Tag: Second American Revolution

Addressing Traditionalist Arguments


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Both Sides
In this argument, Traditionalists say they’re forced to take the side of the MAGA New Right because “both sides” are now extreme and they would rather there be a white fascist Christian ethno-state than a Leftist government that forces the “woke” agenda down people’s throats. And, of course, something something 2nd Amendment and something something abortion, something something transgender athletes. The flaw with these arguments, to me, is, well the Nazis. There’s a big difference between the de facto assholery of the “woke Leftist mob” and the de jure attacks on freedoms that come as part of any autocratic state. Form follows function, as they say. (This is where the “bogus” argument comes in.)
Debate Nullification (The ‘Bogus’ Argument)
The “Bogus” argument is when a Traditionalists just pretty much says, I don’t care what you’re saying, I don’t believe it and fuck you. They say, in effect, that they’ve made up their minds — they’re throwing their lot with fucking fascist racist bigots and there’s nothing you can say to change their minds. Then you either just stop debating politics or you start screaming at each other.
Being Attacked Just For Being Conservative
This is actually a valid argument. This is actually happening. But I would suggest they use traditional politics to get what they want — by say, changing their general political views and working within the changing demographics of a democracy — than simply burning everything down in a racist, bigoted hissy fit.

My Hot Take On Crooked Media’s Ben Rhodes’ Hot Take On Trump’s Electoral ‘Trap’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a fan of Ben Rhodes and the whole Crooked Media team, but I’m in the middle of listening to the latest Pod Save America and I have to take issue with something he just said.

He apparently wrote in The Atlantic that Trump has set something of a “trap” for center-Left people by making them aware of white identity politics, etc. This, in turn, makes us angry to the point that we alienate the people who would otherwise help us win elections.

I have two things to point out about this.

One is, we’re now an anocracy, to the point that we can no longer work with the assumption that elections will be free and fair in the first place. The 2020 elections could be, in fact, the last free-and-fair national elections that the United States ever has (unless, of course, we have a civil war and sort things out that way.) So, it’s difficult to win elections — no matter what your policies are — when the whole system is run by people on the local and state level who have heeded Steve K. Bannon’s call for an “administrative coup.”

Even if we get past that particular situation, the people that Rhodes is talking about that could be appealed to — people I call “Traditionalists” — no longer believe in democracy anymore. They’re all-in with the fascist MAGA New Right because they’re deathly afraid of white people being in the minority.

So, I just don’t see traditional politics being a viable option anymore for the center-Left. Either be prepared for a civil war or get out of the country. I don’t want a civil war and I think, in the end, many, many, MANY wealthy center-Left people — like Ben Rhodes — will ultimately leave the country.

That’s our future. Listening to Crooked Media through a VPN because fucking fat fuck President Mike Pompeo destroyed America. Good luck.

Trump Is Above The Law

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The following is an example of how Trump always says the quite part out loud — then NOTHING HAPPENS.

Scenario: How An Invasion Of Ukraine May Play Domestically In The United State States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love to run scenarios, so here’s one about how the American domestic political system might handle a major war in Ukraine. I think the first thing we have to appreciate is how fucked up America is right now. Much, if not all, of our problems with COVID comes strictly from how everything, EVERYTHING, is seen through absolute lens of partisan politics.

This does not bode well for what might happen within the United States if faced with the biggest land war in Europe since WW2. A lot depends on how long the war lasts. If it’s a quick “love tap” on the part of Putin that lasts only a few weeks, then the “rally round the flag” affect would last long enough that we wouldn’t really have any problems.

But if Putin is nuts enough to try to take a huge portion of Ukraine and the war begins to drag out for months or years, then all bets are off. It could be that the United States really is so divided that not even doing something as basic as defending democracy as part of being the lynchpin of the post-WW2 global order is something we can do effectively anymore.

It could be that the war lasts the more the two sides scream hysterically at each other like they do everything else and, well, we — and the Ukrainians — will be fucked. The United States will not only be barely able to help Ukraine, we’ll barely be able to do our job as part of NATO.

All of this, of course, would embolden China in regards to Taiwan. Then we might have TWO major regional wars taking place, which, of course, would be marketed as WW3. Then throw in the DPRK wanting to get in on the action by shooting of ICBMs and testing H-bombs and, well, things would grow very unstable globally very quickly.

I only say all of this because it seems as though the United States is so absolutely divided that there’s no one issue — not even one about life and death like a pandemic — that we’re willing to put aside our political differences long enough to address. Doesn’t exactly make me feel too secure going forward into a potential major war in Europe.

The MAGA New Right’s Power Grab



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One reason why I’m growing ever-more alarmed about what’s going on in the United States is how insatiable the MAGA New Right is. They are demonstrably ascendant and will get everything they want via politics, and, yet, they STILL are angry and STILL see violence as a viable means to an end.

The need to create a white Christian ethno-state is white hot now within the MAGA New Right. They will stop at nothing to get it, even though they are obviously well on track to getting it through traditional political means. There is a spectrum to all of this, of course, with Traditionalists focusing more on both-siderism and “election integrity” and the MAGA New Right thinking that liberals are “forcing” them to radicalize.

So, as I keep saying, it definitely seems as though if there is going to be a Second American Civil War, it will be when Blue States — starting with California — get sick of the MAGA New Right’s bullshit and begin to leave the Union. Then the US Military implodes and WMD are seized and we bomb ourselves into the Stone Age with our eyes wide open. That, in turn, causes WW3 and then the question is, will humanity survive at all?

The key issue is will, when the real crisis comes in 2024 – 2025, will the center-Left simply fold? Is that how this is going to play out? We slip peacefully into autocracy without even so much a grunt? From what I can tell of my complicit Traditionalist relatives, they won’t stop at anything until the autocracy is here. They will, in fact, be the backbone of American Autocracy.

And they won’t give a shit until things get personal for them, specifically. In other words, not until I get snatched off the street by ICE agents — or name a weaponized portion of the government — will they sit up and take notice. But, by then, it will be far too late to save me.

Is Putin Right About America?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is so absolutely divided at the moment that one has to believe that that division must be one of the things that Putin is using to weigh his invasion of Ukraine. And, just talking to my Traditionalist relatives, it definitely seems as though thinks are about to play out as I fear.

The American center-Right will grow hysterical about the United States having no business defending Ukraine, while the center-Left will grow hysterical that we absolutely need to defend them. How this would work out in real terms should there be a major war between Russia and Ukraine I don’t know. It will be interesting to see if the United States is just too divided to give Ukraine any coherence defense.

The fascist MAGA New Right is ascendant and one could make the argument that all Putin has to do is be patient. All he has to do is bide his time and by 2024 – 2025 the United States will either collapse into civil war or turn into a very inward looking autocracy that doesn’t give a shit about the outside world at all in the first place.

It’s definitely going to be interesting to see what happens. We don’t even know for sure that there’s going to be a war between Russia and Ukraine in the first place. I always get stuff like that wrong. So, it could be that all of this saber rattling on Putin’s part is just an elaborate ruse on his part to get attention. Only time will tell.

Red Pills & Red Lines


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My life would be so much better if I took the Red Pill and became a MAGA New Right conservative. I would be significantly closer to my relatives. I would have an extensive, built-in friend group. I’m articulate enough and generally passionate enough in whatever it is I believe in that if I would just take the Red Pill, I could be having dinner with Trump within six months.

But you know what — fuck that.

My biggest annoyance with my Traditionalist relatives — who aren’t MAGA New Right, but simply Good Germans — is they think they can get all the goodies of an autocratic white Christian ethno-state without the downsides that inevitably come with it. Form follows function, as they say.

So, because I’m a loudmouth crank who absolutely refuses to shut the fuck up about how I think President Mike Pompeo is a fat fuck, or President Josh Hawley looks like a cartoon character, eventually the very abstract “I only care when it becomes personal” red line that my relatives have at the moment about autocracy will grow very concrete: ME.

Because my Traditionalist relatives would not make common cause with people like me when it mattered — before the autocracy was established — I’m going to be fucked. I’m just too much of a loudmouth. I generally don’t follow the rules and because it’s inevitable — unless we have a civil war — that the United States will slide first into illiberal democracy like Hungary then outright autocracy like Russia, I’m going to run afoul of our autocrat.

I’ve made it very clear to my Traditionalist relatives that I refuse to shut the fuck up. They can tell me in hushed tones in private all they want to in 2029 how important it is “for the sake of the family” that I “behave” and not talk ill of the autocracy — fuck Mike Pompeo — but I’m not going to shut up. They had their chance to prevent such a clusterfuck and they sat on their hands.

Anyway, fuck autocracy. Fuck taking any fucking Red Pill. Live free or die, as they say.

Which State Will Start A Second American Civil War?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that so many people miss is the MAGA New Right is ascendant and they have no reason to start a civil war because they’re going to get everything they want via politics. It’s the center-Left, or Blue States, that are going to start a civil war if it comes to that.

And the state that would be most likely to leave the Union and start any process that might cause a Second American Civil War is California. It’s got a huge economy and the biggest population in the Union and if there was so egregious overreach on the part of the MAGA New Right in 2024 – 2025, then California may bounce.

Now, I have to note that it’s just as possible that instead of a mass exit of Blue States out of the Union…there may be a mass exit of center-Left individuals who vote with their feet when the time comes. Whenever I bring this up to my Traditionalist relatives, they get upset at what they feel is the suggestion that Red States aren’t as economically productive as Blue States.

They refuse to see Red States in any negative light to the point that they are, for the moment at least, glad to see a multitude of highly skilled center-Left people leave the country, even if it’s to the severe detriment of the nation. We’re so absolutely divided that everything is seen as a zero sum game by the MAGA New Right.

They’re always right. They never do anything wrong. And if you point to cold, hard facts that do, in fact, put them in a negative light they just get angry and tell you the facts you pointed out are “bogus.”

So, as I keep saying, we’re careening towards civil war or autocracy. And I still don’t know which option America is going to choose. It really could go either way. And, as I keep saying, the choice is likely to finally be made for tactical political reasons at some point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

But I can’t predict the future. I don’t know what’s going to happen. But all I know is the United States is running on political fumes. Something’s gotta give and if there’s a civil war, it’s probably going to start when California gets fed up with the power-hungry nature of the MAGA New Right and attempts to leave the Union.

Glenn Youngkin & Virginia’s Dark Political Future


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus, is Virginia fucked. The problem with Virginia is it’s microcosm of America as a whole. The rural, Red parts of the state long for autocracy, while the urban Blue parts continue to believe in the democratic process. The dark part of all of this is the United States is now an anocracy and in 2024 – 2025 we’re going to face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

Given that by definition to be a Republican is to be a fascist, when the time comes and Virginia has to pick a side — say, in the case of California leaving the Union — the state is probably going to implode. There could be a coup of some sort and Gov. Youngkin will be forced to decamp to a more conservative part of the state. The historian in me says of course he will flee to Danville, since it’s the Last Capitol of The Confederacy.

But it was inevitable that a fascist GQP Republican would win in Virginia. That’s the weakness of a democracy that’s transitioned into an anocracy. You have elections, so the “bad guys” are going to win eventually. And all they have to do is win ONE election and they just never leave power.

So that’s where we’re at with Gov. Youngkin. He’s going to tear Virginia apart as the years progress. And, ultimately, either he becomes a GQP goon in autocratic America, or the wholes state collapses in on itself with no obvious end game.

I honestly don’t know which direction the state will go.

A Great Reset


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s my personal conviction that if Russia attacks Ukraine in a big, historic manner this winter that it will mark the end of the post-World War 2 liberal order. The one that millions died for between the years 1937 and 1945. I say this because it would be the first time since 1945 when there was a war this big in somewhere as important as Europe.

There have been a number of invasions — most of them by the Soviets — during the Cold War — but they would be relatively limited compared to the damage that a war between Russia and Ukraine would cause. There would be refugees in the 100,000s and causalities in the 10,000s. It’s possible that Russia might set off a series of events within Ukraine that go far beyond anything they believe possible.

It’s within the realm of possibility that Ukraine might simply collapse into mass chaos. Far Right nationalists could spring up, powered by pure, white hot irredentism. What’s more, the United States is so mind-bogglingly divided at the moment that no matter what happened between Russia and Ukraine, once the war started China could very well be emboldened enough to attack Taiwan in the next few years (months?)

The most disturbing element of all of this is how, because of long term macro trends, the United States ship of state is sinking and sinking fast. Something big is going to happen to the United States between now and, say, January 2025 and there’s nothing we can do to stop it. Everything is in place and nothing is going to fix the systemic issues that will cause the United States to either slide into autocracy or have a massive, tragic civil war.

A Russo-Ukrainian War would just be the beginning of an epic, historic era of instability not seen since the inter-war period of 1918 – 1939. With the United States careening towards a dark, unstable future and the Russians having eaten a huge chunk of Ukraine, it could be open season across the globe in ways we’ve not seen in generations.

Take, for instance, the DPRK. The last few days have seen some ominous statements come out of Pyongyang. What happens if, in the middle of a Russo-Ukrainian War, the DPRK begins to saber rattle by shooting off ICBMs and testing H-bombs? That would only add to the global sense of chaos and instability.

And, remember, if two major regional wars were happening at the same time — Russia / Ukraine and China / Taiwan — it would be very hard for the American press to resist the temptation to brand it all World War 3. What’s more, as I mentioned, the United States is careening towards either autocracy or civil war no later than January 2025.

So. Enjoy these twilight days of stability. Things could get pretty lit pretty quick. Maybe within a few days.