The Guns Of January: The Current State Of Political Affairs In The United States Is Untenable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something is going to happen. The United States is running on political fumes right now and if history is any guide, someone, somewhere is going to put unexpected stress on the system. It’s almost inevitable at this point.

Or, put another way, while we could very well punt this particular macro crisis in the United States down the road four years, the lines have hardened to such an extent that something that otherwise would not really be a big deal, might spark a sequence of events with no discernable endgame.

I would compare it to Europe mid-1914 right before the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. Europe was a power keg that just needed a spark to explode — and that spark came. The United States is the same way. But, let me be clear to all the MAGA-Patriot Party shithead cocksuckers who think there’s going to be some sort of conservative “revolution” if the Dear Leader doesn’t stay in power for the rest of his life.

There won’t be a conservative revolution.

This.
Is
Not
Going
To
Happen

There’s not going to be a revolution. You may want to fuck your gun, but you’re not going to have a “revolution.” I don’t know why so many fucking idiots in Texas come to this site looking for my dystopian porn about the end of the United States. Fuck you, you idiots.

I will admit that Trump may TRY to stoke civil undress in a big way in the latter days of his administration in a last-ditch effort to stay in power, but, no, there’s not going to be any sort of conservative “revolution” by so-called “patriots” who want lower taxes and “freedom” from fear of being “canceled” when they’re a dick to women or minorities and get caught.

It’s all very frustrating.

When I talk about a “Glorious Revolution” in the United States, I’m NOT TALKING ABOUT A TURNER DIARIES RACE-WAR REVOLUTION YOU FUCKING IDIOTS. I’m talking about Trump, in a spasm of extra-political and extra-legal acts, being overthrown because, well, everyone who isn’t MAGA finally gets tired of his shit an hits the streets, maybe even up to the point of there being a General Strike.

There may be some serious counter-revolution style civil unrest in the United States, but I see that happening more in four years than now. The far Right, while full of abstract hate and rage against “libtards,” simply isn’t well organized yet. They need to marinate in their hate a few more years before they reach SA / SS levels of hate.

If Trump just freaks out at some point between now and January 20th and declares martial law unliterally or starts a war in an effort to “wag the dog” so he can pull a Constitutional fast one on us, he’s not going to be successful. He is going to seriously scare the shit out of us, but he’s not going to be successful. He just isn’t well organized mentally to pull it off.

So, yes, all the elements are there for significant political violence in the United States any moment now. But it will happen in the context of the Mad King being fucking bonkers, not some sort of Right wing revolution where we all sing kumbha over the broiling bodies of liberals. So, fuck you, you fucking cocksucker MAGA shitheads.

Four Days That May Shake The World


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I’m always wrong. Always. I make all these wild predictions and then…nothing. But the following is, if nothing else, entertaining in its own dark, disturbing manner. It’s possible that Jan 3rd to January 6th may be some of the most eventful in American history.

Here’s why:

The one year anniversary of the assassination of Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani is on January 3rd. It’s easy to imagine Iran striking either in the Middle East or the American homeland in retaliation. Depending on what exactly occurred, that, in itself, could be Trump’s “Reichstag Fire” that makes him a wartime president.

Trump is already extremely unhinged right now, and it’s easy to see him wagging the dog right before Congress is set to certify the Electoral College vote on January 6th.

If you throw in Proud Boys in DC flipping out and causing a lot of mayhem in DC on or about January 6th as well, that’s the excuse Trump might need to invoke the Insurrection Act in DC. Additionally, as all of this chaos is going on, Pence might REALLY take things to the next level and nullify the certification vote by not doing him job.

That would really destabilize the country and…then…I don’t know. There are some basic elements of a successful coup that Trump hasn’t done. He hasn’t done his autocratic homework, if you will. So, in a sense, he’s thrashing about in desperation, making everyone else’s life hell because he’s not an autocrat at all, but a deranged ding-dong.

Ugh.

As such, while in the abstract it gives the Far Right a boner to think about how they can overturn the results of the election this way, the moment they actually do anything…it definitely seems everything will fall apart. For no other reason than Trump isn’t even an autocrat, but just a very lucky ding-dong. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat. We need to marinate in our pre-fascist juices for about one more election cycle before we finally descend into a Russian-style managed democracy.

But there’s one thing to keep in mind — Trump is no longer thinking in political terms, but rather strictly in terms of self-preservation. So it’s possible Trump is so deranged that he might force the issue of some sort of coup well before we’re ready and not even the rotting rage found within our political system will be enough to save him.

He may so enrage the 60% of the electorate who don’t support MAGA that all the people who have totally invested in Trump’s rise to power over the last five years might, at last, find him a lability and cut him loose. But what’s more likely to happen is we’re just going to punt all these problems down the road one election cycle and someone like Tom Cotton or Josh Hawley or Mike Pompeo will be the one to finally strangle traditional American democracy.

Trump is not an autocrat.

It’s a very curious situation we’re in for the next few days. And, really, if we make it past January 6th, that’s just the end of the beginning of this shitshow. It’s possible that once Trump doesn’t have ANY hope of overturning the election, he just explodes mentally and things grow extremely dire. So dire, in fact, that we might have some sort of snap impeachment and conviction of Trump, but not without him extracting one last pound of political flesh from the nation on his way out the door.

My fear, of course, is things grow really, really dark. That Trump goes the literal Hitler-in-the-bunker route. I hate to even think about the implications of that, but if we were honest with ourselves, it’s something we would begin to game out.

‘Downfall’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I feel I have a certain insight into Trump’s mind because he reminds me a great deal of my late mother — if you added testosterone and a wealthy Queens upbringing.

Anyway, the thing I learned from my mother’s behavior is people like Trump have a certain power from their instability. You just never know how they’re going to react to something. Are they going to flip out or are they going to take it calmly like a normal human being.

Having said that, there’s an element of Trump’s mentality that we’ve been kind of eyes wide shut about. Let’s call it the “Downfall” endgame. In this scenario, Trump’s mind falls into a logic trap and he snaps mentally. It would be at this point that he scares the shit out all of us.

So, let’s say his last-ditch effort to overturn the election fails on Jan 6th. He has about two weeks to wreak havoc. He could go transactional on Twitter in any number of different ways. He would demand MAGA murder liberals in cold blood. He could demand secessionist conventions in Red States. Or, things could get far, far darker.

He might start to get really, really passive aggressive on Twitter. To the extent that he starts talking about his ability to launch nuclear weapons and how he’s “protecting America” by being in office. If that wasn’t enough to scare the shit out of everyone, he might start to whine about how everyone hates him and liberals would be happy if he was dead.

I’m not joking — this is a real possibility.

This brings up the idea that Trump could very well hold up in the White House and refuse to leave. While a lot of Twitter liberals seem to express a certain glee at this prospect, in reality having to coax Trump out of the White House isn’t exactly something I would like to see the country have to go through.

But it gets worse.

What if, by that point, he’s so far gone that he goes the Downfall route. The implications of this would be staggering. It would be his final selfish act. Because it would be something that would-be Patriot Party people could hang an ideological agenda on.

Trunp-as-martyr would scramble our politics for a generation.

And, yet, that scenario is so fucking dark that I don’t like to think about it for no other reason than in the end Trump is a physical coward and for him to do something so drastic would mean he REALLY had lost his mind.

Anyway, he’s something I wrote about trying to get Trump out of the White House a few years ago.

9/10ths
a story fragment of a possible near future
by Shelton Bumgarner

April, 2019

The eyes of the world were on the White House.

Just moments before, President Donald J. Trump, 45th president of the United States, had been convicted by 67 members of the Senate for a whole list of high crimes and misdemeanors. Trump had for weeks now been ranting on Gab about his case in the Senate, bouncing back and forth between threats to start a war with Iran or the DPRK and not-so-subtle hints that he might take his own life should he be convicted by the Senate.

And, now, at last, the moment of truth had arrived.

Trump legally, at least, was no longer president, but he had been oddly silent since the verdict had been announced with great fanfare from the well of the Senate. Trump’s conviction had come after months of investigations on the part of the now Democratic Congress. The length and breath of Trump’s malfeasance discovered by these hearings had rocked the nation to its very core. On more than one occasion, MAGA talking heads on cable news had been interrupted by astonishing breaking news that left them, for once, unable or unwilling to defend the president.

The hearings had ground on for months to such an extent that Trump’s approval had slowly drifted to the 20s and stayed there consistently. Trump’s support was now made up of the very rich and the very poor. Oddly, despite Trump’s near constant demands on Twitter for violence on the part of his supporters, little, if any was reported. Trump had grown so frustrated that he had all but abandoned Twitter at one point for the more receptive Gab social media platform. Though on more than one occasion Rudy Giuliani had made it very clear it was within the rights of the president to declare martial law if he deemed it in the best interests of the nation. More than one delegation of Senate Republicans had gone to the White House to explain to Trump that he was going to be convicted, no avail. Trump made it clear to them, in not so many words that his simply living in the White House made him president, a sentiment best expressed by the legal saw that, “Possession is 9/10ths of the law.”

Finally, a post to Gab came out: “My so-called ‘conviction’ is the work of the Deep State and as such illegitimate. I remain president.”

This set off a chain of events, the likes of which Americans had never seen. Suddenly, everyone on Twitter became a Constitutional scholar as everyone studied the exact wording of the Constitution as to what happens if the president is removed from office by the Senate. The wording is quite clear: he or she is no longer president and that’s it.

Nowhere in the Constitution did it explain what to do if the president simply decided to ignore the Senate. What’s more, nowhere in the Constitution did it state what to do with the nuclear launch codes should a president be removed from office and he refuse to accept the decision of the Senate.

The next few hours were chilling as they were surreal for millions of people not just in the United States but around the globe. The issue of Trump’s physical access to America’s nuclear launch codes was suddenly at the forefront of everyone’s mind. Though it was finally announced that while the nuclear football remained in Trump’s possession, Sec. of Defense Mattis had ordered the American armed forces to stand down for the duration of the crisis.

Trump, on Twitter, was as defiant and unhinged as usual.He threatened to kill himself. He threatened to start a nuclear war. He vowed to declare martial law.

The usual suspects on cable news did their best to spin all of this for Trump. As an anxious nation waited for the now former president to leave the White House, a cavalcade of former Republican Senators and Trump White House staffers attempted to make the former president’s case. Their final argument was that for the good of the country, Trump should be allowed to remain president, despite his lawful conviction by the Senate.

Things began to move rapidly at this point.

Vice President Pence was sworn in but Chief Justice Roberts in a dark, somber event in the Old Executive Building. Meanwhile, it was learned Trump had quietly replaced his Secret Service detail with a private security force that made it clear it was prepared to defend Trump until the bloody end.

At this point, two things happened. A final bipartisan delegation of Congressional leaders came to the White House grounds under the flag of truce. During the course of an hour-long meeting, Trump screamed at them that they had never supported him and the world would be better off if it just ended instead of allowed the forces of the Deep State to ruin America. He made it absolutely clear that he would never leave the Oval Office willingly.

With that, they left.

Next, a surreal, bizarre event, the FBI slowly began to surround the White House. There was much debate online and on TV about how long the nation should wait for Trump to leave the White House. CNN went so far as to do a deep dive into the exact amount of food the White House grounds might have available at any one moment.

Finally, shots rang out from the White House as the battle was joined. It took several hours but in the end, the FBI was finally able to secure the facility. Nearly a dozen personnel on both sides died during the course of the Battle of The White House.

In what would become ionic footage, Trump was quietly escorted from the White House grounds. He spent the remainder of his days ranting on Twitter and Gab that he was the rightful president.

The End.



Confronting My Own MAGA Stockholm Syndrome


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We live in surreal times. We have an autocracy without the autocrat. And, so, while it’s very possible Trump may go transactional on Twitter in an desperate, last-ditch effort at self-preservation, it definitely seems as though there is, in fact, going to be a Biden Adminstration.

Because Trump is doing everything in his power to make it seem as though he’s not going anywhere, when he finally does leave office it’s going to be a very surreal moment in our nation’s political history.

I hate the Trump Administration with a white hot rage — so much so it’s inspired me to write a novel — and I haven’t even begun to believe that the autocrat may have, in fact, lost. This happened because Trump isn’t an autocrat, but rather an craven ding-dong, but whatever.

Anyway, the point is, we’re all in for some rather surreal days of political change when we all have to admit to ourselves that our long national Trump nightmare is, in fact over.

Now, let me put this into context — we are going to be very, very lucky if we just drift into the Biden Era. I am still not prepared to believe Trump isn’t going to somehow remove a pound of flesh from us as a nation on his way out. If he does that, then we wouldn’t just “drift” into the Biden Era, we would be pushed.

The first few days of the Biden Administration would be us all processing whatever horrific thing Trump did on his way out. I hate to say this, but it’s beginning to become a real possibility that Trump may hunker down in the White House and, gulp, chose Hitler’s Gotterdammerung exit rather than risk going to jail.

Or, put another way, we’re going to know soon enough if Trump is no longer thinking about things in political terms, but rather exclusively in personal terms. If Trump finally snaps and all his decisions are made solely on personal considerations, then the end of the Trump Era may be so shocking that it will dwarf even 9/11.

What exactly might happen, I don’t want to think about. But I have a few ideas of how dark and tragic things might get — especially if Trump won’t leave the White House we have to go in and get him out.

Anyway. Be prepared.

Prediction: Trump May Incite A Secession Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The curious thing about Trump is if he had any native political acumen, he would have done a major autocratic move at some point between October and just after the election. That would have likely goaded the Blue States into leaving the Union. He could, in turn, have put down such a revolt and reorganized them in his own MAGA image.

But he didn’t.

And now that he’s waited this long, his autocratic options have grown far more limited. And, yet, there’s a serious risk that once his absolute unwillingness meets his absolute realization that he lost, that his mind may lock up and he’ll go bonkers.

Because, I really don’t see any way he “crosses the Rubicon” and takes “total control” via martial law. There’s just no way he can do it. I guess he could start a war with the DPRK or Iran and try to pull a fast one on us. But it seems more likely that if he is really surrounded by crackpots and kooks that they’re going to drift towards the obvious: him going transactional on Twitter. Specifically, he may begin to demand that Red States leave the Union.

He would say that he’s the rightful president and those states who agree with him need to leave the Union. He might flee Washington for good and hold up somewhere while he goads Red States to leave the Union via conventions. He can probably get a huge swath of Red States in the central part of the country to do so because they’re white. But they have small populations and small economies, so while there would be significant political violence that would be called a “second American civil war” it wouldn’t be until the states of the old CSA got into the act that things would get lit.

But, as I keep saying, the black community simply isn’t going to allow old CSA states to leave the Union and all Southern whites will get for their trouble is a race war.

Such sedition would happen in the context of Trump finally losing his mind. I’ve long debated if Trump would “implode” or “explode” mentally in the end. It definitely looks as though he’s heading towards the latter.

As such, Republicans will face their final test — do they support Trump’s sedition or do they at last cut him loose? It seems this will be a real existential test for Republicans because at some point their absolute fidelity to Trump and his MAGA base will bump up against the cold hard fact that his behavior is, at last, absolutely indefensible and he’s a liability to their own political futures.

So, the split between people who lulz this and those who can’t take the final crazy train to sedition might — at least for one political cycle — destroy the Republican Party.

But there’s a huge caveat to all of this — since Trump isn’t an autocrat but a ding-dong, he could just, well, do nothing. He might rant a lot on Twitter, but he never finally goes transactional. He never finally takes the last step that would destroy the Republican Party.

Trump is so unpredictable — and so easy to overestimate — that we’ve still got some time before which direction he is going to go becomes obvious. But the closer we get to January 6th, the closer we come to knowing one way or another.

Once we get past the January 6th meeting of Congress, we’re going to know not only Trump’s fate, but our own.

#ETTD: Republicans May At Last Say, ‘He’s Gotta Go’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is he has such an absolute control over the Republican base that he could have become an autocrat in the traditional sense, but didn’t because he’s just a ding-dong. And I’m hearing a lot of people on Twitter suggest that Trump is the precursor to the rise of an autocrat who would finish the job Trump began.

We’re living in a Stephen King novel.

I generally agree with that sentiment, but for one thing — what if Trump between now and January 20th grows so unmoored from reality that he, at last becomes a liability to the Republican establishment in such a way that they at last turn their back on him, that they at last say, “He’s gotta go.”

What would that even look like?

Well, it seems to me that this would not be some sort of liberal fever dream where Rachel Maddow somehow becomes president. No, it would be such an epic crisis that it would scar Americans for a generation. Whatever the crisis was would be, in itself, a “political 9/11.” It would be so bad that the entire ground to a halt and we were given minute-by-minute discussion of events on CNN or MSNBC. And, remember, the 25th Amendment is a dead letter. It just doesn’t exist in any practical fashion, so we would have to impeach and convict Trump to get rid of him if things got all that bad.

For Republicans to finally, finally, finally, finally, finally, FINALLY, cut ties with Trump, it would have to be existential. Like, maybe he starts a war with the DPRK and we all think we’re going to die from a limited nuclear exchange with them. Something that big.

Or, put another way, Trump would have to become so wrapped up in staying in office that he totally and completely gave up any prospect of running for office again in 2024. The reason is — Mitch McConnell is a creature of power politics. For him to become interested in some sort of snap Impeachment that led to conviction, he would have to think the very existence of the United States was seriously at risk.

I have my doubts that even Trump doing crazy things like whipping his cock out or tweeting the n-word to Obama would be enough for #MoscowMtich. Trump has just over a month left in office, so #MoscowMitch would simply shrug and wait things out.

So, whatever Trump did would have to be REALLY BAD. So bad that it would be mentioned in the same breath as Watergate AND 9/11. And, honestly, the only thing I can think of is a war of some sort. And while Iran is the most obvious target of such a war (Mike Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ and would force Jesus to come back if such a war started) it definitely seems some sort of an attack on the DPRK would fit the bill much better for Trump.

The reason is — if Trump was completely insane, he might see a major regional war in Northeast Asia as such a massive distraction that he could pull a Constitutional fast one on us. Though, to be fair, the US Military — unlike the American public — can walk and chew gum and the same time so they would get rid of him. But Trump is growing so crazy that it’s at least possible he might want to risk such a gambit.

And, honestly, the only thing that may be stopping him now is he’s not a political genius and he likes Kim Jung-Un on a personal level too much. It just would never occur to him to do such a thing. He’s really not very smart.

It’s therefore possible that Trump will do everything in his power to destroy as much of the government as possible on his way out — maybe even thrash about in some sort of coup that goes nowhere — and in the end he just won’t leave the White House. And that will be the extent of these last few surreal days.

The ‘Patriot Party’ As Existential Threat To The Republic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For the moment, The Patriot Party is more an expression of MAGA frustration that the person they thought would murder American democracy — Donald Trump — was less Hitler and more Chauncy Gardner than anything else.

What MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cucksucker shitheads want is, essentially, an American Nazi Party. They want a party that is so absolute in its fidelity to the Dear Leader that any member with any power will break the law rather than let anyone but a member of The Patriot Party take power.

That’s why Trump’s ding-dong “soft coup” to date hasn’t been successful. Republicans still have just enough respect for the rule of law that even if Trump attempts to get them murdered, they stand up to him. The Patriot Party would work hand-in-glove with Trump or whatever American Nazi who happens to pop up in the next few years.

So, in the guise of The Patriot Party, MAGA feels they would get what they haven’t gotten from the Republican Party to date: such absolute partisan allegiance to the autocrat that they destroy American democracy.

But for the moment, this is just a vague inclination among MAGA. It would take Trump joining The Patriot Party for it to really take. Or something. The Republican Party make simply turn into the Patriot Party before it’s over with. Or maybe American democracy will again limp along as the Republican Party implodes for an election cycle.

While we’re in a very dangerous place politically right now in America, unless some sort of “political 9/11” happens, the frustrations of MAGA will remain just that for a few more years.

The Strange Case Of Everyone Wanting A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This blog gets very few hits, but I’m getting a growing amount of traffic from people obviously interested in my dystopian hellscape scenarios about some sort of Second American Civil War.

What gives?

Well, this seems to be a pretty complex question. Some of this comes from a number of macro political trends coming to a head at the same time. The rot in the American political system — exemplified by rise of Donald Trump — is so bad that growing number of MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads on an abstract level want the opportunity to murder “libtards” in cold blood.

The question, of course, is why.

I think some of it comes from the absence of something — Trump actually being an autocrat. When MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads voted for Trump in the first place, they thought they were getting the guy from The Apprentice. They thought he would be an autocrat who would destroy American democracy once and for all and put globalist cucks in their place.

Alas, as has been proven repeatedly over the last five-odd years, Trump is NOT an autocrat in the traditional sense. Trump has autocratic impulses and he has a lot of power by just, well, being himself, but he’s not a leader and he’s really just a lazy, incompetent ding-dong. If you want my proof — all I have to do is point out that had Trump struck in an autocratic fashion right before or right after the election, he probably would be cruising into a stolen second term. What’s more, there probably would be a civil war or secessionist crisis because at that point, Blue States would be so upset that they would leave the Union. This would give Trump the legal cover to take over Blue States, reconstruct them in his own image and give the MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads the autocracy they so crave.

But, guess what! Trump’s an idiot. A lazy idiot.

So, while Trump is an avatar for the rot of the American political system, he doesn’t have something that Hitler had — an actual willingness to force the matter as necessary when politics got in the way. It’s because of that absence of focus on Trump’s part that I have come up with all these pretty simple ways Trump could stay in office as long as he wanted….only to have him not do any of them because, well, he’s a ding-dong and not an autocrat.

And I think that’s the source of a lot of people who come to the site’s curiosity — they know a martial law, secession and civil war SHOULD be happening right now….but it’s not. And they can’t figure out what happened. They’re so busy sucking Trump’s cock and fucking their guns that they don’t realize that Trump simply isn’t the autocrat they wanted.

This is not to say that such an autocrat won’t arise. There are about a half dozen people waiting in the wings to complete the process Trump has started. The ironic thing is, Trump is such an idiot and wants all the power but none of the responsibility that for the time being, he’s freezing out Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo or whomever from becoming president in 2024 and doing all the things that MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads believe should be happening NOW.

It’s still possible that Trump is going to lose his fucking mind and somehow start a civil war. But the thing that MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads don’t realize is they don’t actually live in Russia. Trump can’t just tweet that we’re under martial law and good old boys can now start murdering liberals Purge style without any consquences.

There would have to be some reason, some catalyst for martial law to be declared and Trump has waited so long that if he did try to take “total control” at this point, first the U.S. Military would ignore him and second soon enough Joe Biden would be legally POTUS and, well, fuck you, you fucking cocksucker shitheads.

So, it’s still possible a civil war could break out any moment (I guess.) But it’s just not going to happen the way MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads think it would.

More likely, this is the beginning of a process that will lead to a civil war at some point between now and, say, 2025. But I can’t predict the future. Who knows.

Our Craven Ding-Dong POTUS Faces His Final Political Test



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of different things are happening at the same time. One issue is that several different macro trends in American politics have come to a head. The rage that 38% of the electorate feels about the changing nature of American society combined with how white working class men can’t get laid has led to significant rot in the American political system.

Red State rural areas and Blue State urban areas simply have a fundamental difference of opinion about what constitutes America. MAGA and MAGA friendly people think that by definition to be conservative is to risk being “canceled” — have their life ruined — for simply being conservative. And that, is the source of a lot of the rage and willful ignorance on the part of such people.

There are a number of pretty huge problems standing in the way of MAGA getting want they apparently want right now — 4 more years of Trumplandia. The biggest obstacle to this goal, ironically enough, is Trump himself. If he struck in some autocratic fashion before the election was called — or even before the election — then he probably would have gotten away with it. There are many, many different autocratic things he could have done that would have allowed him to stay in office to varying degrees of success.

But he didn’t do any of them and now that the Electoral College has voted, it’s now much, much harder for Rudy to use his usual disinformation techniques to run slipshod over democracy since we’re now, again, in a political crisis. The reason we’re in a political crisis — even if we don’t see it for that — is only through extra-political measures can Trump stay in power.

Or, put another way, the soft coup techniques he used in the courts recently would have to be replaced by hard coup techniques of an actual autocrat. But there are a lot — a lot — of problems for Trump going forward to pull such a thing off.

Many of his followers are begging Trump to go full-autocrat and declare martial law, or what have you. But there’s an important element of this they miss — Trump can’t just do this out of the blue. If he did — no one would follow his order.

What he COULD do, is goad his followers into some sort of Reichstag Fire event which he could then, in turn, use to invoke the Insurrection Act and attempt to maybe stay in power no matter what. But, again, even then, now that the Electoral College has voted…that’s a pretty dubious strategy. Even if something happened out of the blue — like a war with Iran or the DPRK or a coordinated series of political killings or Oklahoma City type bombings — Trump’s time in office is growing to an end.

Really, it seems to me Trump has one ace up his sleeve — in a sense: he could just snap and go completely fucking bonkers and thrash around, trying to destroy the country as much as possible on his way out. There are any number of pretty insane things he could do. He could start tweeting about how Red states need to leave the Union before January 20th. He could attempt to arrest any number of people he doesn’t like as a negotiating tactic so HE doesn’t go to prison after he leaves office.

But, remember, pretty much at any moment now, some pretty lit extra-political events might happen because Trump is hoping he can win in Congress Jan. 6th because that’s a POLITICAL event.

And, yet, I’ve overestimated Trump’s actual political ability so many times over the years, that what’s more likely to happen is we’re just going to drift into the Biden Era. Things will be in political neutral for about two years until the House flips and Biden is impeached for Hunter Biden’s laptop (or whatever) and there will be a lot — a lot — of surreal political discourse as suddenly our political norms snap back into place while, at the same time, Trump keeps doing what he’s always been doing an we just shrug.

Like we always do.

But there is a good chance that the weeks leading up to Jan. 20th are going to be unpredictable, unstable and extremely bumpy. How, exactly, all the plays out is anyone’s guess.

My Personal Second American Civil War Plans — Head To NYC As A Political Refugee


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have repeatedly said in the past that if the End ever comes I’ll either be the first person to die or the guy who brings back civilization. So, if a Second American Civil War happens, I’m my vision is I pack up my few belongings and head north to NYC.

But first, some context.

This is really a delusional idea — for the moment — because of what it would require. When I lived in South Korea, I did really well there because every day was an adventure and everything is extremely chaotic. But for things to get so bad in the United States that I would have an infrastructure to get me to some sort of Revolutionary NYC, then, well, things would have to gotten very bad indeed.

I guess me talking about such — at the moment — delusional things is me simply giving myself some solace that I have A Plan, if need be. But I do know that I manage to get to NYC under the conditions of this dystopian hellscape, I would probably do quite well for myself. I’m really good at abstract thought and I’m a pretty good organizer.

If nothing else, it would be pretty cool (in a sense) to live in the Manhattan Commune, or whatever the Revolutionary Government there would be called. The idea such a thing would even ever exist is, in itself, rather dubious. But it just makes sense that of all the potential places for a Commune, NYC , LA and Boston would be it.

Or to put things another way — I’m not going to sit on my hands if America goes tits up. I’m going to use whatever talents I might have to try to make people’s lives better again.

And, really, there’s a good chance SCOTUS is going to punt this particular problem down the road and it might be as late as 2024 — or never — that such a End of The World situation even happens.

But it definitely feels as though America is one Oklahoma City-style explosion in NYC or LA, or an assassination away from the whole country collapsing and people dying for their politics. I hope I’m wrong. I really do.