The Looming Prospect of An American Fourth Reich — The MAGA Right Has Gone Full Fascist

by Shelt Garner

Just in the last few days, the MAGA chattering class on Twitter has decided to go all-in on fascism. They’re openly talking about the need for a Right wing dictator along the lines of Franco, of all people.

And, given that it definitely seems as though the United States is about to default for the first time ever, it seems as though the conditions for the US to transition into a fascist state are just about there. Trump will be get re-elected — even if he’s under indictment for violating the Espionage Act — he will demand MAGA Enabling Acts be stapled to the Constitution via a new Constitutional Convention and, there you go — The Fourth Reich.

All my hysterical doom shit — the shit that got me blocked by Twitter liberal darling Mueller, She Wrote — will come true. And we’ll be faced with the existential choice of autocracy or civil war / revolution.

It definitely seems as though that’s our future. Or, put another way, the moment the US defaults for the first time, all bets are off. The French Empire defaulted in the years leading up to the French Revolution, so, lulz? Either we implode into a white Christian ethnostate or we explode into civil war / revolution.

If it happens, it’s probably going to be at some point in late 2024, early 2025.

Would The Indictment Of Trump For Espionage Be A ‘Disruptive Event?’

by Shelt Garner

Let me be clear — I think much like the late Roman Empire, America has given itself over to the macro forces of history. We’ve just given up and there just doesn’t seem to be any way to avoid our inevitable transition into an illiberal democracy.

In fact, between now and spring 2025, our choice will be rather stark — autocracy or civil war.

So, I don’t really give much credence to the idea that anything — ANYTHING — can stop Trump from being 2024 Republican nominee and probably the next POTUS. In short, we’re fucking doomed. And, yet, for some reason, 50 Senators have, according to CBS News, been given satellite phones because of the fear of “a disruptive event.”

Just like how the paranoid Right spent 30 years mulling what James Baker was going to say in the “New World Order” speech that he never gave, it’s possible that the same people are going to spend the next 20 years worried about a “disruptive event” that never comes.

But it does seem that Trump might — MIGHT — be on the cusp of being indicted for a number of Big Boy Crimes, amongst them being espionage. I just don’t see that as rising to the status of a “disruptive event,” however, because everything is so baked into the cake with Trump that even if he, I don’t know, ate someone live on TV, he would still be 60,000 voters in five swing states away from being president.

That’s how much America has collectively given the fuck up.

It definitely will be interesting to see Trump running for POTUS between now and Election Day 2024 having been indicted for espionage of all things. Jesus Christ.

But, here we are.

The Political Implications of America’s Looming Default

by Shelt Garner

Here are, in no particular order, the political consequences of the United States defaulting.

Trump Will Probably Win In 2024
A default would hand Trump an economic gimmie on a massive scale. Unless something none of us could possibly predict, America defaulting all but assures a second Trump Administration. In short — we’re totally, completely fucked. I still believe that Trump, in the end, will be something of a transitional figure with his MAGA Nazi successor being the person who finally consolidates power and turns us into a Hungary-like illiberal democracy.

Probability of Revolution / Civil War Grows Greatly

By definition, a default would not only totally scramble the world economy — maybe causing the Second Great Recession — but would also destabilize the United States to the point that when the 2024 election rolls around, we either have a civil war (Reds leaving the Union) or a revolution (Blues overthrowing the Red Nazi autocratic state.) Regardless, it’s going to be fucked. It’s going to be horrible and there’s a real chance that WW3 will happen while the United States is too busying imploding to keep an eye on global hotspots.

UBI Becomes Closer To Reality

A severe recession would give companies the cover they needed to use AI to replace many, many, MANY jobs, to the point that it’s even possible that implementing some sort of UBI will be a major campaign issue of the 2024 presidential cycle. It’s possible that it will become clear to everyone that AI is going to end most jobs and the government is going to have to step in. If nothing else, AI’s impact on the economy and society could be far bigger than any of us imagine when it comes to the political landscape of 2024.

Biden’s (First?) Impeachment

MAGA Republicans in the House are already itching for an excuse to impeach Biden and WHATEVER he does in the context of a default that doesn’t involve screwing over the Poors will be enough for House Republicans to ram through an impeachment. It’s a testament to how dumb and ill-focused House Republicans are that they haven’t managed to come up with an excuse to impeach Biden, even though their base obviously wants it really bad.

What is ‘Woke?’

by Shelt Garner

Whenever someone tries to seriously discuss the concept of “being woke” one has to make it clear that it’s a concept largely defined by people who hate it. And, they themselves, really have no idea what it means. The definition of “woke” is, thus, one of just “vibes.”

In fact, the self-appointed definers of “woke” — mostly MAGA conservatives — want there to be no clear definition so everything and nothing can be “woke” as is necessary to “own” the libs. Much like how MAGA Republicans refuse to tell us when, in fact, America was “great,” so, too, do these self-same Republicans refuse to give us any clear definition of what “to be woke” is.

As such, we’re left rummaging through the often very dumb, very vacuous arguments made by MAGA Republicans when they want to juice the base to vote. So, with that in mind, let’s address the issue at had, “What is woke?”

Terror By Vibe
It seems clear to me that the entire notion of “wokness” says more about MAGA Republican conservatives than it does the word itself. Much of the hysterical rhetoric about “wokeness” on the part of Republicans is a direct, kneejerk reaction to the combination of the browning of America and the growing economic power of women.

What’s more, if you scramble all of this in the blinder of the greater Fox News and conservative podcast echo chamber, you end up in a situation where people who should know better will tell you with a straight face that “libs” “love” abortions to the point that they’re practicing infanticide. In fact, in my discussion with my conservative relatives — who I love dearly — it definitely seems as though a lot of the outrage over “wokeness” is more anger over how modern society talks about in a very public manner things they feel should be kept private and secret.

So, these people who are so upset about abortion or the gay movement probably don’t mind that either one exists, but they ARE upset at what they perceive is the very public woke agenda on these topics. This is all an extension of how conservative Republicans want to establish an autocratic white Christian ethnostate — sometimes without even realizing that that is, in fact, what they want.

In short, they find the “woke” movement…annoying.

They just know, in general, they hate people who are “woke” — even though they really don’t know what “being woke” means. They just do a vibe check on the issues important to “woke” people and get upset that anyone would think such a thing.

In short, conservative (MAGA) Republicans find woke people really, really annoying for any number of reasons. They neither understand them nor, in some cases, even want to be in the same Union with them.

‘Go Woke, Go Broke’

One thing that any discussion of “being woke” has to mention is there is, in fact, a small but vocal portion of the liberal-progressive movement that has such a narrow minded, strict orthodox about certain issues that they drive traditional conservatives into the arms of fascists.

Take, for instance, the transgender movement.

There is a lot of talk about “protecting trans kids” within “woke” liberal-progressive circles which causes MAGA Republicans to, in turn, freak out at the idea that there are even “trans kids” to be “protected” in the first place. From what I can gather, the idea of “trans kids” is extremely muddled and misleading.

While, yes, growing number of children under 18 are identifying as “trans” the number of children actually transitioning is near zero, if not, in fact, zero. But because woke people run around screaming about how need to “protect trans kids,” MAGA bigots assume such “gender affirming care” must be happen all the time, when, in fact, it’s not.

But it suits the purposes of the all those MAGA conservative podcasts with time to fill and advertisements to sell, so they talk and talk and talk and talk about something that really doesn’t even exist — children under 18 medically changing their gender.

Those libs aren’t going to own themselves, you know.

There is a lot — A LOT — of pretty basic moralism involved in all of this, as well. It’s all vibes, in other words. As Blues grow more secular and brown, Reds grow more Christian and white (and old.) This is where the Gay Scare we’re currently experiencing is coming from. There are MAGA Republicans who feel, by definition being a member of the LGBQ+ community is a “sin” and, as such, the way a long of Gen Z seem to see being gay as aspirational fills them with horror. These MAGA Republicans just want people to be filled with the Holy Spirit and stop messing around with people of the same sex.

And, this is a very important element to all of this — the reason why Republicans hate democracy is they KNOW that they’re losing a demographic battle and, as such, they would rather turn America into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate than do some soul searching and change their policies so they can win elections fair and square.

This is a point too often missed by smug Twitter liberals who seem to feel just being a keyboard warrior online is somehow going to change anything.

There Is No Endgame
I’m not going to give you an pat solutions to the battle over being “woke.” There are none. All I got is the whole battle over “being woke” is a luxury of living in a peaceful, wealthy liberal democracy. When that is no longer the case — when things grow more….existential…then, lulz, the last thing we’re going to have time or energy for is fighting over the proper use of someone’s “pronouns.”

We Have To Take The Prospect of Default — And Biden’s Impeachment For Using The 14th Amendment — Seriously

by Shelt Garner

I just don’t think people are really taking how bumpy the next 18 months could be seriously. It’s very possible that in quick succession, the US will default, Biden will be impeached for trying to solve the problem using the 14th Amendment AND Hollywood will burn to the ground after it grinds to a halt because three strikes that prompt the widespread use of AI.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the prospect of the so-called “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025.

But, as I often say, I’m always, always wrong.

And, yet, I do think that the closer we get to late 2024, early 2025, the more “bumpy” things are going to become. The 2024 election cycle is shaping up to be a massive fucking clusterfuck. The only way we don’t either turn into an autocracy or have a revolution / civil war is if not only does A Democrat win the presidency, but Trump doesn’t do a Stop The Steal Redux.

In other words, the world’s first hyperpower is primed and ready to implode into chaos in such a spectacular manner that it will be said in the breath as the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution.

Man, do I wish I was joking or just spreading “hysterical doom shit.” But I’m not. I really think there is a greater-than-zero chance that the United States is going to have a revolution / civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025. At this point, it’s just an issue of if it’s Reds (civil war) or Blues (revolution) who light the match.

But I do think in the near term that if Biden uses the 14th Amendment to end any sort of defaut that it will be why he’s impeached. It’s simple to understand for the base and it will probably zoom through Congress, only to be stopped cold in its tracks in the Senate.

We’ll see, I guess.

Is Our Future All A Matter of Branding?

by Shelt Garner

The thing about the fucking “Fourth Turning” that the US is careening towards is if we have some sort of “Second American Civil War” either Reds or Blues could be the ones who serve papers in a National Divorce. And, yet, the case could be made that if Reds leave the Union, it’s a Second American Civil War and if it’s Blues who leave the Union, it will be something more akin to a Second Revolution.

I say this because of the temperment of the two sides. Because of the deep echo of the failed CSA nation-state in the South, the idea of a new Red Nation plays well with the MAGA base. Meanwhile, while Blues might get fed up with the US shifting into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate, if they actually put up a fight, they’re more likely to do something more along the lines of a “revolution” rather than “civil war.”

What I mean by that is — if Blues decide to stand their ground at last against the rise of autocratic MAGA Nazi fascism in the United States, their war aims would probably be more about toppling the MAGA Nazi regime rather than starting a new “Blue Nation.” I’m aware that some of that is confirmation bias because that’s MY current thinking on the issue, but lulz.

But I don’t think we have anything to worry about — instead of a revolution or civil war or whatever the fuck you want to call it, we’re going to slip peacefully into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate and hopefully — hopefully — this will help me in my effort to sell my first novel which is pretty much the beginning of a six novel project where I use subtext to fucking rant about how much I fucking hate MAGA.

Why Sydney Sweeney’s Career May End If The US Defaults

by Shelt Garner

While I’m definitely a fan of blonde bombshell Sydney Sweeney, I’m growing a bit alarmed that if the US defaults because of dickhead Republicans that her current white-hot career may crash and burn as a direct result.

I say this because Sweeney’s phenotype is very much a representation of America being pretty prosperous, all things considered. She’s got Marilyn Monroe curves and if we suddenly get thrown into a severe economic crisis because the US defaults on its bills…oh boy.

It could be that virtually overnight, American audiences will turn to women who are more…Twiggy than Sweeney in their phenotype. But let me be clear — I’m usually wrong and this could be another instance of just that: me being wrong.

But I would suggest that if the United States does default that it’s just another road towards some sort of clusterfuck in late 2024, early 2025. I don’t know what that Fourth Turning clusterfuck might be, but it’s going to be big. If the US defaults, then the it’s possible it won’t be a National Divorce we have to worry about but something closer to a Revolution. And it won’t be from the Right, but from the Left.

Remember, Reds are politically ascendant. They have absolutely no reason to start a civil war or a revolution. Meanwhile, there are plenty of patriotic, America-loving people like me who are growing fucking fed up with the racist, misogynistic goals of MAGA.

Anyway, hopefully we won’t default and Ms. Sweeney will have a career that continues to do quite well.

A Pending Struggle Over The USA ‘Brand?’

Editor’s Note: I hate violence. I just needed to vent. I would much prefer we slip peacefully into autocracy if that’s the only way to avoid any sort of political violence — even if it means I end up in a camp.

by Shelt Garner

Let me be clear that I’m totally indifferent about the whole Dylan Mulvaney kerfuffle…but for how absolutely fucking dumb it is. The reason why it’s so dangerous is it’s a simple thing that could be corrosive in the medium-to-long term in the sense that it’s a ping from a future were Blue and Red no longer want to be in the same Union.

The thing is — while I’m willing to entertain the idea of a National Divorce, but I also don’t want a civil war and I want the USA “brand.” So, in a sense, it wouldn’t be a Second American Civil War as opposed to a Second American Revolution in the sense that whatever conflict there might be would be over who gets the USA “brand.”

So, the issue is that maybe we’re so wrapping up to comparing what’s going on in America to a new antebellum era that we miss what might happen instead — a second revolution with the revolution being between Reds and Blues who want to own the USA “brand.”

I say this because the more I think about it, the less I want a new Blue Nation. I want to stay American with all the accoutrements of being America, but I’m willing to entertain the idea of some sort of struggle over which vision of America we’re going to live in — a white Christian ethnostate (Red) or a functioning democracy (Blue.)

Or maybe, if something happened in the future, maybe it won’t be a clear revolution / civil war dichotomy. Maybe it will fall somewhere in the middle of the spectrum.

What’s So Funny ‘Bout Peace, Love & Understanding?

by Shelt Garner

But for the fact that it would cause the world to descend into chaos, death and destruction, I would be prepared to call MAGA’s bluff on a National Divorce. In fact, I think,but for the prospect of civil war, revolution and WW3, that Blues should leave the Union in late 2024, early 2025 should it be clear that we’re going to become a white Christian ethnostate.

And, yet, I hate violence, so, lulz, I guess I have to root for Ron DeSantis being the Republican nominee so the risk of civil war goes down to pretty much zero but we still turn into a white Christian ethnostate.

In other words — we’re fucked.

No one is prepared for what is about to happen to the United States, one way or another. I suppose we might punt our systemic, structural problems down the road a little bit more, but things are coming to a head very, very soon. We just can’t escape the consequences of the browning of America and the economic rise of women.

And, of course, the “birth dearth” that is probably the real reason why everything is so fucked up in the United States at the moment — white people on a macro basis just can’t handle the transition to minority status and it’s eating away at them on a psychological basis.

I talk to my conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — and I’m aghast at how we can no longer even agree on what is “real” anymore. Red and Blue are receding away from each other on a macro basis at an alarming rate to the point that I just don’t see how we don’t become all Red (a white Christian ethnostate) or we don’t have a National Divorce that ends up burning the entire globe to the ground to a certain extent.

I just don’t know what to tell you. Buckle up. Things are going to get bumpy one way or another.

Imagining Trump’s Second Term

by Shelt Garner

I’m always wrong, but here are some general ideas about what Trump’s second term might look like. The key issue for me is — how close do we come to a civil war in late 2024, early 2025 after Trump wins the 2024 election? If it becomes clear that his incoming agenda is EXTREMELY RADICAL, then there is a greater-than-zero-sum chance that Blue States begin to leave the Union.

It would all happen very, very quickly. So fast that a lot of people would get caught up in the moment and wouldn’t even realize what was going on until the Second American Civil War was actually on-going.

But I just don’t think that’s going to happen. While I do think that the chance of a 2ACW is far greater if Trump becomes POTUS, in the end, I just don’t think that Blues have it in them. Too many of the people who would actually incite a National Divorce — namely, Twitter liberals — have the means, motive and opportunity to use their newly obtained second passports to flee the country and setup shop in the south of France.

So, what would a Second Trump Administration actually look like? It would be based on revenge and the final battle between MAGA and the “deep state.” But I think the real issue, the thing will transform America into a white Christian ethnostate will be a Constitutional Convention.

Within months — days? — of Trump being sworn in, he’s going to start ranting about how he is going to run again, even though the Constitutional prohibits it. At some point, he’s going to realize he can get his MAGA Enabling Acts by calling a Constitutional Convention. It goes rouge because it’s make up of people selected by state legislatures –which are majority MAGA — and away we go.

As all of this happening, a huge pipeline of wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flow out of the country until, of course, Trump — or whomever succeeds him — freaks out and makes it illegal to leave the country.

So, there you go.

Barring something I can’t predict — that’s America’s future.