This is another in my series of answering the searches about a civil war or revolution that bring people to this site. This one was from — you guessed it — Alabama.
Short answer: probably around January 2025, if it happens.
Long Answer: very good question.
That someone in Alabama would casually ask when the Second Civil War is going to start gives you some insight into how bad things are at the moment. But as of right now, I think if we do have a Second Civil War it will happen at some point after Election Day 2024 and before Certification Day in January 2025.
An actual hot civil war in the United States would be only one end of a spectrum of potential outcomes, with the an autocracy being on the other end. And lot depends on what Donald Trump does. If he runs for president again and is the nominee, he is so fucking idiotic and incompetent that he might, just by continuing to be a political force, push the United States into civil war.
But there is always a small chance that well before 2024 – 2025, some unexpected event might start a hot civil war in the United States well before the two sides (or I) expect it. Remember, for it to be a “civil war” you would need a government and troops. If it’s just a bunch of idiots in a rural part of Oregon and that’s it, well, that’s not even a revolution.
You would need some sort of mass attack on the civil Federal authority on a state level for it to be a real “civil war.” And, as such, my best guess is, at the moment, those conditions will be met when the government is at its weakest — between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.
I will note that I think we’re in a similar situation as about 1857, only things are begin speed up and feel slower because the pace of modern life is so much faster. But, as they say, people go bankrupt gradually then all at once, so it’s possible that my fears about a civil war will be justified a lot sooner than I currently expect.
But something really out of the blue would have to happen for the country to actually have a civil war anytime soon as of late 2021. We’ll see, I guess.
