As I’ve repeatedly said — I got Trump wrong. But I was not alone. In fact, the people who voted for Trump in 2016 got him wrong too. And that’s the thing people like me going into the 2020 election totally misjudged — we thought Trump was an autocrat when he was just a fucking idiot.
The biggest mistake that Trump made was he did not strike when any other would be autocrat would have struck — in the summer of 2020. This is where Trump’s innate stupidity and laziness comes in. This is where him being nothing more than a vessel for white rage, rather than him being a Great Man comes in.
The moment that Trump let the election be called for Biden, was the moment he not only lost in the traditional political sense, but also when he started to panic. So, from that point in November to January 6th, Trump and his goons thrashed around, looking for some way to stage a self-coup, or autogolpe. The plan was something along the lines of, Trump would incite the insurrection and either that would be enough to browbeat Pence into not doing his job, or somehow something would go wrong in a big enough manner that Trump could literally stage the first autogolpe in American history. (In a very ham-handed manner.)
But everything — thankfully — went wrong for them on the day of. Pence, weirdly enough, did the right thing. And there were no counter-protesters to at the Capitol to give Trump a cause belli when it came to overthrowing the government via calling a “National Security Emergency.”
The key issue is what are we going to going forward?
When Trump’s autogolpe failed, the United States entered a very strange era where we’re an autocracy without an autocrat. We’re living in Weimar America. The failure of the January 6th autogolpe radicalized the Republican Party and set the stage for us to either slip peacefully into autocracy in four years or to have a civil war.
And, at the moment, it really could go either way. For the time being, I think we’re going to become an autocracy. But there is a small chance that things will get out of control and one side or the other will begin to leave the Union and we’re going to bomb ourselves into the Stone Age.
I wish there was something I could do on a personal basis to help prevent either one of those outcomes, but there isn’t. There’s no democracy defending organization to counter The Patriot Front. We need one, but it doesn’t exist. And, at the moment, our best bet is there’s something akin to a WW3 that so jiggles our domestic dynamic that Democrats can survive in power long enough for some severe structural problems in the United States to be fixed.
Absolutely no one listens to me. Absolutely no one cares what I think. And, with my luck, should anyone ever notice that my dire predictions for America’s future are, in fact, rapidly becoming a reality, they still won’t care because I’m a kook. I mean, it’s not like I write for Vox or anything. I need to work on my received English vocal fry for that to work — have to have that air of authority in my voice.
But the thing I think about all the time now is how the MAGA New Right would have to be EXTREMLY STUPID to push us into a Second American Civil War. It would be so stupid that I find myself reviewing over and over in my mind how something so dumb could possibly happen.
And, yet, Trump has time and again proven that he really is a massive self-own artist. He always takes the path of most stupid. He always says the quiet part out loud. So, I could see him at some point in late 2024, early 2025, about to become president again — and he blows it. He is such a fucking dickhead to the Blue States as he transitions the country to autocracy that states begin to pop off of the Union, probably starting with California.
Then I could see a form of revolution race through Blue States and we’re going to the show — civil war. Given the wide array of advantages that the Blue States have over Red States, I then could see Red States begin to use WMD on Blue States to make up the difference.
And THAT would be just the beginning.
One thing I find myself falling into is a sense that 2ACW would be just like the first with a clear beginning – middle – end, when, in fact, it could be far, far more muddled. You could see the most powerful nation in the world fall into a series of warlord – controlled areas and regional alliances. Race war in the South would be a real possibility. We’re talking fucking Turner Diaries levels of bullshit.
So, to that extent, the Republican Party has a Trump problem. If someone like DeSantis (who at least one person in my family loves so much that they want to “vote three times for”) is the nominee, then we really do slip peacefully into autocracy.
And let me note at that this point that I’m aware that I sound “hysterical” and got Trump and 2020 wrong, so why should anyone listen to me now? All I can say is, if we have to wait until I’m actually right for once for Traditionalists to make common cause with libtards, then, guess who is dead in a ditch because ICE got mad at them and who isn’t?
It is the refusal of political Traditionalists to not always, always, always succumb to negative polarization and to never take the threat of fascism seriously that forces me to read a book about the rise of Hitler. And that’s the thing — there is every reason to believe that we’ll turn into a fascist state peacefully just like Germany in the 30s.
In fact, all the momentum at the moment is for that very thing to happen. But there remains a little, nagging voice in my mind that tells me we just don’t know yet which way things will go.
The last time I felt this politically powerless, I started writing a novel which has now turned into FOUR novels. I just wish there was some sort of organization I could join that was preparing for the Battle Royale of 2024 – 2025. But, as far as I know, there isn’t a freedom defending counter-part to the bonkers hatred of The Patriot Front.
Who knows?
So, I dunno.
I guess I’ll just have to throw myself into reading about the rise of Nazism and the beginning of the first Civil War. Something, anything that I feel will help me prepare for our coming very dark future.
Or, maybe, I’m being impatient.
It could be that at some point closer to 2024 some sort of center-Left group will pop up in the real world that will try to figure out how to save the Republic should the absolute worst happen and we really do either slip peacefully into autocracy or have a fucking civil war.
I’ve already written at great length about how I joke all the time that if The End comes, I’ll either be the first person to die on the first day or I’ll be the guy who brings civilization (America?) back from the brink. Let me tell you a little story about myself that proves — at least to me — why I think this is so.
Many moons ago, I was at a bar in Seoul. It was about midnight and I was in a really bad place in my life. The bar was just up the hill from the main bar in the Haebangchon neighborhood of Seoul called The Orange Tree. Suddenly, everyone on the other side of the bar from me, the ones near the windows jumped up and rushed out the door. Curious, I walked over to the door to see what was going on. Much to my surprise, just down the hill, the second story window of The Orange Tree had flames coming out of it. Without thinking about it, I rushed down the hill, yelling, “Someone call Korean 911.” I got to the bar’s door, and it was locked. The door was glass with a mesh of steal re-enforcement. I grabbed a fire extinguisher and started smashing through the glass. Of course, I cut myself on my wrist right next to my veins and I stopped. I could have saved the day, but didn’t. Still hate that I stopped.
But the point is, I’m an idiot and rush towards danger, not away from it. I like to think that I work well in a crisis — five years of having every day be a crisis in South Korea will do that to you — and if civil war comes, I know what I’m going to be doing — trying to help the Blue State war effort in any way I can.
That’s pretty dark, though. Hopefully — hopefully! — it won’t come to that. Maybe I’ll sell these four novels I’m working on and I’ll be able to escape the clutches of autocratic President Ron DeSantis.
The American center-Left has to go beyond angry Twitter rants and move into the more difficult stage of figuring out what the fuck we’re going to do in the real world. The first thing we have to do is do triage. Things aren’t great.
American democracy is in its twilight.
Not only is autocracy very, very popular with huge swaths of the American body politic, you have Steve Bannon actively working on an “administrative coup.” So, it’s very possible that Trump is going to win fair and square without the aid of Bannon’s shenanigans.
So, what does that mean for people who believe in Lincoln’s dream?
We’re fucked.
If there isn’t a civil war, then I would suggest if you can to leave the country. Everyone who doesn’t believe in autocracy is going to leave the country gradually anyway, so lulz. For a lot of people, autocracy is an abstract that is difficult to understand in real terms. That is, of course, until ICE or The Patriot Front starts knocking heads and then, suddenly, the difference between autocracy and democracy becomes a lot more clear.
So, if we slip peacefully into autocracy, we simply gradually become identical politically to Russia and that’s it. In a generation President DeSantis will be eying a chunk of Canada in an effort to secretly have some sort of defense against a warming earth. (Or something.) Form follows function.
Now, we come to the other, more horrific possibility — civil war.
I still don’t think we’re going to have a civil war. And, yet, Trump IS a lazy idiot and the MAGA New Right IS rather bloodthirsty. So, it’s possible to imagine a scenario where the fascists self-own and Blue States are forced to deal with the existential. If that happens, then you have a lot of concrete things to address.
A lot of the excesses of the identity politics, or cancel culture, or whatever the fuck you want to consider will burn off pretty quick when you’re too busy bombing yourself into the stone age through seized WMD to think about your pronouns.
The same dynamic of the first Civil War or WW2 will be at play. Every able bodied person will have to contribute to the war effort. Everything will be thrown up in the air and everything will be up for grabs. There could be a race war in the South. New York City could declare itself a free state. The United States could have a civil war and there not be any sort of clear endgame.
We could just break up into a number of waring states with various shifting alliances and there won’t be any re-uniting of the nation. A lot would depend what California decides to do. If it just leaves the Union because it can then, we’re really fucked. But if it stays and fights, then it can be the Blue State arsenal of democracy.
Things would get a lot more radical. During the civil war, the two sides would grow more radical. In Blue States, especially, suddenly politics would start to work with a big bang because there are a lot — a lot — of popular policies that Blue States want to enact but haven’t been able to because of Republicans.
I don’t want a civil war. But there comes a point, much like 1860 – 1861, when history makes that choice for you. We have to do everything in our power to prevent and avoid a civil war.
But we also need to begin to game out what we’re going to do should one start at some point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.
One of the most frustrating things of late is seeing how fucking clueless some of the name brand Twitter “Resistance” accounts continue to be about Trump. While they’re sucking their own cocks with lengthy, breathless Twitter rants, bonkers MAGA New Right traitors like The Patriot Front are preparing in the real world for real world eventualities.
Twitter liberals still think they can just mentally masturbate their way to single handedly holding Trump accountable and saving American democracy from certain doom.
I mean, what the fucking what?
We have to see things for what the are, not how we believe them to be. The United States is only a democracy now because of a quirk of fate. And, if you want to be charitable, maybe Mike Pence simply doing his job. Otherwise, Trump would be in his second term and we would be talking about who his hand-picked successor was going to be and the upcoming Constitutional Convention to pass a “balance budget amendment.”
Huge swaths of the American political system want autocracy. Everyone from plutocrats to “real (white) Americans” in the Heartland want an autocracy. Some of them want an autocracy without even realizing that by supporting the MAGA New Right that’s exactly what they’re going to get.
Only when it becomes personal — a family member who won’t shut the fuck up about how President Ron DeSantis is a fucking tyrannical cucksucker, perhaps — will they sit up and take notice. This will be happening, of course as said family member is being taken away by ICE for God only knows what to happen to them. Then it will be to late. I, I mean, THEY, will be dead, or tortured or whatever the fuck ICE is going to start doing to be people who dare challenge the autocrat.
Or maybe it won’t be ICE. Maybe it will be the freikorps of The Patriot Front who will be doing autocrat President Ron DeSantis’ bidding. But the fact will remain — the people who could have saved American democracy by making common cause with libtards NOW, won’t fucking do it because they tacitly support the policy of the autocrat.
So, people like me are fucked.
Either I get out of the country while I still can or prepare to cross the autocrat. I guess if you really wanted to get dark, you might suggest that I could join the Blue States war movement should there be a civil war. All I can do is write and speak well….and that never did anything for anyone, right? Wink.
The Republicans Party is now fascist. By definition, the moment they gain power again, they’re never letting it go. Add to this cold hard fact the additional fact that Trump is turning the Republican Party into his own personal dream board and, well, lulz.
We’re fucked — democracy doesn’t die in the darkness in America, it dies in broad daylight because no one is willing to confront Republicans for the fascists they are.
Or, even more dark, there really isn’t anything we can do to fix this problem short of a civil war. MAGA New Right Republican voters want an autocracy so badly that every election is nothing more than yet another opportunity to lurch us closer and closer to autocracy.
I do not want a civil war — I really don’t! — but a civil war would be a high risk, high reward option to potentially re-found the USA. We could transition from Lincoln’s Second Republic, to a new American Covenant, based on, I dunno, California?
But I just don’t see that happening, at least at the moment.
What’s more likely to happen is around 2024 – 2025, there will be one last death spasm for democracy, and then that will be it. Wealthy center-Left people will leave the United States en masse until the autocratic (whoever that may be) makes that nearly impossible. America will be a shit hole country that continues to grow more inward looking, poorer, less creative and politically dark.
But.
While I don’t think there is going to be a civil war — the center-Left simply has no leadership at the moment — there is a small chance that Trump and the MAGA New Right might bungle the transition to autocracy (willfully?) for no other reason than they want the opportunity to murder people like me for political reasons. They might grow so blinded by their bloodlust that they fail to see that if they just cooled it and were patient, that they would get everything they wanted via political means.
So, I guess what I’m saying is I go in circles in my mind whenever I think about our 2024 – 2025 fate. Just about when I think there is no way we will have a civil war, I say to myself, “but……”
It could really go either way. It really could.
And, honestly, if history is any guide, usually the difference between civil war and autocracy is probably going to be a multitude of tactical decisions — and dumb mistakes one way or another — committed between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.
Also, as I keep saying — Trump is so stupid and lazy that by definition him running again increases the chances of civil war dramatically. If it’s DeSantis (or anyone else) who is the Republican nominee in 2024, then I can just shrug and start to figure out if I can get out of the country before ICE rounds me up and shoots me in the back of the head.
If you want my opinion on the chances of that the United States will slip peacefully into autocracy, I will give you the following allegory.
Suppose someone from the future actually popped up and it was provable. How would history address this situation? How would the average person? The idea of the reality of time travel could very well be too much for everyone’s poor minds to process and it would be time travel, not first contact that caused mass chaos.
The point of this allegory is how would the average person process the idea that the United States is no longer a democracy? If Trump (or someone like him) was brazen enough in their transformation of the United State into Trumplandia, would the average person shrug or would they freak out? Would they process the presence of time travel calmly or would it break their brain?
It’s my inability to figure out how the average American would process the death of 240 odd years of American democracy that leaves me unable to figure out if we would have a civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe or if we’re just going to become an autocracy peacefully and with our eyes wide open.
Let me be clear — I definitely don’t want a civil war. I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas.
But, fuck, would it be sad if Trump (or someone like him) was able to take away our democratic birthright in broad daylight…and nothing happened. For the moment, that’s definitely what seems like what is going to happen.
If it’s Ron DeSantis who does the transformation, it’s likely to be so subtle that, lulz, the average Traditionalist conservative won’t even notice or care that we’re no longer a democracy because they’re complicit and like, nay, LOVE his policies. Only when a loved one say, ME, won’t shut the fuck up about what a fucking cocksucker autocrat DeSantis and ICE swoops in and puts me in a re-education camp without due process with these Traditionalists realize that maybe they should have made common cause with libtards like me when they had the opportunity.
But by then, of course, it will be too late. Way too late.
Saying this over and over again is growing tiresome — Trump is above the law. We just don’t have the political will to do anything about the fucker. We know what he was up to in the lead up to January 6th Insurrection and it’s a lulz.
The man was actively attempting to destroy American democracy and was only thwarted through a combination of how pell-mell the execution of the self-coup was and Pence simply not going along with the plan at the last moment.
And now Trump, like an face-hugging xenomorph from Alien, is hell bent on turning the Republican Party into a shiv to murder American democracy once and for all no later than, say, January 2025. Remember, Trump is so popular that he probably will win the 2024 election fair and square — no cheating needed.
Yet, of course, none of this has happened yet.
The thing that “hysterical” people like me get dinged for is we make arguments that make sense, then don’t come to fruition for this or that unexpected event or historical miscalculation. I mean, how could I have known in the fall of 2019 that a pandemic would throw everything up in the air? How could I have known that, in the end, Trump was too lazy and stupid to do even the most basic of autocratic moves going into the 2020 election?
So, he lost.
And, honestly, this time around, it’s very possible that something similar could happen. I mean, if Trump doesn’t run, then the likelihood that we’ll simply slip peacefully into autocracy grows. And there are plenty of people who will shrug if we become an autocracy and won’t event acknowledge the transition until it affects them on a personal level.
Then, of course, it will be way, way, way too late for people like me who simply will never fucking shut up about, say, what a piece of shit President Mike Pompeo is. Fucking cocksucker.
A little lite reading.
Anyway, while all the signs point to something akin to a Fourth Turning / Great Reset in roughly the 2024 – 2025 timeframe, it hasn’t happened yet. But all the metrics are pointing to such a thing happening. All the lights are flashing red. Get ready.
Let me make one thing clear — I’m using the term “Great Reset” in a far different way than, say, someone associated with The Patriot Front might. I’m not suggesting any kind of grand global cuck attack on the home and hearth of white Christians (or whatever the fuck they think), I’m talking about everything we take for granted being thrown up in the air.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
It’s now very clear to me that either we slip peacefully in to autocracy around 2024 – 2025 or we have a fucking civil war / WW3. History has awoken from a 70 year coma and it’s pissed. We’re lurching towards a dark future of nothing short of mass chaos. This has been referred to as “The Fourth Turning” but, lulz, whatever.
We’re fucked.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
And, honestly, I can’t tell you what to do to prepare — I don’t write for VOX, after all — but I can give you a hint about how to prepare relative to what I do know.
Figure out what you’re willing to suffer for in the real world.
That’s all the advice I have for you. When the shit hits the fan, there will be no narrative, no value — just survival. And it’s going to be state sponsored chaos, too. If you hold up in the woods somewhere with a lot of guns and ammo, that is only going to get you so far. They’re going to come for you, eventually.
In other words, if you have the ability to bounce to a part of the country that agrees with your politics, take it. Don’t become John Brown somewhere in the hills of a Red State. You’re simply the delaying the inevitable and you’re depriving the Blue States of your talents.
Anyway, again, we are soooooooo fucked. Totally, completely. And, what’s more Republicans run around screaming at the top of their lungs how giddy they are to turn us into an autocracy. And, yet, there are still people who refuse to admit it.
Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:
It’s not in our nature to have a civil war. For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system. It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024 Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed. Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.
I used to think that Republicans have some sort of huge civil war between its MAGA base and the pro-Ukraine Establishment. But, now, oh boy. It appears that what I thought was going to be a civil war may turn out to be more of just a drunken scuffle.
It seems as though the vast majority of Republicans are going to go all-in with their support for Putin. So, should there be a war between Russia and Ukraine the lines of domestic American politics will be pretty clear — Democrats support Ukraine and Republican support Russia.
If that doesn’t make your head spin, I don’t know what will. After 70 years of ranting about how Russia was a threat to the American way, Republicans are going to collectively throw in the towel because of a fail reality TV star. But, as iI keep saying, all of this is the macro trends associated with a declining empire paying themselves out.
Something like this was going to happen the moment Obama won a second term and white people began to freak out about their imminent loss of power within American society. (Something about Obama’s *second* term freaked white people out the way his first term did not.)
So, now, have a potential situation where the vast majority of Republicans side with America’s historic geopolitical adversary because their presumptive 2024 nominee has such a tight bond to the white conservative volk that they can’t dare cross him, even though his support for Putin is comically unseemly.
I honestly don’t know what to tell you. It’s going to be really weird. But that seems to be the direction we’re going. If there are a number of miscalculations across the board, it could be that it’s THAT that costs Republicans Congress in 2022. (Though, let’s be honest, Republicans have so rigged the system at this point that they’re going to win, even if they don’t win. Or, they’re not going to lose, as is always the cause with autocrats.)
It could be that not even something marketed as WW3 can prevent our decent into autocracy or civil war and, in the end, our civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe only makes a bad WW3 situation worse because we’re going to vaporize ourselves into the Stone Age.
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