Tag: National Divorce

Give Me A Couch & Access To The NYC Subway — I’ll Take Over The World

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We all have the random delusion that we use to keep air in our lungs. For me, it’s the idea that if you just gave me the absolute basics of living in NYC — a couch to sleep on and access to the subway — that I could actually make quite a lot out of myself.

But, of course, I’m being rather delusional to think this for a number of reasons. One is, NYC is FULL of people who are just as colorful and weird as I am. Also, I’m old — and short. And, NYC is a lot different than LA. In NYC, it’s a lot more difficult to fake-it-till-you-make it than it is in LA.

NYC has some very cold, harsh metrics when any discussion of advancing your lot in life is brought up. And it helps if you’re young and cute. At least in LA, everyone is so obsessed with making in showbiz that if you’re good as schmoozing — which I am — people will at least listen to you.

But I am a bit long in tooth, I fear — especially for LA.

What is so interesting to me is the few people I know who live in NYC act like I’m an honorary New Yorker. They keep expecting me to move to NYC even though I’m a broke ass writer at the moment. But the few times I visited NYC I loved it. I really — REALLY — want to live there.

At the moment, there are two possibly ways I might make that dream come true.

One is, I sell my first novel, it’s a break out hit and I have the funds to move to NYC on my own terms. Score! The other, darker possibility is there’s a Second American Civil War and I’m forced to flee the South because, lulz, it’s 2025 MAGA SA is out for blood and wants to murder me.

I dunno. I’ve been sleep waking through my life for way, way, way too long. And maybe it’s too late. Maybe, This Is It. I’m have a heart attack or a stroke without even having the good sense to finish my first novel.

Only time will tell.

What’s Wrong With Conservative White America?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There used to be a point in time, not so long ago, when generally everyone in America — regardless of political affiliation — was on the same page about some pretty basic things. First and foremost, we all not only believed in democracy, we believed the United States was a democracy.

And, yet, here we are.

A solid 38% of the Republican electorate no longer believes in democracy and definitely no longer believes the United States is a democracy. It really makes who wonder how the fuck this happened. Ezra Klein has a great book about this very thing — “Why We’re Polarized’ — that explains how we got here, but gives the audience zero ways to solve the problem.

Basically, one big problem is as white people slowly become a minority, our power structures simply aren’t able to accommodate the change in race relations. So, in a sense, there is a really good chance that something analogous to the bad old days in South Africa may happen in the United States where a white minority controls the economy and the politics of the country.

So, in short, the case could be made that MAGA is pretty much just white identity politics. Now that white (conservative) people realize they aren’t going to be able to get their way by sheer force of numbers, they are freaking out on a number of different fronts from abortion to gun control. And it’s only going to get worse.

As I keep saying, either we turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we collapse into civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues.)

For the time being, I neither see any sort of solution nor know which direction we’re going to take. I keep hoping I’m wrong and we’re going to go a “third way” like we did in 2020. But I just don’t know. Everything is so uncertain and unstable in the United States at the moment that I just can’t game out what’s going to happen.

I have a lot of fears about the absolute worst happening, and, yet, it could be that, like in 2020, those fears are just that — “hysterical doom shit.” It could be that, lulz, neither Trump wins nor is he able to provoke a National Divorce if he loses.

Who knows.

I’ve Got To Work Faster On This Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My life has been a bit bumpy the last few days. I’ve been feeling out of sorts for a number of different reasons. There is a small chance that I’m slowly getting back to normal and, as such, the fact that I need to buckle down and work on the third draft of my novel is really beginning to loom large in my mind.

All of this is happening as it becomes more and more clear to me that my “hysterical doom shit” about America’s future in 2024 and beyond may not be so far off. Things are growing dark and absolutely no one is going to save us. Even if we “just vote” we aren’t going to save ourselves because there’s a good chance that in an effort to avoid going to prison, Trump may begin to rant that we need a National Divorce and that, unto itself, will spark a civil war.

But I can’t predict the future. I do know, however, that I’m not getting any younger and I’m in full put-up-or-shut-up mode. Things are going really well with this novel, but I need to stop daydreaming so much and buckle down. While I continue to be a somewhat idyllic situation for writing a novel, all good things must come to an end.

At any moment, something could happen that throws my life up in the air and by the time everything is sorted out, I could have lost months of time. Or I could be distracted by new opportunities, what have you. I love this six novel project and I am determined to get the first novel done.

I continue to have a few other novel ideas rolling around in my head, but I’m trying to focus on this mystery-thriller because it’s the one I’m the farthest along with. I keep idly thinking of other stories, but for the time being, I haven’t really given them much effort.

Anyway. Wish me luck, I guess.

Glenn Youngkin May Never Be POTUS, But He Could Cause Virginia to Implode If There’s a Secession Crisis Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Virginia is, it’s two states, one Red, one Blue fused together that hate each other with a white hot passion. As such, if ever there was some sort of “National Divorce,” Virginia would be one of the first states to implode into coups, counter coups and general political violence an anarchy.

And now we learn that Virginia’s vacuum, MAGA Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin is seeing a surge of interest in him running for against malignant ding-dong Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination. Youngkin has said that he won’t make a decision about running until after the 2023 Virginia state elections.

It seems clear that the metric he wants — that of the entirety of Virginia’s government being MAGA controlled — will be met and, as such, he’s going to be put on the spot as to if he’s going to run against Trump. What’s comical about this particular situation is it’s clear Republicans want uncut MAGA Trumpism, not some more palatable knockoff version that might somehow allow Republican donators sleep better at night.

Unless Trump shuffles off this mortal coil, he is GOING to be the 2024 Republican nominee and anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool. We’re careening towards a very dark situation in late 2024, early 2025 and it’s happening in broad daylight. Republicans are telegraphing their goals for a Trump second term and the only question for me at this point is if Trump loses if we’re going to have a civil war or if Trump wins if we’re going to have some sort of Blue “revolution.”

And I think Youngkin is going to find himself at the center of a severe political crisis if we have either a civil war or a revolution. If we have a “National Divorce” because Trump has lost, then he will be under a lot of pressure to declare Virginia a Red State and thus secede from the Union. If there’s some sort of concerted — and very unlikely — attempt to topple Tyrant Trump at some point in this second term, Virginia’s proximity to D.C. would also cause Youngkin to have to make some tough choices.

Anyway, I don’t know what to tell you. I can’t predict the future, so it’s possible that Youngkin could be the Great White Hope that Republican oligarchs have been looking for and he might actually give Trump a run for the nomination. I have really, really doubt that, however.

Lazy Observations About Vivek Ramaswamy’s Talking Points

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still find it curious that Vivek Ramaswamy hasn’t managed to gain significant popularity in the polls, since he makes all the right people angry. And, yet, here we are. Trump is just as popular as ever and Vivek continues to poll in the single digits.

Here are some very lazy observations about his talking points — I’ve done no research and I’m just doing it off the top of my head.

The most notable talking point to me is how Vivek never misses an opportunity to slip in a reference to a National Divorce. I think this gives us a pretty good sense of the audience he’s trying to reach. He is scooping up the fears and concerns of the far far Right and trying to validate them in an effort to pry some of them off of Trump.

All this talk about a National Divorce — no matter how chipper he may be as he says it — has only managed to make people like me more concerned about what will happen if malignant ding-dong Trump manages to lose the 2024 election. I can’t predict the future, but it definitely seems as though there is simply no way to avoid a massive, historic political event of some sort involving the 2024 presidential election.

Meanwhile, the other thing I hear a lot from Vivek is always pivoting to “the future” whenever some stupid thing that Trump comes up in conversation. I get what he’s trying to do. Not only does it allow him to dodge questions about the past, it gives him a bright, sunny “Morning Again In America” type vibe, even if it’s from a fucking fascist POV.

Lastly, the other issue he keeps blathering about is not only raising the voting age to 25, but requiring young people to take a civics test to vote. Not only is this fascist, but it’s also ironic given that Vivek has repeatedly shown that HE can’t pass basic American civics.

Anyway. We’re fucked. Good luck!

Is Our Future All A Matter of Branding?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about the fucking “Fourth Turning” that the US is careening towards is if we have some sort of “Second American Civil War” either Reds or Blues could be the ones who serve papers in a National Divorce. And, yet, the case could be made that if Reds leave the Union, it’s a Second American Civil War and if it’s Blues who leave the Union, it will be something more akin to a Second Revolution.

I say this because of the temperment of the two sides. Because of the deep echo of the failed CSA nation-state in the South, the idea of a new Red Nation plays well with the MAGA base. Meanwhile, while Blues might get fed up with the US shifting into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate, if they actually put up a fight, they’re more likely to do something more along the lines of a “revolution” rather than “civil war.”

What I mean by that is — if Blues decide to stand their ground at last against the rise of autocratic MAGA Nazi fascism in the United States, their war aims would probably be more about toppling the MAGA Nazi regime rather than starting a new “Blue Nation.” I’m aware that some of that is confirmation bias because that’s MY current thinking on the issue, but lulz.

But I don’t think we have anything to worry about — instead of a revolution or civil war or whatever the fuck you want to call it, we’re going to slip peacefully into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate and hopefully — hopefully — this will help me in my effort to sell my first novel which is pretty much the beginning of a six novel project where I use subtext to fucking rant about how much I fucking hate MAGA.

What’s So Funny ‘Bout Peace, Love & Understanding?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

But for the fact that it would cause the world to descend into chaos, death and destruction, I would be prepared to call MAGA’s bluff on a National Divorce. In fact, I think,but for the prospect of civil war, revolution and WW3, that Blues should leave the Union in late 2024, early 2025 should it be clear that we’re going to become a white Christian ethnostate.

And, yet, I hate violence, so, lulz, I guess I have to root for Ron DeSantis being the Republican nominee so the risk of civil war goes down to pretty much zero but we still turn into a white Christian ethnostate.

In other words — we’re fucked.

No one is prepared for what is about to happen to the United States, one way or another. I suppose we might punt our systemic, structural problems down the road a little bit more, but things are coming to a head very, very soon. We just can’t escape the consequences of the browning of America and the economic rise of women.

And, of course, the “birth dearth” that is probably the real reason why everything is so fucked up in the United States at the moment — white people on a macro basis just can’t handle the transition to minority status and it’s eating away at them on a psychological basis.

I talk to my conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — and I’m aghast at how we can no longer even agree on what is “real” anymore. Red and Blue are receding away from each other on a macro basis at an alarming rate to the point that I just don’t see how we don’t become all Red (a white Christian ethnostate) or we don’t have a National Divorce that ends up burning the entire globe to the ground to a certain extent.

I just don’t know what to tell you. Buckle up. Things are going to get bumpy one way or another.

Ugh, Everything Is So Dumb!

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA Nazis are such fucking crybabies. They are equal to some of the more extreme elements of the Trans movement when it comes to being willing to destroy everything in the name of “vibes.” Take, for instance, their reaction to the prospective new CEO of Twitter.

MAGA has some sort of vague sense of ideological purity that if they don’t get they freak the fuck out. They also love to gaslight when it comes to the issue of “free speech.” They want the absolute right to spread hate to the point that if you even bring up the idea of some of guardrails, they freak the fuck out. They see “free speech” as nothing more than an means to and end when it comes to establishing a fascist MAGA Nazi state.

The tragedy of the commons and all that.

The whole thing is completely fucking bonkers. It proves a point I’ve been making for some time — MAGA Nazis are politically ascendant and it could be that if we have a “National Divorce,” it will be Blues, not Reds who decide to serve papers.

I will note in passing that I’m worried about the next Republican president establishing an autocratic state using hard power, at the same time my conservative relatives — who I love dearly — are freaking out about “woke” corporations ruining their lives.

Everything is so dumb.

A National Divorce Would Be Just The Beginning

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about a so-called National Divorce, even if it was reasonably clean and reasonably bloodless is it would be just the beginning of a protracted era of chaos in North America. The reason is simple — both sides of the political equation in now-united America need each other for political, social and economic reasons.

The moment Red and Blue America officially cleave into two, independent nations, the age-old dynamics of rival nations would kick in. Add to this that all metrics point to Red America becoming inward looking, religious and a lot poorer, suggests that any “National Divorce” would inevitably prompt a re-match of some sort.

Red America, facing growing poverty in the context of finally being able to establish white minority autocratic Christian rule would have every reason to want to reunite the country at some point soon after the initial National Divorce.

But I’m working on the absolute best case scenario. Any National Divorce would be messy and chaotic and probably be happening in the context of WW3 breaking out. What happens if, say, the DPRK decides to lob a few H-Bombs on Blue America during the process of a very blood divorce? Then what are we going to do?

It seems to me that any divorce, for any reason, would cause a civil war / revolution of some sort to a scale and impact not seen since the French Revolution. The whole world would rumble as it began to sink in to various hostile powers across the globe that they now had free reign to do whatever the fuck they wanted while America was busying eating itself.

The point is — I really hope we don’t have a civil war, for whatever reason. I’m growing comfortable with the other possible choice America may make in late 2024, early 2025: autocracy. At least if we slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, it’s less likely that millions will die. Though, in all honesty, I do fear that it would be inevitable that some MAGA Pol Pot might appear who starts to round up all the “woke” people he can find and we end up with American Killing Fields.

Anyway. I’m always wrong. Hopefully we will someway manage to avoid either autocracy or civil war….but something pretty spectacular would have to happen.

‘None Dare Call It Treason,’ MTG Edition

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve given up trying to grok what the hell is going on within far Right circles where they are so partisan that they actively embrason treason if it fits their narrative. I suppose it all has something to do with how Trump is, at least in “vibe” terms a traitor so they feel they have to defend him via proxy whenever they can.

All of this is even more bonkers in the context of the legacy of Ronald Reagan. The fact that MAGA fascists would be “hard” on “wokeness” and amazingly soft of on treason and espionage is simply flabbergasting. Not only is it all very difficult to process, but if our partisan divide has gotten that bad, then it’s just a short jaunt to a National Divorce.

Now, remember, some — maybe most — of MTG’s bullshit is performative. She’s so craven that she’ll say whatever necessary to “own the libs” and stoke the base. I do think that she has the means, motive and opportunity to be America’s true autocrat by way of being ding-dong Trump’s second term Veep. She’s an idiot, but she’s definitely not so dumb that she couldn’t become what is marketed as America’s “Iron Lady” when the time comes.

There are about a dozen would-be autocrat waiting in the wings to do the final consolidation of power once Trump is out of the way. I still wonder if the tradition to autocracy will be peaceful or not. It really could go either way. The point is –we’re entering a very unstable moment in America’s political history. MAGA Republicans, on a systemic basis are chomping at the bit to establish permanent white Christian rule and the only question is if Blues bend a knee when they strike or if they bounce out of the Union in protest.

But, let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen.