The Biggest Constitutional Crisis In 50 Years — The Potential Catch-22 Of The Mueller Report

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

A Constitutional Crisis usually happens not because the system doesn’t work, but because human nature runs up against at cross purposes in a quirky way that one could never foresee.

As such, given my back-of-the-envelope knowledge of the Special Council guidelines, it seems there’s a quirk that might cause the entire American Constitutional system to freeze up until someone blinks.

The potential Constitutional Crisis goes something like this: Attorney General Bill Barr being a Trump loyalist takes one look at what is laid out in the Mueller Report and sends over a few pages summing up that while some seriously shady shit happened between the Russians and the Trump Campaign, because it did not reach the level of statute for “conspiracy,” no collusion happened (even though the two things are not the same.)

Now, the crisis kicks in when one of two things happen — Barr words what he sends to Congress in some a way that it’s obvious that he’d hiding some seriously big news against the Trump Administration or it leaks out that while Trump, Don Jr. or Jared weren’t actually indicted by Mueller, a propendency of evidence points to Trump himself needing to be indicted….

…but he can’t be indicted because of DOJ guidelines…

So we would have a massive clusterfuck on our hands as Trump hunkers down to not release this information (even though he’s been babbling about the need for “transparency” for months now ) because for the ostensible reason of not “casting aspersions against the assumed innocent” (him). But because in that case only Congress could weigh the political necessity of impeachment first in the House and later in the Senate (hopefully) if they don’t get that information, they can’t very well do the job of impeachment properly.

This tug of war could go on for some time, bouncing back and forth in the Courts long enough for Trump to sail to reelection and they we actually get into the business of getting rid of Trump at some point between 2021 and 2023. The absolute worse case scenario being, of course, that Trump does Nixon one better and simply ignores SCOTUS should they somehow have a shred of decency left and vote against him when it comes to releasing as much of The Mueller Report as possible. (Given that this would likely happen in the middle of a Trump’s re-election campaign…I think he probably would ignore SCOTUS until after he’s been re-elected.)

And, yet, if you’re a Trump supporter — or one of his dipship lackies — I wouldn’t whip out your cock and start stroking it for joy quite yet. Remember, the reason why The Mueller Report is actually so important is because it will kind of mark a significant moment in the Trump Era because the now Democratically controlled House will have to weigh the political moment to see if it’s worth finally beginning the process of impeachment.

This is going to happen no matter what we learn — or don’t learn — about Trump via The Mueller Report, even if all the most damning aspects of it never see the light of day. Once the House realises they can’t use The Mueller Report as political cover, they’re going to keep investigating Trump anyway and while it might take some time, Trump’s going to have to account for his political sins at some point in the future by, say, 2023.

Or put it another way — Trump’s second term is going to fucking suck.

It’s a historical truth that typically presidential second terms are much, much worst than the first and Trump’s is unlikely to be any different. In fact, in a way, Trump’s second term, in itself, is an existential threat to Trump’s political future.

What I mean is, I give up on getting rid of Trump between 2019 and early 2021. We’re stuck with him, no matter what.

But once his second term starts, the clock resets. We have a solid three years before the talk of “letting the people decide Trump’s legacy” begins in about 2023. As such, if the House stays Democratic, which it should, Trump’s totally fucked.

He. Is. Fucked.

If he’s not driven out of office, he’ll be impeached and come extremely close to being convicted in the Senate. In fact, he might actually even be convicted in the Senate. Yes, if you’re MAGA, you’ll have had a solid six or so years of destroying America, inciting needless violence and racial discord. You’ll have had the opportunity to ram young, conservative hacks into the Judiciary. You will have gotten your tax cuts. You will have had the opportunity to destroy the environment and either destroy or dramatically change the nature of the “administrative state.”

But let one thing be clear — the political depth charge that will be Trump’s final demise at some point between 2021 and 2023 is likely to be so dramatic, so surreal and so damaging to the long-term MAGA agenda, that you fucktards might at least pause between counting your tax cuts long enough to reflect on how maybe, just maybe Trump might have been something we could have avoided if we’d be a little less craven.

So, people like me just have to hunker down for just over 2 years.

Once we lose the 2020 election and Trump runs around naked on the National Mall proclaiming his “vindication” and pardons every MAGA person in America of every crime they’ve ever thought about committing, just know that the clock, at last, is finally ticking.

My Personal Prediction For The Mueller Report

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Given that Bob Mueller is wrapping up without a major indictment of someone like Jared or Don Jr. (so far), I think it’s safe to say the Mueller Report will not be the thing that brings down Trump in any meaningful way.

In other words, the thing that everyone wants it to be — objective, non-partisan reasoning as to why Trump should be immediately removed from office for the sake of the nation — it ain’t gunna be.

What’s worse, given that Mueller is likely to say that there is a preponderance of evidence that Trump did collude, but did not “conspire,” the actual impact of the Report probably won’t last beyond one Twitter news cycle. In other words, maybe 20 minutes.

It will be a lot of news, but not much substance in the way people like me have been hoping for. Trump and his allies will came Trump has been “vindicated,” Trump will run on “Carnage Again In America” and because Democrats are so divided, he will easily win. Add to this that American Industrialists have a big old boner for Trump, I just don’t see there being any respite from this hellish experience.

What’s worse, the most damning portions of the Report are unlikely to ever be seen.

So, I guess it’s Trumps for the next 20 years until the youngest of the Baby Boomers begin to drop dead and the “browning of America” finally reaches a tipping point.

Unless there’s a race war / civil war before then.

Idle Rambling About The Novel I’m Gestating & The General American Political Stuff

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Enjoy.

Trump May Face The 1-2 Punch Of A Bombshell Mueller Report & ‘No Deal’ Brexit

By Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I don’t know anything, but the conditions are there for Trump to be on thin ice in the next month or so.

— The Mueller Report is set to be sent to Bill Barr soon.
— No Deal Brexit may happened on March 29th.

‘The Ides Of Mueller’ Would Be The Setup To Something Historically Messy In Scope

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Again, I don’t know anything about anything.

But if you want to waste time time with me, let’s reflect on what would happen if Friday (March 15th) was The Ides Of Mueller and The Mueller Report somehow not only dropped by was obviously an existential threat to the Trump Administration.

The thing that I’ve long thought is that if we got Trump by August 2019, we could put this all behind us and move on. But what I didn’t fact in was the the moment the polls closed for the 2018 Congressional mid-terms, the 2020 presidential campaign began.

As such, it is taking the American ship of state much longer to right its course. Furthermore, it’s possible that criminality associated with the Trump Administration is so massive that it won’t be sorted out until 2021. Thus, the drumbeat of impeachment will be just a lot of white noise in 2020 and people are really going to be more interested in the economy and paying off their mortgage.

And, yet, if The Mueller Report is the rhetorical and political equivalent of Caesar walking into the Senate in 55BC, the distance between what is politically possible and necessary may snap back into place in a pretty fast, pretty dramatic fashion. I say this because right now for some pretty white knuckled political reasons, both parties feel they have a vested interest in slow walking any talk of impeachment. They feel this, in large part, because of, you guessed it, the 2020 presidential campaign.

But what happens if The Mueller Report turns March 15, 2019 into The Ides of Mueller and the whole political equation of the moment is thrown out the window? I struggle to think of it would play out. It seems as though the House Democratic Leadership sees immediate impeachment ahead of the 2020 campaign as a fool’s errand.

I’m enough of a student of history, however, to know that occasionally the dead hand of history has other ideas. This, of course, is the worst case scenario. There are plenty of scenarios where what I expect will happen, happens — there’s a slow boil that finally begins to bubble at some point in Trump’s second administration.

If the issue of impeachment should happen to be become a crisis sooner rather than later, the most likely scenario is Trump is impeached in the House, acquitted in the Senate and he runs around saying he’s been “exonerated” of every illegal thing he’s ever done in his entire life.

But let’s play pretend.

Not know anything means there’s a chance that what I — and we — don’t know is far worst than we could ever imagine, so bad, in fact, that at some point in the next few months the “bipartisan” part of Speaker Pelosi’s demands for impeachment are met and away we go.

This is where things get crazy. Trump could literally stir up civil unrest on a massive scale. He could start to pardon everyone he needs to pardon. He hold up in the Oval Office and should be actually be impeached refuse to leave. And he might not leave unless Federal agents physically remove him.

But that’s the absolute worst-case scenario.

The absolute worse. Reality is likely to fall in some sort of murky, muddled in-between that takes far longer than any of us would like. That’s why I see Trump either being succeed in 2024 by someone like Tom Cotton or maybe, just maybe leaving power in some way around August 2022. Maybe if Ivanka is allowed to become VEEP?

Who knows. The macro problems that led to Trump aren’t going anywhere are likely bound to only get worse.

The Ides Of Mueller

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I don’t know anything about anything and you shouldn’t listen to me. But having said that, the conditions are there for Friday, March 15th to be The Ides of Mueller when The Mueller Report drops.

If it was, in fact, The Ides of Mueller, we probably would know pretty quick. Like, when we woke up. I say this because it would make a lot of sense for someone Big, say, Don Jr. to get arrested in the early morning hours.

It would make sense for Mueller to do that then turn around and submit his report to Attorney General Bill Barr.

But I’m grasping at the most gossamer of straws. It could be weeks, if not months, before the Mueller Report comes out despite all my speculation.

As an aside, while I thought if we got Trump by August 2019 that we’d be ok, I realize now that what I feared would happen at that point, that the conventional wisdom would be that we should “let the people decide,” has actually happened now.

So, in a sense, flipping the House was actually the first part of a much, much, much longer progress than I first imagined. It’d likely — almost absolute — that Trump will win re-election handily, so any impeachment proceedings would likely happen at some point in late 2021 to mid 2022. So, now it seems like we’re most likely to get rid of Trump about August 2022.

That would give Pence the ability to pardon Trump (and everyone else who needed to be pardoned) AND when two more terms in office as an incumbent.

Having said that, if things move far faster than any of us believe possible, we could very well have the absolutely surreal situation of it being absolutely clear that Trump absolutely has to be impeached — at a minimum — while the 2020 presidential campaign plays out in the background.

It would be historically messy, if nothing else.

If The Mueller Report is the rhetorical and political equivalent of Caesar walking into the Senate in 55BC, the distance between what is politically possible and necessary may snap back into place in a pretty fast, pretty dramatic fashion. I say this because right now for some pretty white knuckled political reasons, both parties feel they have a vested interest in slow walking any talk of impeachment. They feel this, in large part, because of, you guessed it, the 2020 presidential campaign.

But what happens if The Mueller Report turns March 15, 2019 into The Ides of Mueller and the whole political equation of the moment is thrown out the window? I struggle to think of it would play out. It seems as though the House Democratic Leadership sees immediate impeachment ahead of the 2020 campaign as a fool’s errand.

I’m enough of a student of history, however, to know that occasionally the dead hand of history has other ideas. This, of course, is the worst case scenario. There are plenty of scenarios where what I expect will happen, happens — there’s a slow boil that finally begins to bubble at some point in Trump’s second administration.

If the issue of impeachment should happen to be become a crisis sooner rather than later, the most likely scenario is Trump is impeached in the House, acquitted in the Senate and he runs around saying he’s been “exonerated” of every illegal thing he’s ever done in his entire life.

But let’s play pretend.

Not know anything means there’s a chance that what I — and we — don’t know is far worst than we could ever imagine, so bad, in fact, that at some point in the next few months the “bipartisan” part of Speaker Pelosi’s demands for impeachment are met and away we go.

This is where things get crazy. Trump could literally stir up civil unrest on a massive scale. He could start to pardon everyone he needs to pardon. He hold up in the Oval Office and should be actually be impeached refuse to leave. And he might not leave unless Federal agents physically remove him.

But that’s the absolute worst-case scenario.

The absolute worse. Reality is likely to fall in some sort of murky, muddled in-between that takes far longer than any of us would like. That’s why I see Trump either being succeed in 2024 by someone like Tom Cotton or maybe, just maybe leaving power in some way around August 2022. Maybe if Ivanka is allowed to become VEEP?

Who knows. The macro problems that led to Trump aren’t going anywhere are likely bound to only get worse.

The Trump Era, ‘Trumplandia,’ Is Likely To Be A Completely Value-Free Historical Experience

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

There’s a real chance that one of two things will happen — either the entire nation, in a sense, turns into Trumplandia after Trump finally leaves office in 2025, or the whole thing is completely value free.

What I mean by this is, either just like the Reagan Revolution fundamentally changed modern America’s political landscape, so too will the Trump dystopia, or when Trumplandia is over, all his defenders will slink back under the rocks from whence they came.

At this point, either eventuality is about 50/50.

I guess the only difference between the two is if we get a center-Right successor to Trump or a center-Left one. And, really, it doesn’t matter. Trump is totally destroying America on a fundamental level and all I ask is I eventually make enough money to leave the country and never come back.

If a weaponized ICE doesn’t put me in a camp before I can escape, that is.

Weighing Seriously The Chances That Brexit Will Cause ‘Trumxit’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The only reason why I think Brexit may cause Trumxit is there’s a real chance the global economy is going to slow down significantly should No Deal Brexit happen.

One of the several unique aspects of Watergate that lead to Nixon leaving office, besides the tapes — and Nixon’s physical inability to burn them (he was in bed with a problem caused by the veins in his legs) — was the economy went south just about the time he left office.

I just don’t see anything forcing Trump out of office. The economy could crater and while he might get impeached in the House because of it, you could have a Second Great Depression and you won’t be able to get enough Republican Senators to vote for conviction.

So, really, since the United States is no longer a democracy, Trump is going to cruise into a second term no matter what, groom his young, passionate ideological successor and the only thing that might save us is two or three presidential cycles down the road some sort of fluke happens.

And, by that point, the youngest of the Baby Boomers will finally begin to drop dead just as the browning of America reaches a tipping point and maybe the American ship of state will actually right itself before blood runs in the streets.

God, I hope so.

Strategically, Things May Be About To Get Very Messy For Democrats

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Between now and January 2021, the Resistance is going to face some pretty messy strategic decisions. If Trump survives until his second term — and I think he probably will unless No Deal Brexit causes the global economy to come to a screeching halt — then either he will talk about how he’s been “redeemed” or we’ll finally learn that his crimes against the Constitution are so egregious that he has to be impeached, if nothing else.

And, yet, I don’t know. There’s simply no easy answer.

No matter what Democrats in the House do, Trump is going to scream at the top of his lungs. Unless they act like Republicans, that is. Then he’ll be sweet as can be.

I’m Nervous About The DPRK

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Donald Trump is a big old doofus and as it seems the DPRK may be preparing a new missile test, there’s a chance that they’ve finally realize this as well.

If they did start shooting rockets off and testing H-Bombs again, everything would change pretty quick. And this would be the backdrop to Trump going to war against the Legislative Branch. Leave it to Trump to cause a nuclear war between the United States and the DPRK through sheer incompetence, then turn around and use it as his personal excuse to go full dictator.

You know he would, too. If he managed to bungle his way into a shooting war with the DPRK and they managed to blow up, say LA or NYC or DC, he would likely declare martial law and hunker down for the rest of his life.

I have no easy answers on that one, folks.

But maybe I’m wrong. Maybe things aren’t quite as dire as I fear.