The Dark Truth At The Heart Of Trump’s 2020 Election ‘Big Lie’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In the end, the point of Trump’s “Big Lie” is the MAGA New Right no longer sees the concept of a liberal democracy with an ebb and flow as legitimate. Everything is now an absolute zero sum political game. Compromise, by definition, is weakness and, as such, must be crushed.

Any policy or law that helps the common good but doesn’t demonstrably help the cause of Trumplandia must, too, be crushed.

The end game is minority white autocratic rule — or civil war.

A prime example of this is how the MAGA New Right thinks Fox News is a bunch of RINOS and they now have gravitated towards OANN and NewsMax. The MAGA New Right WANTS to be given a media narrative that only makes sense if you’re preparing for the violent overthrow of a liberal democracy that will usher in a long-term autocracy.

Because, lulz, that’s what they want.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg on such bullshit. They don’t want an investigation of the January 6th insurrection not only because a honest investigation probably will implicate some pretty powerful people in the Republican Party, but they still support the aims of the insurrection itself.

They are enraged that Mike Pence did his job and didn’t throw the whole process into chaos after they made it clear to him they wanted him dead for not doing just that.

It’s shit like this that make me think that it’s pretty clear that no later than 2024-2025, we’re going to be faced with the existential choice of civil war or autocracy.

It’s difficult for modern Americans to wrap their minds around the idea of a civil war, while an autocracy is a lot easier so they assume that’s what’s going to happen. But I beg to differ — no fate but what we make. There’s a greater than zero chance that the MAGA New Right bungles our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy and there is an organize murder of Americans by Americans for political reasons — a civil war.

It’s not like I want this, far from it. But there’s a reason why I have sent off for a new passport. It will come in handy when I’m in a refugee camp in Maine near the Canadian border.

The Dangerous Idiot — Cyber Ninjas, The Arizona ‘Audit’ & Trump


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What makes Trump so dangerous is he keeps being himself when it comes to the sham Cyber Ninjas “audit” of the 2020 Arizona presidential election results, which leads you to wonder if something like a far worse version of January 6th could happen because of it.

Chauncy Gardner, only far more dangerous.

That’s the thing about Trump and January 6th — he had absolutely no idea what the endgame for his ranting would be. He’s not smart enough to do the basic autocratic plays necessary to pull off an actual coup, so he just ranted about the Big Lie in abstract terms.

So, Trump and his toadies went through all this trouble to see if they could get Pence to not certify the election, but they didn’t really think through the political or historical consequences of their actions. There was no guile, at least on Trump’s part. His January 6th machinations were little more than a very stupid political grunt.

The same thing with what’s going on with Cyber Ninjas in Arizona. Trump knows he wants to become president as quickly as possible — even if it means destroying the country in the process — but he’s a spoil little brat and thinks if he just uses The Secret enough that the law of attraction will make it happen. And, so, the rest of us are left wondering what’s going to happen.

To date, nothing has happened.

But Trump has begun to talk in concrete terms about the “decertification” of election results in states across the country and he honestly thinks he’s going to be “reinstated” because of such bullshit, even though it’s not, in anyway, possible.

And, as such, my prediction that we could go from “decertification” to “nullification” to “secession” seems a fair bet for a possible near future crisis.

But there’s a hitch.

On paper, it definitely seems as though my dystopian civil war scenario is possible. But at the same time, for such a thing to happen, Trump would have to not only go transaction in a concrete way, but Republicans in critical states would have to take him seriously and literally.

What Republicans like Trump want, I think, is simply have the abstract idea of decertification as a talking point to rile up the base and to make money. They see it as a possible way to maybe give Trump the option of being Speaker of the House when Republicans inevitably flip that chamber in 2022.

And, yet, as January 6th shows, it’s possible that things will take on a momentum all their own and if Trump rants about “decertification” enough, the the base will demand something be done about it. Then elected officials in MAGA states across the country will feel so much pressure that “Decertification Conventions” will be held.

Before you know it, because of mission creep, we go nullification then secession.

Then you start talking about the provisional Trumplandia federal government and how many Republicans are willing to jump off a cliff to join this new Red State collection of states.

But I think that at the moment, that’s really pushing things. Trump is all talk and a scaredy cat to boot. He just doesn’t have the autocratic chops to do all these dystopian things I come up with. This is something he’s proven again and again.

As such, I think we’re going to kick the crisis of civil war down the road until the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

Texas, California & A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy shit.

I saw this on Twitter and had to comment. Sometimes, I feel like I’m just talking into the aether when it comes to my fears that at some point between now and January 2025 the United States is going to face the existential choice of civil war or autocracy.

So, when I read the above imagine on Twitter I almost gasped — this is just the type of talk that one would expect from a modern antebellum America. On a basic level, I just don’t know what exactly California is doing to Texas that is so bad to warrant bloodshed on a mass scale.

All things being equal, the United States — Texas and California included — is a stable and prosperous nation. There’s no need for the individual states of the United States to be at each other’s throats. Also, as I have mentioned repeatedly on this blog, there’s a big difference between being in peace afforded the luxury of being a latte sipping soyboy and having to put your blood on the line to defend your personal freedom.

As such, at the moment, it’s easy to see why a ding-bat Texas nationalist might think California would collapse like a “rotten door” as Hitler might say. I would suggest that if the United States actually buckled AND California felt it was in its self-interest to fight the good fight against seditionist Red States that we would all be very impressed with how well they will fight.

A lot of what the MAGA New Right thinks about places like California is complete self-serving bullshit that once put to a test is going to come back bite them. In other words — California has a huge population and economy that could easily be converted to a deadly weapon of war should it be put on a (civil) war footing.

And, yet I doubt anything can stop the momentum, the dead hand of history, that is hurdling us towards civil war or autocracy.

‘The United States Of Canada’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All of my dystopian hellscape scenarios about the potential for a coming Second American Civil War to date leave out one important thing — any civil war would not happen in a geopolitical vacuum.

So, it’s very likely that Canada — at least — would get sucked into America’s civil war black hole if that particular seal was broken. As such, it’s easy to imagine there not really being a definitive conclusion to any such civil war. It could be that the United States could literally split into the USC (United States of Canada) and, uh, Trumplandia.

That’s been the flaw in a lot of my back-of-the-envelope scenarios about a Second American Civil War — I assumed that one side or the other would win completely. But it’s possible once all is said and done there will be the USC and Trumplandia. The creation of these two states would be EXTREMLY MESSY and BLOODY, but, lulz at least the good old boys of Trumplandia will, at last, be “left alone.”

Fuck those guys, by the way.

Now, I suspect that if the USC is born that California won’t join the Union at the beginning of any civil war. California, as I keep writing, is something of a wild card because it has such a huge economy and united polity that it’s kind of a nation-state unto itself. Anyway. Canada fucking hates the United States, but it only has 35 million people. The American refugees alone during any Second American Civil War would be enough to transform Canada into something that could join with most of the Blue States to form the USC.

I don’t want a civil war. But the MAGA New Right definitely seems fucking determined to have one.

Modern Antebellum America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I inadvertently caused a liberal I know to get REALLY worked up when I made the case that lulz, nothing matters when it comes to the Cyber Ninjas “audit” of the Arizona presidential vote. He started to yell, correctly, about what a sham it all was.

Once I got him calmed down, I said he was right, but it didn’t matter — the entire point of the “audit” was, at a minimum, to give MAGA New Right cocksuckers the ability to say, “I guess we’ll never know” who won the 2020 election. But that’s just the baseline — what they really want is some sort of “proof” that they might use to “decertify” enough states that they can start to talk about reinstating Trump early.

Now, if you really want to talk a sooner-rather-later civil war, then Trump finally gets some traction about this very thing and MAGA state legislatures hold “Nullification Conventions” that become “Secession Conventions” and away we go.

But the case could be made that if that hyper-dystopian scenario doesn’t happen, then all this bullshit in Arizona would be the thing Trump would use to shiv House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy when it comes to who will be the Republican Speaker of the House in 2023.

Trump says that Arizona “proves” that he’s “still president” and, as such, he should be in the line of succession for POTUS. He gets it, impeaches both Biden and Harris and then tells Senate Democrats — push Biden and Harris out of office, or we have a civil war.

And THAT doesn’t even begin to address that if we avoid all that bullshit that we have the final, absolute certain future history of a civil war staring in the the general late 2024 to early 2025 timeframe because of a certification crisis.

So, we’re fucked.

But if you look at macro trends, this was going to happen. It was just a matter of the exact sequence of events. And the case could be made that Trump is SUCH a FUCKING IDIOT that of all the possible would-be fascists to cause a civil war, Trump is the weakest of the bunch as long as he’s around. It’s when something happens to knock him out of the equation and we have to deal with Josh Hawley, Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton coming for our liberal democracy that we have a serious, serious problem.

Our history of the future isn’t written yet, though. Anything could happen. We may somehow, miraculously dodge the civil war bullet, but thing’s aren’t looking so great.

Only time will tell.

James Woods, Civil War & A Renewed American Covenant: The Political Agony And The Ecstasy That Is California


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone like Trump was going to happen. Something about Obama’s second term cracked the noggin of the American Right. It went septic and insane. And it just so happened that dingas Trump had enough credibility because of his birther nonsense that when the voice of fate called his name, he answered.

I love alternative history and it’s very easy to sketch out a situation where Trump wasn’t picked on by Seth Meyers WHCD and, as such, Trump decided to play president in a Sharknado movie. The person who could have filled Trump’s spot in our history is James Woods. He’s a really intense, really conservative motherfucker who had he been nudged by Fortuna, might have run instead of Trump — and won.

That points out something about California — it’s actually odd that Trump from New York and not someone like Woods in California became our fascist nightmare. It politically makes a lot more sense for a really progressive state like California to pop out popular conservative figure (e.g Reagan) than the more moderate New York State. Though, I guess you could say that NYC is kind of a state unto itself and, as such, had the same dynamic as a fascist coming from California.

But I have the idea of a Second American Civil War on the brain a lot (as do, apparently, a lot of MAGA New Right cocksuckers) and, as such, I think a lot about what California would do if that tragedy happened. In the beginning stages of any such conflict, there would likely be a lot of wavering on the part of California leadership as if they even wanted to get involved. A civil war might be their only chance to bounce from the Union peacefully.

And, yet, I would like to think that they would rise to the occasion and throw their lot in with the Blue Army. California of the 2020s is the New York State of the 1860s. And, as such, its easy to imagine if the Good Guys win a Second American Civil War that a lot of dead progressive measures would be enacted to fix a lot of long-term, structural problems with the United States at the moment. Just as the we renewed the Union’s covenant of states in 1865, if we had a second civil war, we might do it again with the ideals of California as its basis.

At the same time, I think a lot about how fucked up California is right now. It seems like the place is over run with homeless people and that civil order is beginning to fall apart. It’s all very curious. I guess the case could be made that a civil war might be just the swift kick in the ass California collectively needs to stop thinking about their chakras and start to get down to the hard business of keeping the state’s bolts tight.

What do I know, though. Absolutely no one listens to me.

The Idiotic American Civil War Of 2021 That Didn’t Happen (Yet?)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We really dodged a bullet earlier this year. Or, more specifically from about November 2020 to January 2021. In a lot of other nations, we would have descended into a horrific civil war that would still be going on.

But none of that happened because the person with whom history entrusted such a horrible event to Donald Fucking Trump, was too lazy and stupid to pull it off. He wanted to destroy the United States violently, but he just “couldn’t get it up” to coin a phrase.

Don’t get me wrong, ding-dong Trump is still very dangerous and he is one of a number of people who could, through a MAGA Congress’ nullification of a Biden win in 2025 force us to the breaking point.

But that hasn’t happened yet. Nor has the civil war — or popular revolt — in 2021 that so many MAGA New Right cocksuckers seem to crave. Though, in all honesty, I don’t think they really want a civil war in the concrete. For the time being, at least, a “civil war” is just an abstract talking point that they use when drinking Miller Light with their friends on the back porch of their cabin where they SWEAR they saw Big Foot one time.

Anyway, much to my surprise and delight, the Union continues to be holding up pretty well. At least on the surface. It’s definitely a lot more unstable that Blue Check liberals would have us believe — but, there would need to be a huge catalyst of some sort for there to be an actual hot civil war in the United States in 2021. August hasn’t come yet, so I guess it’s still possible.

And we are still well on track to have a civil war at some point between Election Day 2024 and Congressional Certification Day 2025.

Get your rest. Buy a passport. Get ready.

America’s Abstract Obsession With A 2021 Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus Christ, people, cool it with the “civil war 2021” searches. Almost no one reads this blog on a daily basis and the vast majority of the people who do are looking for dystopian hellscape civil war scenario content like I write about here all the time.

It appears that — especially in the much of the old CSA — people are obsessed with the idea that, literally, at any moment, a civil war is going to break out in the United States. My current theory is the long-standing abstract fears that conservatives have about “cancel culture” and “Critical Race Theory” have leapt into something darker — civil war.

So, a lot of conservatives don’t know exactly what it going to happen, but they think, in abstract terms, that “a civil war in 2021” is going to happen. I don’t even know if they really think about what it would actually entail, just that they hate “libtards” so much that that’s the only thing that can think of that is going to happen. It’s the worst thing possible, and their frustration with “libtards” who “won’t leave them alone” has gotten so bad that, obviously, a civil war is going to break out at any moment.

A similar abstract belief on these MAGA New Right conservatives is that there is going to be a popular revolt on the part of conservatives to “take back America” from the “evil libtards” that are doing nefarious things in the non-extant basement of pizza join in the Washington area.

I’m not saying that it’s not saying a “civil war 2021” isn’t possible. But what I am saying is you would need a catalyst — and a pretty big one.

As such, all these abstract fears about a civil war this year will come true — just in the general 2024-2025 timeframe when we’re struggling to get a MAGA controlled Congress to certify a Biden re-election. It will be THEN that we face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

But I will admit that the United States is primed and ready for a civil war in 2021. It’s just not going to happen out of the blue. Some sort of unexpected, outside pressure would have to be exerted on the system for it happen.

And, at the moment, that has yet to happen.

‘Republican Secession Scenarios’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Since someone searched for that and found this blog, I will write about it. One thing is clear — Republicans have been such a steady flow of bullshit that they are primed and ready for a secession crisis should it ever occur.

But there would need to be a catalyst, something to spark MAGA state legistatures to begin to call secession conventions. I just don’t believe Republicans have it in them to rise up and start murdering liberals en mass. They’re all talk — or frustration. Trump is a coward and a joke when it comes such shit and even if he went transactional for some reason, he’s such a pantywaist that he would hide behind the “it’s not my fault” defense. He wouldn’t own any secession and run with it. (At least, not at first, unless it got some traction.)

Yet, as a I keep writing, there are a wide array of potential secession scenarios facing us. Most of them don’t really apply to 2021 but rather the 2024-2025 timeframe. In a sense, if there was a secession crisis now it would be a win for the forces of democracy because The Good Guys would control the military and it would be pretty clear for their to be a media narrative for the broader public as to what should happen.

It’s when you have the very murky situation surrounding a potential Congressional certification fight that all hell could break loose because it would be difficult for their to be any sort of clear understanding of who was in the right. (Which would be the whole point of MAGA balking at certifying a Biden win in the first place.)

The only secession crisis I can think up that would happen in 2021 would have something to do with Cyber Ninjas in Arizona “proving” that Trump “won” the state and that sets of a series of events whereby Trump goes transactional and MAGA states start to leave the Union immediately.

So, in general, unless something really unexpected happens, we should be ok until late 2024 and early 2025. Then, we’ll either have a civil war or turn into an autocracy.

‘the next civil war in America 2021’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, within some MAGA New Right circles, there is a lot of mental energy being put into the idea that there is either going to be a violent national MAGA revolution by the end of the year, or a similar-type civil war. This blog is about as unread as you can get, and what little traffic there is now is almost exclusively from people obviously on the exact opposite end of the political spectrum form me obsessing about the exact details of a civil war or MAGA revolution this year.

There are a few ways I can imagine a civil war happening. The chief one would be the Cyber Ninjas bullshit in Arizona causes some sort of nullification crisis that turns into a secession crisis that turns into a civil war. But the only way I can imagine any sort of “violent populist MAGA New Right revolution” happening is if Trump pulled a Scalia on us and shuffled off this mortal coil peacefully in his sleep — and the MAGA ammosexuals don’t believe it and start running around, murdering people in the name of their martyred, bonkers dipshit hero.

So, it’s at least possible that there might be a civil war in 2021, but it grows less and less likely. If we can get pass August, I think we’re ok. I’m even less willing to believe this year will see any sort of violent MAGA New Right overthrow of the government.

But, I get, the people who want a violent MAGA revolution “just want to be left alone” and, as such, they want to murder people for their politics.