Of all the states, Texas is the most likely to start the process of National Divorce if Trump loses this fall. Of course, on the other side, California is the one state I could see leaving the Union — or prompting Trump being deposed — if he goes full tyrant after he wins.
Anyway, keep an eye on Texas. The secessionist rhetoric has gotten so bad in the state that at some point a newspaper there ran an editorial telling everyone to shut up about it.
It will be interesting to see what happens, is all I gotta say.
My fear is, of course, that if Trump loses that he will, unto himself, spark a civil war. The reason why I think this is how radical, on an institutional basis, state Republican Parties have become.
As such, I don’t think it would be too absurd to suggest that if Trump loses and he begins to rant and rant and RANT that he was “cheated” yet again, there is a pretty good chance that states — beginning with Texas — will call up Secessionists Conventions.
This is all very speculative — and a bit nuts.
What the “normal” person would tell you is no amount of ranting on Trump’s part could possibly lead any state — Texas or otherwise — to do such a radical thing. But I’m worried. Really worried.
It seems as though things have come to a head. It seems to me that Texas’ Republican Party has, collectively, decided the state is already one foot out of the Union already.
Anyway, who knows. I can’t predict the future. Anything — or nothing — might happen.
Well, after about 24 hours of excitement, it seems like we’re back to just meh. Nothing of note is happening. And it could be that for the next few weeks that’s what it’s going to be like — just one long meh.
I still don’t know what’s going to happen this fall and winter. It really could go either way. It really could. It could be that, lulz, nothing happens. And it could be a regular HOLY SHIT moment in America’s history.
I hope all my ranting about the possibility of a civil war / revolution is totally wrong. But there is going to be a moment — maybe a few moments — during late 2024, early 2025 when we all have to take a deep breath and see which way things are headed.
But, maybe, the point is just to relax and enjoy not much going on. August, though, tends to be a pretty shitty month. So bad, maybe it would be better if it just didn’t exist.
Yet, who knows, maybe this year’s August will be different.
The problem with Trump — and there are many to choose from — is inevitably really smart people make some very complex determinations about him that just aren’t applicable.
Trump is a simple political figure — (older) (white) conservatives [men] feel disenfranchised.
That’s it. That’s all that’s going on.
And they will latch on to anyone and anything that will make them feel like they can “make America great again” by giving what they perceive is their lost status in the social, cultural and political pecking order.
This is an issue that isn’t going anywhere. It’s going to linger and linger until either we have a civil war because Blues leave the Union or we have a civil war because Reds leave the Union.
It is a fever that will never, ever break for macro reasons. We’re totally, completely fucked.
Now, having said that, I can’t predict the future. I’m sure *something* might happen that prevents a civil war. And it could be that Trump is elected, goes “full tyrant” and…nothing happens. About 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country, leaving Poors like me to my fate, and lulz, that’s it.
But, again — I can’t predict the future. This is just my mid-summer dread speaking at the moment.
I keep ranting about how I think all these horrible things will happen in late 2024, early 2025, but let me be clear — I have no fucking clue what is going to happen.
I have a lot of unease, a lot of worry, but it could be that we either defeat Trump and it’s all a lulz, or Trump goes full tyrant and no one cares. But there is one thing we have to remember — we’re dealing with structural problems. MAGA isn’t going anywhere.
The fever isn’t ever going to break. The political rot of MAGA is severe, macro and could very well destroy us.
According to the Hollywood-related podcasts that I listen to, “Survive Until 25” is the current mantra in LA. Apparently, showbiz is kind of imploding at the moment. I really don’t know why — I’m just some rando in the middle of nowhere — but it is interesting.
One reason why it’s interesting is it’s happening right as two things — one political, the other technological — are about to crash onto Hollywood in something of a perfect storm.
It could be that by 2025, things like OpenAI’s “Sora” will really begin to take off in the context, of, well the whole world collapsing because of severe political turbulence in the USA and, by extension, the whole world.
(Let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen, but I continue to have a lingering fear about such things.)
Anyway, I don’t know what to tell you. It could be that Hollywood is going to undergo a pretty radical transformation in the next few years and 2025 could not be a year of rebirth, but rather one of radical upheaval and transformation.
I don’t know what to tell you. I don’t know how we collectively make it out alive this autumn. But, maybe, just maybe, all my dystopian hellscape ranting is just a bunch of bullshit overthinking.
I am prone to do that, you know.
There are all these different things that might happen. From a certification crisis, to Trump going full tyrant. You name it.
The key issue for me at the moment is, if Trump loses, will he demand a National Divorce and will people listen to him if he does. I think, on a state basis, Texas really would agree to leaving the Union.
That will cause the country to buckle.
Now, obvious, Trump could win and then, lulz, we have to deal with him going full tyrant. But, I dunno. If he loses, we’re so close to the country buckling already that it seems like if Trump starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce that it might really happen.
Then I have to figure out what the fuck I’m going to do. I still think my best is to head North, once some sort of infrastructure for domestic political refugees has been built out.
All the signs continue to point to Something Big happening in late 2024, early 2025. Either we have a civil war or Trump goes full tyrant, pushes Blue States out of the Union, gets deposed….and we have a civil war. Or something along those lines.
But I can’t predict the future. It could be that, lulz, there (thankfully) won’t be any violence and we’ll just drift into some New Era, one way or another. But the key thing for me is — if Trump loses, will he be able to convince Reds to leave the Union on a state basis.
While I don’t seriously think I’ll become a domestic political refugee, there is a non-zero chance that it might happen starting at some point in late 2024, early 2025 if the country buckles. And it could happen no matter who wins.
If Trump wins, it might happen because he goes full tyrant.
If he loses, it might happen because he rants about the need for a National Divorce.
So, I don’t know. It really could happen either way. I’m going to try to hold out as long as I can. But I suppose if things get too tense, I can at least make it as far as Richmond before I have to fish or cut bait. I do think Virginia will be the first state to collapse if the country buckles.
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