America’s Stark Choice: Autocracy Or Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is far less stable on a political level than we realize. If I have to spend this much time thinking about all the different ways we could buckle sooner rather than later, we got a problem. I generally believe that if there’s going to be any kind of modern civil war, it’s going to be in the 2024-2025 timeframe.

And, yet, we have to deal with the bonkers Cyber Ninja recount in Arizona that has the potential to be extremely destabilizing. If they do manage to pull a Trump “victory” out of their butt — which they definitely seem hellbent on doing — then there’s a good chance that Trump will pop out of his hidey-hole and scream at the top of his lungs that this “proves” that he won the 2020 election and, as such, the Biden Administration should be “nullified” (whatever that means.)

What’s more, that’s not the only way we might find ourselves in a hot civil war — the unexpected death of any number of major political leaders, for any reason, would do the same thing at this point.

The point is — the United States is at a breaking point. We’re primed and ready for a collapse of historic proportions pretty much at any point between now and January 2025. It’s pretty easy to imagine that MAGA Republicans in Congress will simply refuse to certify the election of anyone they don’t like and that will be when we face a very, very stark choice: do we become a fascist state or do we find ourselves in a hot civil war?

I don’t particularly want either outcome, but as I keep saying, the issue is no one will have a choice. We’re all going to have to make some existential decisions. There will, at last, be no middle ground. We’re all going to have to pick a side, any side and risk our lives by doing so.

The Post Rona World Is Upon Us: Summer Is Looking Good


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m calling it — it’s going to be a party in the USA on July 4th. That’s when I think Rona will finally be behind us and things will get back to “normal.” Everyone who wants a “jab” as the British would say will get one. Travel will get back to normal. Wealthy people will go back to making poor people like me “curse the bread” and doing secret back channels in the Seychelles.

It’s very possible that the 18 months of Rona will be completely value free. The only thing to come from it all will be a defeat of Donald Fucking Trump at the polls. Otherwise, it will go down the memory hole and we get to enjoy our Weimar America leading up to the final strangling of our democracy by the Nazi Republicans in 2024.

At least, that’s what it seems like.

Really, the only thing I’m nervous about is the age of some of the people in power right now. Prince Phillip is old as fuck. The Queen is no spring chicken. And Joe Biden is almost 80. I hope all of them live for many more years, but we have to be honest with ourselves at some point.

But anyway, the point is, by this fall, it’s very likely it will be like Rona never happened. Republicans, of course, will still be screaming about “cancel culture” and having absolutely no policies other than “fuck your feelings but my feelings are sacred.”

Anyone Who Thinks The Republican Party’s Embrace of Qanon Will ‘Destroy’ It Is Very, Very Naive


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Welcome to Weimar America. The clock is ticking for the American Nazi, er Republican…Party to seize control. Probably in the 2024-2025 time frame. The only thing that will stop it at this point is, I don’t know, the Singularity or First Contact. Or maybe Jesus coming back.

I say this because if you look at the Nazi Party, it was into some pretty bonkers things. It was very much into mysticism and conspiracy theories. The dead hand of history is just too powerful — the bad guys are going to win. We’re doomed and you need to either leave the country or move to a Blue State.

Now.

The next time the Republicans control all the branches of government, we won’t be as lucky as we were last time. Even if it’s Trump that comes back, he’s likely to be just a deranged figure head, with Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton being the organized, youth autocrat who really pulls the strings.

As such, American democracy is dead. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat. Enjoy the few years of a liberal democracy while you can. Once the Republicans take over again, they’re going to weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure, purge the media and start to pull all our troops out of our various bases across the world

Fortress America will be here and American Killing Fields will be just around the corner. In fact, I would say the only thing that might bring down our new autocratic overloads will be their excesses. But Putin has been in power for 20 years now, so there’s no reason to believe President Tom Cotton won’t be president for 20 to 40 years as well. Soon enough, the United States will be identical to Putin’s Russia without even a civil war or a revolution.

It’s over.

Q Nation: ‘The Velvet Fist’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Of all the House Trump: Next Generation people I’m worried about, it’s Lara Trump that seems the most poised to finally strangle American liberal democracy. I say this because she’s demonstrably beautiful, smart and ambition — and something of a proxy for her much-maligned husband Eric Trump. My current thinking is something like this could happen — Lara Trump wins a Senate seat in North Carolina (because she’s actually willing to, like, work, unlike Ivanka) and after a major primary battle with any number of non-Trump autocrats in waiting, we get ourselves The Velvet Fist.

Lara Trump will be the sunny, beautiful exterior while someone like Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton is the “fist” while serving as her veep. This would be very in line with how autocrats work. As you may know, one of the ways Putin has stayed in power for about three decades now is he kept bouncing back and forth between President and Premier.

So that’s one of several options when it comes to how the United States finally lurches into its pre-ordinaed destiny of fascist autocracy. We’ll be so busy thinking, “Oh, Lara Trump would NEVER do that, would she…” that we are totally oblivious that Mike Pompeo (or whomever) is the REAL president behind the scenes who is quickly consolidating power in the 2025 – 2027 time frame. I have really come to believe that all my dystopian nightmares that I predicted during Trumplandia will still happen, it just may be Lara Trump (face) that it happens under.

We’re just not prepared as a nation for the historial sucker punch that is about to happen to us. American liberal democracy is going to be strangled by The Velvet Fist so quickly that by the time we process what just happened, the ICE Camps will be packed full of all the people Q Anon thinks are involved in some sort of evil cabal. (Which, oddly enough is pretty much just Jewish people all over again…ugh.)

And, really, Lara Trump instead of Ivanka Trump would square the circle of how Q Nation could start killing The Usual Suspects of Jews, etc without upsetting Ivanka’s tender Jewish sensibilities. She’s so complicit that by the time SHE realizes the monster she’s associated with, she’s going to be sharing a concentration camp with the equally gobsmacked Stephen Miller. Or, put another way, anyone who doesn’t think Q is simply a cover to murder “liberals” who also often happen to be Jewish is an idiot.

But this is all very speculative at this moment. It could be that it’s not the Velvet Fist, but the Orange Fist — our good old pal deranged Trump comes back, but only as something of a Trojan Horse. He would come back tan, ready and rested, but with Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton as he veep. They would, in the background, do all the horrific things I thought Trump would do the first time around.

The point is, again — America is an autocracy without an autocrat. Macro trends just aren’t in our liberal democracy’s favor. Something pretty huge that I can’t sketch out would have to happen to prevent Republicans having another shot at turning us into Q Nation. Again — either get out of the country in the next four years or move to a Blue State.

Things are going to get dark.

Preparing For America’s Inevitable Descent Into Fascist Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, here we are. If ever there was reason to believe the Great Man theory of history, this particular moment in time is it. But for the sheer stunning stupidity and incompetence of one Donald John Trump, America would be little more than a managed democracy like Putin’s Russia. Existing ICE camps would begin to welcome liberals (or anyone who’s generally a loudmouth like me) and we would continue our steady march towards Fortress America.

But Trump just wasn’t up to the task.

As such, as I keep saying, the United States is now an autocracy without an autocrat. About half the population longs for the white security of a Christian Entho state that re-assures them that they will always be the most politically powerful race in the United States, no matter their dwindling numbers in real terms.

I keep saying — America’s future is South Africa’s past.

There are a few — but significant — unknowns on a macro level for the United States as we stumble into our very own Fourth Reich. Will there be a civil war? How violent will the process ultimately be? How long will the Fourth Reich last and who, specifically, will be the craven thug who finally pulls the plug on the First American Republic?

For me, one question that looms large is — how does one prepare for this dystopian hellscape?

Since we have about four years to prepare, I would first suggest you get a passport if you can. Also, I might suggest you take concrete steps to connect to like-minded people who will be willing to risk things in the real world. When the Fourth Reich comes into existence, it will be so quick as to be something of a historical suckerpunch.

And, really, I might even suggest if you have the means that you make sure you’re living in a Blue State by 2025. That way, should the American autocrat of 2025 bungle things and the Blue States are able to bounce from the Union before he finally consolidates power, at least you’ll be in the right place.

Otherwise, you’re on your own.

Good luck.

The Rise of The American Fourth Reich: Rating Would-Be Fuhrers


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading a book about the rise of Hitler given that the United States definitely has a Weimar Republic vibe to it right now. When it comes to Trump, I totally got him wrong — he was a would-be Hitler (or Putin) but the stress on would-be. He had autocratic and fascist tendencies, but in reality he was just a big old ding-dong.

He was nothing more than a real-life Chauncey Gardner from Being There.

But there are a whole host of men waiting in the wings to do what Trump couldn’t do, despite his impulses: strangle American liberal democracy. Let’s look at who they are.

Lara Trump / Ivanka Trump / Don Jr.
Of all the Young House Trump people, Lara Trump is probably the most dangerous. She’s smart and could probably be very smooth in any type of “Velvet Fist” arragmentment with, say, Mike Pompeo or Josh Hawley. Ivanka and Don Jr are just too vacuous to actually get the nomination. Or not. The likelihood they could pull off such a stunt grows significantly with how much Trump goes with The Patriot Party concept.
Christ Christy
Christy is probably the best of a lot of bad choices. Since Christy would have to bank right in a big way to win the nomination, if he became president, he would probably be an autocrat, but one with a little bit of enlightenment. He would become an autocrat for no other reason than he would need to dance with the one that brung him. His heart probably wouldn’t be in it all that much because he would want to at least pretend to stay within democratic norms.
Ted Cruz
The thing about Cruz is he’s so craven and cynical that even his turn to autocrat would likely have air quotes around it. He would be an autocrat simply because he could be, not because he was all that into it. But the end result would be the same — we would be nothing more than a managed democracy for the foreseeable future.
Mike Pompeo
Pompeo is dangerous. He’s dangerous because he’s smart and seen Trumplandia up close. And he really sees the job as an opportunity to force Jesus to come back by starting a war between Israel and Iran. As such, he’s the real deal when it comes to a would-be fascist leader in the United States. Once he’s elected, there’s no going back. I say this in the context that I expect both houses of Congress to flip in 2022, so in 2025, he would have zero oversight, just like Trump in 2017. He would have a full two years to completely consolidate power and crush any putative “resistance” to him.
Tom Cotton
Cotton is even more dangerous than Pompeo. He’s the real deal when it comes to would-be American autocrats. He’s the autocrat that Trump thought he could be. He’s young enough — and smart enough — that I could see him holding back in 2024 so he could get into a “Velvet Fist” arrangement with either Lara or Ivanka Trump where he would be Veep and let one of them be the “pretty face” of autocracy.
Josh Hawley
As I understand it, it’s Hawley that the MAGA base likes the most after the usual suspects of House Trump. And people who know him call him a fascist. So, in a sense, the only thing stopping him going full Fuhrer on us is his personality. At what end of the autocratic spectrum would he fall? Would he be more of a Putin or more of Hitler? That, I’m afraid, I can’t predict. But what I can predict is it would be Hawley who would flip the switch to turn the existing ICE infrastructure into concentration camps where people like me would be put.

Person X
If there were more conservative celebrities, I would say the real danger is not from any of the above, but someone who is similar to Trump but younger and more focused. James Woods seems the ideal type second generation Trumpian figure to run for POTUS. But he’s kinda old and, to date, doesn’t seem to have any political asperations. Bruce Willis is too nice as is Tim Allen. It would have to be someone who was conservative, frequently played autocratic figures in the media and was actually more than just an empty suit.

Sorry Maggie Haberman, It’s Starting To Look Like Trump MIGHT Not Be The Political Genus You Cooed About


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I never fucking let anything go. Maggie Haberman was weirdly mean to me on Twitter out of the blue and it still smarts. So, she’s become something of a running gag in my content. Anyway, for those of you playing the home game, for about four years, people like The New York Times‘ Maggie Haberman have told us in hushed tones what a fucking political mastermind Trump is.

How things have changed.

Welp, as of right this second, I ain’t seeing it, Ms. Haberman.

I mean, if Internet crank me can think of six different ways RIGHT NOW whereby Trump could stay in office as long as he likes and that ding-dong can’t even figure out one, well, it looks like he was just a very lazy right guy at the right historical place.

Trump is a lot like Hitler in the sense that he simply didn’t really do anything other than use the existing rot in his country’s political system to get what he wanted. Hitler was notoriously lazy. And, if you just look around, you can tell that Trump is pretty lazy, too.

So, about selling your soul to House Trump for access — you got what you wanted, Ms. Haberman, but you will forever be the journalistic equivalent of Leni Riefenstahl…in a sense. What I mean by this is when History judges Trump, she is likely to judge YOU too.

And I’ll freely admit that Ms. Haberman is a far, far better journalist than me. But you’re supposed to have a least a thin veneer of conflict between yourself and the people you report on.

Regardless, I’m just an anonymous Internet crank. No one listens to me, and they probably shouldn’t.

MAGA Is Just Identity Politics For White People


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear, that going to one small MAGA rally in DC does not an expert on the subject make. But it was my first MAGA rally and it made a big impression on me. Then I talked to a relative who is conservative-but-not-MAGA and something occurred to me.

One reason why it’s so fucking hard to deal with MAGA is at its core, it’s identity politics for white people, but you can’t bring that up because they get all defensive and think you’re calling them, personally, racist. What’s more, they don’t even believe in systemic racism — period — so you can’t even bring that up.

Throw in the two sides no longer having a shared reality and, well, you have the makings of a pretty unstable country. And I honestly don’t know how this particular situation fixes itself peacefully. We have about 20 years before the dead hand of demographics finally whittles away at the core of the Republican Party — old people.

What’s more, it’s possible that as brown people grow more “white,” that their natural Catholic conservatism will kick in and, well, we turn into an autocracy no matter what. That could just be our fate now — the United States, on a macro level, is going to become an honest-to-God autocracy in my lifetime.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen.

It’s Comical How Badly House Trump Screwed Up By Not Striking Before The Election Was Called


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trumplandia, we have a problem. While we are now entering the most dangerous political crisis in American history since the fall of 1860, there is something of note we have to talk about: how badly House Trump screwed up by not striking before the election was called.

I have been ranting about how “autocrats never lose” and this is still the case. And it’s still the case that Trump is an autocrat and, by definition, will “not lose.”

And, yet, now that the election has been called there will be severe consequences for that “not losing.” Trump is going to try to use the bully pulpit of the presidency to do exactly what he could have done before the election was called — frame the post-election battle in a way that the average person won’t mind if he mysteriously “doesn’t lose” like all autocrats.

Now that the election has been called, the average person who doesn’t really pay that much attention to politics is going to be shocked when Trump stages a coup — whatever it may ultimately look like — to stay in power. It’s just not as easy for Maggie Haberman to explain Trump’s coup in hushed tones as a stroke of political genius after the election has been called.

But once the shock of political defeat wears off, Trump is probably going to come roaring back and attempt to use all his usual Stormy Daniels tricks to reframe the debate. Rudy will yell on CNN for an hour on a regular basis. The Right Wing bullshit echo chamber will attempt to bend the mainstream media to their will. You, know, the usual media narrative management that has been so successful for House Trump for five years.

And, yet, now that the political act of the election being called by the media has happened, if they try extra-political methods to stay in power — which they will — there’s going to be a civil war / revolution. But as can be seen in how Republicans handled the RBG SCOTUS opening — they really don’t give a fuck. They are so completely blinded by their MAGA ideology that they are oblivious to how they’re going to destroy the United States — or at least the First Republic — if they “catch the car” of keeping Trump in power.

The country is just too polarized right down the middle 50/50 for them to be able to pull it off now without a lot — A LOT — of people dying tragic, needless deaths. But, sadly, the more difficult it is for them to stage a coup, the more radical they will become. They’re going to grow so hysterical that that, in itself, may be what pushes us into a second civil war / second revolution.

MAGA is such a bunch of easily triggered snowflake crybabies that when the shoe is on the other foot, they’re going to what to blow shit up rather than face the cold, hard, fact that the dear leader is going to have to leave office. Given that Trump is probably going to grow more insane and hysterical himself as well, no good will come of any of this.

Our best case scenario right now is Trump attacks and corrupts every single step between now and January 20th and STILL can’t stay in office. Then he totally flips the fuck out and aggressively salts the earth on his way out, pardening dozens — if not hundreds — of his cronies. He fires everyone he hates — even if he can’t legally do so — and gets FBI director Rudy to frogwalk Biden in an attempt to protect his own sorry ass.

If all else fails, he pardons himself and flies AF1 to Pyongyang where he spends the rest of his life snorting coke off hookers’ assholes and telling Kim Jung Un all our secrets.

That’s our best case scenario.

Worse case scenario is Trump and MAGA single-handed force the issue and everyone has to take sides — even if they don’t want to. Then the United States’ First Republic collapses and we spend a few years killing each other.

There is no narrative. There is no value. We will imbue this particular avoidable tragedy with those elements after the fact in a desperate attempt to make ourselves feel better.

Even Our Best Case Scenarios Suck: Trump’s Coming Stress Test Of The Constitution



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even our best case scenario in the next three months sucks. Our best case scenario is something, “In the end, after having nearly destroyed the Consutition in a rabid bid to stay in power, Trump pardons himself and flys AF1 to Pyongyang and quits.”

What I mean by this is, Trump has made it clear he’s going to exhaust every possible option before he leaves office. And it’s reasonable to assume that we have a Vote Certification Crisis and a Elector Intimidation Crisis ahead of us. Trump will use violence and the threat of violence make seem as though he has a chance of actually “legally” staying president, when, in fact, it’s simply the usual “autocrats never lose” situation.

This is all the lull before the storm, I’m afraid. Not only do we have to worry about Trump winning one of his bullshit lawsuits at SCOTUS, we have to worry about Trump starting a war to Wag The Dog or naming Rudy FBI director so he can frogwalk Joe Biden in an attempt to negotiate his own escape from justice.

And all that’s the best case scenario.

The worst case scenario is someone blows something up and TrumpBarr use that as excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act and take “total control.” In essence, there’s something akin to a coup and with that I simply can’t even map out an endgame.

Anything from Trump mysteriously staying power to a actual civil war / revolution could happen should such things happen. As I mentioned, it’s possible that Trump could really flip his lid and start a war with the DPRK or Iran for the sole purpose of making us so distracted that he can be a War President and mysteriously, again, never leave office.

I hope I’m wrong. I often am. But we have to take the possibility of such bullshit seriously.