by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I write a lot about how I think if there is any sort of National Divorce that it will be Blues, not Reds, who serve the papers. And, yet, here we are with shit like this:
So, here we are. There is actual move towards “TEXIT,” or Texas voting to secede from the Union. I continue to believe that this is just not going to happen unless something really unexpected happens.
I’ve beginning to believe that even if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee that Trump will become president without a shot being fired. In fact, the only way I’m beginning to think that the only way this might happen is the following scenario: Trump is the nominee in 2024, but he loses and when he starts to demand a “National Divorce” people take him seriously about it.
Otherwise, it’s a lulz.
Either Trump wins outright and we just slide into some form of autocracy — especially should something happen to him and his veep become POTUS — or he’s the nominee and we become an autocracy that way.
So, in a sense, a lot of things would have to go wrong in a specific way for there to be a National Divorce. The question is — how possible that that specific series of events might happen?
It seems as though we’re still too far out to know one way or another. We don’t know Trump will be the Republican nominee. We don’t know if he will win the 2024 election and we don’t know if Trump loses and starts to rant about civil war if anyone will take him up on it.
A lot of this an issue of the economy. If the United States defaults on debts because we won’t raise the debt ceiling, then that sets up a situation where the economy is doing so badly that an already unstable United States would be primed and ready for strategic political violence.
Another issue is Biden’s age. There are a lot — A LOT — of nightmare scenarios dealing with Biden being out of the picture suddenly at just the wrong moment during the 2024 presidential cycle. I wince even thinking about any such thing happening, but history shows that sometimes once you’re in a crisis a lot of bad things can happen in quick succession.
So, should we take TEXIT seriously? Maybe. But maybe not YET. It could go either way with either there being TEXIT or there being, alternately, being CAXIT.
Things are very much up in the air at the moment.
