It’s kind of surreal how nothing is being said in the mainstream center-Left media about the possibility of a shootout between Texas and Federal forces at the border, while that’s all the alternative center-Right press wants to talk about.
This is an example of how “vibes” may be the downfall of the country.
It is also an example of how should something crazy happen in Texas that the mainstream media is going to have egg on its face because it totally did not prepare people for what was about to happen.
But I get it — they probably did not want to unduly alarm people.
It could be that this is just going to be a standoff for a while and nothing will happen. That’s what I hope happens, at least.
Because history usually takes the most surreal, ironic path possible, I could see a near future — after some sort of civil war / revolution — where what we call the “NeverTrump” movement might be ascendant.
I say that because, in general, the United States is a center-Right nation with center-Left aspirations. As such, if political gravity violently snapped back into place because of a Blue victory in a second civil war / revolution, then there would probably be a lot of popularity for conservatives who opposed Trump.
Of course, in the more near term, I wonder what strange, surreal political situations we might find ourselves in if there was some sort of major confrontation on the border between Texas and the Feds. If the two sides started shooting at each other, then…oh boy.
It’s possible that there MIGHT be a secession crisis and a lot of MAGA Republicans would have to make a decision as to how much they really were in Trump’s pocket and how loyal they remained to the Union. All of this would only increase the power of the existing NeverTrump movement.
If — and this may be a huge if — IF Blues win any civil war / revolution that might happen because of ding-dong Trump, then for a little while, at least, NeverTrumpers might be the catbird’s seat politically.
I almost went to the January 6th Insurrection to cover it as something of a Citizen Journalist. But it was too cold and too far away. What’s more, even if I had gone, it’s highly unlikely I would have stayed long enough to actually “cover” it.
Flash forward and here we are, with the risk of another “incident” taking place, this time at the Texas border. It’s easy to overestimate what might happen this weekend because we did all get burned on January 6th.
What makes me nervous is MAGA state governments are primed and ready for some sort of Insurrection 2.0 in Texas. The MAGA insurrectionist propaganda that has been flowing for years now cues up a situation where all the conditions exist for political violence to happen.
And, what’s more, if there was some sort of shoot out, there would be a huge amount of pressure on both sides to prove a point. I have a growing sense that we’re more likely to see — at least at first — some sort of major insurrection than Texas leaving the Union over what’s going on.
That may happen if Something Big happens at the border, but not at first. But if a few people died because of a shoot out between the Feds and Texas then the USA would ring like a bell. The political consequences would be a quantum leap beyond January 6th.
If there was a major Insurrection or even Secessionist Crisis, it would do a great deal to help re-elect Joe Biden. And there is, of course, the whole issue of how many craven MAGA pols would actually leave their positions of power in Washington to help found a Trumplandia government.
Also, what would the new Red Government be called? Trumplandia? That’s what it SHOULD be called, but, lulz, what do I know.
Allegedly, tomorrow, Friday, January 26 is D-Day when it comes to Biden forcing Texas to put its money where its money is. And, what’s more, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is going to be there in person?
This is a Not Great, Bob, situation.
What if there’s a fucking shootout between the Texas National Guard and the Feds while Gov. Noem is chilling out, flirting with cute National Guard members who look like Corey Lewandowski.
Everything is so fucking dumb!
Hopefully, though, this is all going to be a lulz. Hopefully, I’m getting all worked up for no reason and it won’t be a huge clusterfuck.
I can remember the dread I felt in really early 2020 about how bad things might get with COVID19. I really, really overestimated how bad things would get, but I was spot-on that everything was about to change for a few months.
And, now, we have a potential insurrection 2.0 / civil war on our hands.
For the time being, I think this situation is just going to simmer. The late night talk show hosts haven’t weighed in, so that’s a good sign that my fears about an escalation happening because of a combination of political pressure, misjudgment and momentum haven’t been realized yet.
I think we’re probably more likely to just have a lot of smoke but no fire. I would be stunned if my absolute worst fear — a secession crisis — happened before Election Day. I have political faith in Biden. I think he’s wise enough to hold off on escalation for the time being — until the political pressure just gets too strong and he has to do something, anything to prove he’s listening.
It definitely will be interesting to see what happens next, though, I have to say. We live in strange, surreal times.
If This Is It and there’s going to be a force-on-force conflict between Texas and Federal forces, I pretty much gave MAGA cocksuckers too much credit when I was gaming out civil war scenarios the last few years.
Rather than it being Blues that left the Union — or started a revolution — it would be the far more obvious situation of MAGA pretty much doing exactly what the South did in first civil war.
One thing I don’t think we’ve not given enough thought to is the idea that maybe there will be some sort of half-assed civil war, that would be more of an insurrection than an actual civil war. In this scenario, states like Texas don’t officially leave the Union.
They just engaged in armed combat against the Federal government. Maybe, eventually, there might be some sort of secession crisis, but in the near future, it would be more fisticuffs than ballroom brawl.
But the issue remains — this whole situation could get a little crazy really quick. What’s interesting to me is what is actually happening is more along the lines of what NeverTrumper David French wrote in his book about potential civil war scenarios, rather than anything I wrote.
Though, I do think a few of my thoughts on how a civil war (or second insurrection) might break out were pretty prescient, if not spot on.
Well, here I was, thinking the DPRK might re-elect Biden by starting a war with the ROK. Now, I’m really beginning to worry that a combination of momentum and miscalculation might re-elect Biden because he’ll have a Secession Crisis on his hands sooner rather than later.
But I can’t predict the future. It’s possible that, lulz, this will just been as a sign that Something Bad is going to happen after Election Day, not the Main Event. I don’t know, I just don’t know.
All the conditions, however, are there for us all to wake up one day and there be a huge battle on the border between Texas Alliance forces and the Federal government, which, in turn would cause Red States to at least attempt to leave the Union.
And there would be malignant ding-dong Trump in the middle of it all, hoping to be the president of Trumplandia.
Absolutely no one listens to me, but I do find this latest post by Trump on Truth Social….alarming.
What makes this so alarming is Trump has done something he rarely does — go transactional. He is telling people what he wants. He’s pouring gasoline on what could be a very volatile situation by telling MAGA govenors what he wants them to do.
And the pressure on the other side will continue to grow for Biden to Federalize the Texas National Guard — and any other guard that stands in his way. Which, in turn, might cause every mouth breathing MAGA fucktard with an AR-15 to rush to the scene.
That, in turn, will cause something akin to Insurrection 2.0, if not a Second American Civil War.
Above is a map that is something of a proxy for what a Second American Civil War would look like. But such a map leaves a lot of questions unanswered. Among them being — if Deep South states decide to leave the Union because of the inclinations of their MAGA Republican Parties — what happens when African Americans object?
That is a “Not great, Bob,” type situation.
One way to re-elect Biden would have him have to go through a Secession Crisis. But I don’t *think* it will come to that, at least not until after Election Day — or way or another.
I think this is one of those situations where violence might happen — something akin to Insurrection 2.0 — because of a combination of momentum and musculations on both sides.
If there was some sort of stand off that came to blows between the two sides and Biden felt a lot of pressure to Federalize the Texas National Guard, then, well, we could very well be going to the show. Things could escalate at an alarming rate and, before you know it, there would be a mad rush between Texas and South Carolina to see who could call up a Secessionist convention first.
As far as I can tell, the late night talk show hosts haven’t commented on what’s going on between the Feds and Texas. That’s a good-to-great thing because when they do, that is going politically escalate things.
At the moment, all the talk of a “civil war” is just that — talk.
But once there is serious political pressure on Biden to do something to thump the nose of Texas….then things could escalate pretty quickly into a very dark future. I, for one, would prefer not to have a civil war anytime soon.
And I don’t think I have anything to worry about.
But keep a look out for Colbert or Meyers to address the situation between Texas and the Feds. Maybe they will never get around to it, which would be good.
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