Month: October 2019

The Misunderstood Legacy Of Watergate

Now what you think.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Watergate gave us a false sense of how easy it might be to shame a president out of office. In a way, we can blame this on Sen. Barry Goldwater. It was he who organized a trip to the White House in August 1974 to tell Nixon it was time to go — he didn’t have the votes.

But, really, the now expected endgame of Watergate in all likelihood was not an example of “the system working” as was often said in post-Watergate America. In fact, it’s the opposite — Nixon resigning short-circuited the Constitutional process. We would have been better off decades later if Nixon had allowed the process of trial to take place. We would have a far more better understanding of how the impeachment process could successfully work.

And now here we are in 2019. Everything is different than 1974. Fox News exists. This is happening as a presidential cycle is reving up, not as midterms approach. Apologists for Trumplandia simply want to run out the clock in the name of “fairness.” They don’t give a shit about fairness, all they care about is getting us so far into 2020 that Trump survives to win re-election corruptly.

Bill Barr hasn’t even done a criminal referral for a sweeping list of notable anti-Trump names. What better way to end an impeachment process than to indict Hillary Clinton for “secretly” being behind the claim that Russians colluded with the Trump campaign. That’s a real possibility at this point. Let that sink in.

As I keep ranting about to anyone who will listen — not only is Trump not some sort of political genius, he’s also his own worst enemy. He has an entire support apparatus at his beck and call and he still may not get impeached but convicted. That’s a pretty astonishing — if cold hard — fact.

But he may still survive.

Of course, purging Trump is just the first step. All the dangers associated with MAGA are still going to be there. Kris Kobach and Tom Cotton have be watching and taking notes about what worked with Trump and what didn’t. So, keep your political powder dry, folks.

Radical Resistance, Beware Conservatives Bringing ‘Gifts’

It’s come to this.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I have a lot of respect for some of the more notable “#NeverTrump” Republicans on Twitter. And to a large extent, the following is not about them. This is more about the weird amalgam of “objective” commentators who think if only House Democrats would do this or that thing then everything would work out.

First, let’s get some stuff out of the way — there are a shit ton of people who do not want Trump impeached and or convicted. And, to be honest, there is simply no way they will ever change their minds. They have a vested interest in the MAGA grift on a personal level and, well, fuck you.

So, when they passionately articulate for thousands of words this or that bullshit reason that Democrats are doing it all wrong, I suggest you take it with a grain of salt. They wrap up their strategic goal — keeping Trump in office for a full eight years — in what seem to be logical tactical moves to impeach and convict Trump.

A big talking point among these assholes is Democrats need to “slow down.” This is taking a playbook from the gun lobby. What they really want is there to be no momentum. By that point it will be mid-2020 and, lulz, let the people decide sucker! They also get really bent out of shape about the impeachment drive coming off as “political.” This is a lulz given that the entire process is meant to be a political punishment.

And, really, the key thing is — they want to give Republicans, who are already asymmetrically radicalized — an absolute veto over any decision to impeach and convict Trump. They simply don’t see any successful political effort to end the cancerous Trump Administration early as a win for anyone but Democrats. That it might be a win for the nation doesn’t even enter their minds.

A key issue is that the clock is ticking. And, to date, House Democrats have actually done the things they should be doing. I think they should lean into “inherent contempt” now, but that’s just me. That is kind of a nuclear option that would likely have fucktwit MAGA people reaching for their AR-15s.

What happens next? I dunno. But I might gently suggest that some of the hack political talking head on cable news stop bickering about the 2020 race and start to prepare the nation for what was unthinkable just a few weeks ago — Trump could actually be convicted in the Senate. What’s more, we’re just at the beginning of this clusterfuck. There might be a cascading effect whereby Pence, too, leaves office pretty abruptly.

I worry that at the end of all of this we wake up to a President Ivanka, but that’s more me simply always assuming the absolute worst than anything else.

I hope.

Why Has Ambassador Gordon Sondland Agreed To Testify?

Hold your horses…
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

As I understand it, it’s Ambassador Sondland who is the guy who made it CLEAR in the released text messages that Trump did not want a quid pro quo. He’s testifying against the direction of State, so there are some on Twitter who are oohing and ahhing that this some sort of crack in the case.

Sadly, no.

Datapoints:

He’s not releasing any documents.
He’s already had a tet-a-tet with Sec. Pompeo.
He’s on the record saying no quid pro quo.

All he has to do is show up, make it clear there was — at least in his mind — no quid pro quo and it’s a win for House Trump. Or at least the optics will be. We won’t know what he said to Trump in the time leading up to the “No quid quo pro!” text.

Thus, theoretically, Ambassador Sondland could lie, or bob and weave, and give Chris Wallace all the bad-optics-for-impeachment he wants and the air will leave the impeachment proceedings as quickly as they arrived. The only reason why I still have any hope is that the House Democrats are interviewing other people involved in quick succession, so…I dunno?

Pacing Out Pence’s Political Strategy

Pence, Yeah You Know Me.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

On a surface level, VP Mike Pence is sitting pretty. He’s a Constitutional officer and all he has to do is not get fired from the ticket in 2020. That’s it. That’s all he has to do. As long he can swat Ivanka and Jared away long enough to be on the ticket again, he’s got a straight shot to the presidency in 2024.

And, yet.

There’s a problem. A big problem — Trump.

So, this makes things more complicated. If Trump gets both impeached and convicted, then Pence, in a sense, is the ultimate winner. But this “winning” brings with it some serious, complex problems. Pence if he wants to win as a conventional pol will have to at least attempt to reach out to the 60 odd percent of the electorate who are likely to hate his guts by the time Trump is finally removed from office by the Senate. At the same time, he has to worry about alienating the MAGA base of whom he really only has a solid claim to a subset of, the Evangelical vote. Compared to the always entertaining in a bonkers way Trump, Pence is actually just a very conservative traditional Republican.

A President Pence going into the 2020 election cycle would have half a dozen challengers coming at him from the MAGA right. All of them willing to be just a nuts as Trump, but also younger and more passionate in their hatred of brown people.

And, then, there’s the existential issue of giving Trump a Nixon-level pardon post presidency. That’s a question I simply can’t answer knowing what I know superficially. Logically, Pence would given Trump a full pardon and then simply try to tell it in a more articulate manner than Ford did. Or he could try to dodge the question until after the election and turn around and do just that. His thinking would be people would be luzling his pardon by the time he ran again in 2024. If he doesn’t pardon Trump and he is convicted by, say, the SDNY or New York State then, wow. That would be a pretty out-of-character and, relative to the base, dick move.

Pence wants it both ways. He wants to show absolute fealty to The Dear Leader while at the same time having the option of using his traditional pol skillset to hoodwink more moderate independants. The only problem for him there is, well, he’s so astonishingly conservative relative to the practical center of modern American politics that him trying to pull a fast one on enough middle aged center-Left women to get re-elected is debatable.

What’s more, there are some serious landmines lurking out there in the near future. Roe could be overturned. ObamaCare could be overturned. Or both of them could be overturned. If anything like that happened, it would roll the American political system in some unprecedented ways.

But, in general, I have no idea what’s going to happen. I have some hunches, but we’ll know more when Trump’s political fate is ultimately decided.

V-Log: We Are All So Fucked If Trump Isn’t Convicted In The Senate

Well, we are.

V-Log: A Gentle Creative Suggestion For Phoebe Waller-Bridge

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

This is just a stray observation.

V-Log: The State Of The #Novel I’m #Writing As Of Oct. 10th, 2019

Some thoughts.

Creative Destruction: Hollywood Must Buy Up Empty Malls For The Coming Immersive Media Era

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

You’re supposed to put your stick where the puck is going to be, not where it is, then I have a suggestion for Hollywood — buy up empty shopping malls now.

I say this because despite what is proposed in Ready Player: One, young human people still need the entertainment industry to facilitate dating rituals. So, even if we all have an economic VR – treadmill setup in our homes, 13 year old boys will still need to go through the rite of passage of asking his cute crush in homeroom out on a date.

Right now, “Netflix and chill” is not very practical for that kid. But going to a movie is definitely doable. As such, even in the age of “immersive media” little boys are still going to need an excuse to leave the house and hang out with their crush (reasonably) unsupervised for a few hours. So, it would make a lot of sense for them to not use a home VR – treadmill setup, but instead go to a revamped mall where there’s a massive immersive movie being played.

No one listens to me, but lulz. I had to get that off my chest.

Trump Is Causing The Worst Constitutional Crisis Since The Election Of Lincoln

Now what?
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Just after the election of Abraham Lincoln in the fall of 1860, the bolts began to pop off of the Constitution when states such as South Carolina began to hold conventions to approve their leaving of the Union. These dramatic events were lulzed by sitting president James Buchanan who cemented his rank as America’s worst president.

Now, here were are. Trump, in real terms, is only one tweet away from being worse than Buchanan. All he has to do is suggest to the AR-15 welding MAGA base to take up arms against the “traitors” in the House and, well, there you go. I don’t know how likely that scenario is, but Trump is already mentally unstable and impeachment itself may be enough to finally cause him to snap.

Any civil disturbance that might happen because of such a tweet, Trump can turn around and use as an excuse to dissolve Blue State governments. I guess the point of this is — we really, really need to take current events seriously. Like, really seriously.

These are the highest political stakes to take place in living memory. Trump is prepared to push the Constitution to its breaking point simply to save his sorry ass on a personal level. If we don’t stand up for the Constitutional now, then, well, what was ever the point in the first place. Congress needs to start arresting any and everyone it needs as part of Trump’s due process.

Of course, there is a danger this would significantly ratched up the stakes of an already unprecedented crisis. I say let’s rock. The sooner we embrace the risks of this crisis, the sooner we can address it more effectively. The days of asymmetrical radicalization have to end. Trump has declared war on the Republic and maybe we need to declare war back.

This is a moment of grave risk and potential opportunity. If we’re able to topple the Trump regime completely, there’s a chance that a President Pelosi can serve as a caretaker president who will simply ensure a free and fair election in 2020. I just don’t trust Pence to do that.

And, sadly, we can’t allow a Nixon endgame for Trump. Former President Trump must be indicted, tried and convicted. He’s proven he’s untrustworthy. If he’s a free man, he’s going to meddle in the 2020 election to get Don Jr. or Ivanka elected one way or another.

It’s a horrific precedent to set — “lock her up” and all that — but I honestly don’t know what else to do.

There Is Pride Before The Fall

Follow the money.

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I was watching MSNBC tonight and noticed something. They were going through the metrics that the Trump Administration was using to gauge its impeachment strategy.

While someone of them were demonstrably delusional, there was one that stuck out as extremely dangerous for House Trump. The Trump 2020 campaign is making an obscene amount of money fundraising off of the threat of impeachment.

Now, relative to them, that’s an example of how impeachment is a lulz and a win-win for them. They feel that no matter what, they’re going to endup with more money for the 2020 campaign and, by the way, fuck you, you globalist cuck.

This is all well and good, but if one of the primary metrics you use is how much money the base is willing shell out for the 2020 campaign, you’re setting yourself up for a potential political catastrophe. If you are so busy counting your cash like Scrooge McDuck and not weighing political factors, you are bound to make some pretty enormous mistakes.

If you add to this how unstable Trump is from day one and, well, there are no assurances. I have every reason to believe that Moscow Mitch will save the day and that once the Constitution’s back is broken that Trump’s authoritarian wet dreams will come true. But, absolute greed has a hell of a drug. There’s a chance House Trump will be oblivious to the gravity of this situation until it’s far, far, far too late.

But we’re way too early in the process to know one way or another. I guess if nothing else they can just live off their grift money for decades to come. They were going to do that, anyway.