#COVID19 Threat Assessment For March 11th: ‘It’s Not A Toomha’

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I am feeling pretty good right now. Now that understand what’s going on happen — there’s going to be a sharp, brief spike in cases across the country before the situation stabilize — I’m not feeling as nervous. At this point, the only reason why I’m really concerned at all is what’s going on in Italy and Iran. China and South Korea have proven that with the proper measures, you can have a suddenly severe spike in cases that subsides to a manageable level rather abruptly. We’re probably going to get the shit scared out of us on an unprecedented level nationally, but we will live to fight another day.

At least, that’s what should happen.

The biggest threat to American security right now is not COVID19, but our own president’s reaction to it. He’s probably going to switch gears tonight and go full paranoid racist demagogue on the situation. He will see this pandemic as an opportunity to further consolidation power, not to bring the nation together.

Trump never loses on a political level because of his nature as an avatar for the MAGA base’s hatred of liberals, the browning of America and feminists. So, for the time being, Trump, is as always, his own worst enemy. In a sense, Trump may become a “War President” and, as such, he will have far more power than he might otherwise. If he really was the “very stable genius” that he and Maggie Haberman would have us believe, he would be in a very good position to dominate Joe Biden. Trump’s dream of losing the popular vote and winning the Electoral College in the fall would be a foregone conclusion.

But.

This is Trump we’re talking about, so he’s going to self-own. I’m not prepared to say his self-own will be existential. He’s just too lucky for that to be an issue. But the context of his ultimate, inevitable victory in the fall may be a bit more different than he would like. He’s such a malignant force in American politics that 60% of the electorate is going to be seething about House Trump’s surreal control of America going into his second term. How that might manifest itself is anyone’s guess.

My best guess is he gets impeached again at some point in his second term, but by that point, Don Jr. or Steve King will be his veep so, lulz.

Another option is Trump implodes or explodes on a mental level just as the crisis reaches its denouement and there’s a momentary pause in the rise of the Fourth Reich and the Thousand Year Trump. I don’t want that to happen. I really don’t. That would be among the absolute worst case scenarios out there — I mean, do we really want all 328 million of us to see a picture of Trump’s cock on our phones via the Presidential Alert System?

Or, to put it another way, the only way House Trump doesn’t endup on top because of this crisis is Trump himself. That’s it. Otherwise, no matter what, they will be far more powerful, far quicker than they might have been otherwise in two years.

But, sadly, there are some other things that could make what might otherwise be a short, scary event in our nation’s history turn into not The Little One, but, THE BIG ONE. Besides Trump’s generally fuckery, there is The Gray Plague and the WuFlop to worry about.

If the Gray Plague begins to strike in any big fashion, then that would be a preventable tragedy of such proportions that I don’t want to think about it all that much. It definitely would give one pause for thought. The WuFlop, too, would likely cause so much panic in the United States if a recorded instance of it showed up on TV that the nation might buckle for a few days in abject terror.

Or, put another way, there are simply too many wild card known unknowns for me to properly gauge what is going to happen in the next, say, 60 days. In general, we’re going to get the shit scared out of us a few times, but House Trump will simply grow stronger and more hateful in the end. But if history decides to wake up in a big way, we all –even me — may be shocked by how surreal, how weird things get in a rather abrupt, unpredictable fashion.

History, Please Stay Asleep

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I’m enough of a student of history to know the conditions are there for the next, say, 60 days, to be some of the most surreal, jaw-dropping days in American history. I say this only because of what’s happening in Italy. Italy is imploding and it could very well be they’re us in about 10 days.

I refuse to articulate what I fear my happen because it would be bad taste. But I will note what has happened to Iran because of COVID19 — the entire power structure of the country is now wrapped up in the contagion. Maybe it’s because I like scenarios and to think up stories, but it definitely seems as though it’s possible we may want to slow our collective roll and what may — or may not — happen in American politics long term.

I have no inside information. I’m not a part of the Deep State. I just am well enough versed in the conditions of the pandemic bouncing around the planet right now to know that anything is possible. The Gray Plague. The WuFlop. If either one of those two things make a significant appearance the entire context of the 2020 campaign might not be at all what we think right now.

I don’t want to be right. I really don’t. But I do want to simply prepare myself for the possibility that the best laid plans of mice and men often go astray.

#COVID19 As Trump’s ‘Chernobyl’

Trumplandia.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


First, Trump is nothing more than a political avatar. You could have a hateful catatonic person do a better job than Trump is right now. So, really, I would say even if Trump’s criminally incompetent reponse to COVID19 became an existential threat to House Trump, it would not really matter.

Nothing matters. Lulz.

A million people — mostly elderly could die unnecessary deaths in the next 60 days and nothing would happen to him on a political level. No accountability. Nothing. He will lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College through any means necessary.

So, I guess, really, if you propose that COVID19 might be House Trump’s “Chernobyl,” what you’re really saying is the context of his thuggish regime might be different for 60% of the electorate who isn’t part of the MAGA death cult. And, honestly, any political accountability Trump had would be far enough in the future that he would have plenty of time to name Don Jr. or Steve King his veep. The worst COVID19 becomes, the more Trump has a vested interest in making it politically impossible to get rid of House Trump by replacing Pence with Don Jr.

Now, as I keep saying — I have no personal ill will towards Trump. I could care less. I would like to him to spend the rest of his life in prison, but I with him the best of health otherwise. But given he keeps shaking hands, it is worth contemplating what might happen if he was sufficiently incapacitated that Pence became president and was in the position to name his replacement.

As I’ve written before, there’s only one person he would name: Ivanka Trump. He would do so because she would be a place holder while he figured out what else he mind do to get into the good graces of the MAGA base who currently don’t care for him. He would say Ivanka as a “threefer:” a woman, a Jewish person and a Trump. She would be approved by the Senate at lightening speed if there was any type of crisis because, well, the MAGA coward Republican Senators wouldn’t want Nancy Pelosi so close to the Presidency.

The point is, however, that barring something, uh, historic (?), because MAGA is now a death cult, House Trump will use this crisis to simply consolidate power even more, more quickly. If traditional political gravity did begin to work again with House Trump, we might be in for a few surreal days. We would look at each other in astonishment as Trump’s enablers rather abruptly changed their tune.

But that’s so fantastical, I just don’t want to waste time on that. In the end, it won’t be COVID19 that is House Trump’s Chernobyl, it will be Trump himself. In other words, he such a self-own artist that the only way the traditional rules of politics ever come back in regards to him will be he goes so fucking insane that we will all grow quite well awaited with this size and shape of his cock. That’s it. That’s the only way I could possible see House Trump being knocked off its feet — everyone in America gets a presidential cock pic via the Presidential Alert System at the height of a historic pandemic.

Even then, it’s debatable.

We’ll probably forget it soon enough, like we do everything else with him. Even if Trump nukes us all to hell, Hugh Hewitt will continue to be a Trump apologist in some bunker.

Lulz?

Possible Dangers Ahead #COVID19

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I can tell from the Webstats of this site that absolutely no one cares about anything I have to say on this matter, but I’m going to humor myself and layout the possible dangers ahead of us.

The key thing is — we’re probably in for about 60 days of exponential growth in COVID19 cases, then they will subside rather abruptly. That seems to be what has happened in China, Singapore and South Korea. It may linger and come back in the fall, but for the time being, this initial outbreak is on path to do something along the lines of what Trump rambled about. It may “magically” vanish sometime in May. Trump will use this as proof that he is, in fact, the Son of God and why even have an election?

Having said all that, let’s go through some of the risks of the next 60 days.

The Gray Plague (Rest Homes)
This will be a key element of how severe this particular outbreak of COVID19 is going to be. If it gets into the rest home system, what would otherwise be a painful, brief situation might turn into a real-life horror movie. There are 15,600 rest homes with 1.4 million residents. If what happened in Kirkland County is any indication of what is possible, then things might get really astonishly bad on that front at some point in the next 60 days.

The Gray Plague (Political)
This is probably the volatile danger we face. A lot of the levers of power in the United States are control by the statically elderly. If a large portion of the Federal government was culled by COVID19 in a very short amount of it in the next 60 days, it might throw us all for a loop in a rather historic fashion. Some pretty basic assumptions we are making about America’s political future over the next 18 months may be thrown into doubt. I’m not advocating, I’m just explicating. This is simply an unknown wildcard that could scramble things in some rather dramatic, unexpected and surreal ways. Or not. Who knows. I can’t predict the future. It’s just something to be aware of.

Violence (Racial)
We live in the dumbest timeline. When you have a deranged racist asshole as president, it’s not too difficult to assume that his moron MAGA followers may attack Asians for being “responsible” for COVID19 if things grow dire at some point over the coming 60 day crisis. It will be a national shame that will linger for decades and spawn a lot of hand wringing and political discourse. About 40 years from now, Congress will have to apologize at gun-point when AOC’s junta demands it after it overthrows President Barron Trump.

Violence (Political Mob)
The American political system is about as taunt as it could be. When Republicans gleefully — and conspicuously — embrace election help from Russian, then, well, lulz? If things get really bad, if only briefly, there could be some pretty surreal — and unprecedented — violence. I could see it go something like this — Trump goes bonkers and goes transactional on Twitter. His followers begin to attack celebrities and members of the press. I could see a mob of them rushing, say 30 Rock, and gutting it. Of course, the 60% of the electorate that is growing to hate House Trump would likely respond in kind and the offices of FOX News might meet a similar fate. Or something. There could be a brief, surreal “Terror” as the two sides piss each other off. It might even be The Little Terror, in the sense that while not that many people die, it’ll shock us that it happened at all.

Violence: (Governmental)
My home state of Virginia is a pretty much the sweet spot for some sort of brief, insane, attempt to overthrow the state government by moron Confederate gun nut cosplayers. I don’t know how exactly it would happen, but if there was, say a week or so when bonkers Trump was ranting about how much the Deep State was out to get him, I could see some sort of spontaneous attempt to overthrow the Virginia state government in Richmond. It would probably have a very John Brown at Harper’s Ferry vibe to it. But that’s really taking the what is possible and taking it to its logical extreme.

Economic
The fundamentals of the economy are fine. We’ll bounce back, probably pretty quick. But there’s a good chance that the economy will lock up and crash for the duration of the most severe part of the crisis. This would probably scare the shit out of the average person, especially since we have no leadership and what national leadership we have is racist and demagogic. I would go so far as to say that all is happening is a recession that may have already been brewing in the economy may happen a few months earlier than it might have otherwise have done. After the initial shock, the average might not even notice.

Wildcard: The WuFlop
If there are any major recorded instances of the WuFlop (or whatever you want to call it, I’m being racist, I just don’t know the scientific term yet), that might set off a major panic. If you see someone simply pass out out of the blue, that’s bad. But for them to go to next step and start to convulse uncontrollably, that’s even worse. That will be something of an eye raising event.

But, really, the issue is, while there are some major wildcards floating around, at this point, everything we assume will happen in the coming months will happen. Trump will lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College. He will consolidate power. He will weatherize the ICE Camps. There will be American Enabling Acts via a Constitutional Convention. The Thousand Year Trump will be established.

#COVID19 Threat Assessment For March 9th: Back In Black

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


There must be a psychologically term for when you reach the crisis moment you’ve feared and then think to yourself, “Gee, this isn’t as bad as I expected.” I felt that a lot today. Psychologically, I’m about two weeks ahead of everyone, and I’m feeling rather calm. It was interesting, however, noticing how many cable news anchors were wearing black today. They were taking the pandemic seriously, if no one else.

The Economy
I have said for some time now, that our metric should be saving lives at this point, not the stock market. I would, in fact, write it off for the time being. Do whatever is necessary to save as many lives as possible, even if it spooks the markets. But, in a sense, we’re now so far beyond the ability to warn the market in advance about this that, well, we’re all very fucked. We should have let the steam out of the market slowly over the last, say six weeks, not wait until the entire economy implodes over a 48 hour period as the severity of this situation grows apparent and extreme “social distancing” is mandated by state after state.

Continuation of Government
This is, for the moment, a low level threat. Trump is so oblivious as to his own personal risk that he’s freaking out about some Deep State operative journalist intentionally getting infected to hurt him that he doesn’t realize that he should stop shaking people’s hands altogether. But there he was, shaking people’s hands. We know from Iran that it’s possible for the power structure of a nation to become immobilize by COVID19 and given how poorly we are managing this situation, there’s on reason to believe the same thing won’t happen to us. All of Congress — especially the older members — may be, well, “indisposed” pretty soon. We’re not prepared for what happens when COVID19 lops off the entire Federal government’s political command and control infrastructure.

A Political Gray Plague
Don’t sleep on how history is often made by some rather prosaic events. That a bunch of bonkers CPAC attendees were not on Capitol Hill at this point could be huge. They could endup being some of the only law makers not knock out of commission as the crisis advances. They will, of course, use this to consolidate power and, like, found a real-life Gilead. If you think this is great possibility, then, well, fuck you, you piece of shit. If you think the best case scenario of a pandemic is a dystopian state the, fuck off and eat shit. Or, they could simply be overwhelmed by the crisis and be responsible for the military stepping in to keep the nation safe. There are a lot of known unknowns on this front. I just don’t know how bad things may get. If we go the Iranian route, they will get very bad, indeed. It gives me no pleasure to contemplate how dark things may get on that front.

“Crisis”
Remember, history is still asleep right now. The Queen is well. The President is well. The Pope is fine. Biden is fine. Sanders is fine. All is well. No one has dropped from the WuFlop in America, or at least recorded having done so. There is no indication that the Kirkland rest home situation has been replicated elsewhere. If we manage to get through the next two weeks without some jaw-dropping history being made, then, great. I’ll be quite content. I do have a novel to develop. The next two weeks are crucial, however.

“Death Cult”
I just don’t know on this one. For MAGA thought leaders to distance themselves from The Dear Leader, things would have to get so horrific that it just wouldn’t be worth it. For them to finally, like, tell the truth and stop worrying about Hillary Clinton’s email server, things would have to be so demonstrably dire that it just wouldn’t be worth it. That’s the thing that Twitter liberals keep missing. They’re so exciting about a pandemic giving them a potential policy advantage they they totally miss the astonishing human toll we would all have to go through to get it. It will be a tragedy and we will only give it value later, out of desperation and grief.

Trump Hasn’t Bit Bonkers…Yet
Trump isn’t taking this seriously, yet. While his plutocrat friends are nervous, the base is obviously not concerned. When THEY are concerned, then, well, YIKES. When the base makes it clear that they are unhappy with his performance — if that ever happens — then Trump could snap mentally in a rather dramatic fashion. Historic fashion. Like, oh my God, what is happening fashion.

Anyway, no one listens to me. I have a novel to develop.

The Fortnight That Shook The World #COVID19

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

“These are the times that try men’s souls,” as Thomas Paine said.

You could not write a more surreal, disturbing scenario as is about to begin. In large part, what we’re facing is a problem of perception. For the time being, we’re going to be in free fall until the psychological “re-calibration” that needs to take place is wrapped up. I am beginning to believe, however, that this is going to be a really bumpy two weeks on a global scale.

Things will stabilize after that, however. While there are a lot unknowns going forward, it’s possible that COVID19 really will begin to subside dramatically in April. Trump will crow that he was right all along and because of the personal fidelity of the MAGA base and his ratfucking of Joe Biden as part of the campaign, he will, again, cruise a popular vote loss and an Electoral College win. It may be just one vote, but he’s going to win.

But.

A lot can happen in two weeks. A whole lot. So, even if things stabilize sometime in April, the world may be so changed by that point that Trump may, at last, find a minor amount of “accountability” on his hands. He will still win the general election, of course, because, lulz, but the context will be a little bit different.

But.

If you really want to be a bit more adventitious in your scenario, you might two things might so shake up the whole world on a historic and political level in the next two weeks that when we finally catch our breath, we won’t recognize the world we now live in.

If the Gray Plague strikes, if even for a severe two weeks, that, in itself, is a wild card I can’t predict. If we count the dead in 10s of thousands, not hundreds, then, that’s kind of a bad PR situation for House Trump. Maybe. But MAGA is a death cult, so lulz.

But.

If the Gray Plague struck the right type of old person, then, that, too, might at least make House Trump a tiny bit more uncomfortable than it’s used to being. It’s not like their enables in and out of government are going to actually care that Trump’s historic, criminal mismanagement of all of this costs lives because, well, they’ve invested their entire life, entire identity into the Trump Train and, lulz.

But.

If things, even for about two weeks, grew extremely severe and not only did the Gray Plague strike, but there were multiple recorded instances of the WuFlop, then, and only then, might House Trump face an existential threat. It might be a little bit more difficult for Hugh Hewitt to defend Trump if 100,000 elderly people die in two weeks, but I’m sure he’ll try. Or he’ll just freak out and blame Asian people for and say they have to be put in the ICE camps for “national security” reasons. I’m not joking. That’s a very real possibility. The WuFlop, too, would likely highten the crisis to unprecedented levels. The bolts of our political and economic system might pop off. And even then, it would be, at most one election cycle. Give them four years and Don Jr. will, at last, wear the purple robes of the House Trump throne. So, we might have, about two years of a functioning government before the usual bullshit pops up again and the new Republican House impeaches the Democratic president out of spite.

But.

The last “but” is the darkest — Trump goes completely nuts at some point in the next two weeks. I have no idea what happens then. But I do believe Trump’s enablers would defend anything he did far, far, far longer than any of us might be willing to admit.

Lulz!

‘危機’ — #Pandemic Era America #COVID19

Let’s rock.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


While MAGA “thought leaders” like Hugh Hewitt are begging us to remember that COVID19 came from Wuhan, China, that’s not the reason why I put the Chinese in the title.

As I understand it, ‘危機’ are the characters for “danger” and “opportunity.” In other words, while the next, say, two weeks are going to suck, there is also some opportunity for those willing to take a risk and show some courage and leadership.

The first thing to do, of course, is to admit that there is, in fact a crisis. Once you do that, you can readjust your thinking accordingly. We’re probably going to have something of a “re-calibration” of society and the economy over the next two weeks.

But the fundamentals of the global economy are strong enough that once the re-calibration wraps up, things will bounce back. Though, I will note, American psychology is pretty unusual. It is so extremely alien to us for there to be a mass, rolling crisis like this, which is comparable to, say, an invasion, that some pretty long-standing habits and traditions may simply melt away.

Add to this how polarized America is and how House Trump is prepare to lie, cheat and steal to maintain power and that “danger” character may get something of a work out. In other words, this could be the thing that doesn’t give us Universal Health Care, but Gilead.

It could really be that bad.

The point is — this is going to be a massive tragedy. So massive that we will only give it value long after the fact out of desperation. Hopefully, maybe, we might come together after it begins. But more likely than not, there will be political violence on the part of MAGA fucktards who think it’s all some sort of weird Deep State conspiracy.

Or people like Hugh Hewitt will endup stirring up forces they might — just might live to regret. If fucking MAGA decides to start murdering Asian people out of a fear of “Wuhan flu,” then, well, we will know whose hands that blood will be on. They will whine that they aren’t responsible for other people’s actions, but history will record the truth.

But once we make it through this crisis, we may have something of a return to the 50s as everyone decides they want to settle down and have kids after getting the shit scared out of them for 18 months.

‘To Schlapp’ #COVID19 #Pandemic #CoronaVirus

A new verb?
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


As any student of history will tell you — the writer’s have a wicked sense of humor. In fact, I would say whomever is writing human history definitely likes irony. Before I go any further, let me stress that while I hate MAGA’s idology with a white hot fucking rage, I have nothing personal against any of them. I don’t want any physical harm to come to any of them, though I would squeal with glee if Trump spent the rest of his life in prison.

So, imagine how my eyebrows rose when I heard that the Dear Leader’s favorite cock holster Matt Schlapp not only hung out with some dude who went to CPAC with COVID19, he shook POTUS’ hand at some point later. I would go so far that if we could somehow prove that any potential COVID19 infection of POTUS came from that contact that we might have a new verb in the English language: “to schlapp.”

When you schlapp, you harm the thing you love the most.

I really don’t want any physical harm to come to Trump, or Schlapp, for that matter. Trump is doing his best to destroy himself all on his own without me hoping for any physical harm against him. Live long and prosper, Trump…in prison.

But, as I have said repeatedly, nothing as of right now gives me any indication that after all is said and done, Trump will still in be in power being a tyrant. And even if he somehow does leave office, his replacement will be someone equal (Pence) or worse (Rep. Steve King.)

Though, if really wanted to get surreal and dark, you might say if we start to have any continuation of government issues — which I definitely don’t want — that we may endup with a President Ivanka.

Ugh.

A Fortnight Is A Long Time #COVID19 #Pandemic

Matt Schlapp — he’s never going to get woke, even if we all die from Trump going insane.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Given what China was able to do, I’m beginning to think that maybe there’s some hope. Maybe. Maybe Trump’s hope that COVID19 will just vanish in a few weeks will come true and he can go back to plotting his consolation of power to found the Fourth Reich.

Is it possible that we may have a big spike in infections for about two weeks then it will subside like in China? I don’t know. I’m not an expert. The issue is, of course Trump. In fact, I would go so far as to say Trump’s mental state is probably the most mediated crisis we face with what happens with COVID19

Even if we have a best case scenario and after a significant spike in cases over the course of the next fortnight the cases drop, Trump could very well snap mentally in the meanwhile. When it becomes apparent to him that the previously absolute personal fidelity he enjoys with the MAGA base might not be as absolute as it has been, he might just snap. Either he’s going to implode or explode. I honestly don’t know which one.

If he implodes, then we’ll have something of a Pence Regency where we see Pence all the time and Trump just tweets really weird things — like usual. The only tip off we might have is he simply stops doing public appearances or any of his Nuremberg rallies. If he explodes, meanwhile, that will make an already bad situation far, far worse. He will begin to tweet really passive-aggressive things. He will abuse the “Presidential Alert System” in some astonishing ways. It will be a gross, historic national embarrassment for the ages. Trump will at last be seen by all for what he really is — an American Caligula.

But, again, it may be that we have a really, really wild two weeks or so (maybe until the end of April) and then things settle down. I just don’t know exactly the dynamic of what happened in Wuhan. Or, put another way, since this is a process, not an event, events are moving so fast and I don’t have a frame of reference to know what’s important and what’s not.

One thing I will say — things may get so bad so fast that even if they subside equally as dramatically in early April, Trump is not going to walk away from this unscathed politically. The economy is probably going to lock up in the near term under the best of circumstances. The fundamentals are sound, so I guess it’s possible Trump’s vision of losing the popular vote and winning the Electoral College will, again, happen and, well, lulz!

Or, to put it another way — nothing has happened yet to indicate Trump will suffer any long term political confluences even if some of the more dire things I’m worried about — The Gray Plague, the Wuflop — happen. As always, there’s only one person Trump has to worry about in real terms — himself.

If he snaps and finally does something so astonishing insane that even, say, Matt Schlapp has to admit, at last, that maybe we’ve enjoyed the tax cuts enough and Pence can give him just as many young hack MAGA judges as Trump.

Oh, who am I kidding, Trump is the anti-Christ and that’s why MAGA supports him. Even if Trump turns the earth into a post-nuclear hellscape, MAGA will just say everyone who was vaporized really went to heaven as part of the Rapture.

Ugh.

V-Log: Idle Rambling

Shelton Bumgarner

This is me talking about the Corona Virus, The Gray Plague, MAGA and the novel I’m developing.