by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I can’t predict the future. In the end, this could all mean nothing because instead of civil war, we just slip peacefully into autocracy. And, yet, with their decision tonight to effectively end Roe V. Wade, SCOTUS has pushed us closer to a Second American Civil War.
I have no idea what it would look like, or if it would be Blue States or Red States that started it, but I do know that the American political system is so fragile right now that this little push on it could ultimately have huge consequences. This is another bolt popping off or liberal democracy.
There will come a point when there are no bolts left to lose and we have to make a historical, existential choice about what we’re going to do about the divisions America faces — are we going to become a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy, or are we going to bomb ourselves into the stone age in our struggle to figure out which vision of America will win out.
Or, put another way — we face a spectrum, with civil war at one end and autocracy at the other end. After generations of stability and muddling through, the United States has again reached a moment in its history where everyone has to take a side — even if they don’t want to. And there will be no clear narrative as to which side is the right side until after the shooting has not just begun, but ended.
I mean, if Red States try to make up for their small populations and economies by using WMD on Blue States during any putative civil war, then, lulz, they could very well win. Or it could be that the United States simply crashes into a number of smaller nation-states that are always at war with each other. We could join the Soviet Union in the dustbin of history — instead of the United States there will be five or six (or 10?) smaller states that exist where the United States once existed.
The case could be made that all China has to do is be patient — they will have every opportunity to take Taiwan around 2025 because either President DeSantis brings the boys home or we’re so busy having a civil war that we don’t have time to worry about saving Taiwan (or anyone else, for that matter.)
I really have no idea which existential choice we’re going to take. For the moment, however, I think our transition into autocratic managed democracy will be peaceful. There may be huge protests AFTER we’re an autocracy, but, just like with Russia…they will be a lulz.
I wish I had some good news. I don’t.
