I saw something rather alarming on Twitter today –apparently, there is a growing belief that the Belarusians are going to attack Ukraine in the west. This is a “not great, Bob” moment because one might make the assumption that such an attack would be directed against the city of Lviv.
What the what?
Add to this that such an attack would hug the border between Ukraine and NATO, holy shit, it makes you think that Putin through his Bealrusian proxies really is in his fuck around and find out phase of the Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. (Which, if it last much longer, I’m going to have to get rid of the “winter” part of its designation.)
It makes you wonder. Is it possible WW3 has started and we just don’t know it yet? Does Putin want a direct war with NATO? Such an idea, on paper, makes absolutely no sense. In fact, it only makes any sense in the context of Russia forming some sort of Axis with China, the DPRK and Iran.
Otherwise, what the what?
We’re reaching a point where we’re sort of in a make or break moment in recent modern world history. Either Putin escalates in a rather dramatic fashion and we see the end of the WW2 liberal order and something akin to WW3, or we punt the structural problems of the modern geopolitical world down the road until the United States answers its autocracy or civil war question in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.
Thankfully — I guess — we’re probably going to get our answer as to what’s going to happen next with a matter of days or weeks. Things are too unstable. Either Putin loses, or in a desperate effort to win he destroys everything.
After decades of being half-away awake, history is now wide awake and ready to boogie. As part of that suddenly being awake, we face the prospect of the Russians and the Chinese making common cause against Pax Americana. This new Axis might also, along the way recruit Iran and the DPRK.
For the moment, this is rather fanciful.
China has a vested interest — for the time being — in Pax Americana existing so it can slowly rise peacefully within its context. The Chinese are very smart. They know they’re not quite ready to strike in a big away against, say Taiwan, so, lulz, let the Americans have a circle jerk over cancel culture without any major regional war in Asia to worry about.
And, yet, the case could be made that China might see what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine and think NOW is the time to strike. The United States is historically weakened by internal division and the careening existential choice of autocracy or civil war in the 2024 – 2025 time frame.
It’s possible that at some point in the near future all of us will be surprised when there’s a geopolitical tet-a-tet between Putin and Xi and the entire world’s post-WW2 liberal order collapses. China will send Russia arms for its war against Ukraine and Russia will sell China oil. Meanwhile, Xi could lean on the DPRK to attack the South Koreans as some sort of geopolitical distraction for the Americans so China can attack Taiwan.
The Iranians attack Israel and or Iraq to get in on the fun.
Remember, there are no assurances the Good Guys — us — would win such a new series of regional wars, or something that the press would call WW3. It could be that the United States either becomes a MAGA Fortress America or has a civil war and, as such, a new Age of Autocracies is established.
Or, it’s possible that a few billion people during a WW3 for various reasons and when we come out the other side with something akin to United Earth. The process of getting to that point would suck royally, but in the end humanity might find the wherewithal to save itself from itself.
I’ve always thought Joe Rogan was something of a grifter when it came to giving otherwise alienated men something to latch onto. Just because you’re earnest in your masculinity, doesn’t excuse you if you show signs of misogyny, racism or fascism.
But here we are, Rogan is hugely popular in large because a lot of men are struggling to adapt to this strange new world we live in where many “woke” people think that, by definition, being male is bad. Slay the patriarchy and all that.
Then there is Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine. He gives me hope as a man because he doesn’t have any gimmick like Joe Rogan. He’s just a dude doing traditional dude stuff in a traditional dude manner. So, it makes me wonder what would happen if Rogan in all of his earnest masculinity were to interview Zelenskyy.
I think in the end, Rogan would be a puppy dog to Zelenskyy. I say this because Rogan doesn’t have the weight that Zelenskyy has and he’s always angling in to come across as reasonable, even he’s interviewing a fucking bonkers fascist. As such, Rogan frames his conversations in a way that grades people who are demonstrably bad so they they seem just misunderstood.
There is a reason why Rogan is a alt-right, New Right, MAGA gateway drug. He has a tendency to want it both ways — he wants to have power and yet when it gets called on some dumb thing he says, he does a Jon Stewart and says, ‘Why are you listening to me in the first place?”
Anyway, it would definitely be illuminative for Rogan to interview Zelenskyy. Hopefully the war will be over soon so that can happen.
I’m going to shut up about this very soon, but occasionally it takes a few days for one of my ideas to work itself out of my mind. Anyway, the problem with anything like a “New Masculinity” book is because of the woke media narrative we live with, any book that addresses traditional male gender roles in a positive way will be attacked and derided.
The freaky weirdos have won, if you will. (Wink.)
Now, some context. I only even talk about this in this way because I’m growing more and more alarmed by the rise of the fascist MAGA New Right in the United States. One way to slow down — but not stop — the existential choice of fascist autocracy or civil war in the general 2024 – 2025 timeframe is to give one of core elements of the MAGA New Right, alienated Traditionalists men, something to embrace.
In other words, anything to do with traditional male gender roles is a fucking clusterfuck of different groups feeling they have the right to control what that even means. Or, put another way, if someone were to articulate a New Masculinity, then maybe you could walk all Joe Rogan fans off the cliff they’re on where they’re one step away from embracing fascism.
Rather than addressing the issue head on, I think I would hide the notion of New Masculinity in a leadership book. In the male mind, leadership is equated with a traditional male concept. (Even though this is obviously wrong — women make great leaders.)
But the audience for this book would be a college educated Rogan fan. You take something they like — Rogan’s earnest masculinity — and instead of that being a gateway drug into fascism, you give them the option of framing modern masculinity — and leadership — in the context of people like Washington, Lincoln, TR, FDR, Churchill and Zelensky.
So, in a sense, using subtext, you tell these professional men — who should know better about being MAGA New Right -that it’s ok to be a Traditional male in the modern, woke era. You use Zelensky as an avatar, a totem for modern male leadership.
Anyway. Absolutely no one listens to me. And I’m sure if they listened to me with this suggestion I’ll be canceled.
According to the current media narrative, using traditional male concepts as part of traditional male behavior is something to disparage. I’m very empathetic to the crux of this argument.
Zelenskyy
And, yet, just like the slogan “defund the police” is really more about “demilitarizing the police,” so, too, is “slay the patriarchy” really more about the male dominating world being forced to accept the equality of women on a basic level than destroying the world of men in its entirety. (At least, I hope so, for my own sake. Yikes.)
But both slogans are easily corrupted by the MAGA New Right as a bludgeon against a very crucial element of any democracy’s body politic — conservative Traditionalist men.
With this in mind, the conventional wisdom among Blue Check thought leaders in the West at the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian Winter War was that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, would fold and run away from Kyiv to a more secure location like Lviv in the western part of the country.
But this did not happen.
Instead, Zelenskyy did a very traditional male leader thing — he stood and fought.
That Zelenskyy would do something so basic, so human, so traditional, so masculine without the benefit of a flipping the script in any way came across as something of a shock to Western observers. Zelenskyy was just a traditional male doing traditional things in a traditional way. There was nothing particularly innovative about his leadership style other than it existed and he as just a regular guy doing leading his people in a time of crisis.
This definitely goes against the woke narrative where the only way we can accept leadership is if there is some spicy twist to things. Zelenskyy is not transgendered, nor does he quibble about his pronouns (as far as I know.) He’s just a dude.
So, I propose some discourse over the possibility of what I call New Masculinity. This would be an acceptance that we can both validate and update traditional male concepts without going out of our way to alinate Traditionalist men who are so enraged by the woke agenda that they turn to nothing short of fascism — the MAGA New Right.
It seems to me that there is a possibility that the entire Western world is careening towards a moment when the type of male leadership that Zelenskyy has displayed will be desperately needed. It does not take a soothsayer to notice how unstable the United States is growing and the high risk of a “Great Reset” or “Fourth Turning” around the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.
Maybe we could use Zelenskyy as something of an avatar, a totem that Traditionalists men could imbue with their own, non-woke narrative. I have my doubts that this Hail Mary plot to take the steam out of the misogynistic MAGA New Right will work. But it is something to at least discuss.
The reason I’m doubtful is what I’m proposing is nuanced and subtle. In the extreme polarization of Blue and Red that America currently exists in, the moment Traditionalists adopted my plan, Woke culture would freak the fuck out. Woke people would make fun of the New Masculinity and deride it for not being attune enough to the needs of the modern world. Slay the patriarchy, and all that, don’t you know.
But the New Masculinity of Zelenskyy does produce results. It seems as though Zelenskyy may soon be mentioned in the same breath as Lincoln, FDR and Churchill. He is doing what needs to be done to save his nation from tyranny.
The truly surreal element of all of this is, of course, that because the MAGA New Right is so beholden to the dream of a Russian-style autocratic white Christian ethno state for America, they are wilfully oblivious to the benefits of adopting Zelenskyy as their own.
As I said, I doubt anything will come of this. And if it does, it will probably be corrupted for selfish reasons so it seen as nothing more than the 90s Men’s Movement with a different name or, even worse, some variation of the freaky weirdo Incel movement. But, again, Zelenskyy’s bravery in the face of adversity at least opens the door to some discourse on how he might be an icon for New Masculinity.
American men have, for about a generation now, been derided and castigated as part of the monovalent “patriarchy.” It all kind of creeped up on us. Now, I’m coming at this issue as a rabid anti-MAGA New Right person. I fucking hate MAGA with a white hot rage, to the point that I’m writing five novels that lay out — in subtext — how and why I fucking hate the movement so much.
Zelensky
Anyway.
The point is –I’m very empathetic to women who want to “slay the patriarchy.” And, yet, the point could be made that “slay the patriarchy” is kind of like “defund the police.” It is a slogan that is easily used to get a crucial element of the body politic — “Traditionalists” to join the fucking MAGA New Right and destroy that precious commodity known as democracy.
And, remember, it is actually pretty rare for there to be a “vibe shift” in the way men perceive themselves. The thing that would tip off a vibe shift — how men appear — isn’t really applicable. Dudes are dudes. Either you’re wearing a suit to work and have power and influence or you don’t.
So, I’ve sat up and taken notice at how it’s beginning to look as though the standard, traditional masculinity of Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky is beginning to show results. What’s key about all of this is he doesn’t follow the current American media narrative about what it means to be masculine. If this was a Hollywood movie, Zelensky would be a woman struggling to run a nation while “slaying the patriarchy.”
But, surprise, he’s a dude doing traditional dude things in a traditional dude way. There’s no plot twist or flipping the script. It’s the traditional narrative of a man rising to the occasion on the world state in an effort to protect the collective home and hearth of his besieged nation.
So, we now have something of a cultural and historical question before us. Is this just a blip as part of a broader, macro trend towards traditional male values continuing to be disparaged or is there a change that we’re on the cusp of a “New Masculinity” that harkens back to the leadership of Lincoln, FDR and Churchill.
I honestly don’t know. For that to happen, I think we would have to actually have, like, uh, WW3. Only a major global war would force us to appricate the value of traditional male roles and concepts. I’ve already suggested something along these lines when I posited that our current “woke” culture will end around 2024 – 2025 when we decide as a nation if we’re going to be an autocracy or have a civil war.
So, I don’t know. It’s all very much up in the air. It could go either way.
I hope I don’t sound too sexist, but, plot twist, men and women are different. And one of those many differences comes in, shall we say, how the two genders have a mythical “vibe shift.”
Women are far more dynamic than men. Vibe shifts happen for women almost every fashion season. Haircuts come and go at light speed. Fashion trends pop up out of nowhere then vanish as quickly as they came.
Men, meanwhile, are a lot slower with their vibe shifts. Because most professional, and, as such influential, men just wear business suits, vibe shifts take on a whole different nature.
Which brings us to Volodymyr Zelensky. But for how fucked up and divided America is at the moment, I might suggest that it would be the RIGHT, not the LEFT that would make Zelensky an icon. Zelensky behavior of late taps into the Western man’s self-perception of what leadership and masculinity is supposed to be. The people you would think would embrace this — conservative Traditionalists — are so busy having a MAGA New Right circle jerk that they are completely oblivious to what a potent icon Zelensky could be for the things that are near and their political agenda.
So, in a sense, ETTD strikes again — but for Trump being a massive suck up Putin, the MAGA New Right would have a natural inclination to try to make Zelensky “theirs” because it’s unlikely he has time to worry about what his fucking pronouns are at any particular moment.
And, yet, they have their head up their asses so much that they simply can not, will not, break from Trump and do what political logic would otherwise dictate. Crazy man. Just crazy.
The idea that we consider “WW3” is actually a spectrum of different scenarios, with The End Of The World being on one end and just a big old lulz at the other end. A lot of what would be “WW3” would be something that was marketed as such by the press.
The most likely scenario for something called “WW3” would be two or more regional wars happening at the same time. So, if China attacked Taiwan because it felt Russia was a brother in arms, then, that, legitimately, could be called WW3.
But no matter what, it’s at least possible that WW3 has already begun, we just don’t realize it yet. If Russia used low-grade battlefield nukes on Ukraine, then the slide into an actual fighting war between NATO and Russia would likely accelerate. And given that the 80 year old taboo against using nukes would no longer exist, Taiwan would definitely begin to look far more enticing to China. And, of course, you have the wildcard of the DPRK floating around.
AND — and this is a very important and — you have to take into account that the US is careening towards unprecedented instability starting the moment the Republicans take control of Congress. And that instability will only get worse and worse as we approach the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.
So, it’s possible that in hindsight, 2022 will be seen not as 1939, but as 1937, the year when Japan attacked China in a big way and laid the groundwork for WW2. Or, put another way, you could go so far as to say you can count in months the time we have of lingering “normal” life before all hell really breaks loose.
The real question is what will the world look like once we get through this Great Reset or Fourth Turning (or whatever you want to call it.) Either humanity will be run by a bunch of autocrats or we’ll be even more united and able to deal with Big Issues like global climate change.
A few million (billion?) people may have died to get us to that latter endgame, but hopefully their deaths won’t have been in vain. But let me be clear — the United States is ripe for revolution / civil war in the coming years. If you were looking at America as different nation than ours this would be clear. And, honestly, I think the only thing that’s stopped us from collapsing is interia and the general laid back national personality of Americans. We’re not French, afterall.
The nightmare scenario we face at the moment, of course, is that Putin is no longer a rational actor. As such, the same screwy logic that had him go into Ukraine might cause him to attack NATO in some way. Either by, say, attacking a convoy supplying Ukraine or attacking a Baltic state or states.
That would be when Putin and NATO would face an existential choice. Either they figured out some way to reduce tensions, or they went at it. I read Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising novel when I was a kid and much of what I learned from it way back when it still applicable. Just because WW3 started, doesn’t mean it would have to go nuclear.
What I could imagine happening is some sort of geopolitical tet-a-tet between the Usual Suspects of nations that would have a vested interest in ending the 75 year old Pax America. If Putin was somehow able to get China, the DPRK and Iran to make a full-blow attack against American global dominance, then we’re going to the show.
In a way, I think the DPRK would be the lynchpin of any attempt on Putin’s bonkers calculations. The DPRK is so strange, there is at least a chance they might be leaned on to attack the South Koreans in a big way, without really realizing they were being used as a pawn for Russia and China’s bigger goal of re-arranging the global order.
The DPRK is a unique nuclear state in that it has the means and opportunity to destroy a major American city without ending anything but itself. In other words, the DPRK has ICBMs and H-bombs that it could use to zap LA, NYC or DC…and in the end all that would happen is the USA would, in turn, bomb the DPRK into the Stone Age.
But using a City Killer on NYC or LA would leave a serious mark on the USA, to the point that Russia and China could re-arrange the global political order to their liking without sacrificing any of their own people. This is a real stretch to some extent, but if Putin is no longer a rational actor, then it’s logic that we at least have to mull.
The thing is, once WW3 started, by definition, the peace and prosperity that billions have enjoyed since WW2 would come to a rather abrupt end. There would be no value to it and we would only give it narrative after it was over. So, in short — the bad guys might win. The USA could be left crippled after a limited nuclear exchange with the DPRK and Russia and China would fill the void.
Meanwhile, Iran and Israel might blow each other up, as might India and Pakistan. A real New World Order might emerge, with China, specifically, having a clear shot at dominating the world both economically and politically. Russia might also rise in the context of global climate change that no one seems all that interested in doing anything about.
What’s more, even if we manage to escape WW3 in the near term, around 2024 – 2025, all the conditions are there for it to happen, anyway, since the US is either going to become Fortress Autocratic America or have a civil war. In either case, everything will be scrambled for the first time in around 80 years. It will be The Great Reset or The Fourth Turning, depending on how bonkers or conspiratorial you are.
There’s a lot of talk these days about the possibility of World War Three happening. Well, let’s think about how it might happened and what it would, in practical terms, look like.
The first issue is we don’t know if Putin is a rational actor or not on the world stage. But, then, we didn’t expect him to invade Ukraine and he did that, so we have to take seriously that he might go after the Baltic states who are members of NATO.
If he did that, then, yes, in a legal sense WW3 would begin. But a lot would depend on what happened after that. If Putin just fucked with the Baltic states, that wouldn’t really be WW3 unless there was some sort of limited nuclear exchange. Him just scaring the shit out of the Baltics enough that it was considered an act of war and caused them to invoke NATO’s Article 5…would just be really meaningless – but scary — events.
What Putin would need would be an Axis of some sort. He would need other major powers who wanted to challenge Pax America as well to act in unison with him. This would require, of course, Putin to convince President Xi of China to attack Taiwan — potentially with tactical nukes after Putin had broken that particular taboo himself in Ukraine.
Xi might, in turn, lean on the North Koreans to go after the the South Koreans as some sort of distraction. And, if Putin was REALLY LUCKY, he might be able to rope Iran into this particular clusterfuck as well.
As all of this was happening, you would also probably have India and Pakistan going at it as well. So, there you go. That would be WW3 and there would be no assurances that either Pax America survives or that, well, any of us survives.
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