by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
No one is going to save us when it comes to Trump and MAGA. On a macro basis, the die is cast. Or, put another way, now that all of the expected indictments of Trump have been handed down, we’re a lot closer to knowing the dynamic going into the 2024 election.
Trump is an avatar, a vessel for the MAGA fascist rage over not just the browning of America and the growing economic agency of women, but nothing more than just “vibes.” So, barring something I can’t predict, Trump will see being elected as his only way to avoid going to prison.
I still believe that Trump is going to win in 2024 and we’ll just slide peacefully into autocracy. That will be that. I just don’t see Blues having the spunk to do anything about a lurch into autocracy. Too many Blues have second passports they have through their refugee grandparents. They’re cowards with the means, motive and opportunity to flee the country when autocracy comes to America. Rather than any sort of “Resistance Revolution” in late 2024, early 2025, a least 1 million wealthy, smug Blues will leave the country starting Election Day 2024.
And, yet, if Trump does lose, there is a real risk that in a hysterical bid to avoid prison time, Trump could begin to demand that Red States leave the Union. Then we have a National Divorce — a civil war. There probably would be a race between Texas and South Carolina to see which state will be the first to secede after a Secessionist Convention.
Any attempt at a National Divorce would be very, very messy. There are a lots of Reds in Blue State and a lot of Blues in Red States. And, that doesn’t even mention the racial element of all of this. If there was a National Divorce at Trump’s behest, there is a greater-than-zero sum chance of a race war in the South.
On a personal basis, my own state of Virginia is two states fused together that hate each other. If there was a National Divorce, it would be states like Virginia that would implode into intra-state civil war because the two parts of the state are just too hostile towards each other.
