by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Absolutely no one listens to me, so all of this is more about me struggling to figure out for myself how likely it is that the United States will have a Second Civil War. As I keep saying, I vacillate wildly between assuming that of course we’re going to have a civil war to thinking we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy.
The issue is — all the conditions are there for a civil war, the question is, will we finally reach the breaking point where one starts? And, that, at the moment is a known unknown. I just don’t know. It really could go either way. In the end, ultimately, the difference between civil war and a peaceful transition to autocracy probably will depend on some very specific tactical events that simply can’t be predicted.
Right now, it’s just as easy to imagine people just shrugging when Bannon’s “administrative coup” works in conjunction with Republicans playing the more obscure elements of the Constitution like a xylophone. And, honestly, as long as there’s no violence on their side, this particular coup will work. Remember, for Traditionalists, the issue was the violence associated with January 6th. If Peter Navarro’s peaceful coup had worked, then Traditionalists would have waved away my angry rants about a coup because it was don’t within the context of the “system working.”
So, I dunno. I will note that the United States is far less politically stable than you might think. I’m so busy assuming that 2024 – 2025 will be lit, I may be totally oblivious to some unexpected event happening between now and 2024. I mean, if, God forbid, Biden were to shuffle off this mortal coil, it’s very easy to imagine severe political instability if Speaker Trump impeached President Harris while she lacked a veep.
Trump is so fucking lazy and stupid, he could very well start a civil war early simply by ranting about how the Senate needs to convict President Harris so he can become POTUS again early. He could finally go transactional and then we would really be fucked. That would be a recipe for civil war.
And, yet, still, I don’t know. I think there’s a 50 / 50 chance at the moment of a civil war no later than 2025. The other option is autocracy. Though military junta is a potential factor as well. But everything is up in the air. I just don’t know.
For the time being, we’re all just going to have to wait until we’re a little closer to 2024 to have a better sense of which scenario is more viable. But, regardless, you need to gird your loin. Study up on the rise of Hitler and the beginnings of the first American Civil War. Knowledge of those two historical events may come in handy in the near future.
But the thing you absolutely need to do is figure out what you believe in the real world. What you’re willing to risk your life and scared honor for in the real world. Things are going to become rather chaotic, no matter which direction the country goes.
