Tag: National Divorce

Taking Texas’ Threat To Secede Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The signs are there that one side or the other may collectively decide to start to a National Divorce as part of the 2024 presidential silly season. But, at the moment, it definitely seems as though Reds are far more likely to do it than Blues.

And the one state that seems most likely to secede beginning at some point in late 2024, early 2025 is Texas. The talk of secession is so hot in Texas that a paper in the state wrote an editorial telling people to shut up about it.

The key reason why I believe Texas — then other Red States — might actually pull the trigger on a National Divorce is state Republican Parties are so fucking radical these days on a structural basis, that if the time comes they may actually do it. Damn the consequences.

There are two scenarios whereby I could see Texas — then the rest of Red States — might leave the Union. One is, Trump loses and when he starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce to keep himself out of prison, Red States, starting with Texas then probably South Carolina, will actually take him up on it.

Meanwhile, the OTHER way Texas might begin a National Divorce is if Trump is somehow deposed for going full tyrant after he wins. THEN, I could see Texas leaving the Union, which would prompt other Red States to do the same.

All of this is still very speculative and abstract at the moment. The only reason why I think the country MIGHT collapse into revolution / civil war is they say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. And all the signs are there that the country is gradually moving towards a level of political instability not seen since the first Civil War.

Of course, it’s very possible that we’ll just drift through this particular situation and nothing of note will happen one way or another. But for that to happen, not only would Biden have to win, but Trump’s rantings about the need for political violence after he lost would have to be ignored.

I just don’t know if we’ll be that lucky.

Gaming Out The Implications Of A Biden Win

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

But for the fucking Electoral College, Trump would be a very, very, very weak candidate. And, yet, the Electoral College exists and so, lulz, Trump could eat someone live on TV and he would STILL be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again.

For the sake of argument, let’s pretend somehow we manage to defeat fucking MAGA Nazi Trump — then what?

The first thing that pops into my mind is Trump, scared as shit about going to jail, will demand a National Divorce which would, in turn, prompt a Second American Civil War. On paper, at least, all the conditions are there for Trump to rant about such a thing and any number of states, probably starting with Texas calling up secessionist conventions.

But wait, there’s more.

The issue of Biden’s age is another issue we would have to worry about. There is a greater-than-zero chance that just as we’re about to have a civil war, Biden shuffles off this mortal coil. Talk about chaos!

And, really, even if we secure Biden’s re-election and MAGA ignores Trump’s ranting about the need for a National Divorce, there would be a pretty good chance that Biden would shuffle off this mortal coil and throw the country into the arms of a young, untested new president.

Another issue that I’ve given some thought to is the political implications of Trump, at last, facing some sort of criminal accountability. If Trump loses — and is unsuccessful in starting a civil war — he will, of course, turn around and announce his 2028 bid.

There would sure to be calls to pardon Trump no matter what happens after a Biden win. This would be a real pain in the ass because even if you did it on condition that Trump didn’t run away, he would lie and run again anyway.

So it definitely seems as though no matter what, there is going to be A LOT of political turmoil in the United States starting in late 2024.

Fascists In The Family

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy shit. This weekend was the first time that I felt my far more conservative relative had crossed the Rubicon into pure cut fascism. Now, before I begin, my conservative relatives have been VERY GOOD to me and very gracious to save my sorry ass on a number of occasions.

So, this is not personal. This is just an alarming political observation.

I bring this up because I have a regular monthly political discussion with one of my intelligent, college educated conservative relatives. I have been trying to avoid these conversations of late, but this time we got into it.

The most alarming part of the conversation was that my relative — whom I love dearly — was officially all-in for MAGA and Trump. They continue to have reservations about Trump the man, but they are totally willing to give up their American democratic birthright to the autocratic aspirations of Trump the idea.

It’s all very alarming. When pressed, my conservative relative agreed with me that only something like Trump murdering someone would be a “red line” that would prevent them from supporting him in the 2024 general election.

Now, there is obviously a lot to unpack here.

The key thing that I notice is how similar to 1850s antebellum America the conversation was. Replace “trans rights” or “abortion” with “abolition” and all the arguments on both sides would be identical.

I pressed my conservative relative — whom I love dearly — about the idea of a National Divorce and they did not dismiss the idea out of hand. It seemed as though the idea of smug Twitter liberals talking down to them would determine if they were willing to tear the country asunder or not if, say, Trump lost the 2024 election.

All of this is very much a potential dystopian hellscape. The only glimmer of hope that I could find from the conversation is what my conservative relative — whom I love dearly — my do if all the as of now rhetorical things Trump could do in his second term became a reality.

There is a very small chance that if Trump did, in fact, go full Tyrant on America that that, unto itself, might cause my principled conservative relative to sit up and take notice. That, of course, sucks because we would have to go through the chaos and turmoil of having a full-blown tyrannical president.

I say this because my far more conservative relative simply can not believe that Trump would actually do all the tyrannical things that he very clearly says he wants to do in a second term. They totally dismiss Trump’s autocratic, tyrannical leanings because he wasn’t able to implement his autocratic rhetoric the first go round.

As such, if Trump literally does go full tyrant in 2025 there is a very small possibility that, on principle, my far more conservative relative might balk at such policies. Of course, that won’t help ME much because I could be dead after an ICE agent shoots me because I won’t shut up about how I think Red King Trump is a fucking cocksucker.

All I can say is late 2024, early 2025 could be fucking lit. We could see a series of surreal events not seen since the end of the Civil War.

The Two Ways The US Might Have A Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have given this way too much thought and it seems as though there are two main scenarios that would lead to the US having a civil war of some sort.

  1. Trump Loses
    In this scenario, Trump loses fair and square and he’s so afraid of going to jail for the rest of his life that he starts to scream at the top of his lungs about the need for a “National Divorce.” States like Texas take him up on it and, there you go, civil war.
  2. Trump Wins
    In this scenario, Trump wins and goes full tyrant starting on January 20th. At some point Blues have had enough and there’s some sort of coordinated resistance to the Red King to the point that the U.S. Military deposes him. This, in turn, causes the Red States — who love the Red King — to freak the fuck out and the call up secessionist conventions.

    So, it seems our best bet is either Trump loses and he manages to just sling peacefully into political oblivion, or he wins and he somehow manages to transition the US into a MAGA-themed autocracy without pissing Blues off so much that there’s a revolution

    We have about a year to find out.

Give Me A Couch & Access To The NYC Subway — I’ll Take Over The World

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We all have the random delusion that we use to keep air in our lungs. For me, it’s the idea that if you just gave me the absolute basics of living in NYC — a couch to sleep on and access to the subway — that I could actually make quite a lot out of myself.

But, of course, I’m being rather delusional to think this for a number of reasons. One is, NYC is FULL of people who are just as colorful and weird as I am. Also, I’m old — and short. And, NYC is a lot different than LA. In NYC, it’s a lot more difficult to fake-it-till-you-make it than it is in LA.

NYC has some very cold, harsh metrics when any discussion of advancing your lot in life is brought up. And it helps if you’re young and cute. At least in LA, everyone is so obsessed with making in showbiz that if you’re good as schmoozing — which I am — people will at least listen to you.

But I am a bit long in tooth, I fear — especially for LA.

What is so interesting to me is the few people I know who live in NYC act like I’m an honorary New Yorker. They keep expecting me to move to NYC even though I’m a broke ass writer at the moment. But the few times I visited NYC I loved it. I really — REALLY — want to live there.

At the moment, there are two possibly ways I might make that dream come true.

One is, I sell my first novel, it’s a break out hit and I have the funds to move to NYC on my own terms. Score! The other, darker possibility is there’s a Second American Civil War and I’m forced to flee the South because, lulz, it’s 2025 MAGA SA is out for blood and wants to murder me.

I dunno. I’ve been sleep waking through my life for way, way, way too long. And maybe it’s too late. Maybe, This Is It. I’m have a heart attack or a stroke without even having the good sense to finish my first novel.

Only time will tell.

What’s Wrong With Conservative White America?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There used to be a point in time, not so long ago, when generally everyone in America — regardless of political affiliation — was on the same page about some pretty basic things. First and foremost, we all not only believed in democracy, we believed the United States was a democracy.

And, yet, here we are.

A solid 38% of the Republican electorate no longer believes in democracy and definitely no longer believes the United States is a democracy. It really makes who wonder how the fuck this happened. Ezra Klein has a great book about this very thing — “Why We’re Polarized’ — that explains how we got here, but gives the audience zero ways to solve the problem.

Basically, one big problem is as white people slowly become a minority, our power structures simply aren’t able to accommodate the change in race relations. So, in a sense, there is a really good chance that something analogous to the bad old days in South Africa may happen in the United States where a white minority controls the economy and the politics of the country.

So, in short, the case could be made that MAGA is pretty much just white identity politics. Now that white (conservative) people realize they aren’t going to be able to get their way by sheer force of numbers, they are freaking out on a number of different fronts from abortion to gun control. And it’s only going to get worse.

As I keep saying, either we turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we collapse into civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues.)

For the time being, I neither see any sort of solution nor know which direction we’re going to take. I keep hoping I’m wrong and we’re going to go a “third way” like we did in 2020. But I just don’t know. Everything is so uncertain and unstable in the United States at the moment that I just can’t game out what’s going to happen.

I have a lot of fears about the absolute worst happening, and, yet, it could be that, like in 2020, those fears are just that — “hysterical doom shit.” It could be that, lulz, neither Trump wins nor is he able to provoke a National Divorce if he loses.

Who knows.

I’ve Got To Work Faster On This Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My life has been a bit bumpy the last few days. I’ve been feeling out of sorts for a number of different reasons. There is a small chance that I’m slowly getting back to normal and, as such, the fact that I need to buckle down and work on the third draft of my novel is really beginning to loom large in my mind.

All of this is happening as it becomes more and more clear to me that my “hysterical doom shit” about America’s future in 2024 and beyond may not be so far off. Things are growing dark and absolutely no one is going to save us. Even if we “just vote” we aren’t going to save ourselves because there’s a good chance that in an effort to avoid going to prison, Trump may begin to rant that we need a National Divorce and that, unto itself, will spark a civil war.

But I can’t predict the future. I do know, however, that I’m not getting any younger and I’m in full put-up-or-shut-up mode. Things are going really well with this novel, but I need to stop daydreaming so much and buckle down. While I continue to be a somewhat idyllic situation for writing a novel, all good things must come to an end.

At any moment, something could happen that throws my life up in the air and by the time everything is sorted out, I could have lost months of time. Or I could be distracted by new opportunities, what have you. I love this six novel project and I am determined to get the first novel done.

I continue to have a few other novel ideas rolling around in my head, but I’m trying to focus on this mystery-thriller because it’s the one I’m the farthest along with. I keep idly thinking of other stories, but for the time being, I haven’t really given them much effort.

Anyway. Wish me luck, I guess.

Glenn Youngkin May Never Be POTUS, But He Could Cause Virginia to Implode If There’s a Secession Crisis Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Virginia is, it’s two states, one Red, one Blue fused together that hate each other with a white hot passion. As such, if ever there was some sort of “National Divorce,” Virginia would be one of the first states to implode into coups, counter coups and general political violence an anarchy.

And now we learn that Virginia’s vacuum, MAGA Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin is seeing a surge of interest in him running for against malignant ding-dong Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination. Youngkin has said that he won’t make a decision about running until after the 2023 Virginia state elections.

It seems clear that the metric he wants — that of the entirety of Virginia’s government being MAGA controlled — will be met and, as such, he’s going to be put on the spot as to if he’s going to run against Trump. What’s comical about this particular situation is it’s clear Republicans want uncut MAGA Trumpism, not some more palatable knockoff version that might somehow allow Republican donators sleep better at night.

Unless Trump shuffles off this mortal coil, he is GOING to be the 2024 Republican nominee and anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool. We’re careening towards a very dark situation in late 2024, early 2025 and it’s happening in broad daylight. Republicans are telegraphing their goals for a Trump second term and the only question for me at this point is if Trump loses if we’re going to have a civil war or if Trump wins if we’re going to have some sort of Blue “revolution.”

And I think Youngkin is going to find himself at the center of a severe political crisis if we have either a civil war or a revolution. If we have a “National Divorce” because Trump has lost, then he will be under a lot of pressure to declare Virginia a Red State and thus secede from the Union. If there’s some sort of concerted — and very unlikely — attempt to topple Tyrant Trump at some point in this second term, Virginia’s proximity to D.C. would also cause Youngkin to have to make some tough choices.

Anyway, I don’t know what to tell you. I can’t predict the future, so it’s possible that Youngkin could be the Great White Hope that Republican oligarchs have been looking for and he might actually give Trump a run for the nomination. I have really, really doubt that, however.

Lazy Observations About Vivek Ramaswamy’s Talking Points

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still find it curious that Vivek Ramaswamy hasn’t managed to gain significant popularity in the polls, since he makes all the right people angry. And, yet, here we are. Trump is just as popular as ever and Vivek continues to poll in the single digits.

Here are some very lazy observations about his talking points — I’ve done no research and I’m just doing it off the top of my head.

The most notable talking point to me is how Vivek never misses an opportunity to slip in a reference to a National Divorce. I think this gives us a pretty good sense of the audience he’s trying to reach. He is scooping up the fears and concerns of the far far Right and trying to validate them in an effort to pry some of them off of Trump.

All this talk about a National Divorce — no matter how chipper he may be as he says it — has only managed to make people like me more concerned about what will happen if malignant ding-dong Trump manages to lose the 2024 election. I can’t predict the future, but it definitely seems as though there is simply no way to avoid a massive, historic political event of some sort involving the 2024 presidential election.

Meanwhile, the other thing I hear a lot from Vivek is always pivoting to “the future” whenever some stupid thing that Trump comes up in conversation. I get what he’s trying to do. Not only does it allow him to dodge questions about the past, it gives him a bright, sunny “Morning Again In America” type vibe, even if it’s from a fucking fascist POV.

Lastly, the other issue he keeps blathering about is not only raising the voting age to 25, but requiring young people to take a civics test to vote. Not only is this fascist, but it’s also ironic given that Vivek has repeatedly shown that HE can’t pass basic American civics.

Anyway. We’re fucked. Good luck!

Is Our Future All A Matter of Branding?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about the fucking “Fourth Turning” that the US is careening towards is if we have some sort of “Second American Civil War” either Reds or Blues could be the ones who serve papers in a National Divorce. And, yet, the case could be made that if Reds leave the Union, it’s a Second American Civil War and if it’s Blues who leave the Union, it will be something more akin to a Second Revolution.

I say this because of the temperment of the two sides. Because of the deep echo of the failed CSA nation-state in the South, the idea of a new Red Nation plays well with the MAGA base. Meanwhile, while Blues might get fed up with the US shifting into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate, if they actually put up a fight, they’re more likely to do something more along the lines of a “revolution” rather than “civil war.”

What I mean by that is — if Blues decide to stand their ground at last against the rise of autocratic MAGA Nazi fascism in the United States, their war aims would probably be more about toppling the MAGA Nazi regime rather than starting a new “Blue Nation.” I’m aware that some of that is confirmation bias because that’s MY current thinking on the issue, but lulz.

But I don’t think we have anything to worry about — instead of a revolution or civil war or whatever the fuck you want to call it, we’re going to slip peacefully into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate and hopefully — hopefully — this will help me in my effort to sell my first novel which is pretty much the beginning of a six novel project where I use subtext to fucking rant about how much I fucking hate MAGA.