by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The key issue to remember is no one is going to save us. Even if Trump is magically politically neutralized, the Republican Party is fascist and our side into autocracy will continue with or without him.
I hear a lot of chatter about how Trump may be able to win the Republican nomination, but he can’t win the general. Given that Trump is just 60,000 votes in five states away from winning in 2024, I have my doubts about any theory of the case that doesn’t take his potential victory seriously.
But as I keep say, Trump losing is kind of besides the point. The issue is not so much Trump losing as it is what his response to losing might be. You thought 2020 was bad, just wait until bonkers Trump realizes that he could very well die in prison now that he’s lost the 2024 election. It’s very easy to imagine him not only saying some pretty fucking unhinged stuff, but also going transactional — as in, him telling Red States to leave the Union.
Let me be clear — at the moment, it definitely seems as though Trump is going to win outright — or steal the election in some way — and we’ll just slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy because smug Twitter liberals will be too busy leaving the country to do anything about it.
But if Trump does somehow magically manage to lose the 2024 election, the risk of a Second American Civil War increases significantly. The scenario I keep thinking about is Trump grows increasingly unhinged at the prospect of going to prison and states like Texas and South Carolina begin to take him up on his demands that Red States leave the Union to save his sorry ass.
That seems like a very real possibility at the moment. I say this because a number of Red State Republican Parties are, on a systemic basis, so fascist and so beholden to Trump that anything — including a secession crisis — is possible in late 2024, early 2025.
What makes this scenario so alarming is any National Divorce (Second American Civil War) would directly lead to WW3 breaking out, not to mention the DPRK potentially lobing a few H-bombs our way for good measure. Anyway, not only can I not predict the future, I’m always wrong.
Good luck.
