Month: December 2021

How The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Might Play Out


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a nobody. I don’t know anything. But I like to run scenarios. And I know enough about what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine to get myself in trouble. So, here goes.

Stage 1
I imagine what would happen is there would be a huge artillery barrage to soften up the front line. The footage of this happening would scare the shit out of the domestic American audience and be the thing that pushed everything else off the front page for a few days (months? forever?)

Stage 2
This is would be make or break for Ukraine. If after 24-48 hours of artillery attack they weren’t able to prove their mettle in the first encounters with the Russians, it’s possible the Russians might make a break for Kiev. The logic would be — capture Kiev and force the Ukrainians to sue for peace. If, however, the Ukrainians do a good job, then, Russians probably will settle for a smash-and-grab operation that has far more modest objectives.

Stage 3
Now we come to the stage where long term, the Russians just can’t win and makes you wonder what the fuck they’re up to. History and human nature tells us that even if the Russians get all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and all of Novorossiya as part of a comprehensive peace treaty after taking Kiev, there’s a good chance that there would be a long term pitched battle on a massive scale. It would be just like Afghanistan in the 80s, only with a huge population in a far more strategic location.

I’m at a loss as to why Putin can’t see the implications of Stage 3. It’s a mystery.

Miley Cyrus Should Reboot Barbarella


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It just occurred to me that there’s one person who could pull off a reboot of the super-campy movie Barbarella that stared Jane Fonda — Miley Cyrus. The two women even look alike.

Anyway, Cyrus has just the right over-the-top vibe to her that she would do a great job. I think she would love doing something so campy.

#Scifi Scenario: How To Colonize A Habitable Earth-Sized Planet Using Existing Technology


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve struggled with the practical aspects of colonizing a habitable planet the size of earth using only existing technology for about a decade now. And I think the key to doing so is to approach it as an economic problem. If you’re trying to unite the planet and avoid the dangers of nationalism, then you create six (or so) holding companies that would serve as modern day versions of the British East India Company.

What do I know.

Whenever trying to settle a planet, you have a number of pretty big issue to contend with. If you look an economic-political-ethnic map of the globe, the earth is not one, but several planets. You have the United States, which is big enough to be its own thing. Then you have “The West” which is rest of the First World. Then, you have China and India as their own things. Then Latin America. This is where things get murky.

Africa doesn’t really fit any specific designation other than “The Third World” because it’s so split up, poor and culturally influenced by its former colonial powers.

Anyway, the point is — with all those different types of human civilizations on earth, how do you get everyone to see themselves as “just human” on a new planet?

I propose you use the United States as the foundation of your global civilization via your global spanning holding companies. Then, later, once everyone is on the same page, you let individual nation-states begin to be established. But, even then, the economics of this new world would be very different than what we assume about earth.

There would be a lot more wealth for everyone to tap in as you built out the new settlement’s economy, which would change the idea of “First World” greatly. The conflict — and potential plot for a novel exploring this scenario — would be how much everyone who wasn’t American would absolutely hate this method of settling a planet.

But, anyway, I keep thinking about this scenario when I want to switch gears from working on four novels.

Better Dead Than … Red … Er … Blue?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I used to think that Republicans have some sort of huge civil war between its MAGA base and the pro-Ukraine Establishment. But, now, oh boy. It appears that what I thought was going to be a civil war may turn out to be more of just a drunken scuffle.

It seems as though the vast majority of Republicans are going to go all-in with their support for Putin. So, should there be a war between Russia and Ukraine the lines of domestic American politics will be pretty clear — Democrats support Ukraine and Republican support Russia.

If that doesn’t make your head spin, I don’t know what will. After 70 years of ranting about how Russia was a threat to the American way, Republicans are going to collectively throw in the towel because of a fail reality TV star. But, as iI keep saying, all of this is the macro trends associated with a declining empire paying themselves out.

Something like this was going to happen the moment Obama won a second term and white people began to freak out about their imminent loss of power within American society. (Something about Obama’s *second* term freaked white people out the way his first term did not.)

So, now, have a potential situation where the vast majority of Republicans side with America’s historic geopolitical adversary because their presumptive 2024 nominee has such a tight bond to the white conservative volk that they can’t dare cross him, even though his support for Putin is comically unseemly.

I honestly don’t know what to tell you. It’s going to be really weird. But that seems to be the direction we’re going. If there are a number of miscalculations across the board, it could be that it’s THAT that costs Republicans Congress in 2022. (Though, let’s be honest, Republicans have so rigged the system at this point that they’re going to win, even if they don’t win. Or, they’re not going to lose, as is always the cause with autocrats.)

It could be that not even something marketed as WW3 can prevent our decent into autocracy or civil war and, in the end, our civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe only makes a bad WW3 situation worse because we’re going to vaporize ourselves into the Stone Age.

Dec 7th — The Day Putin Could Be A Real Dick


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know anything. I’m a nobody. But it seems at least possible that President Biden’s phone call with Putin tomorrow, Dec. 7th, is something of a trap.

Here’s how it would go: the two men have a phone call and it ends. Almost immediately, things begin to change dramatically on the ground in Ukraine. The Russians are in a hurry to attack for some reason.

Joe Rogan would be surprised.

They attack so it’s still Dec. 7th USA time and everyone blames Biden for screwing up the phone call on Dec. 7th, the anniversary of Pearl Harbor.

But that is just one possibility. More likely, the whole thing will be a lulz and we can move on to welcoming 2022.

The Time Is Ripe For The Return Of ‘The Nevermind Man’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The band Garbage is one of my favorites. And, as I understand it, the band is the brain child of Butch Vig. I keep ranting about the need for him to produce someone like Dua Lipa or Olivia Rodrigo or even Taylor Swift, but lulz, no one listens to me.

But I’m frustrated AGAIN and at how bad modern pop music, so you get this. This happens every once in awhile. Something is warping modern pop music to make it so bad. Now, of course, it’s possible that I’m just old. But it is notable that what I feel would otherwise be happening — the return of pop rock in the guise of something akin to NeoNew Wave, isn’t happening.

All I got is rap is sucking up all the male creative energy that would otherwise be giving the momentum to a general pop rock revival? Because rap is far more creative an interesting than anything else going on, the best minds in music gravitate towards listening to and producing rap music instead of the more white-oriented New Wave?

Because right now, there is no organized genre for people who like pop rock. It’s all these little deep echoes of a by gone era that pop out here and there. No one has the guts to put out a Neo New Wave (Rona Rock) album that might fail horrible because it’s too hip for the room.

But if there was one person who could pull it off, at least on the producer side, it’s Butch Vig. Too bad this will never, ever happen.

What’s The Fucking Patriot Front Up To?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Man, oh, man, am I nobody. I got a bum ankle, warm laptop and Internet access. That’s all I got at the moment. But I do have something else — I’m good at scenarios. So, I’m rather alarmed with the recent shenanigans of the fucking paramilitary group The Patriot Front and want to game out what their long term goals may be.

The Patriot Party Flag

I’m not an expert, but I do know enough from what I can see with my own two eyes to figure out some sense of what their danger is. Here’s what we know about them. They are well organized. They work in the shadows and with stealth. They have an infrastructure built out enough to swoop into a hostile Blue city like DC or Philadelphia and get out safely before they get their asses beat.

So, where does that leave us?

It seems as though they are plotting the ability to do some sort of attack in a major city in the Eastern Corridor at the time and place of their choosing. What might trigger such an attack is anyone’s guess. But probably it would be done in the context of the country descending into mass chaos. Although, you make the case that The Patriot Front is auditioning for something akin to the SS, should we become a true autocracy which would find a modern SS quite handy.

Anyway, I’m probably going to write a lot more about this in the future. Stay tuned.

Hey, Olivia Rodrigo, Wanna Change The World?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I only write about this because I’m old and annoyed with modern music. The more I mull Olivia Rodrigo’s music in my mind, the more it seems just one or two ticks away from simply being New Wave. Now, Miley Cyrus has been dabbling in covering New Wave music, but she screams the songs at the top of her lungs, which kind of defeats the purpose.

Olivia Rodrigo / The Internet

The thing about Olivia Rodrigo is, her mental bolts seem to be on a lot more tighter than bonkers Ms. Cyrus, so I could easily see any number of big artists or producers from the late 70s or early 80s working with her to produce a literal New Wave album. Given how popular she is, it could potentially not only be a huge album, it could maybe be the thing to introduce Xenials to the “good music” of my youth.

Or not. No one listens to me.

Well, WW3 Starting Soon Would Be One Way To Prevent America’s Decent Into Autocracy Or Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still smarting over how poorly I predicted the 2020 presidential cycle. So, I keep looking for reasons why my current personal conventional wisdom of us slipping peacefully into autocracy (with a high risk of civil war) could possibly be wrong.

Right now, the only thing I got is WW3.

WW3, which would be a series of major non-nuclear regional wars (Russia – Ukraine, China-Taiwan) happening at the same time, would be the only thing that could potentially give Biden the ooph necessary to get across the finish line fair and square. All other options have either Steve K. Bannon stealing the 2024 election successfully, we simply vote for autocracy with our eyes wide open or we have a civil war.

I’m not saying I want WW3 — it could too easily turn into The Day After type situation — but it is, in fact, one way our democracy might live to fight for at least another four years.

Otherwise, oh boy. Get a passport.

A Major Russian War Against Ukraine Would End The Covid19 Pandemic Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I’m not predicting that people will stop dying of COVID should there be a major war between Russia and Ukraine, I am suggesting that our perception of COVID19 will change dramatically.

But one big caveat — I don’t think there’s going to be a war between the Russians and Ukrainians. Or, at least, not a big one. All of this is just another very expensive power play on Putin’s part to get a summit with Biden. He’s getting that summit on Tuesday and so, lulz, everything should calm down after that.

And, yet, let’s imagine that didn’t happen.

Let’s imagine that a huge war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine. We need to appreciate that it’s possible that COVID19 would go from being seeing a unique pandemic to a regular part of life — or endemic. A lot of this would depend on how big the war was, how long it lasted and what it’s endgame turned out to be.

But there is a finite amount of media attention. If the eyes of the world are on a big chunk of Ukraine being eaten by Russia, it’s inevitable that the sexxy COVID19 pandemic would be seen as simply endemic and something we have to put up with from here on out.

The only way this would change in the future would be if a REALLY BAD new variant of COVID popped out and we were talking about millions, not thousands dying from it at any particular moment.

I guess the whole point of this is — a major regional war in Europe would jiggle everything in a big way. Everything from the January 6th insurrection investigation to all of the other Trump crimes we’re looking into to the COVID19 pandemic would be pushed off the front page in favor of a huge war.

But none of that has happened yet. We’ll have to wait and see if it does.