Tag: Fuck MAGA Fuck Trump

There’s A 50 / 50 Chance Trump Will Be Deposed If He Wins

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that all the fucking smug Twitter liberals dance around whenever they hysterically talk about what a second Trump term would be like is the practical implications of what happens if Trump goes “full tyrant” starting in 2025.

Now, I have to point out that the general macro political trend in the United States is towards autocracy. In fact, at the moment, the United States is an autocracy with an autocrat. In other words, but for the fact that MAGA isn’t in power, we would be an autocracy NOW.

What’s more, if history had picked ANY ONE ELSE but Trump to guide America into autocracy, it would be done peacefully, gradually and without much fuss. But Trump is SO FUCKING LAZY AND STUPID that there is a really good chance that the moment he’s in power again, he’ll thrash around in a very tyrannical manner.

The key group of people when talking about any possible “overthrow” of Trump would be the people who would otherwise in any transition to autocracy be quite content — Traditionalists. If Trump wasn’t such a fucking moron, he would gradually move the Overton Window of tyranny and by 2028, we would just shrug when magically he was able to run for a third term.

But this is Trump we’re talking about, so there’s a decent chance that Trump will be so dumb and lazy in his move to transition us into autocracy that Traditionalists might actually sit up and take notice. If Trump’s tyranny is as chaotic and egregious as it seems clear it will be, then even Traditionalists might become aghast.

Of course, I have to qualify all of this by saying it’s not like Traditionalists would join in, say, a General Strike. But they might just stand down when it became clear that Trump’s political days were numbered.

There are two ways I could see Trump being deposed.

One is political — his abuse of power is so astonishing that he gets impeached and, because of a successful General Strike, he is somehow, magically successfully impeached in the Senate.

The other, darker possibility is the wheels totally fly off our political system and not even a General Strike is enough to get rid of Trump and when the American economy craters because of the strike, the U.S. Military feels compelled to step in. I suppose they could force SCOTUS to “review” their existing decision on the 14th Amendment insurrection clause and that would be the legal cover they would need to forcibly remove Trump.

But it would not be rainbows an unicorns if we deposed Trump. The moment Trump was removed from office — one way or another — any number of Red States would head for the doors and civil war would start.

So….lulz?

Gaming Out The Implications Of A Biden Win

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

But for the fucking Electoral College, Trump would be a very, very, very weak candidate. And, yet, the Electoral College exists and so, lulz, Trump could eat someone live on TV and he would STILL be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again.

For the sake of argument, let’s pretend somehow we manage to defeat fucking MAGA Nazi Trump — then what?

The first thing that pops into my mind is Trump, scared as shit about going to jail, will demand a National Divorce which would, in turn, prompt a Second American Civil War. On paper, at least, all the conditions are there for Trump to rant about such a thing and any number of states, probably starting with Texas calling up secessionist conventions.

But wait, there’s more.

The issue of Biden’s age is another issue we would have to worry about. There is a greater-than-zero chance that just as we’re about to have a civil war, Biden shuffles off this mortal coil. Talk about chaos!

And, really, even if we secure Biden’s re-election and MAGA ignores Trump’s ranting about the need for a National Divorce, there would be a pretty good chance that Biden would shuffle off this mortal coil and throw the country into the arms of a young, untested new president.

Another issue that I’ve given some thought to is the political implications of Trump, at last, facing some sort of criminal accountability. If Trump loses — and is unsuccessful in starting a civil war — he will, of course, turn around and announce his 2028 bid.

There would sure to be calls to pardon Trump no matter what happens after a Biden win. This would be a real pain in the ass because even if you did it on condition that Trump didn’t run away, he would lie and run again anyway.

So it definitely seems as though no matter what, there is going to be A LOT of political turmoil in the United States starting in late 2024.

MAGA’s Obsession With Banning Contraception Is Extremely Dangerous & Corrosive

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. It is clear to me that MAGA Nazis want to replace the Administrative State with the Moralistic State. The great irony of it all is, of course, if you talk to a lot of Traditionalists they will lulz the idea that MAGA Nazis would come after birth control.

They simply don’t believe it possible.

What makes all of this such a fucking clusterfuck is contraception is, at its heart, not only a moralistic issue, but also an economic one. The thing about the fucking MAGA Nazis is the vessel for their tyranny is ding-dong Trump who could very well, unto himself, cause the collapse of the United States into chaos and anarchy.

Any other Republican in Trump’s historical position could easily escort the United States into autocracy. They would be smooth about it and gradually consolidate power in such a way that most people who weren’t obsessed with politics wouldn’t even notice.

But the person that history has entrusted with transitioning the US into an autocracy is such a fucking lazy idiot that he could very well be deposed in some way through a Blue Glorious Revolution, which, would, in turn cause a civil war because Red States wouldn’t stand for it.

And, yet, there’s just so much unknown about what may happen in late 2024, early 2025. I spend all this time thinking about the absolute worst possible scenario when it’s possible…lulz, we just kind of muddle through. The only reason why I have my doubts about that is if Trump is re-elected he will go out of his way to push America to the brink of collapse.

The Radicalization Of Traditionalists Is Quite Alarming

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the many signs that the bolts are popping off the United States as we careen towards the 2024 presidential election is the clear radicalization of the otherwise principled Traditionalists in my life. Traditionalists are the backbone of any stable democracy and the idea that they would go full MAGA because of “vibes” is very disturbing.

What I mean by “vibes” is the fact that a lot of Traditionalists don’t have a problem with gay people or abortion, but they feel these things should be done in private and with shame attached. In other words, they just don’t want to have to think about it or talk about it. They know being gay or having an abortion exists, but they see them as a “personal problem” that should be treated as personal disaster.

That’s why Traditionalists in principle are against being gay or having an abortion but they would be cool with it if someone in their family turned out to be gay or if they had to have an abortion. Now, I think this means they’re big ol hypocrites, but lulz, America may have a civil war soon because of these “vibe” issues.

The Traditionalist in my family — who I love dearly — have grown so radicalized that their ONLY red line when it comes to MAGA and Trump is the personal. At the moment, they are willing to give up their American birthright of democracy willfully and with a bit of glee if it means abortion is illegal and trans people magically vanish from any form of public discourse.

When I bring up the idea that Trump may go full tyrant on us if he’s re-elected, they dismiss the idea that such a thing is possible because he was all talk the first time, so it makes sense to them that he would be all talk the second go around. And the, in general, support Trump rounding up undocumented people and putting them in camps….even as they just give you a blank stare when you try to tell them the nitty-gritty of such a plan.

“I just want to be left alone,” is their mantra to the point that they don’t give you a yes-or-no answer when you ask them if they would support a National Divorce should Trump lose the 2024 election.

All of this is very personal to me because I *do* think Trump will go full tyrant if he’s re-elected and, as such, there’s every reason to believe that if Trump builds out the infrastructure round up undocumented people he might throw loud mouth cranks like me into the mix as well.

Then and ONLY THEN, will principled Traditionalists take notice. When I get snatched off the street because I won’t stop calling Trump a fucking cocksucker no matter what, THEN they will begin to have second thoughts about their support of Tyrant Trump.

If that is in fact the case, the specter of Trump potentially being deposed in some way begins to become a viable scenario. Talk about bonkers! But, wait, it gets worse — if Trump is deposed in some sort of Blue Glorious Revolution, then, of course, Red States would probably leave the Union in protest.

Ugh.

The Great Choke?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On paper, at least, it definitely seems as though we are careening towards a massive fucking political disaster at some point in late 2024, early 2025. And, yet, no one can predict the future so it’s at least possible that should, somehow, Trump lose that instead of having the United States collapsing into civil war…nothing happens.

Because while at the moment it seems as though we’re cruising into a chaotic MAGA autocracy, there IS a chance that Trump might lose. And as I keep saying, we could have severe political violence in late 2024, early 2025 no matter what happens. Win or lose, Trump could destroy the United States.

But there IS a chance that we’re all overthinking this. It could be that things just aren’t going to be as dire as I think they may be. I say this because while the Right can spew all the bullshit rhetoric they want online, it’s a huge leap into turning that rhetoric into physical violence in the real world.

Remember, it took months and months of Trump ranting in the lead up to January 6th for Trump to cause an insurrection on January 6th. So…I don’t know. It will be interesting to see how, exactly, things work out the moment we learn that Trump has lost the election.

I do think, however, that there is a greater-than-zero chance — no matter what — we could see political events in late 2024, early 2025 unlike anything we’ve seen since the Civil War.

Things Are Quiet

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are pretty quiet at the moment. We’ve had a nice few months of pretty much nothing of note going on. There have been a few blips, but nothing that really made us all sit up and take notice.

It make you wonder what is going to happen.

My fear is, of course, some major Black Swan event is going to happen to upend everything. That’s one of the big differences between, say, South Korea and the United States — while things change all the time in South Korea in the US they stay the same for a long time then everything changes suddenly overnight.

Usually, this happens because of a presidential election.

But, in a sense, we’re still stuck in the post 9/11 era. You might be able to make the case that the election of Trump ended that era and, yet, that change was may only superficial.

I do think that everything is going to change one way or another in late 2024, early 2025, probably because of a combination of so-called Fourth Turning with something akin to a Petite Singularity.

Things just can’t stay so meh forever. History abhors a vacuum, just like nature, and it definitely seems as though we’re all just kind of drifting at the moment.

We Risk Becoming An Autocracy Because People Care More About Inflation Than The Abstract Of Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long said that the United States is currently an autocracy without an autocrat. The only thing stopping us from sliding peacefully into Hungary-like autocracy is, well, the fact that Democrats are in power.

Once that changes, that’s all she wrote. We become an autocracy.

This really hit home when I recently had one of my monthly political debates with a far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly. They’ve been completely radicalized because of the culture wars and a general sense of being put upon by the “woke cancel culture mob.”

They have an extensive permission structure built out in their minds for various reasons, but to put a fine point on it, they simply hate the vibes and are willing to vote for a fascist like Trump if that means white Christians can have some security in what they feel is a increasingly secular — and gay — America where not enough of those sweet, sweet white babies are being born.

I’m obviously joking and exaggerating, but that is, in a sense what is going on. White Christians don’t like the direction country is going so they latch on things like the price of groceries when what is really going on is they feel weirded out that some women aren’t ashamed of having abortions and gay people becoming more noticeable.

That’s the thing that is so interesting about what’s going on — I get the sense that a lot of white Christians don’t really have a problem with abortion or being gay, but they DO have a problem with having to talk about it. And, of course, they hate how they feel smug Twitter liberals look down on them.

All of this is the culmination of decades of macro trends all coming together at once — The Fourth Turning, if you will.

So here we are. Waiting around for autocracy to come to America. That’s the general trend at the moment — America is heading towards a white Christian ethnostate one way or another.

Of course, the great irony is that because Trump is the vessel for these macro trends that some pretty surreal, unprecended things MIGHT happen in late 2024, early 2025.

Maybe. I can’t predict the future. But the CONDITIONS are there for some pretty fucked up shit to happen. There is a non-zero chance that Trump gets elected and is so fucking bad at being the person responsible for transitioning us into autocracy that some sort of effort to depose him happens. And if that “Glorious Revolution” is successful, then the specter of a civil war is a real possibility because Red States will get mad and begin to leave the Union.

It’s sad that everything is so fucked up.

I’m Really Worried About The Fate Of Trans People Once Fucking MAGA Is Back In Power

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA is now full blown fascism. America is an autocracy without an autocrat. As such, the moment Republicans have power again, all hell will break loose. And the jury is still out as to How Bad Things Will Get.

The political canary in the coalmine is going to be trans people. I struggle to believe that if some future autocrat — Tyrant Trump or someone else — builds out the infrastructure necessary to round up millions of undocumented people that they won’t feel a great deal of temptation to round up trans people, too. And they won’t stop there — next thing you know, Jews will be in the camps, too.

Whenever you start fucking with the nature of citizenship, there is a natural inclination on the part of those doing the fucking to narrow the definition of who is a citizen down to whatever they can get away with.

Now, of course, it just sounds like hysterical doom shit to suggest that MAGA might start to round up trans people and put them in concentration camps along with other “undesirables,” but it’s very easy to imagine MAGA going septic and that very thing happening.

But, at the moment, I just don’t know. There are a lot of scenarios one could think up, I just happen to gravitate towards the most dystopian.

Team Biden Really Needs To Work On Its ‘Border Crisis’ Messaging

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My most recent political conversation with my far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — was extremely alarming for a number of reasons. This was the first time when it was clear to me that they were so radicalized that they were all-in for the type of Christian Nationalism that Trump and MAGA features.

My relative — who I feel should know better — has established an extensive permission structure for them to vote for the fascist Trump. Now, this relative — who I love dearly — loves to wallow in the culture wars. That’s why they loved Ron “Tiny-D” DeSantis so much.

Now that Tiny-D is out of the picture, they’ve become a hard core Trump supporter. This is a prime example of how Trump the idea is far more potent than Trump the man.

The curious thing about this situation is the energy for my relative’s conversion to MAGA comes from his outrage over the “crisis at the border.” Yes, my relative has bought into the Fox News-constructed outrage over the “woke cancel culture mob” and the “gay agenda,” but, at the core of their support for MAGA is their concern over what’s going on at the border.

What bothers me my relative keeps asking, “Why doesn’t Biden do something?” and I kind of struggle to give any cogent answer. My relative totally ignores my pointing out that Biden “tried to do something” about the border, only to get shot down because Trump wants to run on that crisis.

As such, my intelligent, college educated Traditionalist relative is willing to end 250 years of American democracy because they’ve established in their mind an extensive permission structure based on what they see as Biden’s inability to do anything about the “crisis at the border.”

This is very alarming!

What’s more, when remind my relative about all the tyrannical things that Trump has made very clear he will do given a second term, they totally disregard that we should take Trump both seriously and literally. Given that I’m someone who might very well get rounded up when the Trump-branded camps open…yikes.

And, I suppose, the only Red Line for my relative is, well, me. If Trump snatches me off the street because I won’t shut up about how I think Tyrant Trump is a cocksucker, then, well, my well-meaning relative might be given pause for thought. Of course, it will be tool late, then.

It’s clear that the two sides are beginning to harden their positions to the point that there is a non-zero chance that if Trump loses later this year that his possible demand for a National Divorce to stay out of jail may actually get some traction and, lulz, we have a civil war.

When pressed on this particular scenario, my Traditionalist-now-MAGA relative did not really give me an answer as to what they would do which is a “Not, great, Bob,” type thing.

While my relative may be a lost cause for various reasons, I would suggest Team Biden TRY to explain why they’re not doing more at the border. But it all may be a lulz in the end because Trump could murder someone on TV and he would still be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being president.

Of Jon Stewart & AI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jon Stewart remains a curious figure in American politics because, given the logic of the modern political world, he should run for president. He would be the anti-Trump.

Jon Stewart

He has a prove track record of getting shit done when he gets angry — specifically his work when it comes to helping 911 first responders. But it his rant about the dangers of AI tonight that reminded me of how, in a sense, he is a shadow presidential candidate.

In the segment I saw, he was able to clearly articulate what might be the basis of a modern day Luddite movement — the idea that the speed at which AI will be adopted could be so fast that it short circuits the usual “in the end, more jobs are made” idea and we endup with a lot of people out of work in a very abrupt manner.

I have long wondered if this dynamic might lead MAGA to naturally evolve into a neo-Luddite movement that might combine elements of the far Right and far Left. That would, of course, totally re-align the American political system, just like how MAGA did.

But the the fact remains — Jon Stewart would be a very, very strong presidential candidate. There would be a lot of people who would blanch at the idea, of course, because of the horrible experiences we’ve had with Trump, but I think Stewart is clearly so different from Trump that such reservations could be overcome.

It’s highly unlikely that Stewart would ever run for president, of course. There would have to be some Black Swan event to prompt him to do such a thing. But he is definitely someone to keep an eye on going forward.