Jesus, I Hope I’m Wrong

by Shelt Garner

It definitely seems as though the United States is careening towards autocracy or civil war starting at some point around late 2024, early 2025. My thinking is –we just aren’t going to make it through the passions of the 2024 presidential election cycle.

When your best case scenario if your country slides peacefully into autocracy, you’re definitely in a “Not great, Bob,” situation. But that’s where we are at the moment. I just don’t see the United States being able to punt the structural problems of our democracy down the road anymore.

Late 2024, early 2025 is it — Something Big is going to happen.

It could be as dramatic as civil war, or it could be something far more subtle where someone like a President DeSantis becomes America’s Putin and we are an autocracy in all but name. What I mean by this is, it’s possible that we could become a zombie democracy, with the only indication of anything having changed be how many smug Twitter liberals now live outside the country to do their smug podcasts.

We’ll all wake up in 20 years and wonder why Canada is being invaded to “save it from the woke cancel culture mob.”


But there is, of course, the far darker scenario — there is a National Divorce with either the Reds leaving the Union or the Blues leaving the Union. I don’t want either one of those things to happen, but it’s something we have to start taking seriously.

It could happen. It really could.

But who knows. It’s still too far out for us — or at least me — to get some sense of what might actually happen. One scenario is Reds leave the Union instead of Blues because Trump doesn’t get the GQP nomination and when he splits the conservative vote he freaks out and demands Red states leave the Union because he’s an idiot, not realizing they want to take him up on it.

Anyway. God good luck, folks. You may very well need it.

Is 2023 a New 1788?

by Shelt Garner

As I grow more and more alarmed about what is going to happen in late 2024, early 2025, I think I’m going to add more books about the French Revolution to books that I buy then wait years to read.

It seems to me that because of income inequality, the United States may burst into civil war and revolution as part of the 2024 presidential cycle. And, honestly, sometimes I think it’s just a matter if its Blues or Reds who are going to be the ones who get fed up and bolt the Union. (Spoiler Alert: it will probably be Blues.)

But the United States is so huge, diverse and powerful that if we collapse into civil war and or revolution, it will one of the biggest events not just in American history — but human history. The only thing I can compare it to would be the 1789 – 1799 French Revolution combined with the American Civil War.

The world really will be turned upside down if the United States should buckle – it probably would prompted WW3. The entire global order would be thrown up in the air until everything was sorted out one way or another. And just because Blues might leave the Union to start their own center-Left nation doesn’t mean that there wouldn’t be mission creep and, ultimately, there would be a global conflagration that would totally re-arrange the entire global framework.

But, before I go down that hysterical path TOO much, remember — I’m always wrong. I think, in the end, that DeSantis will be elected and initially, any changes in the United States will be rather subtle. It won’t be until 20 years of DeSantis consolidating power that we’ll endup invading Canada to overthrow the “woke cancel culture mob” there.

Or, put another way — I’m probably full of shit and why are you even listening to me at all? Wink.

‘Cry, The Beloved Country’

by Shelt Garner

Well, it’s time for me to redouble my reading about the rise of the Nazis in Germany. My Traditionalist relatives — who I love dearly — totally lulzed the idea it’s possible my fears about bloggers such as myself being forced to register with the government.

So, I think my alarm over MAGA being American Nazism is valid. I’ve found myself reading a lot more about history — especially the Nazis — and Great Men. I need to understand how to live through what could be Very Interesting Times starting sometime between now and, say, spring 2025.

What do I think is going to happen?

I honestly don’t know. Maybe nothing is going to happen. I’m always wrong, afterall.

But the idea that my conservative relatives would not realize that I, personally, could run afoul of our new American Autocrat, whomever that may be. I’ve long suggested that my Traditionalist relatives have one Red Line — ME.

And, yet, given how much they are lulzing the prospect of me NOT being a Good German ike them, I definitely seems like I may be on my own when the crisis strikes.

I have to prepare myself for either going underground once we’re an autocracy, or I’m going to become a domestic political refugee. If it’s the latter, then, I suppose it’s possible that I might be able to make a name for myself within Blue ranks.

That sounds rather delusional at this point, but in times of civil war and revolution, strange, unexpected things are known to happen.

Fuck Florida & Ron DeSantis: Slouching Towards Autocracy

by Shelt Garner

I’m well aware that just because a state lawmaker thinks up a bill, doesn’t mean it will ever become law. But given how of American politics runs on “vibes” these days, I think it’s only fair that I can grow alarmed about the following bill proposed in the Florida legislature.

If this bill became law, then bloggers who wrote about state officials would have to register with the government. It’s not so much the law itself as the mentality behind it that alarms me. It definitely gives us some sense of how much MAGA loves autocracy and if Florida Governor Ron DeSantis becomes POTUS, there’s every reason to believe he will be receptive to some sort of law similar to this on the national level.

He’ll rationalize it somehow, but somehow, someway, it’s possible that at some point starting in 2025, bloggers like me will have to register with the government.

I am not going to do this, whatever the consequences.

I’m prepared to go to jail. Be sent to a camp. Whatever. I. Am. Not. Going. To. Abide. By. A. Law. Like. This.

Whatever the consequences.

‘What Is A Woman?” — Campaign 2024 & The Looming Political War Over Chatbot ‘Bias’

by Shelt Garner

The modern Republican Party is completely devoid of any meaningful policy ideas. All they care about is scaring their white Christian (male) base with scary things that have little, or no, basis in reality.

It all boils down to racism, misogyny and hate generated by a combination of the browning of America and the rise of women with growing economic agency. I call this American democracy’s “death by vibes.” White men don’t really know why they’re so angry, but they are.

So, to me, it seems pretty obvious that perceived chatbot “bias” will join the pantheon of bullshit that the “thought leaders” of MAGA fascist movement spew out. They are, at some point, going to pivot away from “critical race theory” to going totally batshit insane over the fact that things like ChatGPT don’t give them the answer they want when they ask it, “What is a woman?”

Now, I have to pause for a moment to say that the “woke cancel culture mob” continues to do itself no favors by having such a strict orthodoxy about some touchy issues. If they would just fucking chill out about some of the more extreme elements of the Trans movement or not get so angry over the fact that some God-fearing people blanch at the idea of “Drag Queen Story Hour” then maybe Traditionalists wouldn’t want to vote for fascism when they did a “vibe check” in their gut.

Alas, even I will admit that I fear I’m being delusional — that ship has sailed. We’re totally fucked. The two sides now both have “thought leaders” who feel they have a vested interest in demagoguing issues as part of an overall grift. The Right has a far more serious problem with such hucksterism, but the Left is not totally immune to it.

In my experience, the Left’s problem is a very strict Groupthink where there is an orthodoxy that Leftists will adhere to, even if it means they drive Traditionalists into the arms of fascists. It’s too late — these issues are going to be decided either via a civil war or a complete and final decent into fascism in the United States.

Anyway, get ready. People like MGT will soon enough begin to demand some sort of regulation of chatbot technology to protect the tender minds of young children who turn to chatbot technology to do their homework. And that could very well be just the beginning.

It could be, in the end, Trump or a President DeSantis demands that chatbots are purged of their “wokeness” to the point that all chatbots do is spew out fucking MAGA-approved talking points, no matter what you ask it.

The Right has a real problem with being so obsessed with defeating the “woke cancel culture mob” that they have something akin to an “anti-woke” orthodoxy of their own. The different is, of course, is fucking MAGA wants to use the hard power of the state to implement their fascist, anti-woke agenda.

Endgame 2025: Managed Democracy

by Shelt Garner

While I continue to vacillate widely between thinking we’re going to have a civil war in late 2024, early 2025 and thinking we’re going to simply give up and become an autocracy, I see clear path towards the latter at the moment. Given what happened to the Roman Republic, I think there is a really good chance we’ll become a zombie democracy.

Or, put another way, if we’re able to avoid a civil war as part of the next election cycle, it seems logical that we’ll continue to ostensibly be a democracy but, in reality be anything but. We’ll become a legalistic, autocratic “managed democracy” like they have in Russia. A lot of how this goes down exactly will depend on if it’s Trump or DeSantis who is the GQP’s 2024 presidential nominee.

If it’s Trump, then, lulz, the possibility of the United States having a civil war grows significantly. If it’s DeSantis, then, yeah, we’ll probably lurch towards a few presidential cycles where we all think we’re a democracy, but, in fact, we’ve finally transitioned into autocracy. I just don’t see DeSantis ever peacefully leaving office.

He’ll pull a Putin and be POTUS for eight years, then become Speaker of the House and be the power behind the throne until he gets around to having enough power to call a Constitutional Convention. All of this would be happening in the context of millions of smug Twitter liberals fleeing the country for the four corners of the globe.

Our current political situation is very unstable and untenable. Something’s gotta give. This is very much the quiet before the storm. And as I keep saying, the only thing that really worries me is America’s original sin, race. It’s because of race that I could see us zooming past Russia’s form autocracy into something a lot closer to Nazi Germany.

The Appeal of ‘The Fourth Turning’

by Shelt Garner

While I believe the historical concepts posited by the book The Fourth Turning to be nothing more than astrology for men who listen to Joe Rogan, I definitely get why the some people have really bought into the idea. I occasionally find myself walking around, say, buying groceries, when I think about what it would be like to walk into the store in the middle of a civil war.

I imagine some day in the near future where I’m scavenging for what food I can find in a trashed and ransacked store. I think this because I see how, on a macro level, the conditions for a Fourth Turning or Great Reset are floating around. I was alarmed to see a young man wearing a shirt advocating extreme guns rights.

I was reminded of how America is cleaving into two waring camps, one Red, one Blue. The issue is, of course, will we manage to muddle through this particular problem like we have since 1865 or if we’re going to implode into a Second American Civil War.

The idea that there is such a thing as a “Fourth Turning” plays into how a lot of other people are seeing what I’m seeing. The human mind is designed to see patterns and, as such, the idea that there is a regular pattern to history “feels true” and we use it as some comfort that the world around us isn’t as completely random as we fear.

But, as alas, the world, in general, really is random. Even the writers of The Fourth Turning admit that their all-powerful theory doesn’t explain why the American Civil War happened when it did. A charitable explanation would be a few Wig presidents died and, as such, the Civil War happened earlier than it might have happened according to the book’s historical dictate.

Or, you could say that the whole thing is bullshit and the authors of The Fourth Turning are giving meaning to the pretty meaningless ebb and flow of macro historical forces. We know the general movement of those forces, but we don’t know their destination. The interaction between Great Men (and Women) and macro historical forces is what makes it impossible in real terms for anyone — least of all the authors of The Fourth Turning — to predict what the fuck is going to happen.

The key thing when thinking about a Fourth Turning in the United States is it actually possible that Blue States, when faced with the prospect of being forced to “bend a knee” to autocratic MAGA fascism will actually be willing to secede from the Union? That is pretty much the whole shebang when it comes to how likely a civil war is anytime soon.

Given how politically ascendant they are, there really isn’t much reason for Red States to leave the Union. If it happens, it’s going to be Blue States. But I’m always wrong. Aways. So, as such, I think we’ll just muddle through and gradually transition into some sort of legalistic autocratic fascism like they have in Russia at the moment.

The only thing I worry about is America’s original sin, race. If the United States turns into an autocratic fascist state, there is every reason to believe it’s very possible we may zoom past Russia and turn into a Very American Fourth Reich. But I still don’t know — it could go either way at the moment.

Sometimes, The ‘Woke Cancel Culture Mob’ Is Full Of Shit

by Shelt Garner

I’m far more anti-MAGA than Leftist and, as such, sometimes I’m aghast at the hot takes emanating from “cultural Leftists” who Right wing nutjobs would call the “woke cancel culture mob.”

All of this is happening in the context of the United States cleaving into two nations, one Blue, one Red. Usually, Leftist bullshit is a rationalization for why some of the more extreme behavior of going on within Blue circles is a lulz. All of this is very corrosive because it makes it way too easy for my Traditionalists relatives to lean into the extensive permission structure surrounding supporting American fascism.

Everything from “drag queen story hour” for little kids to men wearing skirts is dismissed by the Left as something we all must accept without any question. It’s that inflexible orthodoxy that alarms me because it allows Traditionalists, the bedrock of any functioning democracy to “both sides” things to the point that when the time comes they will willingly vote to give up their American democratic birthright.

I am growing more and more concerned that Something Big is going to happen in late 2024 — early 2025 between Election Day and Certification Day. All the conditions are there there to be a National Divorce which will, in turn cause a Second American Civil War.

Of course, it will only be hindsight that we will look back and go, “Well, OBVIOUSLY there was going to be a 2ACW.” Some of what Leftists cling to so tightly is just dumb. While gender has always been a fluid thing over the generations, everything is happening so fucking fast these days that I continue to fear that 2024 – 2025 could see autocracy, civil war or military junta.

But these are macro issues. I still believe it all boils down to income inequality. One might make the case that the current crisis of masculinity that we’re experiencing in the Western world is pretty much the result of how difficult it is for men to get a good education and, as such, a good enough job that they are seen as valid mates for women who are growing in economic freedom.

One thing I struggle with is the rise of “hot lesbians.” I am well aware that on a basic level women are by default bi-sexual. My own theory on this is that the biological imperative is so absolute when it comes to raising babies that evolution would go so far as to want women to have sex with other women if that ensures that children have a loving home and support.

That’s probably delusional bullshit on my part, but it definitely makes a lot of sense. To me, there is a connection between “hot lesbians” like the singer Fletcher and the model Cara Delevingne and the fact that women demand some very specific metrics when it comes to sperm donors.

Fletcher and Miley Cyrus

Growing numbers of modern women are tired of the bullshit of broke fuckboys and they would rather be treated right by another woman. And since there is little or no taboo surrounding lesbianism (especially among elites) an eye-popping number of traditionally attractive women just don’t find their male counterparts all that attractive.

All of this spooks Traditionalists who see any form of homosexulaity as a “sin.” So, as such, the rest takes care of itself. People like fucking fascist Ron DeSantis demagogue the “gay agenda” of the “woke cancel culture mob” in an effort to goose the base and get votes.

Again, these are macro issues, things beyond the control of any one individual. And to my mind, it all comes to a head in late 2024, early 2025. There is, of course, the possibility that I’m wrong and we’ll punt all these structural problems down the road one more election cycle.

But the conditions are there for something very, very dramatic to happen to the most powerful democracy humanity has ever seen. And, as such, the likely of a “Fourth Turning” or “Great Reset” is real.

No one can predict the future — least of all me –but I am feeling an unease about the next few years.

How Trump Won In 2024

by Shelt Garner

At the moment, Trump is very much a loser joke — which is what Hitler was for much of the 1920s after the failure of the Beerhall Putsch. So, here is how ding-dong Trump wins the 2024 election.

A Debt Celling Debacle
As I grow older, I begin to understand why graybeards are so reluctant to assume that the absolute worst is going to happen. And, yet, we have to take seriously the possibility that MAGA House Republicans are now so extreme that they’re willing to crash the global economy just out of pure spite. If there is a long-feared Debt Celling crisis and we don’t get around to minting a $1 Trillion coin to pay our bills because the House Freedom Caucus stands in the way…oh boy. Are we fucked. If there was a severe global downturn because of the dipshit House Republicans, that would definitely make the average American more receptive to a demagogue like Trump.

Trump Gets Indicted
It goes without saying that if Trump is indicted that he will see a dramatic change in his political fortunes. Combine a Trump indictment with a severe economic downturn and a second Trump Administration definitely seems to be a foregone conclusion.

Petite Singularity Recession
Even if we manage to muddle through a Debt Celling crisis, there is the issue that not only are we way overdue for a moderate-to-severe recession, but something akin to a Petite Singularity might be about to happen when things like ChatGPT 4.0 comes out and its results are “good enough” that your local capitalist pig can lay off as many workers as possible to save money during the contraction.

President Harris
This one really makes me nervous. President Biden is very old. He should not run for re-election, but, lulz, here we are. What’s more, I just don’t have a lot of confidence in Kamala Harris. The worst case scenario would be, of course, that Biden shuffles off this mortal coil at some point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 while we’re in the middle of a severe recession, yikes!

A Patriot Party Promise
It could be that, in the end, there is some sort of brokered Republican Convention and Trump wins the nomination because he vows to bounce to the Patriot Party if he doesn’t get the nod. It seems to me that the key issue for Trump is just to get the nomination. If he gets the nomination, I will be shocked if he doesn’t win again.

The key thing to remember is — if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee, the likelihood of a Second American Civil War increases significantly. It will be Blues, not Reds, who demand a National Divorce.

What The Fuck Is Going On With Tech Bros Becoming Fascist-Friendly?

by Shelt Garner

I’m at a loss as to what’s going on with Tech Bros these days. I find myself listening to the latest episode of the All-In podcast and I find myself extremely perplexed as to how “all in” the Tech Bros of the podcast are when it comes to various shades of fascism.

I thought Tech Bros were all about libertarianism, not working hand-in-hand with the fascist movement to curtail freedoms. But it is very interesting that I can’t help but think of how German Industrialists were “all in” with the Nazis in the 1930s because relative to their economic and financial metrics they felt they were the best choice.

But I will admit that listening to the All-In podcast is great to help me develop rhetorical anti-bodies to fascism and fifth columnists who want us to destroy the post-World War 2 global liberal order so we can dance with Putin and autocratic fascism.

It is also interesting that people like David Sacks use the term “populist” when they really mean “fascism.” The whole situation is very concerning because it’s a sign that fascism continues to be very popular in the United States and is only going to grow even more powerful if we have a Petite Singularity in the context of a moderate-to-severe recession in 2023 – 2024.