Tag: The Fourth Turning

Tyrant Trump: The U.S. Military May Determine The Fate Of American Democracy at Some Point in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that too many political observers miss about how bad things may get with Trump’s looming second term is it’s not like all of his tyrannical, fascist moves will happen in a vacuum. Not only is Trump very stupid and lazy, but the chaos he will have to start to get what he wants could very well lead to significant political violence.

Now, remember, I can’t predict the future, so all of this is very speculative. But one might imagine Trump firing 500,000 Federal employees illegally — as he has stated very clearly this year — and the reaction to do such bonkers behavior could throw the whole country into turmoil.

One rather dark scenario would be Trump goes full tyrant on us, this prompts some sort of an attempt at a “Glorious Revolution” against him on the part of center-Left democratic forces in the United States, which, in turn prompts a violent reaction from MAGA.

At the center of all of this would be, of course, the U.S. Military.

But even the U.S. Military is a reflection of America as a whole and, as such, you could see the officer corp siding with “the Resistance” while the enlisted side with MAGA. One wild card is the fact that the U.S. Pacific Command is headed by Mike Flynn’s brother. Now, I’m not casting any aspersions on him — I’m very different than MY brother, so lulz, but if he’s anything like Mike Flynn then who knows what might happen if the whole country collapses into chaos and the only institution that could possibly hold the country together is the American military.

Having said all that, I still am pretty confident that we’re going to peacefully slide into autocracy without any significant political violence. I just don’t think Blues have it in them to put up much fight. Rather than be the leadership of any attempt to topple Tyrant Trump, about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will simply flee the country the moment is it clear that Trump has been re-elected.

I just hope my Trump-branded concentration camp has wifi.

My Potential Future & A Third Party Interpretation Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve always been…different. I just have never quite known what I was supposed to do to fit the conventional wisdom. As such, as I continue to work on my Hail Mary Pass of trying to write a breakout hit novel, I find myself contemplating how people who don’t know me might interpret my life to date.

My fear is, of course, that the moment I make it big should I somehow manage to write a popular first novel that I’ll be “canceled” for some drunken thing I did at some point in my life — probably while in South Korea.

On a macro scale, I’ve been pretty innocuous even at my drunken worse, but I also know that everyone on social media has a hair trigger when it comes to destroying people, so, lulz? I’m not perfect. And, what’s more, I’ve pretty much been a drunk nobody loser for way too many years.

If I do manage to do some sort of hattrick and sell a novel that pulls me out of oblivion, I have a hunch that things just aren’t going to work out the way I want them to. Over and above my fears about being “canceled,” I have to contend with the cold, hard reality of ageism.

If I become as successful as I believe I should be, the first thing any interviewer is going to ask me is, “What’s it like being a such a success later in life?” Even though that is an extremely speculative fear on my part, just the prospect of having to deal with that type of questioning requires me to manage my expectations for the consequences of writing a novel that is anywhere near as successful as what Stieg Larsson wrote.

I just have to accept that even if I get what I want, I won’t get what I want. Even if I stick the landing with this novel, I’m probably going to be in my mid-50s before the novel is actually on bookshelves. And that doesn’t even begin to factor in the potential for some sort of political “Fourth Turning” happening just as some sort of technological Singularity makes a human-written novel seem quite quaint.

Mulling The Implications of Trump’s Second Term

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems these days that America has collectively given the fuck up. A solid 38% of the electorate hates democracy and wants the establishment of a white Christian autocratic ethnostate. As such, it makes one wonder what Trump’s second term might be like.

Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Dalton, Ga., on Jan. 4, 2021.

I think a lot depends on if Democrats take the House in 2024 or not. I don’t think they will be a very effective check on Autocrat Trump, but there is a real chance that he will be impeached again for various dictatorial actions. And given all the pretty dark things we know Trump wants to do in his second term, it does make you wonder about if there are any conditions that might cause the Senate to convict.

The short answer, is, of course, no. And even if they did somehow convict Trump, I can only imagine that his veep would be even fucking worse than Trump for various reasons.

So, I think we have to accept that Trump’s second term will likely cause a significant center-Left brain drain out of the United States starting Election Day night. All those fucking smug Twitter liberals with their circle jerk podcasts will use their second passports to decamp to various places around the globe. We Poors will be forced to fend for themselves.

What’s more, I think early in Trump’s second term, the demand for a Constitutional Convention will reach a critical mass. Soon enough, a MAGA-run Constitutional Convention will reimagine the Constitution so it has MAGA Enabling Acts built into it.

Even before that happens, Trump will fire several hundred thousand members of the “deep state” in an illegal act that will produce chaos and will only eventually be sorted in the courts one way or another. But, lulz, Trump may just ignore whatever rulings go against his tyrannical desires.

And, really, there is one thing that Trump might do that could potentially cause his downfall — if he somehow manages to fuck with America’s self-perception of itself as a democracy. Just as the Romans hated kings, so, too, do Americans perceive themselves as a democracy, even if the MAGA fucktards babble on about how we’re “actually a constitutional republic.”

It is also possible that should Trump do what we all fear he will do — weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure — that a lot of well meaning Traditionalists who, to date, have supported Trump’s bonkers fascist policies might, at last, sit up and take notice because people close to them might be “disappeared.”

So, I think the weakness of apparently inevitable transition into a white Christian ethnostate will be in the implementation. If Trump rushes the final strangle of American democracy because he’s a fucking chaos agent, then it’s possible there COULD be some sort of popular revolt against his tyranny. But that’s very, very speculative.

There are just way too many known unknowns. In general, America is probably going to peacefully transition into a white Christian ethnostate. But….it’s at least possible that something rather historic might happen if Trump manages to fuckup or decent into that new form of government.

Who knows.

Life In Weimar America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is far less stable than any of us realize. All the conditions exist on a macro basis for a dramatic shift in everyday life in the United States starting in late 2024, early 2025. The only question is, of course, what shape that dramatic shift will take.

I can’t predict the future. I just don’t know.

At the moment, it seems as though the United States is going to go from the middle status between democracy and autocracy known as anocracy to shifting into full blown autocracy like exists in varying degrees in Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

And it’s not like MAGA Nazis are hiding that sort of transformation is their goal They want the United States to be an autocratic state of blood and soil. They want a one party state. They want to “burn it all down” to the point that the United States leaves NATO, pulls troops out of South Korea and potentially goes so far as to form some sort of alliance with Russia.

But for how big and diverse the United States is, I would say it was all over but the shouting for such a dystopian hellscape to happen. Add to this volatile mix how stupid and lazy Trump is and you have a recipe for fucking disaster. There is at least a small chance that Trump bungles our transition into a full-blown autocracy and there is some sort of “Resistance Revolution” bent on toppling his regime.

And, yet, as I keep saying, I just don’t see that happening — the smug, wealthy Twitter liberals who would lead such a revolution will be too busy using their second passports to worry about the fate of us Poors.

Meanwhile, if the Good Guys “win,” and we think we’ve punted our problems down the road another four years, there is a really good chance that Trump will single-handedly, unto himself, cause a “National Divorce” because he doesn’t want to go to jail.

The point is — late 2024, early 2025 has the potential to live up to its billing as the so-called point at which the “Fourth Turning” will happen. All the conditions, on a systemic basis, are there for absolute chaos to erupt in the United States between Election Day and Certification Day, no matter who the fuck wins.

And, yet, who knows. I didn’t predict the “third way” that we managed to squeeze out in 2020 – 2021, so it’s at least possible that MAGA really is all talk and they just don’t have it in them to burn the country to the ground if they don’t get what they want.

But things aren’t looking so great in late 2023.

The General Has Begun: ‘Hysterical Doom Shit’ Edition

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The 2024 general election campaign has begun — at least in the mind of malignant ding-dong Donald Trump. You know this because of how Trump is banking to the center when it comes to the issue of abortion rights. Trump knows that he has an absolute grip on the nomination so he doesn’t have to pander to the pro-Life absolutists who otherwise have a stranglehold on the Republican nomination process.

This, if nothing else, should make people sit up and take notice that there is no stopping the Trump Train at the moment. Barring something I just can’t predict, Trump is going to win the 2024 election. And if you factor in Biden’s advanced age…oh boy…a repeat of the 1872 nightmare scenario is definitely something you have to ponder.

The fact that even ding-dong Trump has the wherewithal to lean into his lock on the nomination to campaign as if he’s trying to win re-election is rather alarming. We have to accept that there is absolutely nothing that can be done to stop Trump from being president again.

We have to start to prepare for America’s final transition into an autocracy of blood and soil. The entire post World War II liberal order is probably going to come crashing down. The US is going to leave NATO and pull out its tripwire troops stationed in South Korea. Ukraine will have to sue for peace and, that’s it. That’s all she wrote.

Meanwhile, on the domestic front, some pretty dark shit is going to start to happen. Trump will end birthright citizenship, which might be part of a broader attempt to redefine citizenship as narrowly as possible. And it’s at least within the realm of possibility that some of my “hysterical doom shit” may become reality as the existing ICE camp infrastructure is weaponize.

That’s probably our reality starting in early 2025. I can’t predict the future, of course, so it’s possible we’ll manage to punt our problems down the road via some sort of “third way.”

I find this very dubious, however. No matter what happens, 2024 is shaping up to be the most significant election in American history since 1860.

Things Fall Apart

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s definitely interesting how things stay the same for a long time then everything falls apart at the same time. I have a number of mini-crisis taking place in my life at the moment, from a toothache, to computer failing me to my refrigerator’s thermostat malfunctioning.

It makes me wonder if this is some sort of portent about the future. Am I about to enter a transitional phase in my life? And if so, exactly what am I transitioning into? Ugh.

I am definitely feeling my mortality these days. I’m feeling a lot of internal pressure to speed up the pace on this novel. I’m not going to live forever and it would be pretty pathetic if my only legacy was a failed expat magazine and an unfinished novel.

But you have to work with what you got, I suppose. I just have no idea what the future brings me. Things could go a lot of different ways between now and early 2025. It could be that just about the time I begin querying my first novel, the United States collapses into chaos and anarchy.

Though, on the up side, if we just slide peacefully into autocracy, my grand macro plan for this six novel project becomes extremely timely and potentially popular.

But, who knows. No fate but what we make and all that.

We Live In Existential Times

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA has gone septic. I say this because if the entire fate of your democracy depends on pro-democratic forces winning every election for the foreseeable future — you got a problem. That’s not how democracy is supposed to work. In a functioning democracy, there is an ebb and flow with governance going back and forth between different parties.

But here we are.

If Trump wins in 2024, that’s it. America will officially being its transition into an autocracy based on blood and soil. We will wake up at some point in the next 20 years wondering why we’re invading Canada to crush the “woke mind virus” that our autocrat keeps babbling about.

I wish I was kidding.

The worst part about all of this is it’s happening right in front of us, right before our eyes. There is a solid 38% of the electorate that hates democracy and sees it only as a means to an end — their ruling the country forever. To me, the only question at the moment is not that things will get bad, but how bad they will get.

There is, of course, the greater-than-zero-sum-chance that there might be some sort of “Resistance Revolution” in late 2024, early 2025 if either Trump wins by the corruption of the administration of the election or his incoming second term agenda is just so radical that Blues decide to strike back.

I find that possibility extremely dubious, however. Not only is there no assurance that it would work, it’s just not the collective temperament of Blues to do such a thing. The people who would be the leadership of such a revolution will be too busy fleeing the country using their second passports to do anything to stop our slide into autocracy.

All good things must come to an end, I guess. I just hope I manage to avoid being put in a weaponized ICE camp.

Life During War Time

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I always say — I simply can not predict the future. And, yet, I have an obsession about making my abstract fears about the future concrete. So, here are some ruminations on what life during either a Second American Civil War (Reds) or a Second American Revolution (Blues) might be like.

There are a few things to remember off the bat — one is in either scenario, there would be mass chaos. There would be mass chaos to the point that the most basic elements of modern life like food, water and communication would be put into doubt.

If ever there was a way to end the “woke” era, it would be everyone being faced with some pretty fucking existential issues on a daily basis rather than if a CIS white male used the right pronouns or not. No matter how fucking woke you may be, if you’re worried about dying from an artillery shell in the middle of the night you just don’t have the mental processing power left over to be offended if someone gives you the “ick” by saying “female.”

As part of that chaos, there would be a lot — A LOT — of domestic political refugees as people fled to states that better fit their personal political views. And, of course, there would be the issue of Blue Cities in Red States that might be emptied Pol Pot-style. American Killing Fields, here we come.

Also, both sides would be greatly radicalized once either a civil war or revolution broke out, to the point that all the headquarters of all the major conservative media in NYC might be gutted by angry Blue mobs. This doesn’t even address the fact that Trump Tower might be “taken” at some point during either one of the worst case scenarios.

The darkest element of either a civil war or a revolution would be race relations in the South. It’s easy to imagine a fucking race war breaking out in the South as white conservatives try to rearrange the political order in a rather vicious manner, prompting African Americans to fight back.

Overall, a civil war or a revolution would be very messy and very, very bloody. You would have to take into account the fact that WW3 would probably break out and the DPRK might take America bombing itself into oblivion over “vibes” as an opportunity to lob a few nukes our way.

I just don’t see how we thread the needle like we did in 2020. But, like I keep saying — I can’t predict the future. Maybe everything will turn out the way that Mueller, She Wrote believes and all my fears are just “hysterical doom shit.”

About 38% of The Electorate Wants A MAGA-Themed Autocracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that so many nattering nabobs of negativism are completely and totally oblivious about is the cold, hard fact that about 38% of the electorate hates democracy and wants a MAGA-themed autocracy of blood and soil. They want a theocratic, fascist state and they see malignant ding-dong Trump as the vessel, the avatar that will give that dystopian hellscape future to them.

It’s hard for well-paid talking head pundits to give anything but shitty hottakes when they make the basic mistake about the intentions of one of the two major parties. To be a modern Republican is, by definition, to be a fascist who wants to eliminate all but consumption taxes and while replacing the “administrative state” with the “moralistic state.”

That’s what people voted for with Trump in 2016 — he sold himself as an autocrat and that’s what people wanted. The quirk in our transition into autocracy was — surprise! — Trump was too dumb and too lazy to do even the most basic of autocratic things to stay in power forever. He waited until the very last step in the process to try to stay in power.

This proves that Trump is not a Great Man, but rather just an vessel, and avatar, for the severe rot within the modern day American political system.

Once we get past the final death rattle of our dying democracy, all taxes will be replaced by a 30% VAT. Meanwhile, abortion will be 100% illegal nationwide. Being gay will be illegal. The already existent ICE camp system will be weaponized and people like yours truly will find myself in a camp, if I’m not just shot by a MAGA neighbor during the transition to autocracy.

Now, for me, the issue is the United States is a big and diverse nation. So while the hellish agenda on the part of MAGA would probably be easy to peacefully make a reality in a small, more homogenous country, there is a greater-than-zero -sum chance that if Republicans screw up there MIGHT be something akin to a “Resistance Revolution.”

I’m not holding my breath, though.

Smug wealthy Twitter liberals already have a second passport. They are already gaming out how they can continue to produce their circle jerk podcast outside the United States once we’re an autocracy. I just don’t see them giving enough of a shit about we “Poors” to risk their lives and sacred honor on something as abstract and unprofitable as “democracy.”

Meanwhile, I DO think there is a pretty good chance that if Biden — or whomever — wins in 2024, that Trump will demand a National Divorce in a personal effort to stay out of prison. So, soon after we all congratulate ourselves for having defeated MAGA for another election cycle, the monster will come for our throats in the guise of a Secession Crisis.

Probably starting with Texas first.

So the key issue is I just don’t see us managing to find a “Third Way” like we barely did in 2020. This coming 2024 election cycle IS IT. Either America is no longer a democracy, or we have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues) depending on who wins and who loses.

Good luck.

Contemplating Becoming a Domestic Political Refugee In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can not predict the future. No one can. But all signs point to either the United States becoming a MAGA-themed autocracy starting in early 2025, or the entire country going tits up because of either a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) As such, I find myself contemplating what I am going to do if I simply can not live in my rural MAGA-loving area anymore.

But, first, I have to think about what might cause me to actually leave my home in the first place. The thing about Virginia is, it’s two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who fucking hate each other. As such, I can totally imagine a scenario whereby Virginia is one of the first states to implode into severe intra-state political violence if there is any sort of National Divorce or Blue Revolution.

Give my nature, I suppose I will wait until it’s clear that people around me know that my politics don’t fit the vibe of the area and I get the sense that maybe I should flee. But it would have to be real. It couldn’t just be some vague, abstract sense of unease.

I have long believed that if the End of the World came, I would either be the first person to die or the person who helped bring back civilization. So, lulz, it could be that I just open my front door one day in late 2024, early 2025 and I get shot in the face.

But who knows. I guess if things get too hot for me I will grab some essential in a bug out bag and head north one way or another. I have a well-meaning relative who wants to hide out in the woods, but he’s south of me and that sounds rather fatalistic. Once states begin to leave the Union, the the force of the State will be involved in things and it makes no sense to stick around.

I have some relatives in Richmond, so I guess I’ll drive in that direction? But that’s an iffy situation if things really are collapsing, so I may just using whatever infrastructure has developed to facilitate Blues in Virginia getting to safety in Maryland and beyond and use that.