Month: February 2020

Fight Test: I (May Have) Some Bad News For Iceland #WuFlu #CoronaVirus

I hope I’m wrong.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you work on the assumption that the United States has a “shadow” pandemic happening right now within its domestic borders, what would be the consequence of that? Well, it seems logical that a lot of people would be sick, but not SO SICK that they went to the doctor for their symptoms because, lulz, Don Jr. needed a tax cut and we can’t have an NHS in the States because “muh wall.”

So, you would have all these overworked — many of them poor — Americans running around infecting each other. The incubation period is long enough that pretty much a huge, wide, deep swath of the American population could have been exposed more than once by more than one person. Remember, South Korea and Italy both have socialized medicine, so people who with “flu-like symptoms” would be a lot more likely to go to the doctor and be tested. Also, only four American states have WuFlu tests AND they have to go to the CDC HQ in Georgia to be examined. (I think that’s right. I’m not 100% sure. If it is — very fucked up system.)

Anyway, the one place where a lot of sick Americans would visit and leave would be tourist destinations nearby. While Mexico and Canada get a lot of visitors from the States, they’re a lot bigger. Poor old Iceland, however, is small and gets high volume traffic from all over the States (and world.) There are a few other places I could imagine might also suffer from a lot of clueless sick Americans. Any number of smaller islands in the Caribbean would likely register WuFlu cases before the dumb, lumbering American system realized that 80% of the population had been exposed.

But, for the sake of argument, let’s look at Iceland. A lot of Americans from all over the country fly in for a few days and leave. It would make sense that the first cases of WuFlu would be picked up at tourist hotspots there. Hotel staff and their families would probably be the first to get really sick. Then next would be the people treating them. So, within a few days the first WuFlu case being picked up by the Icelandic health system, the entire country could faceplant.

Again, there are a number of other small nations around the States that might face a similar fate. But Iceland probably has the best health system of any of them and would be the quickest to notice what was going on. If Iceland collectively fell to its knees with WuFlu, then we know that the States is in a shit tone of trouble.

Like, oh my God, tell everyone important in your life you love them.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do.

I don’t know anything. Ignore me.

Jon Stewart & The First Hundred Days of 3W #WuFlu #CoronaVirus

Save us, bruh.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was born on a momentous day — Feb 26th. It was the day Napoleon escaped from the island of Elba. It was the start of The Hundred Days. It is within reason to believe that in real terms the worst of whatever pandemic strikes the USA will be about three months — a hundred days. Our fate, one way or another will be decided by the end of that period.

Either we finally start killing each other, or we renew our Union’s vows and, much like after the American Civil War, we enter a new era of peace and prosperity. For that to happen, of course, we’d need leadership. And, honestly, there’s only one person I can think of who has the oratory and leadership skills to help us get through what is shaping up to be a huge clusterfuck. Crisis management is about using what you have, not wishing about what you want. The first person who comes to mind when I think of leadership is Greta Thunberg, but she’s Swedish. The second person I think of is Jon Stewart.

He’s not a politician — yet — but he’s who we need right now. He’s funny, articulate and passionate. If we could somehow get him organizing things once we finally strike the pandemic iceberg, then maybe we could turn things around in 100 days and not, like, fucking implode into civil war. Or, put another way, we need some leadership immediately, off the bat the moment there’s panic buying. Passive-agressive tweeting isn’t going to cut it.

We need an actual leader. Someone who has a vision as to how we’re going to stay together as a nation and save as many lives as possible. No one listens to me, so I don’t know what we’re going to do. Besides, I have a novel to develop.

Keep the faith.

Twitter Liberals — GET WOKE, Campaign 2020 Is Over & #WuFlu #CoronaVirus Ended It

America, 2020
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Imagine if instead of Dec. 1941, WW2 had started in, say, February 1940. That’s where we stand with WuFlu. I just don’t see the 2020 campaign lasting past the first big outbreak of WuFlu in the States. Retail politics is, by definition, social and if you aren’t supposed to be in the same room with someone because they might make you sick, well, how the fuck can you campaign?

Only one or two journalists on Twitter are beginning to take WuFlu seriously as a political and national security issue in the States. That may — or may not — change in time for when the Pearl Harbor or 9/11 sized strike by WuFlu happens in the States within the next 28 days. We are so fucked for so many reasons, one of them being that the stewarts of the public interest — public intellectuals on Twitter — are so busy giving us hot takes about Campaign 2020 that they’re totally overlooking the huge iceberg that is headed straight towards us.

We. Are. So Fucked.

I mean, Italy is about to faceplant. South Korea is about to faceplant. And Iran is having a disturbingly high number of deaths. And fucking Japan may implode in stealth mode. Meanwhile Slate and Vox are bitching about Bernie Sanders in his underwear with Soviet apparatchiks 40 years ago. What we need is all the brand name nattering nabobs of negativism on Twitter to tell us not only what WE should do but what THEY are doing on a practical level to save themselves. That would be a way to alert people of how serious what about to happen really is.

A pandemic in the States would be equal to WW2. And Americans are so inward looking that we just don’t care. I got shithead MAGA people sniping at me about Bernie being the presumptive Democratic nominee when we should pause and think about how, in the end, we’re all Americans who bleed the same colored blood.

I don’t know what to tell you. It’s going to be mass chaos whenever the Kraken of pandemic finally arises from the US population. We’re totally unprepared. Totally flatfooted. We have no leadership and whatever leadership we do get will do find will be from the ground up, the “sheep,” if you will. Or, it will come from some unexpected places. I think Jon Stewart would be a great person to be the “Rudy” of our coming pandemic crisis. He has the skill set necessary.

But buckle up. We’re so fucked in the near term.

3W: The Final Countdown #WuFlu #CoronaVirus

These guys again.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
My big question right now is how much time do we have before there are reports of the first “warmzones” and, God forbid, “hotzones” in the United States from WuFlu. It could be hours, days, or weeks. But it’s coming. It’s definitely coming. It may already be here and for various dumb reasons, we just don’t know it. The United States has some major flaws that a major pandemic would exploit and spread to such an extent as to bring the nation to its knees within, say, two weeks.

Trump is a deranged lunatic
It would be bad enough if we had an actual president. But that the president is nothing more than a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner definitely adds insult to injury. Trump will probably spend all day tweeting in a deranged, passive aggressive fashion while Rome — or D.C. — burns instead of giving us any leadership.

We live in a free society
People at first won’t be willing to do what we have to do to save lives. There will be a lot finger pointing as Rome burns. It may take months for all of us to get on the same page and by that point a shit ton of Americans will have either died from WuFlu or various cascading side effects. The only reason why the Soviets saved Europe during the Chernobyl event was they could knock heads as need be.

We have a free press
I love the press, but it’s going to take a while for them to stop thinking about Campaign 2020 and to realize this shit is serious. There’s simply no institutional memory of WW2 and how the press handled that event.

Everyone has a gun
While I have my doubts about some of the gunnuts out there, there will likely be times when there’s significant violence in the States should a historic pandemic occur here in the near term. GunNuts will finally have their opportunity murder people in cold blood like they seem so eager to do. I fucking hate guns.

Everyone is sue-happy
People are so quick to sue when confronted with something they don’t like, that, well, if Wuhan’s present is our future, then, people suing because they can’t leave their house for the good of the community might be something of a complication.

Everyone feels entitled
This is something I think will cause the biggest problem in the first few days of any first wave of a pandemic in the States. People think they’re entitled and won’t work for the common good. This wills suck for everyone. But that SHOULD wear off after about three months of suffering. I hope.

White Privilege / Systemic Racism
Flint still doesn’t have water. But Goop can sell you shit that smells like Gwyneth Paltrow’s WhoHoo for $5,000. In other words, not until actual white people start to drop from WuFlu will the average American give a shit. And if you throw class differences into all of this, well, it’s going to be a mess that slows everything down far longer than you might think. It could be six months in before we start to see each other as patriots, citizens and humans and not our individually little identity politics island.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe everything will work out immediately. I have my doubts, however.

‘3W:’ The Personal History

We got this.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, generally, no one listens to me. They see me as a kook and a crank, which, to some extent, I guess I am. And, yet, I do have some value. I am very good at strategic thinking. I learned I had this gift while I was the publisher of ROKon Magazine in Seoul, South Korea. The magazine was a complete disaster — it’s problems and failures were all my own — but the fact that we lasted the few months we did was pretty much because for once in my life I was “cool” and people listened to me. That only happened because of the late, great Annie Shapiro, but that’s a story for a different day.

I often say if the end of the world came, say, a pandemic, I would either be murdered in cold blood the first day by someone who hated me or I would bring figure out a way to bring back civilization. I really believe that. Living in South Korea as an expat for five years really gave me some sense of how to survive when it seems you’re about to die. Everyday as an expat in an adventure and, in a sense, a crisis to be solved.

Anyway, all I know is if the worst happens in the States I really do think I’ll either be dead within the first few days or somehow manage to make life better for my fellow man. I really would rather not have that particular opportunity — I do have a novel to develop after all — but I think simply admitting to myself what may be about to happen is a way of taking the threat to the world, the United States, the people I love and care about –and myself, seriously.

Godspeed, gentle reader. We’re all going to need all the luck we can get in the coming days if the datapoints that are flashing red all over the world are pointing in the direction I believe they may be.

Shelt Garner may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com. Please don’t be crazy.

‘3W:’ Trump Heads To India & Wondering Who 3W’s ‘Rudy’ Will Be

Great risk brings great opportunity.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When I heard Trump was going to fucking India today, I thought it was some sort of joke. You could not write a worst scenario — the president not only leaves the country just as a cases of a pandemic may be about to strike the country in a big way, he goes to a nation that may get one very soon itself.

It’s the setup for a nightmare scenario whereby POTUS is out of the country when the pandemic strikes with 9/11 level force and that’s just the beginning of the process of pandemic. Imagine if 9/11 happened while Bush had been in India. And what if Bush was on the edge of losing his mind, anyway? How would that have worked out? It makes you wonder who our “Rudy” will be? I think it depends a lot on where the first hot and warm zones are. It could be NYC Mayor De Blasio if things work out. But one thing is for sure, 9/11 proved that the need for leadership is almost it’s own force — it will find someone, somewhere to pick up the slack when it’s not there at the top.

I’m reminded of a number of pop culture scenes of sudden mass chaos. The War of The Worlds and Cell both have scenes in them that give us some sense of how fragile and thin our grasp on civilization is. And, really, that’s what the first “phase” of the process of 3W (World War WuFlu) would be like. That would be when, because, well, Trump is a deranged moron and Twitter liberals have been willfully oblivious about what’s going on outside of the States right now, we all get on the same page as to the crisis the nation now faces.

One thing that bothers me is how people are engaging in fear porn on Twitter without at least trying to articulate what their fears are. It’s not going to be a movie. It’s real life. So, even if the absolute worst happens — and it may — life will keep going. Life will find a way. Those with hope, tenacity and vision wills survive and prosper if fate shines its eyes on them. People who panic and run around like a chicken with their heads cut off, not so much.

So don’t panic. Believe. Keep the faith. Fight the good fight.

Let’s rock.

‘Heroes Will Be Made. Cowards Will Be Shamed. All Will Be Remembered’ #WuFlu #Pandemic

My level of expertise about pandemic.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the datapoints point to a World War 2-level event careening towards the United States at an alarming rate. Now, let me state for the record that when it comes to virology I’m nothing more than Brian Fellows. But I do have a background in journalism and I at least TRY to be factual and encourage people not to wallow in fear porn.

I struggle to think back to what happened with WW2 and how you might apply it to the modern world. WW2, just as whatever the fuck you want to call the thing about to happen to the United States, was a process. It had phases. It had ups and downs. Heroes were made. Cowards were shamed. It changed everything. Overnight the children of the Lost Generation became the Greatest Generation.

A few things are likely to happen. First, when Twitter liberals realize that the 2020 campaign is likely to be canceled due to basic safety issues, then their minds are going to go Galactic Mind on us pretty fucking quick. You could get paranoid and say they KNOW what MAY happened and they just don’t want to scare people until, well, they’re not scaring people they’re just observing what’s going on around us. If this is true, I feel this is a disservice to their duty as public intellectuals. It makes the lot of them look callow and complicit in not warning people of the potential dangers ahead.

My current belief is the entire thing we’re about to face is going to be about 12 months. So, in about a year, things will slowly get back to “normal.”But, really, they won’t go back to normal. We’re going to be in a new era that will at least have a growing stability to it, whatever it is, whatever it’s called. But I don’t think the United States is going to make it. We’re just too divided. Or, put another away, there are three possblities ahead of the States.

  1. Division
    The United States in one year will well on its way to snapping into two countries — one Center Right, one Center Left.
  2. Dystopia
    MAGA will freak out and start murdering everyone they disagree with — like me!
  3. Defiance
    The United States survives and we “renew our vows” as a nation if you will, and finally remember that we’re all citizens, not Blue or Red.

Which one do I think will happen? I dunno. My mind tells me 1 or 2, my heart tells me 3. So, I guess anything can happen.

I do wonder, however, how pop culture will respond. Remember, we don’t have any leadership, so while things are going to go really fast compared to World War 2, the first “phase” of whatever happens with the pandemic in the States is going to be pretty much mass confusion and finger pointing. Only once we realize this is not an event, but a process will heroes arise. But I will note that by 1943, even Hollywood was active in the war effort. So, maybe by, say, August?, even Hollywood stars will be thrown into the anti-pandemic effort. The whole thing is going to suck, though, guys. Really, really suck.

There won’t be any narrative at the time. Historians will GIVE it a narrative in hindsight (2020 hindsight). But when it happens, it’s going to be scary as fuck, especially if Little Rock Man lobs a few H-bombs in the US’ direction. The very real possibility that the two Koreas will finally go End Game on us should give everyone pause for thought. But HOPEFULLY that won’t happen. But if South Korea implodes and its military readiness suffers significantly, it’s almost inevitable.

But, again, I’M BRIAN FELLOWS! I have no idea what I’m talking about, ignore me. Keep the faith.

Feb. 22 Threat Assessment: Code Word ‘1941’ #WuFlu #CoronaVirus

Get ready.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The disconnect between “world Twitter” and “American Twitter” has grown so huge, so surreal as to be rather existential. It’s almost as if Twitter was around in 1939-1941 and people like me realize — the Japanese are about to strike the States at any moment. It definitely feels like we’re in the twilight period before something historic and unprecedented happens. But let’s go through what’s going on with WuFlu right now.

America
Truth be told, they should have canceled the Nevada Caucus. All those people in the same room is less than optimal given that a yet-to-be-declared pandemic is whipping around the globe at an alarming rate. That we haven’t had it pop up in a big way in the States probably says more about poor cooperation between State and Federal authorities — and only four states have testing abilities — than it does about the number of cases actually taking place in the country. I keep expecting 40 elderly celebrities to drop dead within a 48 hour period from WuFlu and that hasn’t happened yet. So, maybe I was wrong about that metric. But I do think it’s possible that things are going to get way, way worse than they have to because of a bungled response on the part of our doofus president’s administration. If there was a “Flughazi” scandal, it would be huge and likely maybe — maybe — be the thing that brought down House Trump….but even then, it wouldn’t be until the middle of Trump’s second term. Trump’s not going anywhere for any reason. Even if there was a Second Great Depression. He’ll bribe Electors if he has to.

But there’s a huge wildcard, the thing that could change everything about campaign 2020 — what if they have to cancel the campaign because, well, we turn into fucking Wuhan on a national scale? Or if — God forbid — we have a massive “die off” off the old coots who run the country? I’m not a praying person, but I don’t wish anyone physical harm simply because I disagree with their politics. I would much rather just figure out how to survive the Fourth Reich than go through a pandemic. And there are no assurances that the “good guys” will win — see also, A Handmaid’s Tale.

South Korea, Iran, Italy
What’s going on in these three countries is an example of how Americans lulz anything that doesn’t involve, well, their country. Three major regional powers are being consumed by WuFlu and fucking Twitter Liberals are still obsessed with the 2020 Campaign. This is really, really fucking weird. But whenever the history of this moment is written — if we get the chance to write it — this will likely be seen as, say, November 1941. World War WuFlu is on its way — and maybe even The Gray Plague — and Twitter Liberals are completely indifferent. It’s shocking. Both South Korea and Iran have geopolitical issues that complicate their national faceplanting. South Korea, specifically being written off could cause not just sharp, if brief economic nose dive, it could also cause a major regional war that will suuuuuuuck.

9 Months That Shook The World
I believe we may have a sequel to 9 Days That Shook The World if the absolute worst happens with WuFlu. I just doubt the governments of China, Russia or the States will survive as they currently exist. I love America with all my heart, but what Trump has started, WuFlu may finish. The country may collapse in reform into two different countries — or MAGA will go full Nazi and use ICE camps to have killing American Killing Fields. You pick your poison on that one. The Russians are ripe for another revolution (probably in association with Putin using the confusion of a pandemic to start a general war against Ukraine). And things can only get so bad in China before, well, it just implodes. This is probably the most speculative of this post, but at least the conditions are there for what I suggest to have happen, happen.

Burn, Hollywood, Burn
I still think it may be a year of people not going to the movies that will lead to “immersive media” rising from the ashes like mammals after the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs. The entire infotainment industrial complex is going to get nuked if the worst happens. Talk about creative destruction! I really hope this doesn’t happen, but it’s at least possible.

Will ‘FLUGHAZI’ Be The End Of Trumplandia? — Wargaming A #DiseaseX #Pandemic #WuFlu #CoronaVirus

Don’t panic!

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m pretty good at strategic thinking. That’s my thing. So, let’s wargame the consequences of a major pandemic in the next, say, 28 days. The first thing we have to understand is such a pandemic would be the biggest historical event not since 9/11, but since August, 1945 — the end of World War II. As such, initially, the entire global order would likely lock up and collapse in the beginning stages of the process for lack of institutional memory as to handle such a situation, if nothing else.

My real concern at the moment is the “beginning” of the pandemic won’t be marked by what’s currently happening in Wuhan, but whenever there are reports of multiple “warm zones” across the United States all at once. Initially, CNN’s gut reaction will be to market it as a 9/11 Redux, when, in fact, it’s more like WWII redux — a world war against WuFlu (WWW) if you will. (You might call it WWX, but, then, people would confuse it with World War 10.)

Once we actually descended into the process of pandemic, the first event would be mass chaos the likes of which we’ve never seen in modern American history. Yes, 9/11 caused a lot of chaos, but that was one fucking day! Imagine two weeks of such chaos as we all figured out the “new normal” of the essentials of life being – for the time being — of dubious supply. Add to this that Trump is nothing more than a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner and, well, Flughazi! If the entire country turns its eyes to Trump and he goes full Col. Kurtz on us and just tweets all day in his bunker behind Mt. Rushmore as three regional wars erupt, go nuclear and even involve the US (Hi, Little Rocket Man!) then, well, there might (?) finally be some political consequences for House Trump? Maybe? MAYBE?

The great tragedy of it FLUGHAZI would be that it would be sometime in 2021 or 2022 before we recovered enough to get around to impeaching and convicting Trump for FLUGHAZI and by that point, lulz! I do, however, doubt the United States (or Russia or China) will make it through a serious pandemic. Just like during the 1914-1945 period, empires will rise and fall if history woke up and ran around in traffic for a few months.

Anyway, the point is — you could not write a worst case scenario if we go full pandemic in the next 28 days. Heroes will be made. Cowards will be shamed. We all remember them all. It is at least within the realm of possibility that not only will we lop of the existing old codger power structure of much of the world, but some pretty astonishing historical figures will pop out of nowhere for no other reason than are giving the opportunity to prove their true personal valor (or lack thereof.)

I hope none of that happens, I really do. But there’s at least a chance that 2021 pop songs are going to be pretty serious songs about love and love lost for tragic reasons. Maybe rock will come back. That would be cool. Sigh.

But we’ve still not reached the tipping point. There’s no narrative to any of this. I have no idea what’s going on. I can’t even formulate an educated opinion at this point.

Struggling With #WuFlu’s #Pandemic Chronology

I dunno.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m struggling to understand the potential chronology of WuFlu’s spread. The first case reportedly was recorded around Dec. 1st. That was when someone had their first symptoms.

It appears as though the Feb. 11 anniversary of the Iranian Revolution was the source of the current outbreak there. One thing that does make me concerned is the Nevada Caucus is this weekend. But I have no idea what’s going on. Lulz! (?)