The Mysterious Endgame Of Trumplandia

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about what’s going on with the USA that I don’t understand is what the endgame is. I know that Trump is probably the most meaningful American president sense at least FDR, and, yet who are we going to be once we come out the other side of this revolution?

And it is a revolution. Trump has greatly accelerated America’s drift towards autocracy and white nationalism in ways that none of us could have possibly predicted. And, yet, here we are.

I suppose what is going to happen is whomever is Trump’s Republican successor will consolidate power like some sort of Augustus Caesar and that will be that. We will be a managed democracy with Russian-like oligarchs that continue to make the rich richer and the poor poorer (and sicker.)

Lulz?

It’s been a real struggle to accept that I no longer live in a traditional liberal democracy. And, yet, here we are. That’s exactly what’s going on. I wish I could sell my novel, make a lot of money and get the hell out of this country, never to be seen again.

But, alas, I fear that’s just not to happen. I’m stuck here. And I think it’s inevitable that I’m going to run afoul of Trump’s goons one way or another. It’s just a matter of time before I get “vanished.”

Wish me luck.

America As Argentina

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I fear America has entered an extended era of decline and there’s no going back, just like what happened with Argentina. I think what’s going to happen is because of the “K shaped” economy that the decline will be hidden for a long time.

The average wealthy person will be “what decline?” while the average poorer person will definitely sense it all around them.

As such, the smug media that is general directed at wealthy people and their problems won’t notice the decline as well.

I also think we need to keep an eye on the budget deficit. If we go bankrupt then al bets are off, the entire world may implode into chaos. And if you throw the potential rise of ASI into things, the next 10 years could be some of the most dramatic in human history.

But only time will tell, as the old song goes. It could be that we will, as always — to date — muddle through.

How American Democracy (Probably) Finally Dies

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading a book about the death of Germany democracy in the days leading up to the Nazi take over in 1933 and I keep thinking about how much the MAGA movement is similar in its dynamic to the Nazis.

So, barring something really unexpected, I suspect MAGA will be the death of American democracy sooner or later.

But how?

Well, as far as I can determine, there are two main ways it happens.

One would be a major domestic terrorist attack. This would give Trump the cover he needs to seize control in a more direct manner than he has to date. If something as big as 9/11 happened under Trump’s watch I’m *sure* he would suspend elections and probably declare martial law.

The other way is not as exciting, but just as potent — it’s ultimately not Trump but his successor who snuffs out American democracy. I have a growing sense that it might be Ivanka Trump who is Trump’s hand-chosen successor and that she might be the “velvet fist” that ends American democracy.

She would be the happy face to while her actual administration might be done under the watchful eye of a fucking fascist like Stephen Miller. Something like that. Something whereby she ostensibly is a “friendly” MAGA while in fact the actual government is fascist in an unpresendent way.

Anyway, I just don’t see American democracy rebounding. At least not in my life time. It’s on a death watch — its in hospice, if you will — and soon enough we’ll be a true “managed democracy” like they have in Russia.

America Is In Its ‘Burn It All Down’ Era

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I think we have to come to grips with the fact that Trump’s second term is something of a revolution. There’s no going back. The whole tenor of the country is changing — not to mention the creation of a MAGA “Deep State” — in such a way that simply can not, will not be fixed no matter what.

America is in an extended period of decline.

The only question is, what happens next? Where do we end up after Trump FINALLY ends his reign of dumb terror.

I think, ultimately, the moment we get a young MAGA leader that that will be that. We will never have another free and fair election — or we will have about 20 years of MAGA leaders.

Now, there is one cavate.

The issue of the Singularity. I could see the Singularity so totally fucking with our political system that the traditional Left-Right divide is totally switched around. How, exactly, I don’t know.

But it’s very possible.

But it’s also possible that we’re just fucked. That at least for my lifetime we’ll have a series of MAGA leaders that make us sicker, dumber and poorer (except for plutocrats.)

This Was All Inevitable, I Guess

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of macro events have happened in the last few decades that made the political clusterfuck we are experiencing in the United States now inevitable. NAFTA is a big one. But the real issue, the issue that is the source of all it, is the decline in white babies being born.

That’s the ur issue that has led to MAGA. I can remember reading a bit of The Birth Dearth in the 1980s (90s?) that talked about the impact of such things. The whole concern about white babies being born is fucking racist, but it’s because of whites feeling insecure about their social status that we get fucking Trump and his ilk.

That particular issue isn’t going anywhere.

In fact, if anything, it’s going to get worse as Baby Boomers start to drop dead and there just aren’t enough of those sweet, sweet little white babies to make up the difference. I, for one, welcome our “brown” future — as long as I get to live in a traditional liberal democracy — but, lulz, the fucking fascists of MAGA are so freaking the fuck out that we’re kind of doomed.

The thing about Trump is he is probably the most important political figure of the last 50 or more years because he has a unique talent for accelerating trends that were inevitable. What might have, under the best of possibilities, taken a gradual 20 years if, say, Hillary had won in 2016 or Biden won in 2016….is now happening in a few years.

We’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. There’s no going back. America is in decline and I don’t have any ready answer for you as to what happens next. The only unknown at the moment is the Singularity.

The Singularity — which, for me, means the rise of ASI — could throw everything for a loop. We might find ourselves thinking not about the decline and fall of the American Empire but rather how we’re going to deal with “aliens” of our own creation that make demands of us in ways none of us can in any way expect.

Trump Is Getting Worse

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump’s recent posting of a picture of himself as…Jesus?…seems to have struck a nerve in the zeitgeist that his posting an AI generated photo of himself as the Pope did not.

“Doctor” Trump

I don’t know what to tell you. Trump seems to be testing the waters of how far he can go before anyone notices. I think there continues to be a whole lot of slack in the system.

Trump has a knack for posting or doing or saying things that are bonkers and alarming, but he can spin ex post facto away out of existence. It just makes you wonder what he could possibly do that would be so bad that that usual dynamic would not happen.

I honestly, at the moment, can’t think of anything. It seems as though Trump will always be on the edge of crashing out and ultimately the issue will be if we can prevent him from running for a third term.

It Seems Like The Press Is Protecting Trump When It Comes To Him Posting A Video Of A Woman Being Unalived With A Hammer

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump has reached a stage of craziness that the press simply ignores the worst of his abuses. Or protects him? I just don’t get why a bigger deal isn’t being made of the president of the United States posting a video of a woman being hammered to death.

You’d think someone, somewhere would notice and make a big deal of such a thing. To make a scandal of it.

But no. Not a peep.

Some of this is I don’t know what’s being shown on TV because I only watch it via YouTube clips. But I will note that Twitter has made a point of “shadowbanning” the whole thing, only making the most bowdlerized reference to what Trump did in a way that really does protect him.

Trump is clearly mentally unwell and it makes you wonder how bad things have to get before we reach SOME sort of breaking point. Because, as of now, it definitely seems as though there is no breaking point and Trump is some sort of weird god-emperor.

So, We’re Just Going To Lulz Trump Posting A Video Of A Woman Being Unalived

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you about this one folks. Apparently, Trump posted to “Truth” Social a video of a woman being murdered with a hammer. He did it, of course, because he’s a racist lunatic.

You would think that doing such a thing might cause someone, somewhere to take notice…but, no. Nada. Not a peep. there are some discussions here and there, but not the huge outcry you would expect.

And so the world turns and Trump gets crazier and crazier and absolutely nothing of note happens.

Contemplating Trump Using Nukes On Iran

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump’s power is you just never know what he’s going to do next, so you game out all these horrific scenarios only for most of the time nothing to happen. So, as Trump’s big deadline tonight at 8 p.m. approaches, we know one of two things will happen.

Either Trump TACOs in a big, beautiful way, or he actually does commit the war crimes of attacking bridges and powerplants.

But, as of right now, the afternoon leading up to that particular possibility, we just don’t know what is going to happen.

One issue that has started to bubble up into the forefront of my mind is the possibility that Trump might do something really nuts like order the use of, say, “baby” nukes on Iran in some way.

Makes you wonder what the reaction in the homeland would be to THAT. I don’t think Trump would do such a thing — would he? — but I am a little unnerved about the whole idea. I think if Trump used tactical nukes on Iran, it would be the closest possible time to Trump actually getting impeached by the Republicans.

But…that’s about it. He might, just MIGHT get impeached, but he still would never be convicted in the Senate.

So, to that extent, Trump is a king, an emperor, not a president and we’re no longer a republic. Oh well. Being a republic for about 250 years is about typical for such things.

The End Of Pax Americana

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the old post-WW2 liberal order is…dying. It definitely seems as though we in a new era where anything is possible. I keep expecting that Trump will drop a MOAB or tactical nuke on Iran sometime soon.

I watch the little cartoon history videos called “History Matters” and it definitely seems like this would be the part of the video that was a precursor to Something Big. I don’t know what that Something Big is going to be, but it’s probably going to happen this year.

My fear, of course, is that there’s a major terrorist attack in the USA, or Trump uses some combination of the SAVE Act and a forced “nationalization” of elections to attempt to turn the USA into a “managed democracy.” And THAT, in turn causes a civil war or revolution.

But hopefully that’s not what’s going to happen.

And, yet, I do think this year is going to be far more turbulent that any of us could possibly expect otherwise.