Donald Trump is the true successor to Ronald Reagan. Or, put another way, Trump is the second in a series of successors to the Watergate legacy of Richard Nixon. Trump is going to win re-election by hook or by crook. He’s going to have either an illegal third term or a de facto third term in the guise of a hand-picked successor. It’s probably going to be either Ivanka or Don Jr.
Our best bet is that by the 12th year of rule by House Trump, the ebb and flow of history will finally kick in and some sort of center-Left president will be elected. Of course, this is only likely if there’s any life in American democracy at all. More likely, we’ll simply have a series of Trumps for about 20 years until at some point the browning of America kicks in just about the time the youngest of the Baby Boomers die.
The worst part of all of this is the political center of gravity in America has again lurched to the Right in a big way. So the only way Democrats will elect a president is if they can find a very charismatic Bill Clinton type who is barely Leftist at all in his or her policies.
Of course, this is based on the assumption that the Union and or the Constitution survive in the first place. There’s a really good chance that if House Trump overreaches that either Blue States will attempt to leave the Union altogether or there might be some sort of military junta that keeps the Union together until things get sorted out.
If you look closely at how, exactly, the Roman Republic became the Roman Empire, the parallels with modern America are striking. The thing about the early Roman Empire, as I understand it, is that many of the traditions of the the Republic lingered for generations.
That’s what’s happening with America now. Trump in his own corrupt, incompetent manner, is serving as something of an American Caesar. He’s pushing us from a republic into a de facto empire with ruling families and no democracy.
So apparently Ivanka and Don Jr. are fighting out behind the scenes as to who will succeed their father. The solution to their fighting would be, of course, for Don Jr. to be run for president and to pick Ivanka as his veep. Or vise-versa. And that would be how House Trump would rule the country for the next 20-odd years until the youngest of the Baby Boomers croke and the browning of America reaches a tipping point. (Or Blue States get fed up and leave the Union altogether. Or there’s a military junta installed with someone like Gen. Mattis as Lord Protector.)
Now, I honestly don’t see anything stopping this scenario from happening. If it’s not craven plutocrats, it’s Russians, if it’s not ammosexuals, it’s Evangelicals. There are simply way too many powerful groups with a vested interest in House Trump ruling the country for as long as they can absolutely do so.
I honestly don’t have any hope. House Trump is an avatar for the demise of the American Republic. Or put another way, Trump has served his purpose. He’s ended the America I grew up with. It will be Don. Jr or Ivanka who simply build on what he’s created. There is no hope. It’s over.
But having said that, just to entertain myself, let’s think of what might go wrong for House Trump. First and foremost, they’re growing arrogant. They have grown accustomed to getting whatever they want. So they’re beginning to talk pretty openly about the existence of House Trump. They think that they’re safe. They see it as FUD. They want to browbeat what little opposition they have into accepting their rise to the imperial throne. Much like the Romans of 2,000 years ago, however, Americans aren’t too fond of royalty. So there is at least a small possibility — maybe 1% at this point — that there is pride before the fall.
But I would say it’s far more likely that the country simply splits in two, with House Trump getting Red States and the American Republic continuing in Blue States. In a way, it would be similar to the Western and Eastern Roman Empires.
The more I think about the country splitting up, the more I struggle with how, exactly, it would take place. It’s difficult to see Blue Washington D.C. staying in the Red Rump USA. That fact alone assures there would be bloodshed. Maybe a lot more than we could possible imagine. And I really, really don’t want that. Or House Trump will simply abolish Blue State governments and rule them as military districts. They’ll weaponize ICE and the camps and throw anyone who opposes them into them. Lulz!
One thing is for sure — the American experiment in republican rule is over. The problems are too existential to be fixed. It may take a few decades, but we’ll be just like Russia and it’s “manage democracy” soon enough. I would say things will accelerate in Trump’s second term.
Once Don Jr. or Ivana becomes president, it’s all a moot point.
I wish there was something I could think up that might prevent this slide into dystopia, but I can’t.