by Ender
The thing about the first civil war was how it radicalized President Lincoln, who was, for the most part, pretty moderate. It is difficult for the average modern person to understand how radical abolition was when Lincoln embraced it as a war aim. If you want some sense of the lead up to the Emancipation Proclamation, the late William Safire wrote a huge tome of a historical novel called “Freedom” which is about that very thing.
Anyway, since Americans are the vast majority of the time extremely laid back on a macro political level — we’re not French, after all — only very rarely do you see moderates pick up the banner of radicalism. The most obvious time this happened was the Civil War Era, but, to a far lesser extent “radical moderates” also popped up around the Great Depression as well.
In fact, when it came to the First Civil War, it was these radical moderates who ultimately saved the Union. Only by embracing the radical war aim of freeing the slaves could the Union be saved.
And, now, the United States may be in a modern antebellum period. I only say “may” because a Second American Civil War is one of three options before us — autocracy, civil war or some sort of military junta that might lead to a Constitutional Convention.
The prime candidates to become Radical Moderates are all of the NeverTrumpers, a smattering of the Usual Suspect talking heads on CNN and MSNBC and maybe a few Hollywood celebrities with political ambitions. The key thing to remember is, however, once you slice the seal on a civil war, there’s no going back. Everything — and I mean everything — would be thrown up in the air. Strange alliances would be made. New heroes would arise. Historical figures that you could never imagine might spring into the public imagination.
But there’s one thing I have to make absolutely clear — no matter how much people like Jesse “Welcome To The New Right!” Kelly want to glorify the prospect of a civil war, it would suck. It would suck so bad that everyone involved, no matter who won, would live to regret it ever happened for the rest of their lives.
I say this for a number of pretty obvious reasons.
One, everything would grow existential. When things grow existential, it’s not where you went to school, or your race, or gender or if you’re a hipster in a coffee shop or a transgender person upset over the latest J.K Rowling attack. What would matter is how, you, as a person, could help the war effort. Starvation would be everywhere. Death. Despair. Tragedy. Hate. All these things would become a basic part of everyday life.
I believe this because if things got so bad that there was an actual Second American Civil War, WMD would be seized and used (a whole lot!) The lights would go out. Internet may be blocked or not available. You wouldn’t know anything because your access to any form of mass communication might be controlled or non-existent.
What’s once the United States buckled, the rest of the world would not be far behind. We’re talking WW3. Billions could die if not from a number of limited nuclear exchanges, then from the starvation that would result from the following Nuclear Winter.
All because Tucker Carlson convinced Baby Boomers that the Worst Thing That Could Happen To Them Is To Be “Canceled.”
Because of all of this, the aforementioned Radical Moderates would rise to the surface and probably be in control of the Blue States.
I find myself wondering how long a Second American Civil War might last. A lot would depend on the specifics of what caused it and the leadership the two sides had when it began. Or, even more importantly — what would be the two sides war aims?
The MAGA New Right would have some very clear war aims at the beginning — establish a White Christian Autocratic Ethno State — while Blues would probably have to gradually come up with them. And, as I have repeatedly said, a lot would depend on what California did. If it left the Union altogether, the Reds probably would win and consolidate power in the rump USA.
If, however, California stayed united with other Blue States, then we’re going to the show. California would be the Union’s Arsenal Of Democracy.
But, let me be clear –while I like to think the high-risk, high-reward of a Second American Civil War would lead ultimately to a stronger, more perfect Union just like the First Civil War, it might just suck. The United States could simply devolve into a number of rump states like the old Soviet Union.
It could be that after a number of years of chaos, that you would have something that looked like this: California, Texas and Florida would be their own nation-states. NYC might be a “free state.” Some sort of American Taliban might control huge swaths of the South.
Meanwhile, you would have a number of regional alliances that would exist with the goal of giving people some sense of security.
But all of that is extremely speculative. It could be that, in the end, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that’s that. Wealthy liberals leave the country for, I dunno, Perth and the cities of Europe and the remaining Americans slowly, but inevitably, circle the drain to “shit hole country” status.
Good luck. You — and the Radical Moderates — will need it.