This v-log is just me rambling about this ever-so-interesting theory.
— Shelton Bumgarner 🔗 (@bumgarls) September 9, 2018
Let me be clear — I don’t think it was Mike Pence who wrote the NYT’s op-ed released today. There are any number of reasons why this is the case, one of them being the actual document itself says the person wanted anonymity because they might lose their job. Who is the only person the president can’t fire in his cabinet?
Having said that, lets wander through tinfoil hat town and break down why it MIGHT be Pence.
1. The Mid-Terms Are Fast Approaching
Pence is the only person who might want to hurry things up a little bit with Trump and attempt to bring things to a head before November. What better way to do that than to slice the boil just as the political silly season is heating up? What’s the best way to get Trump to quit before November, making you president?
Write an op-ed in the NYT that you know will eventually, inevitably lead to you.
Because we know we’re going to find out who wrote it sooner rather than later.
The use of this otherwise rarely used word is either a really dumb mistake by someone who writes for a living, or the mistake of politician who isn’t thinking that clearly about how to hide their tracks. That’s why I think it’s more likely to be someone like Pence than, say, a high level staffer such as a speech writer.
3. Pence Would Become President
This would be pretty extraordinary. If Pence wrote the op-ed knowing damn well he would be outed nearly immediately, then this would be a Constitutional Crisis of the highest order. Of all thing things that might force Trump from power before the 2018 mid-terms, this would be it. Pence has been a water carrier for Trump since his selection and for him to turn on Trump in such a manner would shake the nation to its core. I have read the piece in Pence’s voice in my head and it definitely fits his speaking cadence at times. But at other times, it doesn’t.
Having said all that, the only person I can think of of note besides Pence would bet Mattis. If Mattis wrote the piece, then, that, too, would be of historical significance. Anyone else on the Trump team simply doesn’t have the respect and gravitas necessary to strike a mortal political blow to Trump
Here is me ranting about the possibility of The Pence Pivot. That’s the idea that people who previously supporter Trump will say they voted for Pence to begin with. But we’ll see. I don’t know what is going to happen one way or another. It will be interesting to see what happens.
Ok, maybe it won’t be all that soon, but it does seem inevitable that at the very moment people like me get to gloat that everything we’ve been saying about Trump from the beginning is true, the GOP will pivot to Vice President Mike Pence and say Donald Trump was worth it because Pence will now be president.
Like I said, we got a ways to go before that happens. It could be years, in fact, before the Vichy Republicans finally, finally get a backbone and start to think about getting rid of Trump in any meaningful manner. That doesn’t begin to address any number of twists and turns that could happen between now and then. A wag the dog major regional war in Iran or North Korea. Or any number of other distractions that will draw out and prolong this tragic episode in American history.
But there will be people the moment it is obvious that Trump is doomed — probably whenever The Resistance happens to flip Congress enough to do the deed itself — who won’t blink an eye in going from defending Trump to singing the praises of Pence.
While there are some advantages to Pence like he’s sane and he actually has a traditional conservative ideology that he follows, there are some serious downsides that will probably lead to trouble down the road. He is so extreme in his conservative ideology that nothing good will come of it. The divisions that Trump has stoked and benefited from will still be there under a Pence administration. I mean, it’s not like all the people who have been alienated because of politics are suddenly going to hold hands around a campfire the moment Pence becomes president.
And, remember, should Pence become president, it will be after a long, drawn out and devastating scorched earth political war on the part of Trump and his ilk. I just don’t see Pence being up to the challenge of healing the wounds that Trump has caused.
Apparently, Pence’s favorite president is Andrew Johnson and it would be truly ironic if, by the time Trump finally is impeached and convicted that The Resistance is so riled up that they come after Pence for no other reason than, well, they’re pissed off. This would bring up the bizarre situation — should the Senate be so polarized that they can’t approve his replacement — that we might have effectively a legal, Constitutional Coup whereby the Congress gets rid of Pence for political reasons and Nancy Pelosi becomes president.
This is a huge longshot. It’s very, very unlikely to happen. As is, in real terms, the likelihood that Trump will be impeached and convicted in the first place. But it is, at least possible. Though I side on the possibly that the Vichy Republicans would be more likely to impeach and convict Trump between election day and the new Congress being sworn in late 2018 just so they would have the opportunity to seat the new veep.
Though there is the huge, huge longshot that maybe, just maybe, the Vichy Republicans in late 2018 out of sheer desperation might convince Trump to step down in exchange for Pence naming Ivanka Trump as Veep. That would be really bad, but if things got desperate there’s a small chance it might happen.
But the whole point is — there isn’t likely to be any healing over Trumplandia because there will never be a point when Trump supporters admit that this whole experiment was an abject, avoidable quirk. This has got to be the worst mistake by the American electorate since Prohibition and there will never be that moment in time when both The Resistance and Trumplandia agree that Trump was a tragic mistake.
What will happen, instead is, The Resistance will be celebrating the end of Trumplandia at the very moment Trumplandia will morph into Pence-istan. Or something. A new, just as divisive concept will rise from the ashes of Trumplandia as all the Bible-thumpers run around like a chicken with its head cut off praising Jesus that a New Age has arrived where all there home school children can finally be forced into gay conversion therapy should they come out.
So we will go through all this rigmarole politically, probably for years and we will never have that moment of bi-partisan clarity when we realize, together, as a nation, that Trump was a fluke, a horrible mistake that we now have to somehow fix the damage that was caused by it.
Instead, we’ll go to our individual corners, lick our wounds and go back at it. It will probably, at least on Twitter, take a few seconds for that to happen. Probably the duration of time between when the Senate finally convicts Trump and when Pence is sworn in.
Let that sink in.
Shelton Bumgarner is the editor and publisher of The Trumplandia Report. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail.com.