There are two things going on at the moment that make me think of the quip about, “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the theatre?”
One of them is the possibility that the bird flu bouncing around America’s farms might jump to humans. Yikes. The idea that the Black Swan event I’ve been thinking might happen in 2024 to throw the presidential cycle up in the air would be ANOTHER pandemic is quite jarring.
And from what I can tell of bird flu, it would have the potential to be far more severe than Covid was. I’ve heard rumors that we have some sort of vaccine for bird flu so…maybe I’m worrying for nothing?
The OTHER issue that makes me think about that quip is RFK Jr. running for president. I have a very conservative relative — whom I love dearly — who recently tried to browbeat me into supporting weirdo RFK Jr.
It’s a testament to how fucked up our politics are that any conservative would think RFK Jr. would be anything but a wasted vote on a kook by someone like me. Every day, I realize that even though I’m an political Independent that I’m “Riding with Biden.”
One thing I’ve noticed is a number of far Left people who are somehow my Facebook friends have totally lost their minds when it comes to Biden. They are so far Left that their arguments against Biden are indistinguishable from MAGA’s.
The thing that all the fucking smug Twitter liberals dance around whenever they hysterically talk about what a second Trump term would be like is the practical implications of what happens if Trump goes “full tyrant” starting in 2025.
Now, I have to point out that the general macro political trend in the United States is towards autocracy. In fact, at the moment, the United States is an autocracy with an autocrat. In other words, but for the fact that MAGA isn’t in power, we would be an autocracy NOW.
What’s more, if history had picked ANY ONE ELSE but Trump to guide America into autocracy, it would be done peacefully, gradually and without much fuss. But Trump is SO FUCKING LAZY AND STUPID that there is a really good chance that the moment he’s in power again, he’ll thrash around in a very tyrannical manner.
The key group of people when talking about any possible “overthrow” of Trump would be the people who would otherwise in any transition to autocracy be quite content — Traditionalists. If Trump wasn’t such a fucking moron, he would gradually move the Overton Window of tyranny and by 2028, we would just shrug when magically he was able to run for a third term.
But this is Trump we’re talking about, so there’s a decent chance that Trump will be so dumb and lazy in his move to transition us into autocracy that Traditionalists might actually sit up and take notice. If Trump’s tyranny is as chaotic and egregious as it seems clear it will be, then even Traditionalists might become aghast.
Of course, I have to qualify all of this by saying it’s not like Traditionalists would join in, say, a General Strike. But they might just stand down when it became clear that Trump’s political days were numbered.
There are two ways I could see Trump being deposed.
One is political — his abuse of power is so astonishing that he gets impeached and, because of a successful General Strike, he is somehow, magically successfully impeached in the Senate.
The other, darker possibility is the wheels totally fly off our political system and not even a General Strike is enough to get rid of Trump and when the American economy craters because of the strike, the U.S. Military feels compelled to step in. I suppose they could force SCOTUS to “review” their existing decision on the 14th Amendment insurrection clause and that would be the legal cover they would need to forcibly remove Trump.
But it would not be rainbows an unicorns if we deposed Trump. The moment Trump was removed from office — one way or another — any number of Red States would head for the doors and civil war would start.
But for the fucking Electoral College, Trump would be a very, very, very weak candidate. And, yet, the Electoral College exists and so, lulz, Trump could eat someone live on TV and he would STILL be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again.
For the sake of argument, let’s pretend somehow we manage to defeat fucking MAGA Nazi Trump — then what?
The first thing that pops into my mind is Trump, scared as shit about going to jail, will demand a National Divorce which would, in turn, prompt a Second American Civil War. On paper, at least, all the conditions are there for Trump to rant about such a thing and any number of states, probably starting with Texas calling up secessionist conventions.
But wait, there’s more.
The issue of Biden’s age is another issue we would have to worry about. There is a greater-than-zero chance that just as we’re about to have a civil war, Biden shuffles off this mortal coil. Talk about chaos!
And, really, even if we secure Biden’s re-election and MAGA ignores Trump’s ranting about the need for a National Divorce, there would be a pretty good chance that Biden would shuffle off this mortal coil and throw the country into the arms of a young, untested new president.
Another issue that I’ve given some thought to is the political implications of Trump, at last, facing some sort of criminal accountability. If Trump loses — and is unsuccessful in starting a civil war — he will, of course, turn around and announce his 2028 bid.
There would sure to be calls to pardon Trump no matter what happens after a Biden win. This would be a real pain in the ass because even if you did it on condition that Trump didn’t run away, he would lie and run again anyway.
So it definitely seems as though no matter what, there is going to be A LOT of political turmoil in the United States starting in late 2024.
The moment I saw that Hollywood was making a movie about a fictional faking of the moon landing, I remembered the old movie Capricorn One. That movie involved the faking of a landing on Mars.
Given how Elon Musk is obsessed with that idea, it would make a lot of sense to make a movie about someone like Musk faking such an accomplishment. Such a reboot kind of writes itself.
It has to be noted how bonkers pop culture has become of late. People are flipping out about a fucking eclipse of all things. Everything is a conspiracy now or seen through a partisan lens to a ridiculous degree.
It really makes you wonder what the fuck is going to happen in 2025 should ding-dong Trump become POTUS again. I just don’t think any of us are pepared for how fucked up such an event would be on both a political and cultural basis. Things would get very, very dark — no eclipse needed.
Oh boy. It is clear to me that MAGA Nazis want to replace the Administrative State with the Moralistic State. The great irony of it all is, of course, if you talk to a lot of Traditionalists they will lulz the idea that MAGA Nazis would come after birth control.
They simply don’t believe it possible.
What makes all of this such a fucking clusterfuck is contraception is, at its heart, not only a moralistic issue, but also an economic one. The thing about the fucking MAGA Nazis is the vessel for their tyranny is ding-dong Trump who could very well, unto himself, cause the collapse of the United States into chaos and anarchy.
Any other Republican in Trump’s historical position could easily escort the United States into autocracy. They would be smooth about it and gradually consolidate power in such a way that most people who weren’t obsessed with politics wouldn’t even notice.
But the person that history has entrusted with transitioning the US into an autocracy is such a fucking lazy idiot that he could very well be deposed in some way through a Blue Glorious Revolution, which, would, in turn cause a civil war because Red States wouldn’t stand for it.
And, yet, there’s just so much unknown about what may happen in late 2024, early 2025. I spend all this time thinking about the absolute worst possible scenario when it’s possible…lulz, we just kind of muddle through. The only reason why I have my doubts about that is if Trump is re-elected he will go out of his way to push America to the brink of collapse.
If ever there was an instance of someone who will not, can not take a hint, it’s JK Rowling. Sometimes saying nothing is far better than saying anything and Rowling continues to muck about in the very, very touchy subject of trans-rights as is shown below with this statement.
I’m impressed that despite the total freak out by the vast majority of people who read her books, she continues to stick to her guns on this subject. I, myself, struggle with trans rights because it’s so an effective wedge issue for fucking MAGA Nazis to use.
We must protect Ethel Cain at all costs.
Just within my own family, sometimes all my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — want to talk about is some of the more exotic scenarios involving trans people. It definitely seems to me that too often the “woke cancel culture mob” is so blinded by their desire to make trans people some sort of “protected class” that they miss the bigger problem — MAGA Nazis use trans rights as a way to push people who should know better into the arms of tyranny.
I’m all for trans rights because I know that they are the political canary in the coalmine — if they end up in some Trump branded concentration camp, I will be right there with them because I’m a loud mouth crank who won’t shut up about what a fucking piece of shit Trump is.
I still believe that most of the controversy about trans people comes more from the Right trolling the Left because of how touchy the subject is to them than any real anger on the average American.
One of the many signs that the bolts are popping off the United States as we careen towards the 2024 presidential election is the clear radicalization of the otherwise principled Traditionalists in my life. Traditionalists are the backbone of any stable democracy and the idea that they would go full MAGA because of “vibes” is very disturbing.
What I mean by “vibes” is the fact that a lot of Traditionalists don’t have a problem with gay people or abortion, but they feel these things should be done in private and with shame attached. In other words, they just don’t want to have to think about it or talk about it. They know being gay or having an abortion exists, but they see them as a “personal problem” that should be treated as personal disaster.
That’s why Traditionalists in principle are against being gay or having an abortion but they would be cool with it if someone in their family turned out to be gay or if they had to have an abortion. Now, I think this means they’re big ol hypocrites, but lulz, America may have a civil war soon because of these “vibe” issues.
The Traditionalist in my family — who I love dearly — have grown so radicalized that their ONLY red line when it comes to MAGA and Trump is the personal. At the moment, they are willing to give up their American birthright of democracy willfully and with a bit of glee if it means abortion is illegal and trans people magically vanish from any form of public discourse.
When I bring up the idea that Trump may go full tyrant on us if he’s re-elected, they dismiss the idea that such a thing is possible because he was all talk the first time, so it makes sense to them that he would be all talk the second go around. And the, in general, support Trump rounding up undocumented people and putting them in camps….even as they just give you a blank stare when you try to tell them the nitty-gritty of such a plan.
“I just want to be left alone,” is their mantra to the point that they don’t give you a yes-or-no answer when you ask them if they would support a National Divorce should Trump lose the 2024 election.
All of this is very personal to me because I *do* think Trump will go full tyrant if he’s re-elected and, as such, there’s every reason to believe that if Trump builds out the infrastructure round up undocumented people he might throw loud mouth cranks like me into the mix as well.
Then and ONLY THEN, will principled Traditionalists take notice. When I get snatched off the street because I won’t stop calling Trump a fucking cocksucker no matter what, THEN they will begin to have second thoughts about their support of Tyrant Trump.
If that is in fact the case, the specter of Trump potentially being deposed in some way begins to become a viable scenario. Talk about bonkers! But, wait, it gets worse — if Trump is deposed in some sort of Blue Glorious Revolution, then, of course, Red States would probably leave the Union in protest.
If there is any justice in this world, Chappell Roan will be the biggest pop music star of 2024. As an old man, her music reminds the pop music I heard on the radio in the mid 1980s.
Chappell Roan
When I’m in a good mood, I like to think that maybe her potential popularity may be part of a broader cultural vibe shift. There are a number of other acts like IDLES, The Last Dinner Party and So Good who are bubbling up that seem to indicate that tastes may be changing.
It’s possible.
Of course, all of this is happening in the context of the rise of AI, Apple Vision Pro and the possibility of a fucking political “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025 and it definitely seems as though we may wake up at some point in 2025 to a New Era.
As I’ve said before, one of the biggest differences between South Korea and the United States is things change every day in South Korea, but take years and years to in the States. And I think late 2024, early 2025 could see us all lurch into a new, unknown world.
The forces for that kind of stuff to happen are definitely building. And the potential of Chappell Roan to blow up with traditional pop music may be a sign that such things may happen.
On paper, at least, it definitely seems as though we are careening towards a massive fucking political disaster at some point in late 2024, early 2025. And, yet, no one can predict the future so it’s at least possible that should, somehow, Trump lose that instead of having the United States collapsing into civil war…nothing happens.
Because while at the moment it seems as though we’re cruising into a chaotic MAGA autocracy, there IS a chance that Trump might lose. And as I keep saying, we could have severe political violence in late 2024, early 2025 no matter what happens. Win or lose, Trump could destroy the United States.
But there IS a chance that we’re all overthinking this. It could be that things just aren’t going to be as dire as I think they may be. I say this because while the Right can spew all the bullshit rhetoric they want online, it’s a huge leap into turning that rhetoric into physical violence in the real world.
Remember, it took months and months of Trump ranting in the lead up to January 6th for Trump to cause an insurrection on January 6th. So…I don’t know. It will be interesting to see how, exactly, things work out the moment we learn that Trump has lost the election.
I do think, however, that there is a greater-than-zero chance — no matter what — we could see political events in late 2024, early 2025 unlike anything we’ve seen since the Civil War.
Things are pretty quiet at the moment. We’ve had a nice few months of pretty much nothing of note going on. There have been a few blips, but nothing that really made us all sit up and take notice.
It make you wonder what is going to happen.
My fear is, of course, some major Black Swan event is going to happen to upend everything. That’s one of the big differences between, say, South Korea and the United States — while things change all the time in South Korea in the US they stay the same for a long time then everything changes suddenly overnight.
Usually, this happens because of a presidential election.
But, in a sense, we’re still stuck in the post 9/11 era. You might be able to make the case that the election of Trump ended that era and, yet, that change was may only superficial.
I do think that everything is going to change one way or another in late 2024, early 2025, probably because of a combination of so-called Fourth Turning with something akin to a Petite Singularity.
Things just can’t stay so meh forever. History abhors a vacuum, just like nature, and it definitely seems as though we’re all just kind of drifting at the moment.
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