Tag: Second American Civil War

The Surreal ‘Stop The Steal’ of 2024


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All systems continue to be go for a massive, catastrophic clusterfuck in 2024. Before I go any further, however, I will note that on an situational basis, Trump is so popular within the center-Right that he could win the nomination and the 2024 presidential election fair and square.

Don’t let the anemic crowds at his tour with Papa Bear Bill O’Reilly fool you — Trump has Gotterdammerung-levels of power over the Republican Party. He is their Fuhrer in exile at the moment and the sole obstacle to Trump single-handedly turning the United States in to the modern day equivalent of Nazi Germany is he’s an old, poorly focused ding-dong.

So, what will happen is he will win election again in 2024, strangle democracy once and for all and then we all sit around to see who will be America’s Putin. That’s it, that’s our fate. We’re fucking doomed. Get out of the country while you can, or figure out what you believe in so when ICE starts murdering people for political reasons you will know what to do.

But.

There is a chance that when we get to the weakest moment in this dystopian hellscape scenario — the final transition from democracy to autocracy — that Trump self-owns and we have a civil war instead. But this would only happen in the context of Trump somehow not winning outright.

As such, if that did actually happen, then it’s very easy to see the events leading up to a civil war, where it’s Blue States, not Red States that leave the Union, being done under the rubric of “Stop The Steal.” In fact, the only reason why Red States weren’t fat, smug and sassy in the lead up to Certification Day 2021 is how God-awful stupid, lazy and idiotic Trump is an a would-be autocrat.

ANYONE ELSE in Trump’s position in 2020 would have brazenly stolen the election on a political basis. But Trump is so, very, very stupid and lazy that he could not pull it off. So we punted the inevitable choice of autocracy or civil war down the road four years.

And because of how much Traditionalists have come to align themselves with MAGA, when the autocracy comes, the shift in perception from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that the average Traditionalists will STILL call people like me hysterical even as we begin to check off the qualities of a fascist state one by one.

Not until I get rounded up and shot dead by an ICE agent will the Traditionalist in my family go, “Gee, maybe I should have made common cause with him, after all.”

But, by then, I’ll be a rotting “hysterical” corpse in some unmarked grave.

The other option is, of course, that my family is divided for political reasons. I flee to a Blue State, while they stay in their Red States and, well, I don’t like to think about the rest of that. But that’s the future we’re hurtling towards, one where brother is pit against brother, just like what happened in the first civil war.

And, yet maybe I am being hysterical. Maybe something will happen that will punt this particular problem down the road one more presidential cycle. Or, I dunno, aliens might land? WW3 starts? The pandemic goes all The Stand on us? Whatever it is that prevents the existential choice of autocracy or civil war for America in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe has got be pretty big.

What’s more, it could be pretty much any time between now and 2025 that we have a civil war. Trump unexpectedly dying of natural causes, or him being indicted or whatever — something to do with Trump — could very well be enough for Red States to call up snap secessionist conventions.

Things really are that fucked up in the United States right now. And it’s only going to get worse.

A Rich Man Leaves The Country, A Poor Man Stands & Fights


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was really shocked and saddened when David Rothkopf made it clear recently that if things get too hot in the United States he’s bouncing to Europe. I went so far as to do a Twitter video where I pinged him, which I think prompted him to mute me for just being too weird.

Anyway, this fact has rolled around in my mind and it seems obvious that Rothkopf will not be alone should the United States become an autocracy. In fact, that could be the new divide in America going forward — the wealthy center-Left intelligentsia will all flee the country while poor idiots like me have to face the wrath of the autocrat.

It’s the ability for people to just fucking leave the country, that is something I find myself mulling a lot whenever I run the two different scenarios of civil war or autocracy. That modern element of extreme mobility is something that really changes the dynamic when it comes to either autocracy or civil war. It definitely makes autocracy more likely to happen. If you can’t keep someone like Rothkopf to stay in the country to help be something of a Thomas Paine for the fight against tyranny, well, lulz, you’re fucked.

You just drift gradually at first then far faster into an Americanized version of Russia. And I don’t have any simple answer as to how to keep people like Rothkopf in the country when push comes to shove. This is an even more extreme problem if we go the civil war route. If things grow existential, we’re really going to need thinkers like Rothkopf figure out how Blue States might win a civil war.

Or, put another way, in the end, no matter what happens, autocracy or civil war, it’s going to be broke ass motherfuckers like me who will have to step up and figure out how to bring back liberty and democracy. It won’t be people who can afford to leave like David Rothkopf who found the Third Republic, it will be poor morons like me.

The GQP’s Malevolent Magical Thinking


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not suggesting you should not vote. Please do! But going forward, you have to put your political actions in context. The United States is an autocracy without an autocrat. What does this mean? It means that, but for the want of a nail, the United States would be transitioning to a full-fledged Russian-style autocratic managed democracy at this very moment.

And, really, if you want to be clear eyed about it, this has really been the case since January 20th, 2017. Trump stress tested every element of our political system and, surprise! he gave half a dozen would-be autocrats the means to turn us into an autocracy once they get into power.

What pains me the most about all of this is that the people who should know better, the people who could single handedly save the Republic — conservative Traditionalists — are aligning with fascism. They are doing so because they are nervous about cancel culture, critical race theory and transgendered children. At the heart of all of this is the macro situation of an Republic slowly transitioning to an autocratic Empire in real time. And at its heart, the fact that Traditionalists would support fascism is more about race and shifting dynamics in gender roles than anything else.

The United States is growing very, very unstable. We’re a powder keg. And anything from Trump being indicted to a major domestic terrorist attack might be enough to cause states to begin the process of leaving the Union, which would prompt a civil war. Which side — Red or Blue — would start to leave the Union at some point in the near future (if we don’t become an autocracy) is still very much up in the air.

Let’s get back to the point of all of this — Republicans are strangling voting as a means of influencing the government. They only think elections that they win are legitimate. They literally only see democracy as a means to and end. If they win, democracy works. If they don’t then they have to “stop the steal.” It’s because of shit like this that I’m reading a huge tome on the rise of Hitler at the moment.

Steve K. Bannon

One person at the forefront of this slow-moving transition to autocracy is Steve K. Bannon. He is doing the hard work in the real world of making sure that on a local level GQP partisans administrate voting. The irony of all of this is, of course, that autocracy is so popular that if he would just cool it, he could very well get his autocratic rule without having to cheat.

But, lulz, fascists will be fascists.

As I keep saying — I have no idea if we’re going to have a civil war or slip peacefully into autocracy. The conditions are there for either eventuality. There is also a small chance that we may be temporarily governed by some sort of military junta as we struggle to avoid either one of the other two options.

So, again, please continue to vote and to be politically active. Please. But also be realistic. See things in context. Figure out what you believe in and are willing to suffer for in the real world. What are you willing to risk your life — and the lives of your family — and scared honor for? When things grow existential, are you going to flee the country or are you going to stand and fight to defend the Republic?

Things are dark and getting darker.

If You Don’t See My ‘Doom Shit’ As Reality, You’re A Fucking Fool


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Can I cancel “Mueller, She Wrote” on a personal level? There I was, listening to Deep State Radio when I heard someone from the Mueller, She Wrote (podcast? Twitter account?) and I let out a loud groan. I did so because that account blocked me for my “doom shit” some time ago and I feel this was uncalled for. If you don’t think Trump is above the law and we are lurching towards a dark future of autocracy or civil war — YOU ARE A FUCKING FOOL.

It’s just annoying. I’m right and I keep being proven right — and yet I got blocked by an account that a lot of blue check Twitter liberals respect. I don’t want to be unblocked — fuck’em — but that doesn’t stop me from being angry that I was wrongly punished for…being right?

What does “Mueller, She Wrote” expect to happen? Trump be indicted? The system working? Well, I hate to break it to them, but even if that happened, there are a dozen younger, more organized and focused would-be autocrats waiting in the wings to finish the process that Trump began. Again, you’re a fucking fool if you somehow thing magically there will be some sort of reset and there’s anyway that pre-Trump life snaps back into place.

Or best bet is we peacefully slip into autocracy and gradually center-Left people — like the people behind Mueller, She Wrote — will simply leave the country because they can. It will be broke ass fuckers like me who have to figure out how to avoid being unpersoned by ICE or The Patriot Front. And I’ll STILL be blocked by Mueller, She Wrote as all of this is happening.

We need to gird our loins for the massive clusterfuck that we’re rushed towards as a nation. It’s ironic that people who use the rubric “Mueller, She Wrote” would STILL think that somehow, magically, someone is going to save us from fascism. No one is going to save us. We have to save our selves.

And by “save ourselves” I mean, prepare for the possibility of civil war.

If we don’t become an autocracy, the only other option is Blue and Red start to murder each other in cold blood for political reasons. That’s it. In my eyes, I’m not peddling “hysterical” “doom shit,” I’m being something of a pragmatic realist.

We are so totally, completely fucked because white Christian conservatives are unnerved by the rise of what’s going on in Blue Cities and they’re willing to burn our democratic republic to the ground to prevent scary center-Left POC from “canceling them” on a personal basis.

Fuck Mueller, She Wrote. At least I’m seeing things for what they are, not what I “hope” they might be. Ugh.

Liz Cheney’s Principled ‘Front Stabbing’ Is Turning Me Into A Stan


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Mooch talked of respecting people such as himself who did “front stabbing” instead of “back stabbing.” Well, while I totally disagree with Liz Cheney almost everything, her absolute principled attack on Trump and MAGA is a refreshing change of pace.

U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)

In fact, that’s exactly what America needs at the moment.

But, I fear, because we’ve moved past the event horizon of tyranny, nothing that even Liz Cheney can do at this point is going to prevent us from either becoming an autocracy or having a civil war.

So, that leaves Cheney potentially being thrown into the next level of American politics should there be a civil war-level crisis at some point between now and January 2025. And, at this point, I would note that we should not sleep on the possibility of a civil war happening a lot sooner than you might think.

If Trump faces, at last, some criminal accountability for anything from January 6th to, pick anything else he might have done, or if Trump is named Speaker of the House, then the country buckles into chaos in a way not seen since the end of the first American Civil War.

It would be then that she would shine. It would, of course, be very ironic if such a thing happened, but it is possible. If one of the most conservative members of the Republican Party were to save the Republic as a part of Blue State leadership, well, that would be a bonkers historical flipping of the script.

Mike Pence’s Potential John Dean Endgame (Which He Will Never Do)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is a testament to how fucked things are in America right now that the thing that should happen, Mike Pence shiving Trump politically, isn’t probably going to happen.

Pence is never going to be a modern day John Dean.

Pence is the one person with the means, motive and opportunity to play John Dean in the Trump Show. If he were to politically immolate himself and turn state’s witness against Trump as some sort of Hail Mary pass to position himself to be the 2024 Republican nominee, then I would feel a whole lot better about where we are headed as a country.

But I think to think that this is in any way possible is to fall into the now-dead post-Watergate narrative where someone, somewhere breaks and does the right thing for the country out of guilt, or shame or principles or whatever. That just isn’t going to happen.

Watergate, it turns out, was a very specific set of circumstances. A lot of things went wrong for Nixon on both a political and personal level that simply are not practical. The press after Watergate became so cocky and started to believe it’s own…press…that they thought any major political scandal going forward would follow the same narrative.

After the Mueller Report was a bust, that was proven to be total bullshit. Trump is now above the law politically and he’s just as likely to become Speaker in 2023 as he is to be elected president in 2024.

So, while it would otherwise make total sense for Pence to be a modern day John Dean…just don’t see it happening. I say this, even though logically the only way Pence has any shot of being president is to rebrand himself as a Trump slayer and change the political equation so he is a more palatable option than the fascists of DeSantis, Hawley, Pompeo or Cotton.

If he could somehow destroy MAGA, then Pence a ticket of Pence / DeSantis makes a huge mount of sense. But we’ve passed the tyrannical event horizon. There is no stopping MAGA other than a civil war at this point. But that high risk, high reward option is so horrific I don’t like to think about it.

Life In Weimar America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m growing exasperated with Twitter liberals who are completely oblivious to how popular the prospect of white autocratic rule is among a lot of Americans — especially the ever-crucial “Traditionalist” vote.

We have the makings of a massive clusterfuck in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

Look at it this way — it’s possible that we could have cold, hard proof that Trump is criminally exposed for the January 6th insurrection and Republicans still win the House in 2022 and Trump still becomes speaker. Speaker Trump will impeached both Biden and Harris repeatedly and continue to stoke violence at every turn.

And, what’s more, given our status as an autocracy without an autocrat, even if you somehow magically neutralized Trump, the MAGA movement is so potent that someone else would step in to finish the job he started. In a sense, Trump has already wrapped up his historical job — show others that America is ready for autocracy.

But wait, there’s more.

Our transition into autocracy could still be bungled and we end up using WMD on ourselves and sending the whole world hurtling off a precipice into a dark and unknown future.

History has awoken. And either you see how dire things are, or you don’t. They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, and so it is at least possible that things will be blown up rather abruptly. At some point between now and January 2025, everything we take for granted could be suddenly put into question.

Everything could grow existential. A lot of the folly of the modern center-Left were the issue of proper use of pronouns is more important than defeating real-world fascism will come to and end. Even your most fey latte swilling hipster will sit up and take notice with a gun is put in their face and they can’t use the Internet because of an EMP burst.

I have no easy answers for you. Get ready, is all I can say.

Proposal: A ‘Radical Moderate’ Podcast to Fight Fire With Fire Against Bannon’s War Room


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

American politics is dead. The two sides’ positions have hardened to the point that if you try to talk to politics to with someone you disagree with — you just start screaming at each other.

Steve K. Bannon

The two sides no longer believe the same facts or live in the same political reality. There is absolutely nothing — NOTHING — that can get the people who are needed, Traditionalists, to make common cause with libtards like me. Nothing. They’ve made their decision and that decision is autocracy.

In other words, we’re fucked.

The last time this happened in America was the late 1850s. We’re careening towards autocracy or civil war. That’s it. The worrisome aspect to all of this is the MAGA New Right cocksuckers have a huge head start in the real world. Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast is a one-stop-shop of treason and hate. He’s telling his “shock troops” what to do in the real world so, when the time comes, he can flip a switch on an “administrative coup.”

What’s more, Trump is so popular and has such an absolute vise grip on the fascist Republican Party that he probably won’t even have to cheat to win in 2024. And he could even become Speaker of the House in 2023.

As such, we need something to counter Bannon. MAGA has the War Room, we need, I don’t know, The Radical Moderate podcast. Something like that. Something catchy devoted to helping people figure out what they’re going to with these last twilight years before we either peacefully transition into autocracy or we have a civil war.

Someone needs to do this. I would do it but I have no friends and no one likes me. And I’m poor. But I’m also very frustrated that we’re allowing Bannon and his hateful cocksuckers to steal a march on us in the real world while we’re wrapped up in writing Twitter threads with “booms” that don’t effect change in the real world where it matters.

One thing we have to accept is the January 6th Commission could lay out exactly what happened — to the point that Trump is found criminally culpable — and Republicans will STILL win the 2022 midterms, one way or another. So, lulz.

Anyway. What do I know.

Not Great, Jon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a fan of Jon Favreau and Pod Save America, but today’s pod where they talk about what to do about the looming crisis of 2024 left me cold. What I fear is happening is I’m becoming subtly radicalized as it becomes clear that voting is slowly dying as a method to effect change in our politics.

When confronted with how batshit insane the events leading up to 2024 – 2025 might be, Favreau simply said we have to make sure our allies are in position to prevent the Fire Next Time.

There are a lot of problems with this type of thinking when Steve Bannon is out there doing the hard work in the real world of strangling our democracy on the local level. This thinking goes along with the, “Well, I guess we just have to win more elections” type of thinking that is going to do us no good going forward.

It is inevitable that the the Republican fascists will again get power. Then what. If you add aggressive voter suppression, the seizing of elections by Republican state legislatures and, and, and, and, then “just have more votes” is not a logical solution.

But what would be a logical solution?

Well, as I keep saying — I don’t write for VOX, so I don’t know.

On an abstract level, I would first figure out what you believe in enough in the real world to suffer for it — maybe on an existential level — if things get bad enough. Find people who agree with you politically and start to game out what you’re going to do in 2024 – 2025 if we really do face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

For the time being, I don’t have any concrete solutions for you.

Just get ready and prepare.

A Modest Proposal: A Blog (Or Podcast?) Devoted To The Rise of Fascism In The US Is Needed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Absolutely no one listens to me. And I don’t have any money. But I do have vision and passion. I keep wanting to start a blog (or podcast?) and absolutely nothing ever comes of it. And, so, this is just another failed attempt at the moment. Until it isn’t.

There is a very specific beat, the “doom shit” beat, that I think needs to be covered extensively by a blog (or podcast.) If I could get New York Magazine or undead Gawker to either give me a job writing about this particular troubling situation or if they could just do it so I could read it, either one would be fine.

But, I’m a nobody. An absolute nobody.

I miss the old Gawker.

And, yet, my gut tells me that if you founded a blog (or podcast?) hyper focused on things like Steve Bannon’s podcast, or any number of other horrible trends floating around, I feel it would be a success.

I think I’m going to try to contact places like undead Gawker and New York Magazine to see if I can at least get them to hire someone, anyone to cover this beat so I can read their stuff.