Be The Power
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’ve already written about this, but let’s look again at who Trump might pick as his Second Term Veep.
To me, at the moment, there are the “normal” veeps and everyone else. Trump is very vain and very stupid and as such he is very likely to pick a weirdo as his veep as “insurance.” I could totally see him picking one of the following.
Louie Gohmert
Mike Flynn
Dr. Ronny Johnson
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
You could not think up a worse situation for the United States at the moment. Not only do you have a very old POTUS, you have an equally divided Senate. There’s no chance in hell that you could get a veep replacement through Congress right now should, God forbid, the absolute worst happen to our elderly POTUS.
So, if you wanted to get absolute worst case scenario on things, you could imagine something tragic happening to POTUS — maybe in cursed August? — and then we don’t have a veep. Then Republicans take the House and we have Speaker Trump who goes transactional on Truth Social, demanding political violence on the part of his followers in an effort to force Senate Democrats to go along with an impeachment of now President Harris.
Or, if you REALLY wanted to get dark, Speaker Trump doesn’t just call for political violence — he calls for secession.
And that, my gentle reader, is how we could possibly have a civil war not in in 2024 – 2023 but, essentially, NOW. But that’s really dark. Really, really dark. It’s extremely unlikely. Remote, even. But it is something to think about.
To put another way — the United States is far more unstable than any of us would like to admit.
Ok, you fucking MAGA cocksuckers who come to this site chomping at the bit for a civil war to happen NOW — here’s how it would happen.
Something Tragic Happens To Biden
No Veep Because The Senate Is Equally Divided
The House Flips In November.
Speaker Trump
Speaker Trump Impeaches President Harris
In An Effort To Put Pressure On Senate Democrats, Speaker Trump Rants On Truth Social That Red States Should Secede If They Don’t Vote To Convict.
There you go, you fucking dipshit MAGA New Right cocksuckers — a civil war almost immediately.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
People — especially Twitter liberals — really need to stop sucking their own cocks and get woke when it comes to how dire our immediate future is. Because of deep-seated, structural problems in the American body politic we are totally fucked.
The Republican Party is now fascist and, as such, it’s only a matter of time before they get power again and blow past democratic norms and seize power for good. That will be that. We’ll just be the most wealthy of a series of autocracies that include Turkey, Hungary and Russia.
All the Twitter liberals who think someone or something will save us will flee the country and drink cocktails in the south of France. They’ll talk about their latest Twitter thread that can’t even be viewed in the US anymore without a VPN.
Or we have a civil war.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Those are our two options at the moment. The system isn’t working and won’t work. It’s over. For the time being, we’re living in the twilight of American democracy (an anocracy) before we make the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.
This is no longer 2017. It’s clear that Trump and his ilk are above the law and they don’t give a fuck about democratic norms, shame or any sense of being in the wrong because of hypocrisy. So, again, we’re fucked.
Absolutely, totally, completely fucked.
Either you see that our you’re fool.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Since it’s conception at the hands of Roger Ailes, Fox News has ranted about how this or that Democratic scandal is “bigger than Watergate.” They have done this to seed the ground for the moment when Republicans again do something like Watergate. They wanted their audience to be completely indifferent to the idea of anything being “bigger than Watergate.”
And, reading the new Watergate history, I’m struck by how extremely specific a scandal it was. Everyone thought it was the gold standard for how a modern Washington scandal was suppose to unfold when it was a very specific event that would never be repeated.
This was never more shown with the complete fucking clusterfuck that was Trumplandia were crimes “bigger than Watergate” happened on a nearly-daily basis in broad daylight.
But that’s not the point at the moment. The point is — I’m getting some serious pings from the future that things are going to get bumpy very quickly. And what is about to happen will be, in fact, “bigger than Watergate.” It will be bigger because we’ll be dealing with not the political but the existential.
Is America going to become a full blow Russian-style autocracy or is it going to have a civil war?
If that’s not bigger than Watergate, I don’t know what is.
At the moment, I have no idea which one is going to happen, which choice will be made. But I do know that starting with the overturning of Roe and the publicized primetime January 6th hearings that America’s ship of state is in for some severe rocky waters.
As I keep saying, if we chose autocracy, nothing will change at first. But Trump isn’t a young man. Whomever he picks as his veep, even that the Republic Party on an intuitional basis is now fascist, will quickly turn America in an autocracy the moment he — or she — becomes POTUS.
Or we have a civil war.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Things really that dire. The country really is that much on edge. I can’t predict future. There is no reveled truth, but I do know that there are dark waters ahead of the United States.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m looking forward to this month’s primetime January 6th hearings, but I have very ambivalent expectations. On one hand, I fully expect them to be compelling. On the other hand — meh. So what.
The United States is now not a democracy, but an anocracy and as such, lulz. Either we’re going to become a bull-blown autocracy or we’re going to have a civil war. The rot at the center of our political system is just too extensive. Epic, tectonic macro trends are at work and it will ultimately be up in the air which direction we go until the around the middle of late 2024.
I honestly don’t know what we’re going to do.
But the fact remains — we’re going to, as a nation, get a lot closer to understanding what happened on January 6th. Then collectively shrug and go back to hating each other.
For the time being, Republicans continue to be ascendant and there’s no reason to not think that the GQP will simply barrel over the center-Left and establish an American-flavored autocracy starting around 2025.
But, I suppose, there is small chance we’ll have a civil war. I don’t want one, and seeing’s believing that the American center-Left has it in it to start one.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I have written about this before, but the continued trickle to this otherwise obscure site from people interested in the prospect of a Second American Civil War encourages me to write from every angle possible. Again, if necessary.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Ok, here’s where we have to make some assumptions. One assumption I’m going to make is that history will flip the script and it will be Blues, not Reds who want to leave the Union. The Reds are ascendant and should they start a civil war it would be one of the dumbest political screw ups in macro American history.
So, if a Second Civil War came to the United States, it would be started by Blues, not Reds, probably at some point in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe. The war aim of the Blues would most likely be the “National Divorce” that the Reds keep salivating over.
But, because history loves, loves, loves irony, it will be Reds — probably forced by the U.S. Military — that will attack Blues when they try to leave the Union on the State level. Or, it could be that as Blue leave the Union, that the U.S. Military gets hollowed out as people within it leave for their home states and the US of Canada military, or whatever.
It could be that Reds demand Blues stay in the Union and we fight it out to see if Blues can start their own, new, Union or not. Or the fight is over “messy” states like Virginia and Texas that might implode because they don’t fit the easy definitions of “Blue” and “Red.”
This type of speculation is very difficult to do because there are so many factors that I simply can’t figure out. One is, will, for macro reasons, leadership that the center-Left definitely doesn’t have at the moment, rise to the occasion? I have my doubts, which is why I have my doubts about there being a civil war in the first place.
At the moment, we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. America will become another autocracy like Russia, Hungary or Turkey. In fact, that might be the biggest re-alignment of the 21st Century — the US ditching democracy altogether to join a new alliance of autocratic nations. Who knows, at this point, anything is possible.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Once you go through a clusterfuck like Trump as president, it can make you a little twitchy. So, we have to take seriously the idea that someone as bonkers as Rep. Louie Gohmert might run — and win — the White House if something happened to Trump. (What that might be, I don’t know.)
Or, to put it another way, we might really have something to cry about if it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee in 2024.
The thing about Gohmert is he really does know how the government works and if he, God forbid — became POTUS — he could really rise to the occasion in a bad, bad way.
Or, maybe I’m looking at it wrong.
What might happen would be Trump is the nominee in 2024 as expected and he picks Gohmert as his Veep and THAT is how Gohmert becomes POTUS. Or, put another way — keep a real close eye on who Trump picks to be his second term Veep.
And a lot of very smart, extremely ambitious men and women in Republican ranks know that too — the question is, of course, will DeSantis bend a knee to get to be Trump’s veep or will they have a political death match?
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
A series of things are set to happen in the United States in June and July. Most of them have to do with SCOTUS rulings. A series of huge SCOTUS rulings will come out in June. As I understand it, besides Roe being overturned, we’ll also see a ruling on Affirmative Action.
But something just as big — in its own way — could be the televised January 6th hearings.
It’s possible that all of this could rile people up. And we haven’t even gotten to the point where we have to deal with the curse that it is August as a whole. But who knows. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
For about 40 odd years, there was an implied narrative to Washington scandals that originated directly from what we experienced with Watergate. And then Trump happened and, lulz, nothing matters. I’m reading the new Watergate history and it’s amazing how the Ur modern Washington scandal was like a real life political thriller.
There was cause and effect. And, most of all, there was accountabiilty.
With Trumplandia, there is no cause but no effect. We know everything that happened and, lulz, there is no criminal persecution. Nothing happens. Nothing matters. In fact, if anything, the more “criming” Trump and his ilk do, the more power they accrue because it shows how much power they really have. A lot of this has to do with FOX News existing. A lot of it has to do with the abject lack of shame on the part of Republicans. A lot of it has to do with how all politics is now national.
There is no middle ground.
So, Trump gets away with deep, severe political crimes every day and nothing happens. And, to date, nothing has happened. We are in a post-accountability era. Either we go all-in and have autocratic white minority rule, or we finally get some accountability as part of a civil war.
Take your pick.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m reading the new Watergate history and I keep thinking about dingus Trump and how he did worse than that scandal when he woke up in the morning. But there is one issue that stands out so far from reading the book: Nixon was very stupid because the Watergate break in happened just about when it was clear he was going to win, no cheating necessary.
The same goes with Trump — even though Trump is demonstrably not as popular as he was at his height, with the entire Republican Party at his beck and call, I think Trump is a shoe-in to win 2024 without any cheating. And, yet, it’s so much a part of Trump’s character to cheat that he will do everything in his power to win, even if it means cheating even though he will win.
But the fact remains — we’re going to have a civil war or begin the final process of turning into an autocracy around 2024 – 2025. If we choose autocracy, there may be an American spin to it, but it will exist. We’ll have minority rule and be an autocratic state of blood and soil where Republicans have one party control — and change the Constitution soon enough.
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