Red October: A New World Order


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things have progressed to the point in the United States where it’s out of the control of the individual to do anything about it for the time being. All the conditions exist for the United States to either have a civil war, turn into an autocracy or there be a military junta established.

No amount of ranting on Twitter about how crazy the MAGA New Right seems is going to make any difference. The stage is set for something pretty dramatic to happen no later than about January 2025.

Something’s gotta give.

One of the two major parties in the United States is now radically anti-democratic and beholden to a rancid demagogy who is just as likely to force us into an avoidable civil war as he is to guide us peacefully into autocracy. If we do peacefully turn into an autocracy, it won’t be Trump, but his hand-picked successor who has the gumption to do the final consolidation of power through a Constitutional Convention. (Not that I don’t think Trump won’t start ranting about the need for that at any moment.)

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

So, at the moment, I would say we have a 50 / 50 chance of having a civil war in the United States. It would probably start in late 2024 when Blue States leave the Union after Steve K. Bannon’s administrative coup on the local level makes it clear that Democrats will never be allowed to become president again.

Steve K. Bannon

There will be a lot of talk that Republicans will let Blue States leave peacefully, but, lulz, that will never happen and we have a civil war. A very costly, blood and tragic civil war that directly causes World War 3 and the death of billions as a result of a series of limited nuclear exchanges around the globe.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Or, as I keep saying, Blue States because of a lack of vision and leadership simply don’t have it in them to challenge our descent into autocracy and we gradually become a Russia clone on a political level. This, in turn, will cause a massive outflux of center-Left people out of the country. America will grow poorer and more inward looking to the point that China’s gradual ascent across the globe will happen without anyone firing a shot.

There is, of course, the other option of some sort of military junta, but that’s the least likely of the dystopian options I have in mind. It’s possible on paper, yes, but it’s far more likely that not even the U.S. Military will survive if we have a civil war and one of the first steps in any civil war would be a general balkanization of the country into warring camps.

Then WMD gets introduced as does a race war in the Deep South and after a few years of bombing ourselves into the Stone Age, we grow tired enough that we start thinking about laying down our arms and re-uniting. Or not, it could just be that we’d be fucked from here on out and the United States will be nothing more than an much larger Afghanistan that speaks English.

I guess the point of all of this is — you have to start thinking existentially. Call it The Fourth Turning, or whatever you like. But this is it. We’re careening towards the end of the United States — and, to some extent, the end of the world — as we know it.

Get a passport. Start thinking about what you’re willing to risk your life for in the real world. No one is going to save us. We’re going to have to save ourselves.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: Trump Suggesting The MAGA New Right May Not Vote Is A Clear & Present Danger To The United States


by Ender

Occasionally, the hot takes within my center-Left, anti-MAGA New Right echo chamber are so bad, so ill conceived that I get really angry. A prime example of this recently is all the laugher about Trump telling the MAGA New Right faithful “not to vote” if the Republican Establishment doesn’t “address” his Big Lie about the 2020 election.

Two reasons exist for this being very, very dangerous.

The first reason is, well, Trump is giving the Republican Establishment its marching orders for 2022 and 2024. If they don’t toe the line, he’s threatening them with destruction. Hence, how quiet they are about his threats on the matter. And, really, the case could be made that this is part of Steve Bannon’s broader efforts at an administrative coup going forward.

Steve K. Bannon

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

But the second, darker reason is Trump is dangling the prospect of the MAGA New Right no longer participating in the democratic process en mass. If they don’t feel as though they have a vested interest in democracy — if they just stop voting — then all the glad handing and backslapping that people like Rachel Maddow will do when Democrats start to win will be interrupted rather dramatically.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

You think we have it bad now, just wait until a huge swath of deranged MAGA New Right cocksuckers grow radicalized and see violence as their only option to get what they want in the country. That would not be cool.

I just don’t think a lot of liberal “thinkers” are taking the very dangerous future we face seriously enough. Something’s gotta give. We either turn into an autocracy, have a civil war or the military steps in and we have some sort of military junta.

But the current situation is just not stable. It can only last so long. The United States is running on fumes.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: Be Careful What You Wish For, Mr. Bannon, You Just Might Get It


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Steve Bannon is staging a slow-moving administrative coup in the United States in broad daylight and, at the moment, nothing is happening in response. So, it’s very easy to imagine Bannon actually pulling it off — corrupting the administration of elections on the local level to the point that it becomes very clear to the average American that the whole system is rigged.

Steve K. Bannon

And that, my gentle reader, will be the moment of truth.

The natural inclination of the liberal media will be to calm everyone down. As a part of the Establishment, they have a vested interest in making sure the average person doesn’t freak the fuck out and burn everything to the ground in a rage.

In a functioning democracy, this is a good thing because it keeps people living their lives and only really thinking about politics when they have to. But, sadly, the centrifugal forces at work on the United States’ political system have reached a critical point — we’ve crossed the event horizon of autocracy, if you will.

So, should Bannon get what he wants, what will be the reaction.

My gut reaction is…I don’t know. It could go either way. It’s very possible that because of how ineffectual the center-Left is on a systemic basis, that such an administrative coup will be met with a collective shrug. There will be long, angry Twitter threads from the usual suspect Twitter liberals. Pod Save America, Pod Save The World and Deep State Radio would have enraged conversations about how the United States is no longer a democracy.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

But, lulz, the average person won’t even notice — at first — that things have changed.

People will gradually stop voting. A MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention will be held. And, soon enough, the United States and Russia will become autocratic brothers in arms. It will be like the end of Animal Farm — we will look back and forth between the United States and Russia and we won’t be able to see any difference.

That’s one option.

The other option is we have a civil war that causes WW3 and billions die while the United States sorts out which vision of America has the better military. If we go down this path, then the “Fourth Turning” might happen not in 2025, but in 2023.

I still just can’t game out which one of these two options the United States will pick. Usually, if history is any guide, the Great Moments of History are very reliant on the tactical. Just look at the First Civil War itself — the case could be made that modern America exists because of some pretty specific, tactical events that took place at just the right time.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

So, too, if there was a Second Civil War and things grew existential, the outcome of any such conflagration could be determined by things that would be impossible to predict at the moment.

All I know is, Bannon is setting up a very, very destabilizing situation by trying to pull a fast one on us. If he succeeds in 2022 with his administrative coup and nothing happens, then, well, the likelihood of a civil war grows far less. It will be clear by that point that the United States is going to slip peacefully into autocracy.

It will be in the 2023-2025 timeframe when there will begin a massive migration of center-Left Americans to other parts of the globe. Hollywood might relocate to, say Perth. Europe might see a huge influx of liberal-progressive expats not seen since The Lost Generation.

Who knows?

Or, to put it another way — I suggest you be grateful for this last year of democracy in America. No matter what, the death spiral that will either lead to autocracy or civil war will probably begin the moment we start to get results in Election Night 2022.

A few days after that, Trump will announce for 2024 and things will grow very, very unstable. Good luck. You’re going to need it.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: Stop Laughing At The MAGA New Right



by Ender

Only because of a specific set of circumstances are we not in Trump’s second term. The combination of COVID, Biden and Trump being astonishingly lazy and stupid combined to tip the hand of fate. And, yet, the next year could likely be the last few months of the traditional America that we’ve come to assume we’d always live in.

Steve K. Bannon

It’s easy to imagine that Steve Bannon’s plot at an “administrative coup” is successful in 2022 and when we lulz it, he only grows more powerful and more brazen in the years leading up to 2024. I don’t think people really appricate how dire things are becoming.

The center-Left just is not prepared for what is going to happen between now and January 2025. Trump’s “Big Lie” is now the heart and soul of the Republican Party on a systemic basis and, honestly, the only thing stopped us from peacefully becoming a Russia clone is the momentum within the MAGA New Right to turn to violence simply out of bloodthirsty arrogance.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

It’s also easy to imagine at some point in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe that everything is in place for us to slip peacefully into autocracy and Trump just by being himself causes a civil war. One thing we have to begin to think about is Trump could be, in his own way a “reverse Yeltsin” in the sense that both men specialized in destroying things but with the exact opposite objectives.

Yeltsin wanted to bring freedom to Russia, Trump wants to bring autocracy to the United States. So, it’s possible that for all my handwringing about the possibility of a civil war in the United States, in the end, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy, just as the Soviet Union peacefully ceased to exist.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

But there is one thing I can not stress enough: stop laughing at the MAGA New Right. They just aren’t funny anymore. We’re dealing with a lingering existential crisis that is going to come to a head one way or another. We’re still too far out for me to figure out if it’s going to be autocracy, civil war or military junta.

Yet, what I do know is the current status quo is so unstable that something pretty dramatic is going to happen. Again — all the conditions exist for us to slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. The average American is so complacent that if Bannon gets what he wants, the liberal media will tell everyone that “the system worked” and it’s just a fact of life now that one, the administration of elections is corrupt and two, even if Democrats get past that obstacle, the only way they can gain the presidency is if they also control Congress.

Then comes the MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention. In about 20 years, we’ll wake up and realize an entire generation of Americans has only known DeSantis (or whomever) as president. We’ll also learn that the Trump family is now one of the wealthiest in the world, rivaling Putin. We’ll hear isolated reports of well known anti-MAGA people mysteriously dying, but strangely nothing will ever come of it.

All of our media will avoid talking about politics and News Corp will own The New York Times AND CNN. Who knows, MSNBC might be sold off and merged with OANN or NewsMax at some cut rate price. We’ll also here the occasional story from the BBC about the burgeoning ICE camps with political prisoners, but most people who are Good Americans won’t really care or notice.

That is, of course, until they get drunk in a bar one night and rant about how much President Flynn sucks. They vanish within a few days.

The reason why this agitates me so much is this dystopian scenario of an American future under autocracy is not an abstract to me. I’ve enjoyed the luxury of being a loud mouth kook in a free nation my entire life. I’m just not someone who could even exist in a country like Russia.

So, I feel, in a very concrete way, that if we do slip peacefully into autocracy that my life is in danger.

The main reason why I don’t think the United States will have a Second Civil War is how weak anti-MAGA forces are in real terms. Or, put another way, if there is some sort of civil war in the United States around the time I predict it may happen, a lot of heroes are going to burst onto the scene in ways none of us — least of all me — can predict.

And, remember, if we did have a second civil war, it would not happen in a vacuum. The entire world would go up in flames at the same time. Any number of regional wars would flare up — some of them resulting in limited nuclear exchanges — and the world we woke up to on the other end of the conflict would be greatly reshaped.

But again, I just don’t know which choice we’re going to make. At the moment, you can make the case for either autocracy or civil war. You can even make the case for some sort of military junta.

In a sense, this option makes a lot more sense than either autocracy or civil war because it could be just the temporary fix to our problems. The scenario I’m thinking of is rather than what the Reds want, which is autocracy or what the Blues might want out of desperation, which is civil war, we would simply turn the reigns of power over to the military.

Once we did that, it’s easy to imagine the whole point of the exercise would be a convening of a Constitutional Convention that would address the concerns of both sides. This would be a way to take the existential issues of 2025 out of the hands of our undead politics and turn it over to a hopefully objective existential body that would help us become a more perfect Union.

There, unfortunately, so many problems with this on-paper ideal solution that it’s highly unlikely it would happen. What’s more likely to happen is either we slip peacefully into a MAGA New Right autocracy or Blue States grow so enraged that they leave the Union and all hell breaks loose.

The biggest problem is, of course, the U.S. Military on a systemic basis will do everything in its power to avoid this very solution, even to the point that the whole country collapses into anarchy. This would happen when the military simply refuses to pick a side when Trump fucks everything up like he always does and we just don’t know who the “real” POTUS is and Blue and Red States go for each others throats.

Another problem might be, that the not even the military will be able to withstand the forces tearing the country apart and the largely MAGA enlisted men pick the opposite side as the brass. So, instead of a unified military being able to step in for a few crucial months, everything collapses in on itself and we bomb ourselves into oblivion using illicitly seized caches of WMD.

Yet, all I can tell you is something’s gotta give.

The moment Congress flips and Republicans are in control of Congress again, things are going to get very dark and even more unstable. You really need to enjoy these last few months of peace and quiet, of traditional America, while you can.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: America’s Endgame Enigma


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The general unease in the United States right now comes from there being no obvious endgame to what’s going on. On one hand, it seems clear that the country is going to peacefully slip into autocratic managed democracy when Republicans brazenly steal first the 2022 mid-terms and then the 2024 presidential election. Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

On paper, this will all happen peacefully and in the open. The center-Left lacks the leadership and the backbone to do anything about it. Trump becomes president, he picks a successor and at some point in the 2025 -2029 timeframe, we have a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention and that will be that. President Flynn or DeSantis or whomever will become effectively president for life and 20 years from now we’ll be talking about Generation Flynn (or whomever.)

Under this scenario, we’ll avoid the any conflict with a rising China because the United States will recede to Fortress America at just about the same time. Millions of center-Left people will flee the country and the United States will begin a downward spiral into a “shit hole country.” Those who remain who don’t kowtow to the autocrat will be “re-educated,” killed or tortured into submission.

That, at the moment, seems like the logical endgame to what’s going on. But for one thing.

Donald Trump.

Or, to put it more broadly, how the MAGA New Right has developed enough bloodlust that they may very well bungle what should be a historical gimmie and lose everything because they want to murder people like me for political reasons.

In this other endgame, because of Trump saying the quiet part out loud, when we have the Certification Crisis of 2024 – 2025, instead of the MAGA New Right letting history run its course, they intentionally push us into civil war just because they have come to glorify political violence for the sake of political violence. Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

This would be an epic self-own on the part of the MAGA New Right because they pretty much have a clear shot at turning the United States into a Russian clone without firing a shot. They would lose that if they forced the issue and made desperate Blue States organize their defense not in halls of Congress, but on the field of battle.

In general, I’m of the opinion that Blue States would win a Second Civil War, even though the gratuitous use of sized WMD would make such a victory extremely costly. Even if Blue States won a Second Civil War, the whole world would be remade while we fought it.

WW3 would happen around the world as regional wars broke out all at the same time. Billions would die after a number of limited nuclear exchanges. So, one could imagine the post-Second American Civil War Era being a lot like what happened after WW2.

But that’s only if the Blue States win. And, this time, the entire globe would be recovering from an epic clusterfuck of our own making. If you wanted to be hopeful, you could say just like after WW2, such a horrible global experience would cause humanity to work collectively to solve existential issues like global climate change.

Yet, I’m doubtful.

A Second American Civil War would be extremely high risk, high reward, to the point that maybe slipping peacefully into autocracy isn’t all that bad after all. But the fact remains — I honestly don’t know which one of those two paths we’re going to go down. There is the third option of some sort of temporary military junta, but that’s the least likely of the three scenarios.

Anyway, get a passport. Start thinking existentially on a personal basis. You probably have a few years. Use them to prepare.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Nothing is going to change. Nothing will be reformed. There will be no “boom” that fixes our lingering existential problems. Things are only going to get worse. TrumpWorld is above the law on a political basis and always will be. The only way we will get any accountability is if, in fact, we do have a civil war and the Blue States win. Otherwise, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that.

The Blue Case for A Second Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, there is no case — woke or otherwise — for a Second Civil War. But, given that the MAGA New Right definitely has grown politically bloodthirsty enough to want one, it’s something we on the liberal-progressive side have to begin to take seriously.

The thing about a civil war is, the MAGA New Right is so much more prepared than anti-MAGA forces are, that the moment we cross that particular Rubicon, things are going to grow very surreal, very quick. The average American who isn’t Very Online doesn’t even realize how dire America’s political straits are other than bonkers screaming at their local school board meeting.

So, should my fears about the 2024 – 2025 timeframe tragically come true, a lot of people are going to be left flat footed. When suddenly it becomes existential if you are Blue or Red on a personal, individual basis, there’s going to mass chaos as people flee their homes for a Blue or Red state that better fits their politics. And it’s going to happen very, very quickly — the event will likely be counted in days, not weeks or months.

The thing about an actual hot civil war in the United States is would be high risk, high reward for the center-Left. Just like with the First Civil War, if the center-Left can just get its act together, we might pass modern equivalent of the 13th, 14th and 15th amendments in some sort of Second Reconstruction period. On paper, at least, Blue States would probably ultimately be victorious in any Second Civil War. Not that a lot of people wouldn’t die and once the whole thing is over we might have a generation or more of rebuilding ahead of us.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

But there are absolutely no assurances that there would be any sort of tidy ending to a Second Civil War. It’s just as possible that the country simply collapses and we have an ending a lot closer to what happened to the Soviet Union than we do America during the First Civil War.

The point of it all is a civil war would suck. It would be an enormous clusterfuck to the point that everyone involved would regret they ever thought there would be any upside to it. And, yet, here we are. It’s possible that the United States, the most powerful nation in the world is, in a few years, going to use WMD on itself and bomb itself into the stone age with its eyes wide open — and by choice.

Steve K. Bannon: The Most Dangerous Man In America


by Ender

It’s very easy for Twitter liberals to get really worked up and to place on the blame America’s impending political clusterfuck solely on the shoulders of this or that person, as if we could somehow magically get rid of them then all of our problems would be solved.

This is so dumb because everyone from Trump to Bannon to DeJoy isn’t the problem, but, rather a symptom of our problems.

That someone like Trump could become president with the help of someone like Bannon is simply the practical application of severe macro problems in our politics. A prime example of what I’m talking about is what happened post-election day in 2020.

All these people who popped up to help Trump’s slow moving attempt to illegally stay in power were simply opportunists. Someone, somewhere, was going to pop up to do the very same thing. Who did it specifically did not really matter.

But let’s talk about Steve K. Bannon.

Steve K. Bannon

He likes to see himself as Lord Zod, destroyer of the administrative state. I think, in fact, he may have even compared himself to Lenin. Such suck-your-own-cock self-aggrandizement is pushing it, but not by much. Here’s what happened last time, with John Eastman trying to end our democracy.

While it’s highly like that someone like Bannon would have sprung up as we careened towards the Fourth Turning, the verdict is still out if he is A Great Man like Lenin who not just was a part of history, but MADE history. But even Lenin needed the conditions for him to strike.

This is the point in this post when I point out that I know myself well enough to know that if we really did have something as horrific as a civil war that *I* might just find myself in a historic situation. That sounds really fucking delusional — and it is. But I know myself well enough to know that either I’m going to die the first day of any civil war or I’m going to somehow weasel myself into some kind of leadership position in Blue State forces…somewhere. It may not be much, but would be a shit ton more than what I’m doing with my life right now.

But that is really fucking delusional thing for me to say at the moment.

The reason Bannon is so dangerous is he is attacking the very fiber of our liberal democracy. He’s attack it at the local level where it is its weakest because the requirements for participation are so low. These are usually filled with just average people off the street who believe in civil society and want to help out.

Bannon, meanwhile, wants to do to these otherwise pretty mundane offices what Trump has done to SCOTUS — fil it with a bunch of MAGA New Right ideologs who will come through for Trump (or DeSantis, or whomever) when the time comes in the 2024 – 2025 time frame (or the 2022 mid-terms.)

And, yet, the best laid plans of mice and human tumors often go awry. Bannon is probably going to be successful in destroying our democracy, but he also might be successful in destroying our democracy. There will come a moment at some point between now and January 2025 when Bannon’s plot will just about to succeed and, yet, it will not have totally succeeded. Here’s why we migtht have a civil war instead.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

There will be one last death struggle for our democracy and either, like in 1861, we manage to crawl ourselves back from being dominated by Slave Power or, lulz, we don’t and Bannon is named reichsfuhrer.

One thing that is key to understand about Bannon. He is doing the one thing that so many so-called “Resistors” on Twitter can not or will not do — he’s doing real shit in the real world. He’s doing the hard work of effectuating his personal vision in the real world.

And that’s what makes him so fucking dangerous.

My Hot Take On A Majority Of Trump Voters Wanting To Secede From The United States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My hot take on a majority of MAGA New Right voters wanting to secede from the the Union is that it’s solely the result of the quirk in history we’re now living through. If either Trump had been the autocrat people voted for in 2016 or had COVID not hit and Biden not been the nominee, those very same people would be the bedrock of a United America Party.

They would be the people who were thrilled that we’d just had a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention and liberals were, at last, owned.

But neither one of those things happened. Trump could not live up to his reputation as the “You’re Fired” Guy and the stars of politics and history aligned in just the right way so deny Trump the ability to rant his way into a stolen second term.

So here we are.

What should be happening – Trump, or someone like Trump, working swiftly to consolidate autocratic power — isn’t happening. This leaves people who want Trumplandia, the MAGA New Right cocksuckers, upset that they can’t turn the United States into a Russian clone immediately.

Also, I think some of what’s going on is that usual MAGA New Right bullshit where they take some ridiculous political position just to own the libs in the mainstream media. They like seeing talking heads on TV freaking out, so they say things they don’t really mean to get that result.

But I will say that the poll in question leans credence to my view that one, the United States is an autocracy without an autocrat and two, the country is far more politically unstable than you might believe.

All that would have to happen is something unexpected to put undue pressure on our political system and some pretty dramatic, unexpected things. Another thing — I still think it’s going to be Blue States that are pushed into a corner to such an extent that they decide to leave the Union in the late 2024 – early 2025 timeframe.

So, it will be Blue States who ultimately leave the Union, not Red States. I say this because all the macro trends favor Red States and when the time comes for some sort of civil war, I will be shocked if it’s not the Red States who get the USA “brand name.”

And even then, that’s really the absolute worst case scenario.

More likely than not, we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy, without people like me an Norm Ornstein getting all that upset about the change in our basic political system.

Or, put another way, for the time being, everything is still up in the air. It could go either way — autocracy or civil war.

The Era of Preparation


by Ender

Using my abstract strategic thinking abilities to wargame against the wargamer Steve K. Bannon (don’t forget that K!), makes me feel empowered. So, here goes.

Steven K. Bannon

Bannon’s wargame is this — he and his MAGA New Right acolytates are working largely in broad daylight (podcasts, etc) because they can. Yes, I’m sure they’re plotting in the dark somewhere, but, in general, they’re making it very clear what they’re up to and, fuck you, lib.

How do we strike back?

First, I would say take what human tumor Bannon is up to seriously. If he wants to play Lenin, then I will play Trotsky. I’m well aware how bad a historical analogy that is — Trotsky became so close to Lenin that he was named his successor in his will before Stalin did a number on that — but I’ve always felt an affinity to Trotsky.

Or, put another way, if I was force Quantum Leap style to jump into the body of a Russian Revolutionary, it would be Trotsky. I have an affinity for how, as I understand it, Trotsky had a number of opportunities to beat Stalin but kept choking at critical historical moments. Which sounds like something I would do.

Anyway, how do we take Steve “Lenin” Bannon seriously? Well, I would say, first we listen to him. We study him. We listen to his very badly hosted podcast and take him both seriously and literally. One thing I share with Bannon is I often get worked up about about abstract speculation that never turns out to be true.

With Bannon, it’s from a combination of wishful thinking and hitching his horse to malignant Chauncey Gardner, Donald Trump. With me, I create a narrative for this or that thing that just, ultimately, doesn’t exist. So, in a sense, that’s a shared known known weakness of the two of us.

Once we pay attention to Bannon and his fellow reactionary radical revolutionaries, we start to think existential. There will be no voting reform. It’s unlikely the filibuster will be eliminated or reformed, either. Looking forward, because Bannon is a sly and evil, we have to do triage. Trump is above the law. Even if we did somehow manage to neutralize him as an autocratic force, there are a dozen other would-be autocrats in the wings, waiting to do exactly what Bannon is trying to do with Trump — turn the United States into an autocratic white Christian ethno state of “blood and soil.”

Bannon’s goal is to pull this off peacefully. If he can just corrupt the election process institution itself enough, then everything the MAGA New Right will be seen as what happened in 2000 only, a quantum leap beyond. In other words, the very “media narrative” that earnest goomba talk about on Joe Rogan’s podcast will be used to their advantage.

The entire election process will be so corrupt that your CNN and MSNBC talking heads will just shrug and tell everyone to calm down — the “system worked” and things aren’t so bad, now are they? That will be their “media narrative,” of course, until the media itself is purged and, lulz, sucks to be you lib.

Another thing I would do, on an individual basis, is think existential. What are you good at? If there was a prolonged crisis — be it autocracy or civil war — what organic talents do you have that you could use to help support the cause of liberty? But for you to do that, there’s something else you would have to do first — decide what’s important to you in the real world.

What makes Bannon so dangerous is the so-called “Resistance” is so busy having a circle jerk on Twitter with its “booms” and “devastating” retorts that he’s busying effecting change in the real world, where it actually matters. He’s thinking existential in the real world, while at the moment, everyone who might oppose him there is too busy drinking wine while watching Maddow and growing their essential oils business.

Ugh.

The only way to fight back against Bannon at this point on an individual basis is to pull back and wait. Think existential and study him closely — listen to his podcast — and take him both seriously and literally. When he’s not ranting about how people like me are a joke, he and others like him and suggesting that I’m “forcing” him to radicalize and embrace political violence. Talk about snowflakes.

I know that sounds rather abstract. What you want is a VOX practical explainer that is simply, cogent and explains small things you can do between now and January 2025 that will ensure you and your loved ones are safe.

Sorry. I have no idea what to tell you in concrete terms. There still too many unknown unknowns for me to be able to do that. All I know is don’t rely upon “hope” at this point to fix anything.

The era of hope is over. The era of preparation has begun.

The Fourth Turning Of 2025 & The Radical Moderates Of The Second American Civil War



by Ender

The thing about the first civil war was how it radicalized President Lincoln, who was, for the most part, pretty moderate. It is difficult for the average modern person to understand how radical abolition was when Lincoln embraced it as a war aim. If you want some sense of the lead up to the Emancipation Proclamation, the late William Safire wrote a huge tome of a historical novel called “Freedom” which is about that very thing.

Anyway, since Americans are the vast majority of the time extremely laid back on a macro political level — we’re not French, after all — only very rarely do you see moderates pick up the banner of radicalism. The most obvious time this happened was the Civil War Era, but, to a far lesser extent “radical moderates” also popped up around the Great Depression as well.

In fact, when it came to the First Civil War, it was these radical moderates who ultimately saved the Union. Only by embracing the radical war aim of freeing the slaves could the Union be saved.

And, now, the United States may be in a modern antebellum period. I only say “may” because a Second American Civil War is one of three options before us — autocracy, civil war or some sort of military junta that might lead to a Constitutional Convention.

The prime candidates to become Radical Moderates are all of the NeverTrumpers, a smattering of the Usual Suspect talking heads on CNN and MSNBC and maybe a few Hollywood celebrities with political ambitions. The key thing to remember is, however, once you slice the seal on a civil war, there’s no going back. Everything — and I mean everything — would be thrown up in the air. Strange alliances would be made. New heroes would arise. Historical figures that you could never imagine might spring into the public imagination.

But there’s one thing I have to make absolutely clear — no matter how much people like Jesse “Welcome To The New Right!” Kelly want to glorify the prospect of a civil war, it would suck. It would suck so bad that everyone involved, no matter who won, would live to regret it ever happened for the rest of their lives.

I say this for a number of pretty obvious reasons.

One, everything would grow existential. When things grow existential, it’s not where you went to school, or your race, or gender or if you’re a hipster in a coffee shop or a transgender person upset over the latest J.K Rowling attack. What would matter is how, you, as a person, could help the war effort. Starvation would be everywhere. Death. Despair. Tragedy. Hate. All these things would become a basic part of everyday life.

I believe this because if things got so bad that there was an actual Second American Civil War, WMD would be seized and used (a whole lot!) The lights would go out. Internet may be blocked or not available. You wouldn’t know anything because your access to any form of mass communication might be controlled or non-existent.

What’s once the United States buckled, the rest of the world would not be far behind. We’re talking WW3. Billions could die if not from a number of limited nuclear exchanges, then from the starvation that would result from the following Nuclear Winter.

All because Tucker Carlson convinced Baby Boomers that the Worst Thing That Could Happen To Them Is To Be “Canceled.”

Because of all of this, the aforementioned Radical Moderates would rise to the surface and probably be in control of the Blue States.

I find myself wondering how long a Second American Civil War might last. A lot would depend on the specifics of what caused it and the leadership the two sides had when it began. Or, even more importantly — what would be the two sides war aims?

The MAGA New Right would have some very clear war aims at the beginning — establish a White Christian Autocratic Ethno State — while Blues would probably have to gradually come up with them. And, as I have repeatedly said, a lot would depend on what California did. If it left the Union altogether, the Reds probably would win and consolidate power in the rump USA.

If, however, California stayed united with other Blue States, then we’re going to the show. California would be the Union’s Arsenal Of Democracy.

But, let me be clear –while I like to think the high-risk, high-reward of a Second American Civil War would lead ultimately to a stronger, more perfect Union just like the First Civil War, it might just suck. The United States could simply devolve into a number of rump states like the old Soviet Union.

It could be that after a number of years of chaos, that you would have something that looked like this: California, Texas and Florida would be their own nation-states. NYC might be a “free state.” Some sort of American Taliban might control huge swaths of the South.

Meanwhile, you would have a number of regional alliances that would exist with the goal of giving people some sense of security.

But all of that is extremely speculative. It could be that, in the end, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that’s that. Wealthy liberals leave the country for, I dunno, Perth and the cities of Europe and the remaining Americans slowly, but inevitably, circle the drain to “shit hole country” status.

Good luck. You — and the Radical Moderates — will need it.