Category: Cold Civil War

Marie Yovanovitch & Trump’s ‘Big Boy Crime’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I keep writing about this because it’s dark and it bothers me. It bothers me that we’re not paying attention to the implications of the recent FBI raid of Rudy Giuliani’s place.

When the news first came out that Trump and Rudy were mixed up with Ukrainian goons to put American ambassador Marie Yovanovitch “through some things” I sat up and took notice.

Even at the time, it was obvious to me that something very dark was afoot between Trump, Rudy and the goons. But we were so busy thinking about impeachment and lulzing Trump destroying the country that for most people what exactly may have happened didn’t register.

But, in short, if you follow the implications of what we know, I think something like this happened: Trump was desperate for a statement from the Ukrainian government that would implicate Hunter Biden (and by extension, Joe Biden) in corruption. As such, the people who might give that announcement to Trump set up a quid pro quo — you get rid of Yovanovitch and you get what you want.

Now, here’s where it gets murky.

Trump was president, so in theory he could just have fired her and that would be that. But there is a lot of evidence that Trump was ranting about how she was going to “go through some things” and I think he was even more hysterical than that, putting an even finer point on how her physical safety was at risk. (I apologize for being too lazy at the moment to look up the exact quotes. But given how much this bothers me, I probably will be a tiny bit more professional in subsequent posts.)

Anyway, it definitely seems possible that Trump was so desperate to get his fake announcement that he was prepared to “terminate” Yovanovitch on a physical level using Ukrainian goons who were already stalking her in Kiev. They were getting so bad that the embassy freaked out and told her to get the hell out of town in the middle of the night.

So, what if what the corrupt Ukrainians wanted for their announcement was not just Yovanovitch’s firing but her death? What if THAT was the quid pro quo? And it’s not much of a stretch to imagine a situation where Trump was ranting about how she needed to be “taken out” without even realizing that the idiot Ukrainian goons, if they heard about such comments through Rudy, would take Trump both literally AND seriously and do just that.

If the FBI could find proof of such communication and direction between Trump and the goons via Rudy then…oh boy. That would be a quantum leap over and above even Trump’s direct involvement with the January 6th Capitol Insurrection.

But that’s a pretty big ask. I am painfully aware of how easy it is to speculate on anything to do with Trump then be shown for a fool in more ways than one. Yet, if the FBI had evidence that Trump — even in an idiotic manner — was wrapped up in a murder for hire scheme as part of a quid pro quo that would, at last, be Trump’s Big Boy Crime.

The Metrics That Indicate A Second American Civil War Is Closer Than You Think


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. 70% of the Republican electorate think Trump won
    This metric is not one that indicates a healthy liberal democracy. It’s one of those things where you can’t quite figure out the origin of such a Big Lie. The interaction between the base and the Establishment is such that both sides are to blame. But the end result is the same: a huge number of Republicans think Trump should really be president right now. This is the dark goo that would be the could very well spawn significant political violence in the very near future for almost any reason. You just need to put extra pressure on an already failing system.
  2. MAGA’s glorification of political violence
    It definitely seems as though MAGA Republicans have made the cognitive leap to running around murdering people for political reasons, given the opportunity. As such, if you combine this metric with the first one, then you have a very unstable situation indeed.
  3. The Sham Arizona Recount Effort
    It is easy to imagine a situation where this is the catalyst to a very volatile situation. If Arizona Republicans manage to “prove” that Trump “really won” the state, then that cause produce a cascading series of events whereby states like Michigan and Pennsylvania feel compelled to the same thing. Next thing you know, Trump is running around saying he’s the “real” president and because of a combination of rank stupidity and probably being a Russian agent, he stumbled, in a half-assed manner, into causing a second American Civil War.

    Ok, there’s a huge “but” to all of this.

    In this case, the “but” is while there are three major metrics that definitely indicate America is on the cusp of a civil war in 2021, there are also a number of things missing that indicate that if it does happen, it will be more like the 2024-2025 timeframe.

    One major missing metric is someone like Trump, but smart, organized and hardworking. Trump is nothing more than an avatar. He doesn’t have to do anything but be himself and racist, mysogynistic assholes love him. But that, in itself, is not enough to cause a civil war.

    A Second American Civil War would need pressure to be placed on our system by someone who had some vision and organization to at least attempt a straight autocratic play. While I could definitely see Trump riding the wave towards a civil war, it’s difficult for me to believe that he has the mental facilities necessary to actually start one himself.

    But in 2024-2025, we will have the passions of a presidential election to strain the system and MAGA cocksuckers chomping at the bit to not only “own the libs” by knocking their heads, but being willing to simply nullify any POTUS result they don’t like.

    THAT kind of stuff is what would push the United States into a civil war, if we don’t simply turn into a MAGA autocracy.

    Let me say again, however, that I can’t predict the future. We may somehow, magically, muddle through this clusterfuck long enough for Republicans to recalibrate for white people being in the minority. There’s no way that’s ever going to happen, but I guess we can pin the entire fate of the country on such a pipe dream if it helps us sleep at night.

America’s Undead Liberal Democracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a personal level, I’ve found that American political system now lacks the grease necessary for a functioning liberal democracy. I simply can’t talk politics with my conservative relatives because we live in different factual universes. We can’t agree on facts. And our strongest beliefs are at such absolute cross purposes that we can’t have any political conversation at all.

This is not good.

If people who disagree politically — especially people who are related — can’t engage in any political discourse then your liberal democracy has a pretty big existential crisis on its hands.

Because what happens is either one side begins to feel disenfranchised and comes to see the attraction of political violence or they tune out and you have an autocracy. That’s why we face such a stark choice in 2024: civil war or autocracy.

There are no easy answers. I have no idea what’s going to happen one way or another. But I do know that, if you just look at macro trends and do some back-of-the-envelope extrapolations we are so fucked. We’re in for some historic political instability in the next few years, culminating — one way or another — in the 2024-2025 timeframe with autocracy or civil war.

Again, I don’t have any easy answers for you. I have no idea what you should do. But it is definitely something to keep in the back of your mind going forward.

Existential Lulz: What If We Could Prove Trump Wanted Ukrainian Goons To Hurt Marie Yovanovitch & No One Cared?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA Republicans are so detached from the normal rules of traditional American politics that you can find your struggling to come up with a scenario, any scenario, whereby they would finally, at last, throw up their hands and say, “Yeah, that was pretty bad.”

I have come to believe that we could have video of Trump and Armie Hammer having cannibalistic sex parties at Mar-a-Lago and it would be a lulz. In fact, it gives us some insight into the MAGA mentality that they get really, really offended at the idea that Trump might be racist but when there was a rumor that there was evidence of Trump using the “n-word” the general reaction from MAGA was, “Well, how many times did he say it?”

The origin of this warped political sensibility is, of course, racism. The macro demographic trends that are marching us towards a future where white people are in the minority are putting enormous pressure on American democracy. What MAGA Republicans want, of course, is autocratic rule. Specifically, they want an American answer to Russia’s Putin. That’s who they thought they were getting with Trump…but he turned out just to be a ding-dong.

As such, it definitely seems as though 2024 is it — we either turn into a MAGA autocracy or there’s a civil war. What’s more, if there’s a civil war in the United States, it will probably lead to some sort of global “reset” as every simmering flash point across the globe explodes and many, many people die. The entire post-WW2 global order will end and everything will be up for grabs on a geopolitical level.

It’s really going to suck.

But back to the point of all of this — if there was absolute proof that Trump was aware (and maybe even directed) the efforts to physically harm Marie Yovanovitch would it even matter? Would anyone who was MAGA care? A lot would ride on what the proof was. It would have to be pretty concrete. No wiggle room for various interpretations.

Most likely, sadly, what would happen would be there would be a lot of shock and gnashing of teeth on Twitter…and then nothing. Trump would just lay low for a few extra months then he would pop back up, run for president in 2024 and probably win. So, we would have a person who tried to get goons to murder someone as president. Good times.

It’s shit like that that makes one realize how dark things are in the United States right now. The systemic racism at the heart of MAGA is so all-powerful that once they get power again, it’s highly unlikely they will ever peacefully give it up.

But I definitely would suggest you keep an eye on the Trump-Rudy-Yovanovitch situation. Trump is so fucking stupid that it’s very easy to imagine a situation where Trump both knew and directed the efforts to hurt Yovanovitch but it was done in the context of Trump having a poor grasp as to what he was doing. He would have been doing his usual bullshit and the goons on the ground in Kiev would be taking him seriously AND literally.

And, really, I wouldn’t get too excited even if Trump’s machinations against Yovanovitch were the end of his personal political career. There are at least half a dozen would-be American Putins waiting in the wings to do what Trump was too stupid and lazy to do: bring autocracy to America.

The future is very dark.

‘The Quiet Before The Storm’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I suggest everyone enjoy the less than two years we have left before Congress flips and Republicans control two out of the three branches of government. That will be the first step towards the very stark choice America will face in 2024: autocracy or civil war.

Now, there may be some variations on all of this — I can’t predict the future, after all — but our democracy is so weak and its politics so undead right now that I just can’t see the return-to-normal that we have going on right now lasting beyond 2024.

There are so many would-be autocrats waiting in the wings for Trump to make up his mind about running again and the push to nullify any vote that Republicans in Congress don’t like so strong that 2020 may be looked back upon as the last free and fair election the United States had. Of course, if we have a civil war and the “good guys” win, then after about five or so years of WMD-caused mass death we may begin to return to a normal — if very changed — American again.

It really bothers me how oblivious Twitter liberals are about how dire things are right now in the United States. We’ve been lulled into a false sense of safety because Trump is gone, but take one look at the continued lunacy of MAGA Republicans and you see more than enough to send a chill down your spine.

MAGA Republicans have already made the cognitive leap necessary to begin murdering people for political reasons. All that has to happen is some sort of undue, unexpected pressure is placed on our political system and the rest will take care of itself.

It’s logical, right now, to assume that pressure will come simply from the passions of the 2024 presidential cycle. But it could be something else — that happens sooner. If, say, Trump pulls a Scalia on us and simply dies of natural causes because he’s old, that event, in itself, may be enough to spark massive political violence because, lulz, MAGA cocksuckers will assume the Deep State murdered him.

But let me say again — I can’t predict the future. Anything can happen. But the only reason why the stark choice of 2024 didn’t happen in 2020 is because of one person: Donald Trump. If Trump had been the person people thought they were electing in 2016 and not a ding-dong, then we wouldn’t have had a free and fair election in 2020 and we would now all be living under the thumb of Trumplandia.

As I keep saying — get out of the country if you can. After about 2024, America is going to be a place anyone who isn’t MAGA is going to want to live in. Or there’s going to be a civil war and we’re going to bomb ourselves into the stone age so American Karens don’t have to worry about being “canceled.”

The Curious Case Of Marie Yovanovitch, Donald Trump & Some Ukrainian Goons


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the lingering questions of the enormous clusterufck that was the Trump Administration is how much Trump knew in advance about the physical risk Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch faced when she abruptly bugged out of Kiev. If you could prove that Trump knew exactly what was going on and was cool with it, then you got yourself a pretty big scandal.

If you could get to the next step of proving Trump not only knew about the goons intentions but approved of them and even maybe directed them, then, well, we’re going to the show.

It’s been a while, so my memory is a bit fuzzy, but just using what we already know about particular situation, it’s enough to send chills down your spine. Trump said, at one point, that Ambassador Yovanovitch was “going to be going through some things” and I seem to recall Trump getting even more explicit to the point where it definitely seemed as though he wanted physical harm to come to her.

Now, too often in the past I’ve thought Trump was going to be dealt a mortal political blow for this or that thing he did and absolutely nothing came of it. So, the case could be made that even if you could prove Trump not only knew but directed the goons who forced Ambassador Yovanovitch to flee Ukraine for her life in the middle of the night…it’s very possible MAGA would see it as a lulz.

But of all the post-presidency things that might, just might kneecap Trump’s chances of being the Republican 2024 nominee….proof that he was active in a plot to murder the American ambassador to Ukraine might(?) be enough to do the trick.

Contemplating A Secession Crisis In 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As always, America’s fate may rest with the actions of a ding-dong. I say this because there is a down low political crisis brewing in Arizona. If Republicans finally manage to “prove” that Trump “won” the state and then other states that Biden won that have deranged Republican legislatures follow suit, there may come a point when we have a severe political crisis on our hands.

And it would happen a lot quicker than you think.

All that would have to happen is just enough states flip from Biden to Trump through the nefarious machinations of Republicans to “prove” that Trump “really did win” and we might get that 2021 civil war way too many people seem interested in.

It’s easy to imagine Trump getting really excited and at the news that he “won” and crowing at every opportunity. (Now, over the years, I’ve come up with many, many, many over-the-top dystopian Trump scenarios and he’s proven himself to be too stupid and lazy to actually do any of them. So this could be another example of this. But hear me out.) This causes the small population lily white states of the Mountain area to call snap state conventions to secede from the Union because, well, lulz, Trump “won” YOLO.

I don’t really think this will happen, but there is a greater-than-zero-chance that it just might…in 2021.

And, yet, if you’re a fucking MAGA cucksucker who wants to murder liberals in cold blood as part of a Second American Civil War…you aren’t really thinking things through. Yes, you can probably get six or so states with very small — and white — populations to “leave” the Union…but what are you going to do about the South, you morons.

You’re so wrapped up in the Glorious Cause of “making America Great again” by having a ding-dong president for life, that you are completely missing the issue of race. Race and a Southern secession crisis is not something you just wave your Miller Lite at and mumble something about how you’re figure that out when you get to it. The moment MAGA legislatures in the South attempt to leave the Union so they can suck Donald Trump’s political cock, you got yourself a race war.

Race relations in the United States are pretty shitty as it is. Throw in MAGA Nazis wanting to put African Americans under their jackboot in the South and…oh boy. That is not going to go well.

But given how idiotic MAGA people are on this subject — they really, really want a fucking civil war — I would suggest there are a few milestones to look for in the coming days. If these things begin to happen, then, yes, you can spooge in your AR-15 then clean it off and start thinking how you can murder people like me in cold blood because of cancel culture.

  1. Trump “wins” because Biden’s wins in a number of states are overturned by MAGA legislatures.
  2. Trump goes nuts and runs around saying he won and is actually still president. He won’t shut up about it and the fucking cocksucker MAGA people start to listen
  3. A number of MAGA Nazi state legislatures call secessionist conventions to leave the Union because, lulz, Trump is “really” president.
  4. The secession crisis smacks into the South and African Americans begin to freak the fuck out and something akin to a race war erupts.
  5. Average people begin to vote with their feet, with Red people in Blue states and Blue people in Red states fleeing their states because they fear for their lives simply because of a difference in political views with people around them in their neighborhoods.
  6. The two sides differences harden because of this political consolidation and the U.S. Military even begins to have problems with people leaving their ranks to side with the secessionists.
  7. Trump forms some sort of “shadow government” and calls up troops from the states that have “left” the Union.
  8. All hells breaks loose. There’s a civil war. A lot of people die. But at least Mary Sue won’t have to worry about being canceled after she yelled at a African American clerk for getting her order wrong.

    Ugh.

‘Civil War 2021’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Come on, people. While I’ll give you that a Second American Civil War is one of two options we face in 2024, something pretty big would have to happen for a civil war to happen this year.

In fact, there’s only one scenario I can think of using existing information that might lead to a civil war: recount efforts in states that Trump lost pick up steam after Republicans in Arizona finally get the result they crave ( a Trump win) and that leads to such instability that something akin to a civil war happens before the end of the year.

That’s it. That’s all I got. Otherwise, all you good old boys smoking a doobie on the back parch in deepest Alabama who think dem dar libtards need to get murdered in cold blood ’cause of cancel culture are just going to have to wait until the 2024-2025 time frame to quench your bloodlust.

Also — fuck you, you fucking redneck, by the way.

Anyway, I am now getting a constant stream of people using keywords “civil war 2021” or “civil war in 2021?” or “revolution in 2021?” Chill out you fucking idiots. That Red fucktwads would be so excited about the prospect of a Second American Civil War is, in itself, a metric that should cause alarm.

The thing that bothers me the most is Twitter liberals are simply not taking the glorification of political violence on the part of the Right seriously. They are so busy thinking they can somehow magically make D.C. a state that they are totally oblivious to how a portion of the Right is chomping at the bit to start murdering people for their politics.

There are no easy answers to any of this, I’m afraid. Just get ready for it to get worse, a lot worse. In 2024, as I keep saying, we’re going to face a very stark choice — autocracy at the hands of MAGA or civil war. Everyone will have to pick a side.

An Illuminative Conversation That May Portend A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I had a very interesting conversation with a very conservative relative recently. It was very illuminative about what’s going on with the Right until I got really angry and it abruptly ended. At the end of the conversation I got really, really mad because my interlocutor refused to acknowledge that Trump was the direct cause of the January 6th Capitol Insurrection. This, after we all saw Trump incite the revolt on TV. And, what’s more, the person I was talking to agreed with me right after the event!

But he had changed his mind, apparently, since then.

The interesting thing about talking to someone from the Right, especially someone who is smart and well educated is that many of their views are the exact opposite of mine. But it was interesting that there was one issue that he believed but could not support — he believed that it would be Leftists, not MAGA, who would attempt to establish an autocracy.

I pressed him on why he believed this, and he just blinked a few times until we moved on.

It’s how conversations like this one cause people to stop talking about politics altogether that indicate MAGA cocksuckers are going to get their long-sought after Second American Civil War soon enough. The bolts are popping of our political discourse in an alarming rate and soon enough, just like slave power in 1861, MAGA Republicans (in probably 2025) are going to come to believe that if they can’t get an autocracy that their only recourse is a civil war.

When two people from opposite ends of the political spectrum simply give up talking about politics because things grow too heated, then the whole system is going to collapse one way or another. Either you get an autocracy where half of the electorate has given up or you get a civil war where both sides believe politics is no longer a viable option to enact policy change.

So, my chief take away from the conversation I had recently is America is a powder keg. At some point — probably in the 2024-2025 timeframe — we will be presented with a very, very stark choice: civil war or a MAGA autocracy. The Right has already established the ideological framework for a civil war and, in fact, they crave it.

You can only rant about how much you hate “libtards” and because they love open boarders and “want to kill babies” before you organize in a collective manner to “end” that particular “problem” once an for all. As I keep saying, MAGA forgoing politics for political violence is very, very dumb for a number of reasons.

But it definitely seems — at least if my Webstats are any indication — that good old boys all over America want to murder people like me once they get the chance. How successful they will ultimately be is anyone’s guess.

Second American Civil War 2021: The Growing Arizona Recount Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Almost all of this blog’s traffic now comes from people nervous about a Second American Civil War or revolution sometime soon. Given where most of these people are from, it definitely seems as though a bunch of MAGA good old boys search for this subject while drinking Millar Lites on the back porch of their cabin with a good buddy.

I would guess this happens because of this or that perceived slight on the part of “libtards” get them so worked up they start to think a Second American Civil War is bound to happen any moment now.

I’m growing alarmed by events in Arizona. It definitely seems as though the Arizona Republican Party is absolutely determined to do as many recounts of their presidential votes as necessary to prove that Trump won. This go round, they’ve gone so far as to pick a brand name in the “Stop The Steal” movement to be among those conducting the recount. And, from what I can tell, security isn’t so great where their doing the recount. AND, Trump has demanded the National Guard be called in to monitor the recount.

So, much fear is, after yet another recount, Arizona Republicans will “prove” that Trump “won” and, as such, this will set off a chain reaction. Trump will first run around crowing that he won Arizona after all. It will become gospel among Republicans that Trump won Arizona. It will be come a talking point that Republicans pivot to whenever there is a discussion of the 2020 election. Another thing that might happen is other states that Trump feels he should have won will do the exact same thing and before you know it, the country will become very, very unstable.

Could it be Second American Civil War in 2021 unstable? Unclear. It’s possible, but not probably. So, I guess if you want to fuck your gun, you can think about Arizona while you sodomize your AR-15 or something. But if Arizona Republicans manage to flip their state to Trump — even if it’s debunked — then we really are careening towards civil war or autocracy in 2024-2025.

As for 2021, I’m reluctant to think we’re going to have a civil war so early.