by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I just don’t see Trump losing in 2024. At this point, it seems an immutable force of American political history that Trump wins in 2024 and he — and his immediate successor — transition the United States into a Russia-like autocracy.
And, yet, I suppose it’s at least possible that Trump might lose in 2024. It’s highly unlikely, but it’s possible.
The thing we have to begin to game out is what Trump would do if that did, in fact, happen. What I think would happen is Trump would freak the fuck out and he would begin to thrash about, spinning his usual bullshit. He would be so upset at the prospect of going to prison that he might begin to rant about how Red States need to leave the Union.
As such, I could totally see it being a race between Texas and South Carolina to see which state would call up a Secessionist Convention first.
Now, any talk of a National Divorce — which would lead to a civil war — is complicated by a number of things, chief amongst them being race. The idea of Southern states leaving the Union might make white good old boys feel good about the South, at last, “rising again,” but it would alarm the African American community a great deal.
So, I don’t know. It’s a very peculiar situation. Even Texas, which is shifting Blue long-term, might simply collapse into an intra-state civil war if there was any serious attempt to leave the Union. As such, the states to actually successfully call a secessionist convention might be the very white, low population states of the Rocky Mountain area.
Or, put another way, the whole thing would be a clusterufck becuase it just wouldn’t be as simple as the secessionists might otherwise believe. It would all be very, very messy and tragic. A lot of people would die for no damn reason and it’s likely the greatest country in human history would wilfully reduce itself to rubble.
Like I said — I just don’t see Trump losing in 2024. So, lulz, welcome to autocracy!
