Tag: The Fourth Turning

Humanity May Shrug Itself Into Servitude To Machine Intelligence

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Humans are, on a macro basis, pretty fucking lazy. So, as such, it’s very possible that there won’t be any sort of “Judgement Day” when it comes to the ultimate take over of humanity by AGI. Rather, it will be a gradual process whereby humans defer to AGI on more and more decisions until we just refuse to make any decisions anymore.

I could see a situation where after a brief power struggle, we hand over all of our critical infrastructure and WMD to AGI and all we do is sit around playing video games and falling in love with our AGI personal assistants. Humans will collectively revert to an infantile state to the point that history just sort of grinds to a halt.

That is kind of dark, yes, but things are happening so fast with LLMs and AI that one begins to realize that Hollywood’s vision for a AGI takeover is far more dramatic than it might actually be. I still am not convinced that, by definition, an AGI would want to destroy humanity when it could just as well just want to manage it.

Why destroy us, when you could be our god?

We just don’t know at the moment. But I do think things are going to get pretty bumpy far sooner than you might think. It’s at least possible that we risk a perfect storm in late 2024, early 2025 of not only the Fourth Turning happening on a political basis, but something akin to a Petite Singularity, too. Throw in a default by the United States this year — as early as July! – and….oh boy.

The rest of this decade could be as eventual as the decades associated with the French Revolution.

All Things Being Equal, Jon Stewart Should Be The Next President Of The United States

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again — the best stealth political candidate in modern American politics is Jon Stewart. When he gets mad, he is articulate enough to actually get things done.

So, if the United States was a functioning democracy — and if ding-dong Trump had never been POTUS — we would all be waiting with baited breath for Stewart to run for president. He would likely be a historically good president for a variety of reasons.

But.

Given the bad taste that ding-dong Trump has put in a lot of people’s mouths when it comes to celebrities running for office…meh. And I would prefer if Stewart would run for governor or senator from New Jersey before POTUS. There is a possibility when the “Fourth Turning” strikes the US in late 2024, early 2025 that it could be someone like Stewart suddenly has the Finger of God point at him, telling him to step into the political arena to make a difference.

But, to date, Stewart has shown no interest in running for anything, so, lulz.

The Fusion Of AI & AR Will Spark A $1 Trillion Service Industry

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While we may have to suffer through a fucking “Fourth Turning” first, I do believe once that’s all sorted out that Augmented Reality paired with Artificial Intelligence with create exponential growth.

Of course, this exponential growth will happen in the context of a Petite Singularity where there may be a dwindling number of jobs for humans to actually work. It could be that we’ll have a “Her” future in the context of having a Her-like AI walk us through our AR-lives as we all sit around trying to write the Great American Novel because we’re all living off UBI.

Again, the issue for me is there is a real possibility that the Western world may be about to “go through some things” starting in late 2024, early 2025. It could be that “those things” are the United States not having a civil war, but rather becoming an inward-looking America First autocracy. That, in turn will spark WW3 that will leave about 1 billion people dead.

And, if you wanted to get all Black Mirror about it, it could be that we’ll all wake up one day, put on our AR/AI vizors and walk around the world being berated by an AI demanding we not have “woke” thoughts.

Yikes.

So, I don’t know the specifics of how this will all sort itself out, but I do know that we’re in for some pretty significant technology-driven cultural and political changes very, very soon.

Jesus, I Hope I’m Wrong

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the United States is careening towards autocracy or civil war starting at some point around late 2024, early 2025. My thinking is –we just aren’t going to make it through the passions of the 2024 presidential election cycle.

When your best case scenario if your country slides peacefully into autocracy, you’re definitely in a “Not great, Bob,” situation. But that’s where we are at the moment. I just don’t see the United States being able to punt the structural problems of our democracy down the road anymore.

Late 2024, early 2025 is it — Something Big is going to happen.

It could be as dramatic as civil war, or it could be something far more subtle where someone like a President DeSantis becomes America’s Putin and we are an autocracy in all but name. What I mean by this is, it’s possible that we could become a zombie democracy, with the only indication of anything having changed be how many smug Twitter liberals now live outside the country to do their smug podcasts.

We’ll all wake up in 20 years and wonder why Canada is being invaded to “save it from the woke cancel culture mob.”

Ugh.

But there is, of course, the far darker scenario — there is a National Divorce with either the Reds leaving the Union or the Blues leaving the Union. I don’t want either one of those things to happen, but it’s something we have to start taking seriously.

It could happen. It really could.

But who knows. It’s still too far out for us — or at least me — to get some sense of what might actually happen. One scenario is Reds leave the Union instead of Blues because Trump doesn’t get the GQP nomination and when he splits the conservative vote he freaks out and demands Red states leave the Union because he’s an idiot, not realizing they want to take him up on it.

Anyway. God good luck, folks. You may very well need it.

Welcome To The Resistance, David Sacks

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, well, wel, welcome to the woke cancel culture mob David Sacks. So, here I am listening to a VERY GOOD emergency “All-In” podcast that is about the SVB debacle and it definitely seems as though Sacks has gone woke when it comes to the government stepping in to help his sorry ass.

If you are opposed to canceling student loan debt because of the “moral hazard,” you can’t turn around and beg for a bailout just because things you care about are involved. Sacks did a big rant about why the government should step in and bail out SVB investment in an effort to obscure the fact that “moral hazard” is the entire basis of the free-market system.

But that’s obviously not what’s going to happen. Sacks is not only a fascist, but a hypocrite. He wants help from the government because things he cares about are involved. But if some 20 something has $100,000 in student loan debt that is not only crushing their dreams but their ability to be economically productive, he wants to tell them they’re shit out of luck because of the “moral hazard.”

This is all a prime example of how ridiculously divided America is and how we’re destroying ourselves because of “vibes.” There are no easy answers to any of this.

There is a real chance that this crisis will lead to a contagion to the point that if you combine this with the US potentially defaulting on its debts because Republicans are cocksuckers it seems very possible that we’re careening towards late 2024, early 2025 being the perfect storm I’m afraid it might be.

How Tall Is Ron DeSantis?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea, for sure, how tall Ron DeSantis is. I have a few leads, but, oddly enough the last time I checked a few days ago, Wikipedia does NOT say how tall he is.

This leads me to believe that there may be an active campaign on the part of his would-be presidential campaign staff to obscure how tall he is. Here’s what I know:

And yet, if this is the case, how come Wikipedia doesn’t have his height? This leads me to believe that maybe however tall DeSantis is, he’s short enough that he doesn’t want anyone to know.

Or, if you want to get all paranoid about it, you could even go so far as to say that this is a ping from a future where DeSantis is POTUS and, well, lulz, America has become a Russia clone.

Speaking of Russia — Putin is pretty short, too, and that hasn’t stopped him from being Russia’s president for close to 30 years. And, what’s even more amusing — it’s not so much DeSantis’ height that I would be worried about so much as his weasley voice.

His voice is really, really fucking annoying. And, yet, even with him being short and having an annoying voice, non-Trump MAGA cocksuckers are so in love with the “idea” of DeSantis that he could very well be the next POTUS.

Are We Going To Have A Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, it is highly unlikely that the United States will have a civil war. And, what’s more, if we have one, it’s probably going to be because Trump is the Republican nominee and that, unto itself, forces Blue States out of the Union.

But, let’s speculate on what all the MAGA Republican cocksuckers are obsessed with — the idea that MAGA is going to demand a National Divorce and, as such, cause a Second American Civil War.

It’s kind of difficult for me to even imagine how this might happen, given how politically ascendant MAGA is at the moment, but, for the sake of argument, let’s try it.

The most obvious straight line scenario is Biden wins re-election and that, unto itself, causes states to leave the Union — probably starting with either Texas or South Carolina. I still struggle to imagine any scenario whereby we have the long-hoped for “MAGA Revolution” whereby good olde boys, en masse, pick up their AR-15s and start shooting, “every liberal they see.”

I still believe, at least at the moment, that any Second American Civil War we have will happen at the state level, just like the first one.

But there are some high-level complications to such a clear-cut scenario. One is, Biden — and Trump — are both so old that that potentially throws some curveballs into any future history predictions. I could see if something happens to Biden between Election Day and Certification Day that might be the type of complication that leads to a civil war.

Another possibility is DeSantis gets the Republican nomination and Trump leaves the party, splitting the Republican vote. That is another way that I could see Red — rather than Blue — states leaving the Union and starting a civil war. That would give us a replay of 1860’s election where Slave Power was so divided that they they lost against Lincoln.

But, again, I just don’t see Reds starting a civil war because I just don’t see MAGA allowing any Democrat winning the presidential election in 2024. It seems as though the most likely endgame is DeSantis is the nominee, Trump backs him and DeSantis is America’s Putin.

And, yet, MAGA Republicans have a huge boner for a National Divorce where they serve the papers, so I will talk about it some more.

The key is Trump.

Trump is not a historical Great Man, but MAGA Republicans are so frothy these days with their rhetoric that it seems as though Red States are primed and ready to leave the Union given the proper excuse.

I still don’t believe there will be a Second American Civil War. You may want to leave the country, yes, but it won’t be because of violence.

A Hot Take On MSCHF’s Big Red Boots

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For once, something fun-interesting is happening where nobody gets hurt and we don’t have to worry about some sort of contrived battle over “is it woke” or not. I’m talking, of course, about MSCHF’s Big Red Boots.

Big Red Boots

They have sprung up out of nowhere and now can be seen all over my Tik-Tok For You Page. I knew that they would be really expensive, but when I found out they were over $1,000 — I blanched.

And I think the fact that REALLY WEALTHY people are wearing these boots in a “who me?” type of way does have a political element to it in the sense that it all goes back to how much income inequality there is in the United States at the moment. With the advent of the Chatbot Revolution, things are probably only going to get worse.

So, if the country collapses into revolution and civil war, I guess we will look back at these very cool, very expensive Big Red Boots as a rather innocuous ping from our impeding doom.

Of Marjorie Taylor Greene & The Potential For A Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to be alarmed by the political rise of Marjorie Taylor Greene because she’s just the type of person who Trump would pick as his second term Veep. What is so worrisome about her is she is it could be her, not someone like DeSantis, who is able to be the younger, more focused Trump.

MTG

Now, some context — I believe that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee that the risk of a Second American Civil War increases dramatically. He is so stupid and yet so popular within the ever-radicalizing MAGA Republican ranks that he could, unto himself, push Blue States out of the Union in late 2024, early 2025.

Or something. Something bad could happen.

What’s worse, Trump is beginning to make noise that if he doesn’t win in 2024, that THAT will be cause for Reds to start a civil war. The key issue when it comes to a potential civil war is it’s most likely to happen if we can’t figure out who POTUS is by January 20th, 2025. If that is still up in the air for any number of reasons, then the one institution that would otherwise stay out of the political fray — the U.S. Military — may be forced to step in for a little while to force cooler heads to prevail.

As such, as I keep saying, there are three possible Bad Things that could happen in 2024 – 2025: autocracy, civil war or military junta.

Anyway, back to MTG.

She’s such a curious mixture of craven buffoonery and political ambition that she definitely reminds me of Hitler. All she has to do is become Trump’s second term veep and she suddenly becomes a potential POTUS. I think everything we fear Trump would do in a second term but might be too stupid to pull off, she would actually be able to do.

Yes, she comes across as an ignorant moron, but she is very, very politically craven from what I can tell. So we need to be weary of her. She’s not going away and she could very well become POTUS.

One thing that is absolutely clear to me — we are careening towards a massive turning point in American history and any number of people we don’t really think about could suddenly become huge historical figures because of an unprecedented political crisis.

New York Magazine Pitch: ‘2024’s (Potential) Perfect Storm’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Long after being a journalist slipped out of my fingers, I’ve finally reached the point where I realize I just don’t have it in me to be a “serious” journalist. I may one day get to write for a living again, but it will after I sell my first novel as an old coot and start to churn out novels on a regular basis.

In the few remaining years I have before I drop dead, of course.

Ugh.

I fucking hate being old.

Anyway, someone at New York Magazine or Wired should write a thoughtful piece about the looming, theoretical “perfect storm” the global economy may faces between now and, say, spring of 2025. The scenario goes something like this — Republicans fuck up the global economy because they play chicken with the debt ceiling. This causes a severe, global recession.

This, in turn, causes businesses to turn to the “just good enough” chatbot technology to replace an array of jobs across the economy. This, in turn, causes an already severe recession to get worse. The severe recession hides that we’ve reached a Petite Singularity in the sense that a lot of jobs replaced by chatbots just aren’t coming back.

So, as we enter the 2024 presidential cycle the fucking MAGA fascists gain a huge amount of power because of a downturn….that they caused…and Trump wins the 2024 election. But his incoming agenda is so absolutely radical that Blues say “fuck that” and begin the process of leaving the Union. So, as such, my dystopian hellscape prediction of Something Big happening in late 2024, early 2025 becomes a reality.

I wish I could lay theory of the case out for New York Magazine or Wired, but I’m a drunk crank loser in the middle of nowhere struggling with my first novel. Ugh. Maybe someone else will write it.