Month: August 2019

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

While I would be overjoyed if House Democrats finally pull their thumbs out of their asses and impeached Trump, my elation would come with some qualifications. The issue is, Trump is an avatar for an existential problem in America that is not going away anytime soon. In fact, I would propose it won’t fade until about 20 years from now when the youngest of the Baby Boomers die off just around the time we reach a tipping point with the browning of America.

Though impeaching Trump makes a lot of sense on an abstract level, actually doing it is problematic. Again, I’m not saying we shouldn’t do it — we should. I’m just pointing out that doing it — even successfully — won’t be the panacea too many people on Twitter seem to think it would be. First and foremost, it is likely to fail. So Trump could run as having been “vindicated” the moment he’s acquitted by the Senate. What’s worse, even if impeaching Trump was somewho, miraculously successful, that would mean Pence would have not one, but two opportunities to run for president as an incumbent.

But this raises another issue — Trump is such a horrible person and president the issue of impeachment may eventually be out of all of our hands. I could see more than one scenario where Trump’s mental state grows so dangerous — like 9/11 crisis dangerous — that things fall apart for Trump not in months or weeks but days. In fact, in a sense, that’s the only way impeachment makes any sense to me at this point — to fix a specific crisis. Trump has such a lock on the minds of about 35% of the electorate that while we should impeach him, we should also manage our expectations as to what it will accomplish.

And, yet, really, long term we have to accept that given that Trump is no more than an avatar for a deep existential problem with the United States that there is, in fact, no bottom as to how far things are likely to go. If Federal elections don’t become perfunctory, then there will be active hacking by the Russians. If that doesn’t work, then MAGA will intimidate and bribe individual electors. ICE will be weaponized and the existing camps will be filled not with asylum seekers, but with anyone who has the temerity to challenge the the will of The Leader. I wish this was being hysterical, but it’s not. This is a real possibility. We could go full Russian manage democracy in brief few years. Like, less than five.

I wish I could tell you there was some solution. There’s none. Short term, I would suggest that the Left adopt the “new rules” that the Right is so fond of. We go eyeball-to-eyeball with them every political chance we can get. If that means the government grinds to down to a Singularity, so be it. And, really, at this point there are no good endgames. Here are some possibilities.

Junta
It’s possible that the only thing that will keep America together is the military. This is so alien to the American tradition that things would really, really have to get bad. But the military is the lone institution that commands the respect of the general populace, so it may be the only thing that keeps the country together long term.

“Wayward Sisters, Part In Peace”
In this scenario, there is a peaceful division of the country alone political lines on a state level. At best, we have some sort of economic union. At worse, the two sides will hate each other at this point that not even that will happen. The real fight will be over which country gets the US “brand.” Otherwise, the Red States will descend into a third world status while the Blue States will continue to grow and prosper.

The Apocalyptic Rock Fight
In this scenario, the division of the country gets out of hand. The two sides begin to drop a-bombs on each other until the entire country in ruin. Eventually one side will graduate to h-bombs and things will really get interesting. I only even suggest this possibility because MAGA is a manifestation of a cancer on the American psyche that is so dark, so depraved that is may swerve into such a bloodlust that, well, there’s no turning back.

Apartheid Era South Africa Meets Modern Venezuela Meets Reconstruction America
In this scenario, we have sort of a dystopian middle ground. Even though the brown of America has happened, white America clings to economic and political power with a death grip. Meanwhile, because of gross corruption, America is finally a third world country with nukes. We’re alone and scared on the world stage. Large swaths of the populace feel completely disenfranchised. Only the poor pay taxes and the rights of women and minorities are harshly repressed. What’s more Blue States are now little more than military districts without any formal representation in Congress.

And, so, that’s it. Those all the endgames I can think of. None of them make me feel good, none of them I want. But the more I think about it, the more it seems there are a few fundimental flaws in the Constitution. Among them the Electoral College and the Senate. But the Senate is so fundamental to the American system that I think that, in itself, means America will soon be a failed state in all but name. In a sense it already is and we’re just deluding ourselves.

In real terms, I guess all we can do is stay aware of what’s happen and try to, on an individual level, make or corner of America a better place. America is over. The end.