A series of things are set to happen in the United States in June and July. Most of them have to do with SCOTUS rulings. A series of huge SCOTUS rulings will come out in June. As I understand it, besides Roe being overturned, we’ll also see a ruling on Affirmative Action.
But something just as big — in its own way — could be the televised January 6th hearings.
It’s possible that all of this could rile people up. And we haven’t even gotten to the point where we have to deal with the curse that it is August as a whole. But who knows. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward.
For about 40 odd years, there was an implied narrative to Washington scandals that originated directly from what we experienced with Watergate. And then Trump happened and, lulz, nothing matters. I’m reading the new Watergate history and it’s amazing how the Ur modern Washington scandal was like a real life political thriller.
There was cause and effect. And, most of all, there was accountabiilty.
With Trumplandia, there is no cause but no effect. We know everything that happened and, lulz, there is no criminal persecution. Nothing happens. Nothing matters. In fact, if anything, the more “criming” Trump and his ilk do, the more power they accrue because it shows how much power they really have. A lot of this has to do with FOX News existing. A lot of it has to do with the abject lack of shame on the part of Republicans. A lot of it has to do with how all politics is now national.
There is no middle ground.
So, Trump gets away with deep, severe political crimes every day and nothing happens. And, to date, nothing has happened. We are in a post-accountability era. Either we go all-in and have autocratic white minority rule, or we finally get some accountability as part of a civil war.
I’m reading the new Watergate history and I keep thinking about dingus Trump and how he did worse than that scandal when he woke up in the morning. But there is one issue that stands out so far from reading the book: Nixon was very stupid because the Watergate break in happened just about when it was clear he was going to win, no cheating necessary.
The same goes with Trump — even though Trump is demonstrably not as popular as he was at his height, with the entire Republican Party at his beck and call, I think Trump is a shoe-in to win 2024 without any cheating. And, yet, it’s so much a part of Trump’s character to cheat that he will do everything in his power to win, even if it means cheating even though he will win.
But the fact remains — we’re going to have a civil war or begin the final process of turning into an autocracy around 2024 – 2025. If we choose autocracy, there may be an American spin to it, but it will exist. We’ll have minority rule and be an autocratic state of blood and soil where Republicans have one party control — and change the Constitution soon enough.
One of my favorite blog posts of all time comes from Slate, which suggests that August should be abolished because, well, it sucks. All these bad things happen in August to the point that maybe we should just not have August.
It’s possible that summer 2022 could be one of the more interesting summers in American history. It could be, if nothing else, a precursor to a very turbulent fall where the Reds seize control of Congress and…just never let it go again. Biden and Harris will be impeached — repeatedly — starting in January 2023.
But let’s go back to this summer.
A number of important SCOTUS opinions will be handed down — chief among them being the over turning of Roe. The reaction to the end of Roe will ultimately be the thing that determines our future. If there is a shrug, then, lulz, we’re just going to become a Russian-style autocracy.
And there will be the January 6th Commission hearings in June. I don’t think there is anything that can possibly come out of those hearings that will make a difference. No one cares and no one will care. Lulz.
But if there are serious protests across the nation because of Roe being ended and other major rulings. Yet, time will only tell. It could go either way. We will know soon enough, I guess.
Republicans are notoriously bad at governance. So, it’s possible that when one of the more loony members of their caucus gets up on Day One of the new, Republican controlled House in 2023 and puts forth some Articles of Impeachment, they could very well pass.
And then, lulz, out of sheer embarrassment, Republican House leadership will send the Articles of Impeachment over to the newly-Republican controlled Senate and we spend far, far, far longer than we should in 2023 sitting through a Biden Impeachment trial.
Then, of course, Republicans things might break their way and Republicans might think up something with a microscopic grain of merit to go after Biden with and we’ll have Impeachment Trial Number 2.
First, we have to accept that Red States starting a civil war at this point is silly. They’re politically ascendant and have every reason to just be patent and wait while we slowly become a Russian-style autocratic state. And YET, day after day I continue to get pings to this blog from people in the more rural portions of Red States from people obviously very interested in my dystopian hellscape civil war scenarios.
So, how, exactly, could Red States, rather than Blue States, start a civil war?
Well, one thing we have to do is define “civil war.” A bunch of good old boys grabbing their AR-15s and shooting dem dar librals is NOT a civil war. Maybe something akin to a second insurrection, but not a civil war. And, really, at this point, I think the Reds who want a civil war bandy the term around just because it’s the worst possible thing they can think of in response to this or that thing that Blues have done to annoy them this time.
But I’ll give the shithead Reds what they want — a civil war started by their side, not by my side. Here goes.
All I got, at this point, is things grow so white hot during the coming impeachment of both Biden and Harris after the Reds take control of Congress that Red States flip out and begin to leave the Union. This, but even more so if Biden for some reason succumbs to old age and it’s President Harris and Speaker Trump we’re talking about.
If Speaker Trump, in the middle of the impeachment trial of President Harris starts to rant about secession (or reTruths something about it) then, yeah, you fucking cocksucker Reds, you might just get your Second American Civil War.
Otherwise, lulz. It either doesn’t happen and we just become an autocracy, or it’s the BLUEs who start it because of a Certification Crisis around 2024 – 2025.
The conditions will soon exist for a massive, royal culsterfuck in the United States. Joe Biden is not a young man. And if the mid-terms go as poorly as we all fear, there is a real chance that Republicans will control both the House and Senate in 2023 – 2025.
Here’s the rather apocalyptic political situation we could find ourselves in: for some reason Biden shuffles off this mortal coil between 2023 – 2025 and there’s no veep. It’s very easy to assume that Republicans — being spiteful dickheads — will simply not let now President Harris pick a veep.
Depending on when Biden is no more, either we have Speaker Trump frothing at the mouth to impeach President Harris for just existing, or we have him on the sidelines doing the same, demanding the same thing.
Such a high charged impeachment situation, well, THAT could be the thing to spark a civil war if it careening out of control. It would be another way that states might begin to leave the Union sooner than 2024 -2025.
But the point remains — the United States is very unstable for various reasons. The question remains — do we simply shrug and turn into a Russian style autocracy or do we have some sort of very blood, very costly, very horrific “national divorce.”
For some time, I have suggested that all America needs is a slight push and all hell is going to break loose. And I still think that. There are two reasons why I believe this to be the case.
One is, I continue to get a trickle of people to this blog looking at my hysterical “terribly negative” predictions of doom and gloom for America’s future, specifically the possibility of civil war. Not that it’s all that many people who are thinking this, but there definitely are a number of people floating around the country thinking enough about civil war that they’re searching for it online.
The other is each new mass causality event in the United States seems to make people even more anxious than they already are. To me, that seems to indicate that the nation is a lot more on edge than it has been up until recently.
As such, it’s at least possible that if some big historic event happened in the US that left us all wondering Which Side Did It long enough for the guns to come out.
Or not. It could be that that isn’t at all what is going to happen. It could be that I’m overestimating how fucked up things are in the US and it will be a lot later, like around 2024 – 2025 before everything is primed for something catastrophic if we get just a little bit more pressure put on our society.
I’m honestly at a loss as to what’s going to happen to the United States between now and, say, January 2025. All I know is, it’s going to be big and I mean Big. America will never be the same, no matter what happens because a number of enormous, macro trends are all coming to a head as part of the 2024 presidential election cycle.
I dunno.
But, really, I have no idea what is going to happen.
Why?
The Two Sides Are Hardening Their Positions No matter what happens politically in the United States going forward, it’s going to happen in the context of the two sides growing more and more absolute in their views. There just isn’t any middle ground anymore. American politics is no longer in a death spiral — it just isn’t working at all anymore. So, either the MAGA New Right seizes some sort of total autocratic control or we have a civil war. No middle ground. No Viable Center-Left Leadership There are a least a dozen would-be autocrats within the MAGA New Right ranks. There are a dozen men and women who, should Trump hand pick them as his successor, could finish the job of turning America into a Russian-style autocracy and still be in power in 20 years. But, within the center-Left…there’s just nobody. There’s AOC…and? She’s kind of too young and should might kind of be knocked out of commission in the near term when she inevitable has her (1) one child after getting married between now and 2024. Or not. What the fuck do I know. But the center-Left has a real problem when the only leadership I can think of all comes from the ranks of the “Radical Moderate” #NeverTrumpers. Not, great, Bob! Trump I simply can not game out what’s going to happen with the USA as long as Trump may run for office either as Speaker in 2022 or POTUS in 2024 (and or both) I just don’t know. He kind of has the fate of the United States in his tiny, tiny little hands at the moment. MAGA Is Ascendant And Yet They Want Political Violence This is a real mystery to me. The MAGA New Right craves political violence, even though they’re on track to get everything they want over the course of the next generation or so. But here we are, with cry baby snowflake MAGA people whining about “the woke cancel culture mob” even though that, in a sense, is something of a joke.
At the moment, I don’t think there’s going to be a Second American Civil War in the US anytime soon. The MAGA New Right is ascendant and has the political will to get everything it wants over the course of the next decade or so. There might be a little bit of a hiccup around 2024 – 2025, but, overall we’re in American democracy’s twilight.
For there to be a shooting civil war in the United States, someone, somewhere within the Republican ranks would really have to screw up.
Enter dingus Donald Trump.
Now, let me be clear — there’s every reason to believe that Trump somehow won’t be the Republican 2024 nominee. He could get sick. He could simply not have it in him. He could pick some equally nuts successor (Mike Flynn?) and “retire” to some extent.
And, yet, we all know that if Trump has breath in his lungs, he’s going to want to be the center of attention, DeSantis be damned. And, since the entire edifice of the Republican Party is now designed specifically to ensure that Trump wins in 2024, he has every reason to run.
But Trump is sooooo fucking stupid and lazy. He also says “the quiet part out loud” much, and cheats even when he doesn’t have to, that if you posit that Trump is absolutely going to run in 2024, then the possibility of a civil war in the United States escalates dramatically.
So, by definition, Trump 2024 means things could grow extremely unstable. And even more so if the crazy idea to name Trump, Speaker of the House happens. Yikes!
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