TNT: Trump / Trump 2020?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


My current estimation is at some point in the next few weeks, we will reach a Trump freakout tipping point and Trump will rather abruptly dump Pence as his 2020 running mate.

Now, the Republican MAGA backbench is so wide and deep that he has about 30 people he could pick from who would get the job done. But, for the moment, it seems two people are more perfect than the others — Ivanka Trump and Gen. Mike Flynn.

Flynn is perfect because, well, he’s a fucking traitor and probably Trump’s Russian “handler” so what better way to “own the libs” than to put a turncoat one heartbeat away from the presidency. So, Flynn seems perfect. And, yet, Ivanka would also fix a lot of problems for House Trump.

She’s a “threefer” in that she’s Jewish, a woman and a Trump….and moderate! So, she’d be perfect for the white college educated women in the exerbs that everyone seeks so desperately in a presidential campaign. What I could see happening is something like this:

Trump’s political fortunes get dramatically worse. His insanity and his criminality fuse into one and he begins to lash out in some pretty insane ways (he’s already doing that, natch). As part of this insane lashing out, he does a major shake up of his campaign, including booting Pence. (Brad Parscale is a different matter. He’s too good at his job for Trump to do anything about him. He’s so powerful — and necessary to Trump’s victory — I could see Trump naming HIM his veep.)

Then Trump names Ivanka his veep. Everyone goes insane for a few days. Then things begin to calm down and we realize that, like most Trump political moves, it’s both genius and very stupid. But, really, the whole point is to simply setup Ivanka (and Jared) to become president at some point in Trump’s ill-gotten second term. Jared will probably really run the country, while Ivanka is a figure head. Or maybe there might be some combination of Ivanka-Jared-Flynn should Trump finally totally and completely lose his fucking mind in his second term.

Trump is going to win, no matter what. I see no indication that he will ever EVER, ever have any political accountability because of some pretty significant macro problems in the American political system.

Lulz.

House Trump & The Rise of ‘Ivanka I’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As best I can tell, Trump is going is going to replace Mike Pence with Ivanka. I say this for a number of pretty obvious reasons:

Trump has a problem with women voters
What better way to squeeze out every possible female vote in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida but with a female VP. Everyone is so focused on Nikki Haley that they are missing how conspicuous Ivanka is right now. He’s definitely thinking about naming her his veep going into the fall, is all I gotta say.

Ivanka is a “threefer”
Not only is Ivanka Jewish, she’s a woman AND a Trump. So, it would be, in a sense, the ultimate troll. The base would accept her because of her last name. The liberal establishment — a group the approval of which Trump craves — would not know what to do with this news at first. Trump and MAGA would get to “own the moment” on a macro level the likes of which they’ve not been able to for some time.

So, while I have long thought Trump would pick either Don Jr. or someone like Steve King to give himself a second term insurance policy, Ivanka would help so much getting him past the Electoral College finish line that, lulz, so what.

And, in a sense, she would still be an anti-impeachment insurance policy because she’s so vacuous that seeing her ascend to the presidency because, say, Trump only got a second term by bribing Electors in a rather brazen fashion, would give Congress pause for thought.

What’s more, in Trump’s addled mind, the idea that her become POTUS would likely give him a boner for two reasons — he wants to fuck her, anyway AND she would likely do such a horrific job that we wouldn’t have a female president for 30 or 40 years because of how bad a job she did.

Buckle up.

Ivanka Trump’s Political Future

Vice President Ivanka Trump?
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I am not prepared to believe Trump finally faces an existential threat, at least on a political level. Politically, he’s fine. The Republican Party is now the fascist Trump Party and he is likely to be acquitted on the facts before us and go about his merry way. He will bribe individual Electors, get Russia to directly hack into our election systems or he will simply get Bill Barr to indict his opponent in Oct. 2020.

But let’s daydream. What if Trump loses his mind during the process of impeachment or, say, there’s MAGA violence that makes the average person so furious with House Trump that Der Fuhrer finally meets his political match — himself. Who would President Pence pick as his Veep?

This is a far more complicated question than you may at first imagine. Pence wants to use the MAGA base to win two full terms on his own. So, it’s unlikely he would pick someone like Nikki Haley because she’s, well, not a Trump. That leaves Ivanka and Don Jr. The reason why I doubt it would be Don Jr. despite his popularity with the MAGA base is he’s such an outlandish hothead that he would likely use his position as veep to challenge Pence for the 2020 Republican nomination.

That leaves Ivanka.

It’s likely Ivanka would be nominated and confirmed by the Senate at lightning speed the moment Trump was somehow finally physically dragged out of the Oval Office. Pence would see Ivanka as the “safe” member of House Trump that would help him on a number of different levels. Ivanka as his veep would reassure MAGA as to his fidelity to House Trump. He would get to name the first woman — and Jewish — veep in American history.

Really, given how little the veep position really does, Ivanka is pretty much perfect for the job. You could pace out any number of different nightmare scenarios involving unintended consequences to this move, but that’s pushing it. Ivanka is an example of someone who thinks that the are “owed” something simply because of their connection to someone who paved the way. She’s in a curious political position because her bonkers brother is far more appealing to the MAGA base, while she herself is at least superficially someone who might for a heartbeat bring the nation together. The moment it sank in how bad she was on a practical level, the usual political divide we inhabit would kick in again.

Put another way — not even Ivanka could coast to the Republican nomination in any traditional manner. Her only real shot at ever becoming president would be if Pence somehow magically found enough shame to resign in disgrace. I just don’t see that happening. Pence at this point is more likely to do exactly what Trump would do only with a theocratic bent to it.

But I do suggest you keep an eye on Ivanka. If there was some sort of last-ditch effort at having a compacted resignation on Trump’s part (this will never happen) then maybe Ivanka-as-veep might be a bargaining chip desperate Republicans might use to coax a reluctant Trump out of office. Or, maybe they might use her as veep on a more basic level — to simply get Trump physically out of the Oval Office should he miraculously be convicted by the Senate.

Imagining An Ivanka Trump Presidency

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Oh, Ivanka. You so crave the presidency so much. Your stringbean husband with a warbling voice, too, craves that position but he has the stage presence of a gnat. But let’s supposed she gets her wish. Let’s look at how she might get it and what might happen.

First, we have to accept that she’s not going anywhere. You can’t be as directly connected to the levers of power as she has without having some serious long-term electoral prospects. She’s barely 35 and has 40 odd years to make her dream a reality. But she’s a member of House Trump, so, of course, she probably wants it now, now, now.

The first possibility that comes to mind is Pence appoints her his veep in a sop to the MAGA base. In fact, the things you have to address in any daydream about her becoming president is how she would be able to get the ignorant mouthbreathers (or plutocrats) of MAGA to accept her as they have her father. A lot depends on Ivanka not having any type of fight with her brother about “who gets the base” once her father is no longer politically viable. Seems to me that Don Jr. is much better positioned to get the base and as such the presidency, but lulz.

Ok, back to her being Veep. There are about a half dozen paths for her to become president should House Trump’s leader find his political prospects imploade. I could see Pence naming her Veep to placate her Daddy as a way to ease him out of office. Or…the list goes on.

But let’s say in early 2020, Ivanka is president. She at least seems to be the most put-together of House Trump. But she is only about 36 or so. To date, she’s had the perfect equation of all the power and none of the responsibility. She would find herself in something of a bind, however. She at least superficially appears somewhat moderate and fact-based, so there’s a real chance that her political honeymoon might be counted in days. The MAGA base will flip out when she doesn’t babble about a fucking wall or isn’t the bonkers orator that her father is.

Meanwhile, the center-Left will despise her on a personal level. They will resent not only how she never spoke up during her father’s presidency, but that she would be the first female president only because of the influence of her hateful father. Her Administration would likely crater so bad that she wouldn’t get the Republican nomination. She would limp politically to Jan. 20, 2021. Republicans would point to her administration as to why women should never be president.

But, remember, she’s not going anywhere. Maybe it’s not immediately. Maybe she simply lurks in Republican Administrations for a decade or two and then pops out when she’s 50 or so. That’s a very real possibility.

I can only get comfort in the fact that being president doesn’t exactly do wonders for your looks. So, honey, get ready to get really, really old really, really fast if you should happen to become president anytime soon.

Ivanka & Charred Wreckage That Is The State Department

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I hate to break it to you, guys, but I’m afraid Trump is prepping Ivanka Trump to be Secretary of State in this second term. That’s the reason why she keeps running around the globe for no apparent reason. That’s the fucked up rationale MAGA will use to cram her nomination through the Senate. “But she knows everyone in the world!”

Now, it’s my impression that State is ruined for the foreseeable future. Trump’s administration has done everything in its power to destroy Foggy Bottom. What’s worse, it’s not like the partisan dipshits Trump put in place there are going anywhere should we ever get another Democratic administration. They’re going to hunker down and do everything in their power to make life for a president they don’t like hell.

So, Ivanka will be at State in Trump’s second term. I’m little nervous that it will be her, not Don Jr. who runs for POTUS in 2024. It would be just like MAGA to do everything in their power to make sure Ivanka is the first woman president so she can be so bad that we never have another female president.

I feel so bad for State. They deserve so much better.

Complicit: Jesus, Jared & Ivanka Can Suck It

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The fact that the Trump Administration announced that it’s pulling out of the Paris Accord is a death blow to the notion that Ivanka and Jared will be some sort of moderating or mitigating influence on this dumpster fire of a would-be autocracy.

In hindsight, it was all very naive of us to think that just because the couple was apparently, well, sane and urban that they could single-handedly prevent their racist, bigoted, misogynist, nativist relative from swerving the greatest nation in the world into a geopolitical ditch.

I have to admit that I had hope. I had hope that, for no other reason, a woman as smart and attractive as Ivanka wouldn’t allow her dear old dad monumentally fuck things up. And yet today’s announcement lays waste to any hope that that might be the case.

We officially have our answer. Either Ivanka and Jared are completely complicit in the worst aspects of Trumplandia, or they have zero real power. Neither one of these possibilities put the couple in a good light. If they’re complicit, then we have to see them as a part of the problem. If they’re powerless, then we can sit around hoping they will prevent, well, prevent events like pulling out of the Paris Accord from happening.

This tweet doesn’t really make me feel any better.

If that tweet is accurate, then I guess we have our answer: they’re complicit. When the history books of this time are written, hopefully this mystery of how it is that people like Ivanka and Jared could allow themselves to be sucked into the black void of Trumplandia. How did this happen?

What is even more of a struggle to understand is how in Trumplandia a Jewish holiday can be so significant to policy making…and yet Donald Trump is best buds with an avowed anti-Semite like Steve Bannon. It is a struggle for me to grapple with this paradox. It seems as though in the world of Trumplandia you really can have it both ways.

Your daughter can be Jewish and you can associate closely with anti-Semites. That is one of the many ways Trumplandia is ideologically perplexing and slippery. It is easy for Trumplandia apologists to say both things that I just suggested can’t be true. And, yet, it is self evident that they are, in fact, true.

If all of this means anything, it’s that there will be no secret saviors in the Trumplandia Era. Our only hope is to engage, to organize, to fight and to have hope that despite everything, despite the obstacles, that the moral arc of history does, in fact, bend towards justice.

If we assume that anything else is the case, then we’re deluding ourselves. We have to fight the good fight. We have to, on an individual level do what we can to make sure that in 2018 we flip Congress. There are no assurances this will happen, but we have to have hope. We have to.