by Shelt Garner
I’m by nature of a Lincoln Unionist. As such, I grow alarmed at the very idea that the Biden camp might, in desperation, encourage “Cascadia” (CA, OR, WA) to threaten to secede as part of a negotiating tactic once it becomes clear that Trump & Barr are going to ratfuck their way post-election to a “win.”
There are a number of reasons why this is, on the face of it, a dumb idea. The theory behind Biden doing this is they can get some much-needed Constitutional reforms (even though in the end House Trump would say in power.) Given how absolutely untrustworthy House Trump is, any notion that you could get concessions out of them that they might actually honor is ridiculous.
I, of course, don’t want any violence at all. But if the absolute worst happened, it makes a lot more sense for Blue States to stand and fight than to leave the Union. Now, to be clear, all of this is almost impossible for me to game out. I simply have no idea how, exactly, an actual “civil war” in the United States would work out.
But, as I’ve said, the first tip off we will have that this is Serious, is there will be significant political consolidation in Red and Blue States. This will happen in the form of places like Fox News, WSJ and NY Post literally being driven out of the city by angry Blue mobs. Meanwhile, it’s likely that within Red States all those fucking MAGA-Qanon fascists are going to begin to actively hunt down and murder liberals, hoping to drive liberals out of their states altogether. This is likely to happen very, very quickly as the two sides begin to figure out their war aims.
I think, in a sense, the scenario that suggests that Biden might even seriously contemplate such a “nuclear option” is really an expression of similar desperate attempts to keep the Union together during the 1860 – 1861 period. Even though on paper “Cascadia” could bounce out of the Union and do well, all attempt such attempt would do is give the US Military cover to put down the rebellion, just like they did the first one.
So, it seems as though a far better course of action would be to stay in the Union and attempt to court people like James Mattis (and others) who maybe are conservative but not MAGA so at least you would have their military training to tap into. No need to alienate them by attempting to leave the Union altogether
Also, remember, MAGA-Qanon, while very passionate and bloodthirsty, is only 38% of the electorate. No need to destroy the Union for that. Far better to for the majority of people who AREN’T completely insane to get their shit together and figure out how to re-unite the nation they all love.
But, I don’t know. It’s very obvious Interior Minister Barr is going to drop whatever legal nukes he has to for Trump to stay in office. So, unless the American people REALLY shock me, I think this is all moot. We’re just going to quietly slip into an autocratic managed democracy and that will be that.