ascendant and right now, the only question is do we collapse into civil war or do we slip peacefully into autocracy.

At the moment, all signs point to the latter. Not only is the center-Left more worried about their pronouns than they are how to meaningfully address the rise of American autocracy, the mainstream press is willfully complicit in the transformation of the United States from democracy to anocracy to, finally autocracy.

This happens at the same time that most conservative Traditionalists believe the press is wildly slanted against them.

It’s all very surreal.

A lot of our political problems stem from how muddled everything is. It’s difficult for any sort of anti-fascist narrative to develop when the people who would be central to it — conservative Traditionalists blanch at what the center-Left is currently passionate about. The center-Left continues to shoot itself in the foot by ranting about things that are easily packaged as the “Woke Agenda.” It’s enough to make you fear that we’ve passed the event horizon of some sort of “Fourth Turning” around 2025.

We simply can no longer punt this crisis down the road. I struggle to see how we survive the passions of another presidential election cycle. And all of this is happening in broad daylight. It’s not like it’s a secret. That’s why I think we’ve all collectively given up on democracy in America.

Our faith in democracy will only be renewed via a civil war in which the Blue States win. I definitely do not want that, but that seems our fate. If there’s not a civil war, then we become a Russian-style autocracy and there really will be a “Great Reset,” only not in the way paranoid MAGA people think.

I suppose I could still be wrong — I’m wrong all the time — but something pretty big would have to happen for that to be the case. And, remember, the issue is not so much Trump winning in 2024, it’s who is successor will be. Trump is dangerous, but not as dangerous as a President DeSantis, or Cotton, or Hawley….the list goes on. The entire Republican Party on an existential basis no longer believes in traditional American democracy and once they have power again that’s it.

They will consolidate power to the point that we wake up 20 years from now and talk about Generation DeSantis or Cotton, or Hawley, or whomever. It doesn’t help that the people who would lead any real world resistance to this — Blue Check liberals — will simply leave the country.

This is an eerie calm before the storm. Enjoy this brief respite from tyranny while you still can.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I mention a lot, Ernest Hemmingway said people go bankrupt, “Suddenly, then all at once.” I’m growing more and more alarmed that this very thing is playing out in American politics right now. What I’m talking about is the rise of the notion within MAGA rants that much of the anti-MAGA movement is full of “groomers” is enough to give one pause for thought.

I say this because we’re careening towards a day in the not too distant future when MAGA dismisses anyone who doesn’t follow their orthodoxy as a “groomer.” I already see this happening in real time on Twitter. And, as we know, the MAGA orthodoxy has become so absolute that to be Republican is to dismiss anyone you don’t agree with out of hand. If that’s not a corrosive development, I don’t know what is.

This plays into my dread about what is going to happen starting January 2023 when Republicans take control of Congress again. When you have about 48% of the electorate who thinks people they don’t agree with are “groomers” that’s a recipe for disaster.

The two sides continue to recede from each other at an alarming rate. This is happening to the point we’re definitely on track to either a civil war or autocracy starting in the late 2024, early 2025 timeframe.

I continue to believe that because Blue Check liberals are all cowards that we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy. There will be a lot of talk about a civil war, but in the end, nothing will come of it because rather than standing a fighting, the people who would lead any Blue civil war effort will simply leave the country.

Not that I want a civil war, but the idea that we’ll have a civil war is fading fast in my opinion. So, what’s more likely to happen is we become an autocracy and gradually, over the course of a few decades the United States and Russia will become politically identical.

I wish I had some simple answer to all of this, but I don’t. Good luck.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m old enough to remember when a book came out called “The Birth Dearth.” I was too young to read it all — I did try — but in general the book was about how America faced a “birth dearth” in the coming decades.

I’ve heard a little bit more about this book as an adult and apparently it was racist as hell. But anyway, I thought of this book when I caught a moment of the tech bro podcast “All In.”

One of their Smartest Guys In The Room participants said offhandedly that America was — you guessed it — facing a birth dearth (among white people) because of gender equality. They were quick to say, “Well, we all know gender equality is good thing…”

Then it hit me — do we? Does everyone agree with that? The answer is, no. In fact, a huge swath of the MAGA New Right agenda is based specifically on the idea of ending gender equality once and for all. It all goes back to the demographic panic among white conservative men about their place in American society.

Hence, abortion — even contraception in general — will probably be outlawed. The whole point is — white conservative men believe they are in an existential struggle to keep their status by forcing more white babies to be born. They will do everything in their power to achieve this goal, to the point of making women second class citizens if need be.

And the quest to do that goes hand-in-hand with the overall MAGA New Right desire to turn the United States into an autocratic white Christian ethno state of blood and soil.

The real question, of course, is as we are in the final transition into autocracy, do we have a civil war and bomb ourselves into oblivion? I still think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Republican Party loves, loves, loves autocracy. If it’s not blowing Putin’s Russia, it’s giving a reach around to Orban’s Hungary. In fact, the fucking cocksucker racists of CPAC are having their next shindig in Hungary as to prove this point.

Some people seem to think that autocratic America will be some sort of right wing ideal where all that happens is Republicans are always — forever — in office and no one will ever again have to worry about “woke” corporations ever forcing them to have regular sensitivity training.

But, alas, I seriously doubt this.

The reason is, Republicans are out for blood. Every day, it seems the talking points of the Far Right drift down to your Traditionalist relative who just wants the right to say the “N-word” if the mood so hits them, since they’re outraged that African American rappers get to say it and they don’t.

Add to this some basic differences between modern day America and Orban’s Hungary. One is, race. Hungary is pretty homogenous in its demographics and so the issue of race isn’t really relevant. Yes, Orban seems like something of an anti-Semite, but otherwise he doesn’t govern a nation as diverse as the United States.

So, it makes a lot of sense that once we do finally slip peacefully into autocracy, we’re headed for something a lot darker, something a lot closer to an American First version of Nazi Germany. I can’t predict the future, so I don’t know how exactly it will happen, but the entire infrastructure of the Republican Party is now comping at the bit to turn the United States into a dystopian hellscape.

Once we’re an autocracy and there is no longer any political connection between the governed and the government, Republicans will enact sweeping, long-sought after policies that will raise taxes on the poor while at the same time gutting the nation’s social safety net. I mean, who is going to stop them? And how? By voting? Ha!

And that will be just the beginning.

There will be a Constitutional Convention called to “pass a balanced budget amendment” but will soon enough go rouge and pass something probably marketed as a “Second Bill of Rights” that will enshrine the concept that the United States is an autocratic white Christian ethno state based on the concept of “blood and soil.”

Because of how Qanon is now popular within mainstream Republican ranks, the existing ICE camp system will be weaponized and liberals — or just loudmouth cranks like me who refuse to fucking shut up — will be rounded up and have God only knows what happen to them. And form follows function, so POC will probably eventually be killed en masse in some sort of MAGA “Final Solution” of the “minority problem.”

Women’s rights will be eroded to the point that the autocrat will definitely make it clear that they’re aren’t enough white babies being conceived.

Again, I can’t predict the future. I could be wrong. I often — almost always — am. But all the macro signs point to some very, very dark days ahead for the United States. Autocracy is very popular with most of the Republican base, even if a lot of them can’t really articulate that that is what they want.

In short, we’re doomed. Those with the means to leave the United States, will do so. Hundreds of thousands of wealthy center-Left Americans in tech and entertainment will simply leave the country for less autocratic nations. America will leave NATO, ally with Russia, Hungary and Turkey and that will be that. America will grow inward and fascist to the point that all of our arguing over pronouns and fears of being “canceled” will see very, very quaint.

Or we have a civil war starting somewhere between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

At the moment, I think we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy, but it hasn’t happened yet. Good luck.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We are witnessing the radicalization of the Republican Party into nothing short of an American Nazi Party. Just in the last few months, the party has grown more and more hysterical in its misogyny, race baiting, and now, homophobia. It’s like something about their impending return to control of Congress has boiled their minds or something.

But this is part of a broader problem — Republicans have now decided that any fact that doesn’t help their preconceived narrative is “bogus.” They have their orthodoxy and that is their reality. Any cold hard fact that doesn’t fit that orthodoxy is to be ignored, or played down or disparaged. There is now such momentum to this adherence to the MAGA New Right orthodoxy that a lot of “Good Germans” are shifting their stance accordingly.

That’s why 2023 – 2025 will be a very, very turbulent era in not just American history, but, potentially human history. The conditions are there for Republicans to commit genocide no matter which direction we go. If we become an autocracy, then ICE will be weaponized as will the entire ICE camp infrastructure. Soon enough, because of how how Qanon has consumed the Republican Party, liberals will be rounded up and murdered in cold blood. Meanwhile, if we have a civil war, the same thing will happen, only in the Red States to those Blues unfortunate enough not to escape to a Blue State.

I’m well aware of how hysterical all of this sounds. It just doesn’t seem possible that the most powerful democracy in the world would turn on itself like this. But, lulz, here we are. In fact, if humanity survives the impending clusterfuck we’re about to go through, many, many, books will be written that struggle to figure out how things got so bad so quickly.

All the conditions are their for something horrific to happen in the United States between now and around Certification Day 2025. Or, put another way, the process that will end with a historic genocide happening in the United States will begin between now and 2025.

The reason why this keeps being at the forefront of my mind is I’m never going to shut up about how much I fucking hate the MAGA New Right and given I’m a loudmouth crank with no friends it’s inevitable that it’s going to be people like me who run afoul of our new MAGA autocrat — or have to struggle to leave my Red State to get out of the clutches of the radicalize state MAGA government.

All of this sounds totally bonkers at the moment, but things are growing darker by the moment in the United States. Even my “Good German” relatives talk about how “woke corporations” “groom” children for a homosexual lifestyle — or worse. If that’s not a ping from a very, very dark future, I don’t know what is.

This only sounds bonkers because people simply can’t comprehend that the United States could implode into true tyranny. In fact, it’s surreal how my Good German relatives think it will be “woke corporations” who do the very things that I’m afraid a MAGA autocrat will do. So, we’ve reached the point where both sides accuse the other of the same things.

But one thing is clear — we can’t keep punting the crisis we’re in down the road forever. There will come a point sooner rather than later when America is going to go through some historic changes. Either we turn into a Nazi-style autocracy, or we have a civil war.

In either case, there will be genocide.