Tag: Tyrant Trump

How American Democracy (Probably) Finally Dies

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading a book about the death of Germany democracy in the days leading up to the Nazi take over in 1933 and I keep thinking about how much the MAGA movement is similar in its dynamic to the Nazis.

So, barring something really unexpected, I suspect MAGA will be the death of American democracy sooner or later.

But how?

Well, as far as I can determine, there are two main ways it happens.

One would be a major domestic terrorist attack. This would give Trump the cover he needs to seize control in a more direct manner than he has to date. If something as big as 9/11 happened under Trump’s watch I’m *sure* he would suspend elections and probably declare martial law.

The other way is not as exciting, but just as potent — it’s ultimately not Trump but his successor who snuffs out American democracy. I have a growing sense that it might be Ivanka Trump who is Trump’s hand-chosen successor and that she might be the “velvet fist” that ends American democracy.

She would be the happy face to while her actual administration might be done under the watchful eye of a fucking fascist like Stephen Miller. Something like that. Something whereby she ostensibly is a “friendly” MAGA while in fact the actual government is fascist in an unpresendent way.

Anyway, I just don’t see American democracy rebounding. At least not in my life time. It’s on a death watch — its in hospice, if you will — and soon enough we’ll be a true “managed democracy” like they have in Russia.

America Is In Its ‘Burn It All Down’ Era

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I think we have to come to grips with the fact that Trump’s second term is something of a revolution. There’s no going back. The whole tenor of the country is changing — not to mention the creation of a MAGA “Deep State” — in such a way that simply can not, will not be fixed no matter what.

America is in an extended period of decline.

The only question is, what happens next? Where do we end up after Trump FINALLY ends his reign of dumb terror.

I think, ultimately, the moment we get a young MAGA leader that that will be that. We will never have another free and fair election — or we will have about 20 years of MAGA leaders.

Now, there is one cavate.

The issue of the Singularity. I could see the Singularity so totally fucking with our political system that the traditional Left-Right divide is totally switched around. How, exactly, I don’t know.

But it’s very possible.

But it’s also possible that we’re just fucked. That at least for my lifetime we’ll have a series of MAGA leaders that make us sicker, dumber and poorer (except for plutocrats.)

This Was All Inevitable, I Guess

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of macro events have happened in the last few decades that made the political clusterfuck we are experiencing in the United States now inevitable. NAFTA is a big one. But the real issue, the issue that is the source of all it, is the decline in white babies being born.

That’s the ur issue that has led to MAGA. I can remember reading a bit of The Birth Dearth in the 1980s (90s?) that talked about the impact of such things. The whole concern about white babies being born is fucking racist, but it’s because of whites feeling insecure about their social status that we get fucking Trump and his ilk.

That particular issue isn’t going anywhere.

In fact, if anything, it’s going to get worse as Baby Boomers start to drop dead and there just aren’t enough of those sweet, sweet little white babies to make up the difference. I, for one, welcome our “brown” future — as long as I get to live in a traditional liberal democracy — but, lulz, the fucking fascists of MAGA are so freaking the fuck out that we’re kind of doomed.

The thing about Trump is he is probably the most important political figure of the last 50 or more years because he has a unique talent for accelerating trends that were inevitable. What might have, under the best of possibilities, taken a gradual 20 years if, say, Hillary had won in 2016 or Biden won in 2016….is now happening in a few years.

We’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. There’s no going back. America is in decline and I don’t have any ready answer for you as to what happens next. The only unknown at the moment is the Singularity.

The Singularity — which, for me, means the rise of ASI — could throw everything for a loop. We might find ourselves thinking not about the decline and fall of the American Empire but rather how we’re going to deal with “aliens” of our own creation that make demands of us in ways none of us can in any way expect.

Trump Is Getting Worse

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump’s recent posting of a picture of himself as…Jesus?…seems to have struck a nerve in the zeitgeist that his posting an AI generated photo of himself as the Pope did not.

“Doctor” Trump

I don’t know what to tell you. Trump seems to be testing the waters of how far he can go before anyone notices. I think there continues to be a whole lot of slack in the system.

Trump has a knack for posting or doing or saying things that are bonkers and alarming, but he can spin ex post facto away out of existence. It just makes you wonder what he could possibly do that would be so bad that that usual dynamic would not happen.

I honestly, at the moment, can’t think of anything. It seems as though Trump will always be on the edge of crashing out and ultimately the issue will be if we can prevent him from running for a third term.

Contemplating Trump Using Nukes On Iran

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump’s power is you just never know what he’s going to do next, so you game out all these horrific scenarios only for most of the time nothing to happen. So, as Trump’s big deadline tonight at 8 p.m. approaches, we know one of two things will happen.

Either Trump TACOs in a big, beautiful way, or he actually does commit the war crimes of attacking bridges and powerplants.

But, as of right now, the afternoon leading up to that particular possibility, we just don’t know what is going to happen.

One issue that has started to bubble up into the forefront of my mind is the possibility that Trump might do something really nuts like order the use of, say, “baby” nukes on Iran in some way.

Makes you wonder what the reaction in the homeland would be to THAT. I don’t think Trump would do such a thing — would he? — but I am a little unnerved about the whole idea. I think if Trump used tactical nukes on Iran, it would be the closest possible time to Trump actually getting impeached by the Republicans.

But…that’s about it. He might, just MIGHT get impeached, but he still would never be convicted in the Senate.

So, to that extent, Trump is a king, an emperor, not a president and we’re no longer a republic. Oh well. Being a republic for about 250 years is about typical for such things.

The End Of Pax Americana

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the old post-WW2 liberal order is…dying. It definitely seems as though we in a new era where anything is possible. I keep expecting that Trump will drop a MOAB or tactical nuke on Iran sometime soon.

I watch the little cartoon history videos called “History Matters” and it definitely seems like this would be the part of the video that was a precursor to Something Big. I don’t know what that Something Big is going to be, but it’s probably going to happen this year.

My fear, of course, is that there’s a major terrorist attack in the USA, or Trump uses some combination of the SAVE Act and a forced “nationalization” of elections to attempt to turn the USA into a “managed democracy.” And THAT, in turn causes a civil war or revolution.

But hopefully that’s not what’s going to happen.

And, yet, I do think this year is going to be far more turbulent that any of us could possibly expect otherwise.

The SAVE Act Is Bad News

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a reason why Trump is so hysterical about passing the SAVE Act: he knows that’s how he can finally consolidate power. The SAVE Act is some serious Jim Crow bullshit.

It would be the worst piece of voter suppression, maybe in forever.

And, yet, here we are. It definitely seems like there is momentum for it to pass. And, as such, the USA is posed to become a zombie “managed” democracy like they have in Hungary, Turkey and Russia.

But we voted in Trump a second time, I guess that is what we should expect. It will be interesting to see if Trump uses the passage of the SAVE Act as a sign he can run for a third term without people really getting as nearly upset as they should.

Only time will tell on that one, I guess.

Fuck Trump, fuck ICE and fuck the SAVE Act.

If Trump Cancels National Elections, There Will Be A Revolution Or Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t care what Trump thinks, barring something truly extraordinary like a few nukes blowing up across the USA, Trump simply can not cancel elections. Remember, the USA had elections during the middle of a civil war.

So, if Trump used what may be WW3 as a pretext to “cancel” elections, there will b hell to pay. I would even go so far as to say if Trump fucked with elections so they were clearly no longer free and fair, then, that, too might be enough to cause some sort of mass revolt on the part of the American people.

AND, something similar would happen if Trump ran for an illegal third term.

Anyway, I’ve frequently been accused of “hysterical doom shit” so maybe all of this is a lulz.

I am, however, unnerved by the prospect of some sort major terrorist attack in the USA sooner rather than later because of the dumb war Trump has started with Iran for seemingly no damn reason.

Potentially Watching the Opening Act of World War 3

I want to be clear: I don’t think we’re in World War 3 yet. But I do think we’ve entered one of the most genuinely destabilized moments in modern geopolitical history — and the distance between “very dangerous” and “catastrophic” is shrinking.

The two flashpoints I keep coming back to are Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.

China’s posture toward Taiwan has grown increasingly assertive, and the window for a forced reunification attempt — whether through blockade, gray-zone pressure, or outright invasion — is a real strategic consideration among analysts, not just speculation. Xi Jinping has tied his legacy to the Taiwan question in ways that make backing down politically costly. If that move comes, it almost certainly draws in the United States, Japan, and potentially Australia, triggering a conflict that would dwarf anything we’ve seen since 1945.

Then there’s North Korea, which has gone conspicuously quiet. That’s not necessarily reassuring. The DPRK has spent the last several years dramatically advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities, and silence from Pyongyang sometimes precedes provocation rather than signaling restraint. A miscalculation on the Korean Peninsula — or a deliberate escalation — could ignite a second front almost simultaneously.

What would it mean if several of these regional conflicts metastasized at once? At some point, the international community would have to reckon with the label: World War 3.

And here’s the domestic question that keeps nagging at me. If that label became unavoidable — if the U.S. were actively drawn into multiple simultaneous conflicts — would it create the political conditions for something unthinkable at home? Emergency powers have been expanded and abused before, even in democracies. The scenario where a president uses wartime crisis as justification to delay or suspend elections is not fantasy; it’s a documented playbook from history, and one that American institutions have never actually been stress-tested against at this scale.

I’m hopeful we don’t get there. I genuinely am. But hope isn’t a strategy, and the architecture of the current moment deserves to be taken seriously.

Only time will tell — and lately, time hasn’t been especially reassuring.

Our A.I.-Caused Recession Is Here

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though This Is It.

It seems as though we’ve finally reached the long-feared moment, tipping point, when A.I. productivity gains begin to influence the job market. And for it happen in the context of a war and the inflation caused by an uptick in oil prices is kind of a lose-lose situation.

I don’t know what to tell you.

It’s been a good run, I guess.

Now, on the political front, we have to wonder if the economy tanking would make Trump more or less a tyrant. That one is really up in the air. I just don’t know.

I really don’t.

He could go either way. He could see a souring economy as an excuse to get worse. Or, if his poll numbers get really bad he might just calm the shit down a tiny bit.

It really could go either way.

Only time will tell, I suppose.