Well, Being Sober Is Making Me A More Productive Writer

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I fuck hate being sober. I really do. But here I am, feeling obliged to be sober because, well, I would like to live. No longer living in an alcohol induced haze has caused me to be a more productive writer.

My novel’s heroine sports a sleeve tattoo much like this one on Megan Fox.

Maybe not as creative, but at least more focused and productive.

I hope to get a lot of writing done in the near term. Things are moving really fast with this new iteration of the novel, to the point that I may soon be working on the NEXT novel in what I hope will be a series.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the scifi Western I want to write. All of this is happening, of course, in the context of the looming Fourth Turning and or Petite Singularity making all my hard work writing these novels rather quaint and moot.

Anyway, wish me luck.

Hard MAGA Power Vs. Soft Woke Power

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I’ve gleaned from talking to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — is their abject fear of some future tyranny coming not from the hard power of the state but the soft power of “woke corporations.”

Of course, they’re complicit in the rise of the American fascist corporate state because not only do they not take the looming fascism of MAGA seriously, but they because they, in general, agree with that fascism it would all be a lulz.

Not until the hard power of the MAGA fascist state is used to not only deport 20 million undocumented people — which they want — but to also murder me in cold blood — which they don’t want — will they take notice of how there is a definite difference between hard and soft power.

So, what happens is, conservatives would far rather conflate issues and get REALLY WORKED UP over the “abuses” of the woke than they would have to give serious answers to questions like, “What happens when the massive infrastructure built out to deport 20 million people is used to murder people you love?”

They usually either don’t answer, make a joked to change the subject or piviot to the latest conservative talking point.

It can be very, very frustrating.

The rise of a MAGA fascist state in the US is not an abstract to me — I’m really beginning to worry that if Trump becomes POTUS again that I’m going to be murdered in cold blood by an ICE agent — or whatever — because I simply will not, can not shut the fuck up about how I think Trump is a fat fuck cocksucker.

But my conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — just lulz all this. As long is those brown families are torn asunder at the border they’ll be content. As long as a stray trans person doesn’t get a free can of But Light, they will be content. As long as the social safety net is gutted and only fools and poors pay taxes, they will be content.

The list goes on.

It will be interesting to see what my fate is. If I’m lucky, I will be able to escape the country should Trump win re-election later this year.

A Darkness At Noon: What If Trump Goes Full Tyrant in 2025?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying — I can’t predict the future. So there’s every reason to believe that Trump will lose later this year and we’ll punt our problems down the road another four years.

And, yet.

I like to make my abstract fears concrete, so, I worry. I worry a lot. Specifically, I worry about what is going to happen if Trump wins and then goes “fully tyrant” in 2025. Will there be any reaction at all if Trump is literally snatching his opponents off the street in broad daylight?

That, specifically, is the thing I just can’t game out. It could be that nothing happens and it could be that Trump will be so ham-handed in his autocracy that he single-handedly causes those rarest of American political creatures, the “Radical Moderate” to pop out.

Radical Moderates only appear in times of great crisis — like the Civil War, The Great Depression or WW2. And usually they don’t last long. The calm down and go back to being just regular old centrists.

I just don’t know. I have no idea what to tell you about events going forward.

I Can’t Predict The Future, No One Can

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about late 2024, early 2025, is *the conditions* are there for a massive clusterfuck. But, it could be, that we just muddle through like we usually do. That’s the outcome I want.

I worry about an Election of 1872-type situation in 2024.

If we managed to punt our problems down the road another four years, that would be great.

I’m worried. I’m really worried.

I’m worried for a number of reasons. One is President Biden’s age. Another is the instability caused by the bonkers “Free Palestine” people. Another is Trump’s age. The list goes on.

I keep thinking about what happened during the election of 1872 and what we would do if something similar happened today. It’s a formula for a “Not great, Bob” situation.

But who knows. It could be that I’ve really worried a great deal for no reason. Yet if Trump wins in 2024, all bets are off. Just the idea of Trump attempting to deport 20 million people sends shivers down my spine and keeps me awake at night.

And, yet, here we are, with Trump preparing to do that very thing the moment he can. I don’t know what to tell you.

Going Forward Into A Possible Civil War / Revolution There’s One Thing That I’m Nervous About: The DPRK

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I make a lot of dark, dystopian predictions on this blog about the future. I can’t predict the future, so I don’t *know* what will happen. But I am…uneasy about our future. All the *conditions* are there for some sort of collapse of the United States for various reasons.

As such, my big concern if THAT happens is the DPRK will take advantage of the situation and start lobbing H-bombs in our direction. It will be a lot more difficult for Blues to win over Reds if, say, LA and NYC have been vaporized.

So, lulz? I don’t know what to tell you. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I am very, very concerned that the future could be a far, far darker than we’re willing to accept at the moment.

It could be that about 1 billion people will die directly because of ding-dong Trump. Buckle up.

It’s Clear That The United States Is Lurching Towards A White Christian Ethnostate The Moment Any Republican Becomes POTUS

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re doomed. We’re fucking doomed. The Republican Party is now a fascist one with one agenda and one agenda only — to establish the United States as an autocratic, MAGA-themed white Christian ethnostate.

The key thing to remember is that we can only punt this particular problem down the road so much. Even if we “vote harder” and beat Trump at the polls, the Republican Party is so fascist and radicalized that it’s inevitable that the pressure to transform the US into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate will remain.

So, if it’s not 2025 that we turn into an Christian autocracy, it will be 2029.

As such, there is a part of me — not a very big part — that feels like throwing down the gauntlet NOW so at least if we are going to have a big political / military fight over the choice of autocracy or freedom at least ding-dong Trump will be in charge of the fucking fascists, not someone with any sense about them.

But I only think that when I get really fucking frustrated with the chipper do-gooders who think that if we only “vote harder” that that will fix everything. But it won’t. There’s a good chance that even if the “vote harder” strategy works that Trump will demand a National Divorce to avoid prison time.

Or, put another way — the issue is, that barring some sort of Black Swan event pretty soon, late 2024, early 2025 could see some of the most dramatic events in American — if not human — history. I can’t predict the future. Who knows.

It Definitely *Seems* Like We’re Doomed As Of Late February 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I can’t predict the future — no one can. But boy, oh boy, does it seem like we’re careening towards a very, very dark future. Because of various demographic and economic trends that are warping our political system, it seems as though we’re either going to turn into a MAGA-themed Russian autocracy in 2025, or we’re going to collapse into civil war / revolution starting in late 2024, early 2025.

In short — we’re fuuuuuuuucked.

And all because of vibes. The greatest nation in the world is going to either give up its democratic birthright or collapse into anarchy…because of vibes. Now, obviously, those “vibes” are being generated by a number of more serious issues — racism and misogyny being at the top of the list.

But there just doesn’t seem like there’s much we can do. Even if we defeat Trump, he could very well demand a National Divorce to stop himself from going to prison. And Biden is so old that….ugh. I just don’t want to think about some of the crazier, darker potential scenarios.

And let me remind you — it could be that somehow, someway we’ll muddle through our problems and somehow Trump will both lose and not start a civil war. Some Black Swan event could happen that make all my dystopian hellscape scenarios moot.

So, who knows.

But now, as of late February 2024 — we’re fucked.

Psychohistory: A Study Of Macro History Would Have Predicted Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I used to compare Trump to The Mule character in The Foundation books. But I don’t think that anymore. I think if you had done a back-of-the-envelope projection of America’s future in the late 1980s, you would come to the realization that someone like Trump was going to pop out of the political woodwork.

The reason is — angry white conservative Christians feel aggrieved and put upon to the point that they see someone like Trump as an avatar for all their fears about changing America. And it all really boils down to a lack of those sweet, sweet white babies that such people want so bad — even though they don’t give a shit what happens to them once they’re born.

And, what’s more, Trump isn’t a Great Man of history. He’s not Hitler. He’s just too lazy and dumb to be such a person. He doesn’t bend history to his will, he just rides it to its logical conclusion. As such, he may very well force the issue one way or another in late 2024, early 2025.

It could be that if he becomes POTUS again, he will thrash around in such a ham-handed, tyrannical way that he will force Americans to make a decision — are we prepared to live in an autocratic state or not? If Trump was out of the picture, I think the US would simply gradually become a MAGA-themed autocracy because a Republican President — ANY Republican President other than Trump — would be able to transition us into such a state without people taking off their Apple Vision Pros.

But ding-dong Trump is so dumb and lazy that he might force Traditionalists to make a decision if, say, their vocal center-Left relative is snatched off the street for refusing to shut up about what a cocksucker Tyrant Trump is.

Anyway. What do I know. I can’t predict the future. But I am worried.

Things Are Going Well With The Newest Attempt At A Third Draft Of The Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I think the only way I’m actually going to get past the first few chapters is just…not look at the first few chapters of the third draft once I finish them. Just wing it when it comes to consistency.

My dream is to write a novel as accessible and popular as The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.

Things are set up now that I should be able to methodically go through at least the first half of the novel without feeling forced to re-read everything from the beginning. I had a real problem the last time I thought I had transitioned from the first to second acts of the third draft to the point that I went back to the very beginning and made some structural changes.

I’m pretty pleased, in general, with what I’ve come up with. I continue to worry about things I just can’t control. The rise of AI and the possibility of The Fourth Turning happening at some point over the next 18 months weigh heavily on my mind. But, as I’ve written, finishing this novel is existential.

I’m going to try to finish the third draft of this novel not later than April, but it might be closer to July. THEN I have to worry about finding the funds to get someone to look over the novel before I query an agent. And even then, I have to worry about an agenda doing due dilligence on me and thinking I’m not only a crackpot, but a smelly CIS white male who writes from a female POV sometimes.

I do still have a few scifi concepts I want to work on. It’s just so difficult for me to stop fixating on the mystery-thriller long enough to do such a thing. But I really do need to do it ASAP. I don’t like having all my eggs in one basket.

Comparing To Trump to Navalny Is Fucking Insane

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The late Alexei Navalny.

Alexei Navalny’s tragic death has caused the usual MAGA suspects to compare his murder to what’s going on with Trump these days. Or, even more stupidly, MAGA will do “whataboutism” of pointing out the uncertain nature of Jeffery Epstein’s death in prison.

Ugh.

And Tucker Carlson pretty much gave Putin a pass for what happened to Navalny. Double ugh. The whole thing is fucked up. But it does give us a pretty solid indication of how bad things will get if Trump is re-elected.

I continue to predict that about 1 million wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flee the country starting in late 2024, early 2025 should Trump get re-elected. That will be just the beginning as Trump begins to put the squeeze on anyone he sees as either a potential political opponent or critic.

What’s so bonkers about all of this is, of course, the fact that if Trump is really ham-handed in the implementation of MAGA tyranny….oh boy. All bets are off as to how that particular situation is finally fixed. If Trump is a total bonkers tyrant starting in 2025….it’s at least POSSIBLE that Blues might rise up against him in some sort of General Strike that might lead to a Glorious Revolution.

But I have my doubts — and I’m not advocating anything. I hate violence of any sort.

Yet I am worried. Very worried.