2025: Life In Autocratic America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I predict that 2024 will be one of the most significant years in American political history. America will face a stark choice — autocracy or civil war. There will be no middle ground. Everyone will have to make a choice, pick a side.

Right now, I simply can’t predict which direction America will go. Will we implode post election day 2024 into civil war or our our zombie liberal democracy finally just be dead instead of undead.

But let’s take a moment to imagine what life in autocratic America might be like should we not have a civil war.

One thing to consider is, even as our politics finally slides into a Russian-style managed democracy it’s possible that on the cultural side nothing will change. It’s possible that in an effort to prevent any kind of organized opposition to our new fascist government that some of the darker things I fear that might happen won’t happen — at least for a lot longer than one might imagine.

The reason why I say this is Trump was a would-be autocrat and because we had zero political will to do anything about him, there was something of a draw. Trump had political power and cultural power was given over the the center-Left. Trump had “hard” power and people like the late night talk show hosts had soft power.

If that happened again, I would come across as Chicken Little — again — to traditional conservatives who would continue to rant about Cancel Culture and how liberals run everything.

And, yet, form follows function, so it’s easy to imagine President Cotton or President Hawley taking things to the next level and lurching us towards a true fascist state. It’s easy to imagine a point during the 2025-2030 era where there would be an aggressive purge of media outlets, probably via threatening their broadcast licenses.

Once that was accomplished, then the rest takes care of itself. The already existent ICE camp infrastructure is weaponized and ICE starts to push people like me out of windows or throw us into camps to be “re-educated.”

In addition, it doesn’t seem too much to imagine that a MAGA fascist president would aggressively pull troops out of various nations across the globe and even, maybe leave NATO. We would become Fortress America and, soon enough, the entire world order would go tits up as various simmering border disputes exploded. There might even be limited nuclear exchanges resulting in hundreds of millions of deaths.

In the end, should the fascists take over, I don’t see them leaving power at any point during my remaining years on this earth. Ultimately, it would be the excesses of such a fascist government that might be its downfall. But the damage would already be done.

America As Failed State


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The America I know and love will end very soon, probably in the winter of 2024 after the presidential election. Either we elect an autocrat who successfully strangles our zombie liberal democracy or he bungles that transition and there’s a civil war.

Now, as I’ve written before there are plenty of “known unknowns” that might delay this choice of autocracy or civil war, but there’s no avoiding the choice at some point. There are plenty of reasons why this is, but the chief reason is the rot at the core of the American political system.

Now that Republicans have become a old fashion fascist party, I just don’t see there being any way for us to escape our doom. The only reason why we escaped our fate in 2020 was Donald Trump was too old, too lazy and too unfocused to get the job done. He flirted with the necessary tactics to destroy America, but in the end he choked.

Really, at this point, I would suggest that only a major regional war with, say North Korea — started at just the right moment in the 2024 presidential cycle — would be enough to punt our impending existential crisis down the road one more presidential cycle. Or, if Elon Musk so disrupted the trucking industry that the far Left and the far Right fused together in opposition to job-killing technology.

Otherwise, we’re fucked by no later than late 2024.

In its own tragic way, I would suggest that in a way a second civil war might at least give us some opportunity for redemption like the first Civil War. Though it would be such a horrific tragedy that such a redemption would only happen because both sides would have suffered equally enough that they would be willing to renew the American Covenant.

If we become an autocracy, then, well, there is no hope. Our new autocratic Republican ruling class will simply keep cutting taxes and social benefits, continue to make it harder for women to have sexual agency and continue to keep minorities under the jackboot of systemic racism. In the end, America and Russia will be politically identical and I get pushed out of a window by ICE agents for being too much a of loudmouth.

‘The Fourth Turning’ Predicts A Major Political Crisis ‘Before 2025’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The spooky thing about the book The Fourth Turning is there is a specific prediction that aligns perfectly with my own thoughts on America’s fate — we’re going to have a severe political crisis of some sort in late 2024 after the presidential election.

Or, put another way, we will have a severe political crisis (second civil war) if the would-be autocrat that Republicans nominate isn’t able to cleanly steal the election and turn us into an autocracy that lasts at least 50 or more years. That specific prediction is enough for me to think the guys involved know what they’re talking about.

One key take away from the big so far right now is the cycle of human history is somewhere between 80 to 130 years. I’ve been toying with a similar idea — that we’ve reached an era where the last people to remember WW2 are dying off and, as such, the idea of the United States as the “essential nation” is being lost as the primary driver of American foreign policy.

As such, we see the rise of MAGA and the idea of Fortress America. If you twin that with the idea that the choice in 2024 is between civil war or autocracy, then The Fourth Turning‘s prediction that “before 2025” all hell is going to break loose jibes up pretty well with that.

We have to begin to prepare for a cataclysmic break with the past in the winter of 2024-2025. If we become an autocracy that pulls all out all our troops from around the world, then I could see WW3 happening at any point after 2025. For me, the issue is the next autocrat is probably going to be a lot less incompetent than Trump and, well, should we not have a civil war, our decent into autocracy will be swift and breathtaking.

All my dystopian hells cape nightmares that I imagined for the Trump Era will just happen four years later.

Would Be Autocrat Hot-Take: Mike Pompeo


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Mike Pompeo is such a piece of shit. He’s a big old turd who thinks he can bring about the return of Jesus H. Christ by, I don’t know, using Trump as the Anti-Christ of or something? And, given what a fucking cocksucker he is, if the FBI looks at this post I want them to know that that I REALLY THINK MIKE POMPEO IS PEICE OF SHIT.

He’s so fucking annoying because the moment he becomes president, he’s coming after people like me. I’m just the kind of loudmouth that he’s going to round up and get ICE to shoot in the back of the head. Ugh. At least I have four years to get out of the country, I guess.

There’s something so grating on my nerves about Pompeo. He talks about “swagger” then turns around and sucks up to any foreign leader who helps him politically in his scorched earth desire to become president and bring back Jesus H. Fucking Christ.

I know there’s nothing I can do in real terms, though. Pompeo is one a few would-be autocrats who could probably strangle our liberal democracy in one fell swoop without bungling the transition so we end up having a civil war.

But let me be clear — this is just me pointing out a coming car accident. There’s nothing I can do about any of this. I just need to vent about how the country I love is going to go from a liberal democracy to Pompeolandia within about five years.

Fuck Mike Pompeo. Ugh!

TNT: ‘Velvet Fist 2024’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If Trump decides to use Ivanka as his proxy in some way for the 2024 election, or if he doesn’t and simply names her his veep, “TNT 2024,” then we could very well find ourselves at some point living under the Velvet Fist.

If it’s not Ivanka, it’s Lara.

But in the end, we’ll have a dumb-dumb blonde as President while Mike Pompeo — or pick a would-be autocrat — is veep and crushes out liberal democracy once a for all. I just don’t see how this doesn’t happen.

Because of Rona and Jim Clyburn we’ve managed to accidently punt one of two possibilities (civil war or autocracy) down the road for about four years. But that’s it. Something I simply can not predict would have to happen for one of those two things not to happen.

We’re absolutely fucked.

I can’t predict specifics, but everything I’m reading about the rise of Hitler and tyranny in general on a macro level indicates everything is going to go to shit very, very quickly about 2024-2025. And it’s probably going to be some variation of the Velvet Fist.

It just makes too much sense — we have our first female president who is all rainbows and moonbeams and then our veep who is Richard III. Things are going to get very fucking dark.

Get out of the country while you can. Go to somewhere like Perth. But the United States is either going to buckle in to civil war or turn into some sort of weird Upside Down MAGA hellscape. The only way we’re ever getting read of the Velvet Fist, of course, will be how we always get rid of autocratic regimes — they fuck up in a huge way. Too bad millions may have to die in the process to get us to that point.

The Third Great Cataclysm


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It’s at least possible when the United States finally buckles, it will be up there will the fall of the two Romes in its significance. The reason is — the United States holds the entire world together.

If we’re too busy killing each other — or we just pull a Dr. Manhattan on world affairs — everything is going to go tits up pretty quick. The number of dead could get up into the 100s millions.

I just don’t think the average person realizes how rotten the American political system is. When America at last buckles, it will happen so quickly that we won’t be able to process it.

The core issue is — is the United States going to have a civil war or become an entirely inward looking autocracy? As of right now, I honestly have no clue which of these two possibilities will come true — but I do know it will be one of them.

A lot depends on if House Trump bungles the transition to Truamplandia or not in the 2024-2025 period. If there’s a smooth transition to the “Velvet Fist” of, say, Ivanka Trump / Tom Cotton or Lara Trump / Josh Hawley, then, well, we’ll be an autocracy. But if they fuck things up like they always do, then we’ll have a civil war.

As I say, get out the country if you can.

Endgame 2024: Autocracy Or Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

But for the want of Donald Trump actually being “the guy from The Apprentice,” the United States would either be in the midst of a civil war right now or having the final stages of its transformation into an autocratic managed democracy occuring.

That was the thing that people like me totally missed about Trump. Sure, he has autocratic impulses, but he was in the end, all talk. It wasn’t the “Deep State” that was his problem — it was him. He was an incompetent idiot with no leadership skills who just thought things would magically go his way without knocking any heads.

But where does that leave us now?

Well, the issue of the day — civil war or autocracy? — has been punted down the road for about four years. There are about six Republicans right now chomping at the bit to do what Trump couldn’t do. And if they aren’t able to manage events properly, then there will be a civil war as we transition into an autocracy.

The issue is, the United States, politically, is now a zombie. It’s a dead Republic walking. Get out while you can, because things are going to get nasty and dark and a shit ton of people may die.

It’s going to happen in the winter of 2024 the way it’s going now. Congress — now controlled by the fascist Republicans — will do everything in its power to give the presidency to Trump, Trump Jr or whatever autocrat the Republicans nominate in 2024. Either they succeed peacefully or they don’t.

If they succeed peacefully, my big mouth gets me ships to an ICE “reeducation camp.” If not, then, well, I may die because a cache of WMD is stole somewhere in the United States and the two sides start killing each other THAT way.

Maybe I’m wrong. I often am.

But….

The Fire Next Time: How To Be A Left Wing Populist Demagogue


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s becoming alarmingly clear that my precious American liberal democracy is doomed. It’s fucked. For some significant macro demographic and economic reasons, we’re careening towards either civil war or autocracy. This is probably happening in the winter of 2024 as one side or the other freaks out over this this or that thing that the other side did.

So, with that in mind, I would suggest maybe the Left think about beating fucking cocksucker Rightwing nutjobs at their own game. So, if I was taller and more stable, here is what my platform for my Left wing MAGA wanna-be grift would be.

  1. Legalize Pot.
  2. Student Debt cancelation
  3. Breakup of Big Tech
  4. Extreme Regulation of any job-killing new tech
  5. Return of the an actual, honest-to-God progressive income tax
  6. National service of 18 months for new high school grads nationwide.
  7. A serious look at reoperations for slavery

    Sadly, even this is too nuanced for the dumb-dumb American electorate scared of brown people and women with sexual agency. Anyway, the point is, we’re so fucked. MAGA is going to pop out of its spider hole pretty soon and people like me — and maybe you — are going to get rounded up and either shot in the back of the head in American Killing Fields in upstate New York or put in some sort of weaponized ICE Camp.

    Something pretty big that I can’t predict would have to happen to prevent this.

The Fall Of The American Empire


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you work on the assumption that some pretty basic concepts about the United States that I assumed to be universal come not from us being a “city on the hill” but, well, because white people were pumping out enough babies to keep them demographically fat and sassy then, well…wow.

It kind of blows my mind that American liberal democracy rests not on American exceptionalism, but the cold, hard metrics of demographics. In fact, in a sense, the whole idea of America being a “melting pot” is a lie: even Germans were seen as a threat in the 1850s-1860s…and they were demonstrably white!

So, if you throw in the speed at which travel happens in the modern world, then pretty much everything wrong with American politics boils down to one thing: a dearth of white babies.

The abortion debate: white women need to pump out more kids!
Immigration: Scary brown people will bring brown babies!
Guns: We have to protect white babies!
Taxes: I need money for my white babies!

Ugh.

What conservatives want is things to go back to “normal” where white people are on top to a point where they don’t even realize they’re on top. As Ezra Kline says in his book, “Why We’re Polarized,” all the civil rights progress of the 1950s and 1960s was seen as largess on the part of the White Majority. Now that White People are nervous about a lack of white babies…screw you guys!

It’s all very disheartening.

All I can say loud mouths like me — who have the most to lose when America slips into autocracy — I need to get the fuck out of this country while I still can.

Fuck MAGA and its false orange prophet.

Why ‘Second American Civil War’ Porn Is So Popular Right Now


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It all started with Ronald Reagan. It was Reagan who told the base that all their problems were caused by evil liberals. So, pretty much, it has been down hill from there.

So, here we are.

About half the American electorate is eagerly waiting a civil war where they are freed from the confines of “cancel culture” so they can murder evil liberals in cold blood without any consequences. I say this because most of this blog’s traffic comes from people in Red States obviously stroking one off in the middle of the night to the idea that if they could just murder liberals then they could provide for a family of five again even without a college education.

I look at my Webstats and it’s a steady flow of URLs from Texas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina who are very, very, VERY interested in some sort of Second American Civil War.

What is so nuts about all of this is if these people would just cool it and let politics take its course, they could get everything they ever wanted. But it definitely seems as though we’ve reached the game of …”but THEN what would happen” where the only logical conclusion is if “cancel culture” keeps going that good old boys in the South (and Mountain areas) will take it upon themselves to slaughter those evil, evil liberals in cold fucking blood.

This is the point where I say — if you’re on of those good old boys: eat shit and fuck off you cocksucker.

Anyway.

The point is, we are so totally fucked. Either there’s a civil war in about five years, or a strong man, a “man on a horse” takes over and strangles our fragile liberal democracy without firing a shot.