Tag: Second American Civil War

The United States Is Lurching Towards a ‘Hard’ Autocracy…Or Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I often say, the saying goes you go bankrupt gradually then all at once and that’s exactly what’s going on with the USA right now politically. Either we find oursleves in a situation where Congress is forever in control of MAGA and we drift into a more “hard” autocracy than we would otherwise imagine….or we have a civil war.

Now, I have written a great deal about my musings about civil war or revolution over the years and I look like a fool now because none of them have come anywhere near coming true. But, in my defense, the issue is that Republicans have generally won so they, being the people who seemingly want a civil war so bad, have be placated and so nothing has happened.

Meanwhile, pressure is ever-so-slowly building on Blues.

There is going to come a point where Blues may be forced to fish or cut bait when it comes to the USA as we currently imagine it. If it becomes clear that Republicans are going to impose MAGA values on the entirety of the USA, Blues, not Reds, may revolt.

I don’t want that, but it’s….possible. It’s something to think about. Because it the horrible tribalism that has infected the MAGA side of things may also begin to pop up within Blues if we are controlled by MAGA for the next few decades with no end in sight.

The End Of Pax Americana

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the old post-WW2 liberal order is…dying. It definitely seems as though we in a new era where anything is possible. I keep expecting that Trump will drop a MOAB or tactical nuke on Iran sometime soon.

I watch the little cartoon history videos called “History Matters” and it definitely seems like this would be the part of the video that was a precursor to Something Big. I don’t know what that Something Big is going to be, but it’s probably going to happen this year.

My fear, of course, is that there’s a major terrorist attack in the USA, or Trump uses some combination of the SAVE Act and a forced “nationalization” of elections to attempt to turn the USA into a “managed democracy.” And THAT, in turn causes a civil war or revolution.

But hopefully that’s not what’s going to happen.

And, yet, I do think this year is going to be far more turbulent that any of us could possibly expect otherwise.

It Will Probably Be A Dirty Bomb

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If Iran attacks the US in the homeland, it probably will with some sort of dirty bomb. They have the means, motive and potentially opportunity do do such a thing.

I know a dirty bomb is a plot point from Blade Runner 2049, but, lulz, it’s a real possibility.

It’s just the type of fucked up shit that Trump would need to declare martial law or to just in general doing something like cancel the 2026 elections.

That’s where all of this is going, I think. And when Trump does that, then we probably have a civil war and or revolution of some sort.

Good luck.

The Last Question

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though This Is It. The USA is going to either become a zombie democracy like Hungary (or Russia) or we’re going to have a civil war / revolution.

We’re going to find out later this year one way or another, now that the SAVE Act seems like it’s going to pass.

At the moment, I think we’re probably going to just muddle into an autocratic “managed democracy” and not until people like me are literally being snatched in the street will anyone notice or care what’s going on.

But by then, of course, it will be way, way too late.

So there you go. Get out of the country if you have the means.

Tucker Carlson & The Quest For A Trump Successor

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I firmly believe that Trump’s historical purpose is to destroy the American Constitutional order to the point that it either implodes into a pure Russian-style autocracy or we are forced to have a Constitutional Convention to ride the ship of state.

I honestly don’t know which one will happen.

Regardless, Trump isn’t going to live forever. And he’s old. So, someone has to pick up the tyrannical mantle in his name. J.D. Vance currently has the best shot of being that dude…and, yet, Tucker Carlson is lurking in the shadows, ready to pop out.

Carlson is the perfect guy to take over for Trump, I suppose. Though I think he is kind of short. (Of course, given how history works, this could be negated if Democrats nominate a woman or…Jon Stewart.)

Anyway, it definitely will be interesting to see what happens. I still think Trump is going to run for a third term, destroy everything and then we’ll all sit around, scratching our heads as to what we’re supposed to do next. I do think if Trump ran for a third term that that, in itself, would start a civil war /revolution.

Stop The Steal 2026

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There probably won’t be free-and-fair elections later this year. As such, the possibility of severe political chaos when Trump seizes ballot boxes (or whatever) is very real. This severity could be up to and including something a lot like a civil war.

Though, probably what would happen is it would be closer to Blues doing a January 6-the type insurrection. (Ugh.)

And, yet, I just don’t think Blues have it in them. They are too feckless and probably will get really mad on Twitter and that will be that. Trump will steal the election in a very brazen manner and we’ll become a “managed democracy” like they have in Hungary and Russia.

But only time will tell, I suppose.

Minneapolis Is A Turning Point, But…

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I do agree that what’s going on in Minneapolis is a “turning point,” I just don’t see it as anything that might lead to the downfall of Trumplandia. We’re stuck with MAGA for decades to come.

We’re just fucked.

The only way we get rid of MAGA is if Blues win a revolution or civil war and I just don’t want to go through that. So, lulz? I guess I just need to wrap up this novel I’m working on, hope I can sell it and get the fuck out of this country.

‘Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.’ — JFK

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Politically, the USA is in a luminal space. We have a nasty fascist staph infection that is only getting worse by the day. And, as such, I just don’t see us having free-and-fair elections ever again.

And, with that in mind, I do think there is a greater-than-zero chance of a revolution / civil war in the USA between late 2026 and early 2029.

I have said such things repeatedly in the past and nothing happened. And I can’t promise you I’ll get it right this time — I sure hope I don’t. The American population is just too blasé, too copacetic. I would be stunned if they did anything untoward like a revolution or civil war.

What’s more likely to happen is we’ll implode politically into a “zombie” democracy like they have in Hungary or Russia and probably Trump will divide the world up between the US, China and Russia.

And that, as they say, will be that.

Good luck, folks. Get out if you can.

I Don’t Know What To Tell You, Folks

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We are at a crossroads. Either we implode into autocracy or we explode into civil war and / or revolution. At the moment, at least, it definitely looks as though we’re just going to slowly transform into a “managed democracy” like Russia or Hungary and that will be that.

I just can’t believe that the Americans would actually risk their “lives and scared honor” in the real world to the point that we might actually have a revolution and / or civil war.

It just doesn’t seem possible at this point.

The only way I could maybe, just maybe see a civil war or revolution happening is if the SAVE Act passes. That might cause enough frustration to build up within the American political system that we might actually collapse into revolution and or civil war.

Or, I could see if Trump tried to cancel the 2026 midterms for some reason. Then, yeah, I could see a civil war / revolution (prompted by the Blues.)

And, lastly, if Trump ran for a third term in 2028, that, too, would probably be enough for the country to be pushed into chaos that would resemble a civil war or revolution.

We Creep Closer To The Invocation Of The Insurrection Act In Minnesota

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future, but I am worried that the new shooting in Minneapolis will be enough to be the tipping point so Trump invokes the Insurrection Act. I have been feeling weird the last few days, as if something big was about to happen and maybe that is it.

Though, to be fair, in real terms, the Insurrection Act is more a issue of perception and introducing the idea of marital law later down the road than it is some sort of magical-mystery device to make all of Trump’s problems go away.

And I really don’t think even the Insurrection Act or martial law would produce a civil war or revolution. People continue to be way too blasé about Trump and only should Trump try to literally try to cancel the 2026 midterms do I think we get a civil war or revolution.

Only time will tell, I suppose.