I’m working my way towards actually reading J.K. Rowling’s very, very indulgent novel about something near and dear to her heart — cancel culture. I’m reading it one, out of spite to the “woke cancel culture mob” (wink) who is aghast that she would write on such things and two, I want to see how she pulls it off. Or doesn’t pull it off. But she did manage to get a 1,000 page novel essentially flicking her bean mentally sold and published so, I’m very interested in what it’s like.
Or, put another way — there’s no such thing as bad publicity.
But I am honestly interested in what she has to say and how she says it. I am pretty indifferent to the controversy surrounding her — I’m not a fan and I have no emotional attachment to the Harry Potter franchise. The whole thing is just a curiosity to me.
I have a huge library of books to read and this particular book keep staring at me as a I walked around the house, so I finally took the paper cover off and sat it down in a strategic location to start reading it.
I have so very many books to read. It will be interesting to see if this novel that the “woke cancel culture mob” hates so much is actually any good or not. I haven’t been Red Pilled — I just refuse to be told what media I can, or can not consume.
Things fall apart, as they say. And the United States definitely seems to be following the tradition of the late Roman Republic and sliding into a real, honest to God, Empire.
And, as you may know, during the history of the Roman Empire there was one group that welded a surprising amount of power as to who became — and stayed — Roman’s emperor.
That would be the Praetorian Guard.
Given the news about how bonkers and untrust worthy the Secret Service has become of late combined with my love of speculative scenarios….the conditions are there for a 9/11 type event only at the hands of the Secret Service.
While the vast majority of Secret Service folks are just highly trained people doing their jobs….there definitely seems to be a MAGA bent to the organization on an institutional level.
So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where a bad apple — or a few bad apples — strike when the country is a very vulnerable position. For instance, what if there was some sort of Certification Crisis in late 2024, early 2025? If Republicans controlled the House, a few rouge Secret Service people could change history by putting control of the country safely in the hands of MAGA as we transition into autocracy.
We’ve reached the point in our immutable march towards MAGA autocracy, civil war or military junta at some point between now and spring 2025 that we need to start trying to make concrete our abstract fears.
So, let’s take a Second American Civil War. What are some practical elements to such an event happening that may — or may not — cause it to happen in the first place.
The first thing we need to contemplate is what would cause a 2AMC in the first place. There has been a lot — A LOT — of talk by Very Important Experts about how if there is a 2ACW that it will be rolling political violence on the part of Reds who feel stymied in their efforts to establish a white Christian ethnostate. The thinking goes that at some point in the immediate future all the good old boys who drink Miller Lite at the cabin shooting off their AR-15s will finally get so fed up with the “woke cancel culture mob” that they will spontaneously begin to shoot at liberals.
Or something. Something like that.
I’m just a drunk crank in the middle of nowhere, but I call bullshit on this prediction because Reds are politically ascendant and, as such, have no reason to do such a thing. They’re putting all the pieces in place for them to be able to steal the 2024 election in a pretty brazen manner. Starting with local election boards refusing to certify any Democrat win, the fix will be in.
Rather than having a Western democracy in the guise of our constitutional republic, it will become accepted that the administration of elections is now so corrupt that it is effectively impossible for a Democrat to win high office peacefully in the United States. Twitter liberals will flee the country en mass and that, sadly, will be that.
That’s what I believe is going to happen, by the way.
But. There is a greater than zero sum chance that instead of us slipping peacefully into MAGA fascist autocracy that it will be Blues who refuse to bend a knee and begin the process of not blowing shit up randomly, but actually having states leave the Union on a political basis.
Now, this is where things remain murky and very, very speculative. At the moment, there is no reason to believe Blues would take the step of calling Secessionist Conventions so they could start a Blue America Union. So, if it did happen, it would be one of the biggest and most unexpected political developments in the United States since, well, the first time it was attempted in 1860 – 1861.
I love a good scenario, so if you want my hot take on how the Secessionist Crisis of 2024 – 2025 would go down, it would be something like this. The first indication that things were going to be different would be that local MAGA controlled election boards in swing states would simply not do their job. They would balk at certifying the election of the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate.
The reason why this is so important to what happens next is would introduce a level of uncertainty into the process that could easily be exploited by because so much of the Federal bench is now made up of young MAGA hacks who will do the bidding of MAGA when the time comes. I’m well aware that this did NOT happen in 2020….but we were very lucky. It’s very possible that the process of the corruption of the administration of elections will be much farther along by 2024 and, I don’t know, the election might be closer.
Each election has a personality of its own, if you will.
Once MAGA controlled election boards simply refuse to do their jobs because they don’t like the result, then one of the great ironies of the modern age will happen — suddenly, it will be Blues who will be screaming at the top of their lungs about “Stop The Steal.”
Let me pause here to note that America is tearing itself apart in ways big and small to the point that I just don’t see us making through the passions of another presidential cycle without Something Bad happening. That Somethng Bad could be, as I mentioned, autocracy, civil war or military junta.
But back to the scenario.
Once election boards in swing states balk at doing their jobs, the clock will begin to tick as to what the fuck is going to happen. And if SCOTUS validates the “independent legislature” concept this would be the point where everything would go off the rails. MAGA controlled legislatures in swing states could simply take control of the administration of elections that that point and pretty much just do whatever the fuck they wanted.
This is the point when we would reach a crisis. Just a few days after Election Day 2024, there would begin to be talk amongst a lot of Twitter liberals about either simply voting with their feet and leaving the country for good or even giving up on trying to “Stop The Steal” and having states call up Secessionist Conventions to give at least a thin cover of legality to trying to leave the Union.
Now, remember, all of this would be happening in the context of an old as hell POTUS who could very well just drop dead in the middle of this crisis, making an already very bad situation even worse.
The key element as to any Secessionist Crisis would be, of course, California and maybe New York City. If there was such popular outrage in Blue states that the 2024 election was going to be stolen in broad daylight that election officials in the deep blue states simply could not ignore the demand to leave the Union, then well, we’re going to show.
Meanwhile, NYC would be important because that’s where Trump Tower, Fox News, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post are physically located. If hordes of enraged New Yorkers sacked those places in the middle of any Certification Crisis, then, well, that would be very bad as to the continued unity of the country.
If we turned on CNN in late 2024 and saw Trump Tower in New York City in flames, then, well, that would probably prompt retaliation on the part of Reds across the country. Which would would cause a cascading series of events that would definitely turn a Certification Crisis in to a Secessionist Crisis.
And all of this would be happening in the context of Trump freaking the fuck out and demanding blood. He might go so totally nuts that he, unto himself, could push the country into not just “chaos” but an actual civil war with two governments fighting it out.
There is just so much about this scenario that I can’t game out. I’m not an expert and I can’t predict the future. So, take that into consideration.
At this point, all eyes would be on California. Either they maybe call up a Secessionist Convention just to placate enraged liberals in the state or they maybe call some sort of emergency summit of Blue governors to discuss what happens next.
Then we bump up against two crucial questions. What about “purple” states and what happens with the U.S Military?
There are a number of states, like Virginia, which are purple. Virginia, specifically, is actually two states who fucking hate each other fused together because of history and geography. So this is when something that would make a lot of people sit up and take notice would happen — not only would there potentially be coups and counter coups in state houses across the country, many, many Reds would leave Blue states and Blues would leave Red states.
All this happening virtually overnight would put ever-more pressure on the Federal government. It would begin to dawn on people that the United States, the richest most stable country in the world was about to collapse into not just “rolling political violence” like The Troubles in Northern Ireland but an honest to God civil war like the one that happened in 1861 – 1865.
This brings us to the other issue — what the fuck would the U.S. Military do?
Well, I simply can’t game this out. There is a spectrum of things the U.S. Military might end up doing. Everything from simply collapsing as the Red enlisted go one way while the Blue officer corp goes another way to some sort of martial law / military junta happening. (If you really wanted to be paranoid, the fact that bonkers Gen. Mike Flynn’s brother is in control of the U.S. Pacific Command might suddenly become VERY IMPORTANT at this point.)
I really can’t game out what happens now. Either Blue States leave the Union en mass, establish their own Federal government and military or the U.S. Military steps in and we have a military junta for a little while until passions die down.
Or Blue States could choke and we slide into autocracy, with millions of wealth Blues leaving the country for good.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States
Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
So. I had a wide-ranging political discussion with my Traditionalist relative this weekend and…it did not go well. Or, it did go well in the sense that we didn’t yell at each other. But I do think I got at least a little bit of insight into what the fuck is wrong with American politics right now.
The key thing we have to understand is the fascists are winning the propaganda battle. Republicans are good at latching on to a few concepts and banging them into the minds of Traditionalists in such a simplistic manner that the actual issue is conflated and lost. So even my relative — who is educated and just happens to be on the other end of the political spectrum as me — brought up those MAGA chestnuts like how “the woke cancel culture mob” is not only “grooming” little kids to be gay, but also he thinks that infanticide is something that people like me actually support. (I don’t.)
So, there are a number of key issues which MAGA fascists have managed to successfully lodge a Big Lie into the minds of people who should know better, but generally don’t have the time to come up with a complex political opinion. Traditionalists like my relatives are very, very, very receptive to fascist concepts — even though they don’t even know that they are.
There are two big issues to realize about this.
One, this is not an abstract to me. In the end, if we become a MAGA themed fascist autocracy, then I’m fucked. I’ve had the luxury of living in a Western democracy where I could be a drunk kook and rant at a bar about how much I think President DeSantis can suck my dick. When I’m no longer living in a Western democracy….uh oh. I may very well find myself throw into a Trump branded ICE camp because I shot off at the mouth.
That sounds hysterical at the moment, but that’s the ultimate endgame to living in a MAGA fascist state.
Meanwhile, the other issue is my Traditionalist relative, who works at a big multinational corporation, feels he has a personal reason to hate the “woke cancel culture mob” — apparently because of the “sensitivity training” of his huge company in a relatively conservative state, “there are so many things he can’t say.”
And THAT difference between what a Blues think is socially acceptable and what Reds think is socially acceptable in, say, a workplace environment has grown so different that Traditionalist conservatives feel they have no other choice but support the rise of fascism in the United States. Well, the whole country is in deep, deep trouble.
So, again, between now and spring 2025, the United States is going to face the issue of choosing between autocracy, civil war or military junta. And, at the moment, I think we’re just going to slip into autocracy in the context of millions of Blues simply leaving the country because they can.
I don’t know what else to tell you. We’re fucked. Good luck.
While I talk a lot about there may be a civil war, I believe we’re going to just give up and become an autocracy. Which leads me to wonder how that autocracy may ultimately come to an end.
Political Extremism In this scenario, while we drift through autocratic reign for decades, eventually, the regime grows too extreme — probably in the South — and, ultimately, the whole thing grows so unstable that it collapses in on itself. Sometime, maybe 40 or 50 years from now, a new American Republic is born.
Technological Advances In this scenario, we reach something of a “Soft Singularity” because of Elon Musk and the whole globe’s economy grows unstable that our autocracy collapses and something new takes its place. We still have to put up with autocracy for decades, though.
Global Climate Change In this scenario, the United States is something akin to a Russian political clone for generations until Florida sinks into the sea and that causes enough political chaos that a new Republic is founded.
The point remains — we’re fucked. Get out of the country if you can.
If you assume that the United States is in for a severe political crisis between now and 2025, one that may linger until around 2030, then you find yourself wondering what happens at that point.
Well, I think there’s a good chance that things like Extinction Rebellion will fuse with a general rejection of technology to the point that there may be something akin to a “Neo-Luddite” Movement. It may call itself something else, like Gaianism or something, but it’s coming.
It will happen because of the very practical nature of how all the AI and automation goodies that Elon Musk is working on will come to a head at some point in the 2030s and probably transform the economy in ways none of us can possibly imagine.
If hard AI is running a huge chunk of our society and economy…then are we even still in control? And that might be the agenda of the Gaians. They would want a return to “human control” and, with it, a return to all those jobs that have been thrown into the dustbin of history.
We might even see something along the lines of a real world Butlerian Jihad where any form of hard AI is destroyed. Or something like that. It may be short lived because the benefits of hard AI to the environment will become so apparent…or it may not. We may have some sort of freaky Twelve Monkeys problem in the 2030s.
I’m afraid we have a dead shark, guys. Our political system is dead. When you have otherwise well educated, normal conservatives quoting the pretty surreal lies that MAGA Republicans say about anyone who’s not MAGA….shrug emoji. You’re totally, completely fucked.
The bad guys have won and now the issue is how do we mitigate things going forward, rather than having any sort of political system. I suppose our best case scenario at this moment is anyone who wants to get out of the country, can. That may be 10 million people, but, like, I said, that’s the best case scenario.
Since we can’t have that, I guess just being able to avoid a civil war and maybe having a military junta is our second best option? Then there’s a tie between civil war and fascist MAGA autocracy.
The Traditionalists in my family are all-in with fascism. They don’t really know that they are, but the policies they support are pure cut fascist in nature. They are squeamish about the threat of violence element of fascism….but everything else….all systems go.
So, I don’t know what to tell you. If you can get out the country, then do so.
I’m growing tired with arguing with people who aren’t alarmed with the rise of American fascism. Either you see it or you don’t. Either you realize that just after Election Day 2024 we’re going to be faced with the existential choice of MAGA fascist autocracy, military junta or civil war or you don’t.
While I continue to believe we’re not going to have a civil war — that doesn’t stop me from worrying about that possibility a lot. A whole lot.
If, for no other reason, ding-dong Trump forcing the matter. He could, unto himself, force us to confront that issue of autocracy or civil war one way or another.
And if there is a civil war, it’s going to be Blues who start it. But maybe I am being hysterical. Maybe we’re going to just muddle through this existential crisis just like we muddle through everything else.
I have given up trying to do anything about access journalist and “Trump Whisperer” Maggie Haberman. She’s got a very high profile coterie of Blue Checks willing to circle the wagons around her whenever she does something like wait a year to break a huge Trump story.
I heard this on the latest Pod Save America where they had a guest host on the pod with the other guys and he was throwing pretty basic truth bombs about Haberman…and there was awkward silence whenever it happened. Twitter liberals can not, will not, address the problems of access that blemish an otherwise stellar journalist career.
Then ding-dong Trump posted this and now I feel bad for Haberman.
Trump is totally losing his mind, it seems. And he’s getting worse. And, yet, we’ve been saying shit like that for ages now and…nothing. So, I don’t know. There just nothing we can do about Trump.
He has the means, motive and opportunity to cheat his way to victory in 2024…and that’s when Blue States either bend a knee to autocratic MAGA fascism…or they don’t and we have a “National Divorce.”
See you on the ramparts? (I hope not. I hate violence.)
It seems pretty clear that we have a sense of what the next few years will be like. Starting around 2024 — 2025, the United States, and the globe, will go through some sort of massive political transformation. There’s either a civil war in the United States which will cause WW3, or there’s a MAGA autocracy….which will cause WW3.
But what happens after that? What happens to the globe once the dust settles.
I think the 2030s will be a lot like the 1950s. A lot of technological innovation that was either held back because of WW2 or started in WW2 came to the fore during that decade. And I think the same thing will happen in the 2030s. A lot of the things that Elon Musk is working on now will take off in a big way in the 2030s.
The key thing I think we have to keep an eye on is AI and automation. There are about 3 million high paying blue collar jobs in transportation that could go “poof!” if Musk’s dream of AI-powered self-driving cars become a reality. Meanwhile, on the other end other end of the spectrum, there is the possibility that much of lower-end fast food preperation will be done by androids.
All that could cause a massive shift in the economics and politics of either war torn America or a MAGA autocracy. The rise of neo-Luddites could be a real possibility in the 2030s.
No one listens to me and I’m always wrong, so lulz.