Month: July 2021

Another Spooky Tik-Tok Experience


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Yesterday, I was listening to “Born in The USA” by Bruce Springsteen on Spotify and for a moment, I weighed the significance of the song in American politics over the years.

Well, guess what — just now I was using Tik-Tok and, lo and behold I was pushed a video that posed that very same question: “Is Born In The USA a patriotic song?”

Spooky.

Now, the case can be made that this one is pretty easy — Tik-Tok simply monitored my listening to Springsteen in general and pushed that particular video for that reason. What makes this spooky is that the video itself was about the specific thing I thought about, literally.

But, as always, I’m reluctant to believe that Tik-Tok can literally read my mind. In this specific instance there is a non-kooky explanation — Tik-Tok knew in general that I was listening to Bruce on Spotify and it just so happened that the video about him was about the very subject I listened to. The nature of Born In The USA is pretty mainsteam.

It’s still pretty spooky and intrusive, no matter how Tik-Tok figured it out.

MAGA & The Rise Of ‘Lite Touch’ Autocracy In The United States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about my interaction with my conservative relatives is, they grade Trump and MAGA on such a massive curve that during the Trump Era it was only when something autocratic in a concrete happened that they noticed or cared. And, even then, some of them got so upset by having to admit that Trump did Something Wrong that they negated my ability to pin them down on the matter. The other conservative relatives in my life, meanwhile, simply lulzed the “cruelty is the point” nature of MAGA and saw it as a means to an end.

This gets me thinking about what happens should we peacefully drifted into an autocracy. This will probably happen when it simply becomes conventional political wisdom that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if Democrats also control Congress. This will never happen for the Democratic Party, of course, because of Republican gerrymandering and voter suppression.

Now, the thing I’ve noticed about talking to my conservative relatives is there is a finite window where you can make them squirm about some excess on the part of MAGA. It’s the time between when some horrible thing has been exposed about MAGA and when the Right wing echo chamber has pulled talking points out of their ass. Once the talking points exist, the whole thing is a lulz. The goal posts are moved and we move on to the next crisis.

The question for me is, what happens when we are an autocracy and some of the darker things I worry about — like the media being purged and the existing ICE infracture being weaponized by President Pompeo or President Cotton (etc, etc?)

There are two major answers to this question. One is, for a long time, these dark fears won’t be realized. Once MAGA has established their autocracy, there will be a “lite touch” autocracy where for the average person, nothing will have changed other than everyone will stop voting because they know Republicans have an absolute lock on the political system. So, when I get really angry about how we’re an autocracy with my conservative relatives, they will fall back to their existing position of, “But did you die?” In other words — this is the New Normal and, I like it, fuck you, lib.

The other option is, after a few years of “lite touch” autocracy, President Pompeo (or whomever) will grow power hungry and do the very things I’m worried about. Probably how this will happen is MAGA will finally get the Constitutional Convention it craves so bad. That will be the final gasp of American liberty and then we will finally be a white Christian ethno state.

Then we reach the Good German Era. When I start worrying about the very real possibility of being snatched off the street by ICE for refusing to shut up about what a fucking cocksucker President Pompeo is, they’ll pull me aside and say, “Look, for the sake of the family you need to be quiet.”

I’ve already said very explicitly that I’d rather be turned in than be quiet.

I have no idea what’s going to happen in the future. But I do know we had all better enjoy this twilight of political calm we’re currently living through.

The Anglophone Crisis Of The 21 Century


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Roman Empire had its Crisis of The Third Century and it appears as though the Anglophone world has it’s own political crisis in the 21 Century. Three of the five major English speaking democracies currently have very fucked up political systems. Two out of the five — the United States and Great Britain — definitely seem to be careening towards some sot of potential breakup.

If I was smarter — and, maybe, wrote for Vox or Foreign Affairs — I could give you a lengthy explanation of why this is the case. But I’m just some hayseed rube in the rural part of a flyover state, so lulz, I don’t know. I have no idea what is wrong with Australia, but I do have some sense of what’s wrong with the UK and especially the US.

The UK’s problem seems just as existential as the problems the United States faces. The UK is pretty much the lone multi-ethnic state in Europe and it current has a very late Austro-Hungarian Empire vibe to it. It’s very easy to imagine the country breaking up into its constituent states and that will be that.

The US, meanwhile, is a bit more complicated. The US has the choice of autocracy or civil war before it and we just haven’t gotten to the point in that particular process where I can game out which one is going to happen. I have the general sense that the US is going to drift peacefully into some sort of “lite touch” autocracy until we elect an autocrat who is a bit too power hungry for their own good and then we either have a popular revolt or things get really, really dark.

Anyway, the point is — outside of New Zealand and Canada, the entire Anglophone world is in far more turmoil than one might think. The English speaking world is in a simmering, long-term political crisis with no ready solution.

The US and the UK, specifically, are in serious trouble. All I can say is the next few years may be far, far more dramatic on a geopolitical level than we could possibly imagine.

Why Does Everyone Think America’s Going To Have A Civil War Soon?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Almost all this blog’s traffic comes from people who think the United States is on the cusp of a modern civil war. The question is, of course, why is this? Why do a growing number of people think that American are going to start killing each other for political reasons?

There’s a lot going on with this subject. Some of it is the established glorification of violence found in the Far Right is becoming more and more mainstream. It’s drifting mainstream because MAGA is now a violent personality cult and they no longer see our traditional democracy as legitimate unless they win. Even though there are a lot of conservatives who don’t see themselves as either MAGA or fascist, they definitely know watered down versions of the talking points found within MAGA fascist circles. These conservatives can be so oblivious to this to the point that they get very offended if you reference the obvious source of this bullshit: Fox News.

Another thing going on is the abstract fears that a lot of conservatives have about what’s going on in the United States right now is so potent, so all powerful that a lot of them start to game out the endgame of Cancel Culture or Critical Race Theory or whatever bullshit of the month MAGA thought leaders have come up with.

This leads them to think, in abstract terms: civil war.

It’s the worst possible thing they can think of, but they don’t even know what it would mean in real terms. Now, obviously, there are some actual violent people within the MAGA movement who know damn well what a civil war would be like. But, for the average conservative in fear of going viral for some casual racially tone deaf statement, the idea of a “civil war” is something they think of when pressed by their buddies about what will happen if Cancel Culture isn’t outlawed. “Well, we’ll have a civil war.”

But all this civil war on the brain is definitely a bad sign in general because it gives a sense of the general direction of American politics. For a lot of people, even in abstract terms, to think of political violence as a viable option for solving the country’s problems Is Not A Good Sign.

Our fate in most of the scenarios I run in my mind about a civil war rests on MAGA state legislatures. If they take Trump both seriously and literally about being “reinstated” after Cyber Ninjas “prove” that he “won” the state, then, well, we’re pretty fucked. That would be the conditions for some sort of secession crisis between Trumplandia and the United States.

And, yet, I dunno.

For the moment, all of this civil war talk is just that — talk. It’s all very nebulous and I still don’t know which direction it will go.

Cyber Ninjas’ ‘Recount’ Of The Arizona Vote Is Extremely Unnerving


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something smells in the state of Arizona. It definitely seems as though Cyber Ninjas is doing everything in its power to get to the result it wants with its “audit:” Trump really won the state.

Now, there’s a lot to unpack with this.

One one hand, the whole endeavor is obviously bullshit. It’s meaningless “gesture politics” meant to give the faithful a talking point on Twitter. That’s it. And, yet, there is a risk that one of two things will happen — either Trump demands other states that he lost fair and square do the same thing or he really goes nuts and doesn’t even wait for that to happen. Trump seizes upon his dubious Arizona “win” and demands he be “reinstated” ASAP.

Then we have the same dynamic as January 6th, but on a national scale. If the first option happens, then just around election day 2022, half of the country will think there is “proof” that Trump is really POTUS. He becomes Speaker when the House flips and Speaker Trump has one goal — impeaching of Biden and Harris. He goes transactional, there’s massive political violence in 2023 and, Democrats in the Senate buckle because they don’t want a civil war. Trump is back in office in 2023 and we become an autocracy.

The other option goes like this — Trump gets his “win” in Arizona and freaks the fuck out just because of that one state. He demands that MAGA state legislatures “nullify” the Biden Administration. This quickly turns into a secession crisis and we have a civil war at some point between about now and, say, January 2022.

And, yet, both of those options, on the face of it, sound rather fantastical even to me. There is a lot I just can’t game out. I have no idea if anyone would actually listen to Trump if he went transactional about being “reinstated.” At the moment, Trump definitely seems politically dead in the water outside of the entire Republican bullshit echo chamber. But given the fact that the Republican Party is now a violent personality cult and, well, lulz. Who knows.

I don’t have any answers on this front. Just unease.

Historical Determinism Suggests The United States Is Fucked One Way Or Another


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is fucked. In the future, the events that led to Biden winning the presidency may be seen as having huge significance on the broad sweep of political history. The reason is — but for Biden winning in 2020, the United States was well on its way to becoming an autocracy. What would have likely happened is Trump wouldn’t have made it through his second term — he is old as fuck, you know — and after a caretaker Pence administration a real American autocrat would have taken power.

Or, put another way, at some point in his second term, Trump would have demanded a Constitutional Convention and would have been allowed to run for a third term. It would actually be his THIRD term that he wouldn’t make it through and Trump’s new veep Mike Flynn (or whomever) would be the one to seize “total control” and turn the United States into Trumplandia.

But none of that happened.

So, as I keep saying, the United States right now is an autocracy without an autocrat. All the conditions are there for an autocracy, but Biden is a pretty modern, norm-following president so he doesn’t flip a switch and get ICE to push me out of a window.

But this idyllic political situation isn’t going to last forever. There’s going to come a point where we face an existential choice of civil war or autocracy. When Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton or Josh Hawley inevitably becomes president and we have one last gasp of traditional democracy in America do we “bow before lord Zod” or do we have a civil war?

For the moment, I think we’re just going to drift peacefully into autocracy. When it happens, a lot of thought leaders on the Left are going to scream bloody murder, but the average person won’t even notice any change in their every day life. Then, in fits an starts, it will become conventional wisdom that you have to be careful what you say or you’ll get snatched by ICE. Or whatever.

Within a generation, the United States will be a nation of “blood and soil” and Good Americans will keep their heads down and enjoy the tax cuts and really fucking conservative Federal bench that ensures that they will never, ever be “canceled.”

I think this because any kind of civil war in the United States would be so scary and horrific that the Powers That Be have every reason to just tell everyone to accept the New Normal of living in an autocracy. It would require MAGA somehow bungling the transition to autocracy for any civil war to happen.

I could see, maybe, this transition bungle happening sooner rather than later if Trump flips out should Cyber Ninjas “prove” he “won” Arizona. That might cause a mini-civil war that is quickly ended because, lulz, MAGA will have struck too soon.

Anyway. What do I know.

Mulling Places To Take My Writer’s Retreat



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s July 4th weekend and I have four novel outlines to flesh out before I start writing again sometime early next week. I like to take the occasional personal writer’s retreat to distract myself while I try to figure out major problems with the novel(s) I’m working on. Here are my options at the moment.

New York City
This would be ideal, but it’s just not practical to do very often given where I am right now. I can still do it, but it’s a serious pain in the butt. So, no.
Charlottesville
I go to this option all the time and I’m looking for somewhere different. I actually have a bit extra money than usual — but less time — so it’s unlikely I’ll go to this option.
Washington, DC
This may be the sweetspot option because it’s not too far, it’s interesting and I can probably afford just one night. I don’t know how much I want to go through all that traffic — especially on July 4th weekend — so, I don’t know. All I’m going to do is just chill out for about 24 hours. I would prefer to just find somewhere quiet, low stress and stare at the ceiling for a few hours while I have a slight buzz.
Myrtle Beach
This would be cool. It’s the perfect distance and probably would be fairly low stress, but given that it’s the July 4th weekend, it’s probably extremely expensive and / or sold out for the weekend, anyway.
Somewhere Vaguely West Of Me
It would be fun, on an abstract basis, to just head west and see what happened. But, in all honesty, there isn’t a lot going on west of me, at least until I run into another state.
Somewhere Vaguely South Of Me
This is appealing. There are a number of smaller places south of me that might fit my needs — cheap, nearby and low stress.

I still don’t know what I’m going to do.

The Curious Appeal Of Joe Rogan


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ah, Joe Rogan. The thing about Rogan is how he’s a representation of the hypermodern media landscape. Rogan believes he can say anything as long as he hides behind his earnest masculinity. He’s appealing to a lot of young men who feel unrepresented and disenfranchise.

For the most part he, himself, is harmless. He’s a decent interviewer and I do find him often interesting in what he has to say. But. And there’s a big but, there’s a meta element to his popularity that is downright sinister. And that meta element is he is a gateway to the Alt Right and Incel movements in the sense that a lot of young men start the path to radicalization by watching his show.

It’s not really Rogan’s fault that this is the case. And if the United States wasn’t tearing itself a part at the moment, the whole thing would be a lulz. What I find the most irritating about Rogan is often frames his arguments in such a way that you feel like an idiot if you don’t agree with what are essentially alt-Right talking points.

Thankfully, Rogan has no (apparent) desire to run for office. He, like Tucker Carlson have all the makings of a popular modern politician. The larger point is our democracy is undead. The era we live in is the last gasp of traditional American democracy before we either turn into an autocracy or we have a civil war.

There are no easy answers.

America’s Politics: A Status Check


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Some rando on Twitter told me to “calm down” today after I said my usual thing about how America faces the choice of autocracy or civil war in the near, near term.

Let’s do a back of the envelope status check on American politics. I’m not getting paid to do this and the people of VOX think I’m a crank, so lulz, you get what you pay for.

What makes doing this so difficult is, while in general terms I know we’re fucked, those fears a pretty much abstract. Going forward, it’s difficult to figure out what is important and what isn’t. But let’s have a go.

The first thing that comes to the forefront of my mind is the Republican Party is now fascist. It has been completely consumed by the rancid populism of MAGA. The Republican Party is dead and now is the Trump Party in everything but name. It has no ideology other than what whatever Trump wants at any particular moment.

As such, the question is, will it be Trump or one of his would-be successors who push us to the breaking point where we face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. For the time being, Trump is in complete control of the Republican Party and any success or failure the party has in its objectives will be the direct result of Trump’s personal ability to achieve those goals. So, it’s easy to imagine a situation where Trump being lazy and stupid is handed power AGAIN through some sort of nullification crisis in January 2025 and he’s just too stupid to shepherd the country peacefully through what would otherwise be an inevitable transition to autocracy.

So, we have a civil war and bomb each other into oblivion because MAGA can’t bear to even think of the word “liberal.” Who wins in that situation, I have no idea.

If it’s not Trump, but someone like Tom Cotton, Mike Pompeo or Josh Hawley, then I doubt we’ll have a civil war because they’re politically adept enough to avoid one. The media will be purged, ICE’s camp infrastructure weaponized and I get pushed out a window because I refuse to fucking shut up about how much I fucking hate MAGA.

There are other things floating around our undead political system that are unnerving. The glorification of political violence by MAGA along with the rise of paramilitary groups is not exactly the sign of a healthy political system. The interesting thing about this is Trump — to date — hasn’t had the guts to go transactional. So, in that regard, Trump is definitely no Hitler. What Trump loves to do is dog whistle violent acts that he would like, but he simply has never been direct about it.

But if, say, Cyber Ninjas gets his hopes up by “proving” he “won” Arizona, that might change. He might go transactional and tell MAGA’s paramilitary arm to start doing specific things to facilitate his “reinstatement.” Or not. It’s possible he’ll continue to be a big old wussy (on a political basis.)

Yet, the issue is, what does this mean going forward? Do I need to “calm down” or am I right that we face an existential choice of autocracy or civil war at some point between now and January 2025.

Nothing is set in stone, however. It’s possible that we’ll drift into some sort of “lite touch” autocracy where it’s just Conventional Wisdom that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if Democrats also control Congress. Liberals will vent in the media while MAGA welds hard power and that will be that for a few cycles until someone like President Mike Pompeo finally has had enough and goes full autocrat because there’s no one to stop him anymore.

2012: The Year Everything Changed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be that there were all these predictions about how the Mayan calendar predicted the End Of The World in 2012 for some reason. Well, that obviously didn’t happen, but something did happen – 2012 was the year that white people in America began to reach a tipping point with their abstract fears about the changing nature of the country.

So, let’s think about what, exactly, happened in 2012 that caused the political hellscape that we currently enjoy. The most obvious thing is, duh, Obama won a second term. And I think the reason why there was a cascading effect from that event was a lot of Republicans thought Obama was some sort of political fluke caused by the perfect timing of the Great Recession right before the 2008 election.

When it became clear that Obama was actually the first wave of what everyone knew was coming — the advent of America being a minority majority nation, a lot of white people freaked the fuck out. It was the 2012 election that was the last election where Republicans were willing to work within the democratic norms that we all have come to enjoy for the last 240 odd years.

Something about what happened in Obama’s second term facilitated the rise of Trump, MAGA and the Republican Party becoming fascist. It was the high speed social transformation of Obama’s second term that really caused the Republican Party to pretty much be accurately represented by Trump.

If I was, like, smart and stuff, I would be able to give you a itemized deep dive of the specific events that caused conservative white people to freak out and fall into the arms of ding-dong Trump. But, I’m not that smart — and, as such, will never write for VOX, natch.

But it is curious. I think what may have happened is at some point between 2012 and 2016 Republicans realized they had lost the culture wars and, as such, they had to strike back with someone who was a “fighter.” After that happened, the rest took care of itself. Trump was a deranged lunatic, but the Establishment eventually realized he was not only hugely popular with the base, but he could win the 2016 election. So they lulzed everything for young hack MAGA judges and a plutocrat tax cut.

I love alternative history, so I often struggle to think up a way whereby we could have avoided the rise of MAGA and Trump. All I can think up is Al Gore winning the 2000 election. Even then, Obama is such a singular figure in our nation’s political history that it’s easy to imagine him winning anyway and causing MAGA to arise in response.

If you read the book The Fourth Turning, you would say that Someone Like Trump was going to pop up at some point between 2016 and, say, 2024. The demographic trends were going to cause someone like Obama to get elected and then, in turn, someone like Trump would get elected in reaction.

One last thing I think we don’t really appricate is how the introduction of the iPhone may have also sealed our fate. Once social media was no longer tied to our PCs, then things like “cancel culture” and the mainlining of things once seen as freaky was going to happen one way or another.

Anyway, the ultimate end game of this clusterfuck is a complete mystery to me. I have no idea what happens. I do know, however, that we’re going to face a choice of either MAGA autocracy or a civil war. Which one we will pick, I don’t know for the time being.