by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
America is spinning out of control so fast that I sometimes think all that we don’t know if it will be MAGA or Blues that decide to leave the Union starting in late 2024, early 2025. I spend a lot of time assuming that if such a thing happens, it will be Blues who do it.
And, yet MAGA sure does enjoy mentally masturbating about Red states leaving the Union. So, yet again, let’s contemplate what a “MAGA Revolution” might look like in the context of the 2024 presidential election cycle. The issue for me is, MAGA really is fading in popularity to some extent. Or, to put it another way, that core 38% of the Republican base has such a stranglehold on Republicans that when the time comes that, unto itself, might be enough to cause Red states to leave the Union.
The key thing that would prompt Reds, rather than Blues, to leave the Union would be if ding-dong Trump won or not. If Trump won the 2024 election — which definitely seems he will one way or another — then the possibility that Blues will begin to leave the Union increases significantly.
But if Trump somehow loses, then I could see a situation where he rants and rants and rants about how yet another election was “stolen” from him and he, as such, causes Red states like Texas, etc, to begin the process of leaving the Union via secessionist conventions.
If it has to happen, then of course I want the onus of secession to be on Reds. Then Blues get to keep the USA brand and we have every moral obligation to keep the Union together, just like we did during the first American Civil War. But something I have to keep reminding myself whenever I run these Second American Civil War scenarios is I just can’t predict the future to any specific degree.
There’s every reason to believe that if there was a National Divorce that it would be successful for various reasons. And, what’s worse, the DPRK could aggravate things by lobbing a few H-Bombs our way as we’re in the middle of tearing ourselves apart. And, what’s worse, if the US is having a civil war, WW3 would, by definition, begin to happen around the world.
But we have to appreciate that on a systemic basis, the Republican Party is chomping at the bit to either turn the United States into an autocracy or force the issue of a National Divorce. And that existential choice will come to a head one way or another as part of the 2024 election. At the moment, I just don’t see how Trump doesn’t win in 2024, which would cause Blues to think about leaving the Union.
And, yet, I just can’t predict the future — I sure did a bad job of it in 2020 — so I suppose something could happen that causes Trump to lose the 2024 election and, as such, prompts discussion within MAGA Reds about leaving the Union. It really could, at the moment, go either way.
