by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The more I think about it, the more I believe this Union can’t be saved. I hate conflict, hate violence and consider myself a man of peace, a man of ideas. And, yet, I grow more and more alarmed as a center-Left person about the raise of autocratic MAGA Republican fascism in the United States.
So, on paper, there is a very strong case for Blues to serve Reds papers on a National Divorce at some point in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes clear that either Reds are going to steal that election or they’ve won it fair and square and their incoming agenda is simply too radical for Blues to remain in the Union.
But all of this is on paper. I would far rather at least try to figure out some way to punt the ascendant nature of autocratic MAGA fascism down the road a few more election cycles. Yet, I fear late 2024, early 2025 is going to be it — the Fourth Turning, if you’re into that particular astrology for dudes bullshit.
It just seems — on paper, that if Reds finally catch the car, that maybe Blue States should collectively agree to bounce. If Reds want to establish a white Christian ethnostate so bad, then have at it — but without the tax base associated with Blue States.
There are so very many problems with this idea.
I just can’t imagine a scenario where Reds would let Blues leave the Union without a Second American Civil War. What’s more, if the United States buckles, then the post-WW2 liberal order will, too, and WW3 will break out. There are all sorts of nightmare scenarios you could think up at this point, including the DPRK throwing a few H-bombs towards the United States while we were preoccupied with bombing ourselves into the Stone Age.
But something’s gotta give. America is going to reach a point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 when it becomes clear that the jig is up. We are either going to be all-Red (autocracy) or split into two nations that hate each other. Or, I supposed, some sort of murky middle ground could occur whereby the U.S. Military steps in and keeps the country together until, maybe, passions subside a little bit.
All of this is still too far out, I can’t game out any scenarios that make much sense at the moment. The first big milestone will be the 2022 elections and when Trump announces for 2024. Those two events will definitely lurch us closer — one way or another — towards the Certification Crisis of 2024 – 2025.
But I’m always wrong. Maybe somehow we’ll sort things out and my dark, dystopian fears of autocracy, civil war or military junta will just be hysterical. And, yet, to be a Republican in good standing at the moment means to be an autocratic fascist, so lulz.
