A Fortnight Is A Long Time #COVID19 #Pandemic

Matt Schlapp — he’s never going to get woke, even if we all die from Trump going insane.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Given what China was able to do, I’m beginning to think that maybe there’s some hope. Maybe. Maybe Trump’s hope that COVID19 will just vanish in a few weeks will come true and he can go back to plotting his consolation of power to found the Fourth Reich.

Is it possible that we may have a big spike in infections for about two weeks then it will subside like in China? I don’t know. I’m not an expert. The issue is, of course Trump. In fact, I would go so far as to say Trump’s mental state is probably the most mediated crisis we face with what happens with COVID19

Even if we have a best case scenario and after a significant spike in cases over the course of the next fortnight the cases drop, Trump could very well snap mentally in the meanwhile. When it becomes apparent to him that the previously absolute personal fidelity he enjoys with the MAGA base might not be as absolute as it has been, he might just snap. Either he’s going to implode or explode. I honestly don’t know which one.

If he implodes, then we’ll have something of a Pence Regency where we see Pence all the time and Trump just tweets really weird things — like usual. The only tip off we might have is he simply stops doing public appearances or any of his Nuremberg rallies. If he explodes, meanwhile, that will make an already bad situation far, far worse. He will begin to tweet really passive-aggressive things. He will abuse the “Presidential Alert System” in some astonishing ways. It will be a gross, historic national embarrassment for the ages. Trump will at last be seen by all for what he really is — an American Caligula.

But, again, it may be that we have a really, really wild two weeks or so (maybe until the end of April) and then things settle down. I just don’t know exactly the dynamic of what happened in Wuhan. Or, put another way, since this is a process, not an event, events are moving so fast and I don’t have a frame of reference to know what’s important and what’s not.

One thing I will say — things may get so bad so fast that even if they subside equally as dramatically in early April, Trump is not going to walk away from this unscathed politically. The economy is probably going to lock up in the near term under the best of circumstances. The fundamentals are sound, so I guess it’s possible Trump’s vision of losing the popular vote and winning the Electoral College will, again, happen and, well, lulz!

Or, to put it another way — nothing has happened yet to indicate Trump will suffer any long term political confluences even if some of the more dire things I’m worried about — The Gray Plague, the Wuflop — happen. As always, there’s only one person Trump has to worry about in real terms — himself.

If he snaps and finally does something so astonishing insane that even, say, Matt Schlapp has to admit, at last, that maybe we’ve enjoyed the tax cuts enough and Pence can give him just as many young hack MAGA judges as Trump.

Oh, who am I kidding, Trump is the anti-Christ and that’s why MAGA supports him. Even if Trump turns the earth into a post-nuclear hellscape, MAGA will just say everyone who was vaporized really went to heaven as part of the Rapture.

Ugh.

Of #Pandemic Terminology

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Ok, real talk. I am well aware that in the early days of AIDS, it was often referred to as “The Gay Plague.” I have thought a lot about my use of the phrase, “The Gray Plague” in that historical context and I feel comfortable using it going forward.

The reason is, while “The Gay Plague” was proscription, “The Gray Plague” is descriptive. AIDS is actually pretty hard to get and a lot of people who weren’t gay got it in the early years because of tainted blood transfusions. And calling AIDS “The Gay Plague” was often used to harm the gay community and make people even more homophobic than they already were in the 80s.

Meanwhile, it’s not like people are going to avoid old people because of The Gray Plague. Going forward, the vast majority of people who die from COVID19, are going to be, well, old. So, yes, I guess is sounds rather tabloid to call it The Gray Plague, it is also a reasonably accurate description of what’s going on. It really is a potential massive culling of older people along the lines of the Black Plague.

The other term is “Wuflop.” Now, there’s a medical term for this that I can’t find. But I’m growing leery of using WuFlop because, well, MAGA are a bunch of fucking racist who will likely hop on the term to do God-only-knows what to Asian people of all stripes. So, I will continue to use the term in a sort of gallows’ humor fashion until I find out what the actual scientific term for the event is.

Whatever its scientific term, the WuFlop is eerie as hell and Americans simply aren’t prepared to see it happen here.

I have completely stopped using WuFlu outside of some things I step early on in the pandemic on this Website.I started using it at first because I thought it was an amusing reference to Wu-tang Clan. MAGA shitheads are trying to brand it the Wuhan Flu so they can blame the Chinese government and continue to suck Trump’s political cock.

I look forward to spitting in the eye of the Fourth Reich ICE agent who arrests me for these posts before he puts a bullet in the back of my head. Good times!

My Current ‘Gray Plague’ Death Toll Prediction

The Gray Plague
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


At a minimum, within one (1) year, I believe about 1 million elderly people in the United States will have died preventable deaths. Or, put another way, at a minimum, whenever the COVID19 vaccine is approved and is being used that’s how many elderly people would otherwise be alive if, say, Trump was an actual traditional president.

Here’s where I get that figure.

If 1.4 million high-risk elderly people are in 15,600 homes across the country, then that’s probably (maybe) 600,000 people who may die rather abruptly and in a very alarming manner over the course of a few (early) months. That 1.4 million people are sitting ducks to die from COVID19 as things stand. As COVID19 bounces around the general population, a lot of people with COVID19 will visit their elderly relatives while unknowningly sick with COVID19.

But that’s just the beginning. There are 47 million Americans 65+. Roll that around in your head for a moment and it’s not too far fetched to assume at least an additional 400,000 elderly people will die who might not otherwise have died with an abundance of precaution.

Now, if you really wanted to get dark, you would say that rest homes are really just a means to an end. Each one of those 15,600 nursing homes will be strategic superspreaders. Before we even realize what’s going on, not only will a horrific number of at-risk elderly people die, but the general contagion will be signficiantly amplfied across the country from people who have gone in and out of one of those facilities before we even know what’s going on.

But, before a Twitter Liberal tweets this to prove how I’m a “dangerous charlatan” spreading bad information as a part of “fear porn” — please don’t listen to anything I have to say. I just like running scenarios and writing. Hence, this post.

I’m probably wrong. I’m always wrong. But the above is my general sense, as of right now, as to how potentially bad things might get. It could be less severe, it could be worst. Who knows. I can’t predict the future.

‘Acceptance’ #COVID19

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I feel I’m about two weeks ahead of everyone else psychologically when it comes to this pandemic. As such, I’m feeling rather calm. I’ve reached acceptance.

How Twitter Liberals view me.

The key thing is I accept that absolutely no one is going to give me any credit for, in a sense, calling some major elements of this crisis. I’m just a no body. I am an aspiring novelist and the I’m very pleased with what I’ve managed to develop so far. I am rather worried that its context will be dramatically different, however. Though given how overtly political and anti-MAGA it is (in a very diffused, non-preachy manner), I guess if we manage to make it through alive, there might be an audience for a rumination on the Trump Era hiding under the guise of a thriller.

I’m going to assume that’s the case gong forward, anyway.

We do have some significant milestones ahead of us. Trump hasn’t gone bonkers yet. We haven’t had The Event that will “re-calibrate” our perception of the world for years, maybe decades, to come. That Event will either be the first conspicuous culling of the elderly associated with The Gray Plague and / or recorded instance of the WuFlop somewhere in the United States. Given how fucking racist MAGA is, I probably need to stop calling it “the Wuflop.” It has an actual scientific term, but I don’t know how to spell it — yet.

Anyway. The issue at this point is how bad, exactly, is it all going to get? I could get a lot worst than we imagine right now given the cold hard fact that there are about 15,000 rest homes in the United States with a total of 1.4 million residents. Each one of those rest homes not only could potentially be felled by COVID19, but also serve as something of a “signal amplification” site for the virus because it’s not like prison where not that many people go in and out. People go in and out of rest homes all the time — often from outside the community — and, as such, well, yikes!

It may get very dark within the next two weeks until our minds acclimate to what’s going on around us. We haven’t even gotten to the part where global bad actors decide to strike while the going’s good.

And still Trump won’t be held politically accountable.

COVID19’s REAL Danger Is Just ‘Trump Derangement Disorder’ According To Hugh Hewitt

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I guess we’re still in the “denial” phase of MAGA’s potential death rattle. Or, maybe, the phase before the Fourth Reich consolidates power and the American Killing Fields open in an ICE Camp near you. Lulz?

The reason why I say that is Hugh Hewitt is living in la-la land when it comes to the Trump Administration’s reaction to COVID19. What is also interesting is it seems as though MAGA “thought leaders” are prepping the ground for some regular old racism — people like Hugh Hewitt keep conspicuously calling it “Wuhan Flu” as if to dog whistle some anti-Chinese racism in the near, near future. (Please note, I still call COVID19, “Wuflu” because that’s what I first heard it called and it’s a sly reference to Wu-tang.

And, all things being equal, they’re likely to succeed. COVID19 is moving rather slow right now and they have plenty of time to lay the ground work for blaming Asians, or liberals or God himself, if need be, for any political damaged going forward. In the end, I think we all know what may happen — the Dear Leader will simply order the faithful to vote for him, no matter what, as a sign of their personal fidelity to him. He’s already pretty much close to this when he called farmers “patriotic.” He’s trying to get them to tow the line long-term so the evil brown people and the evil feminists won’t snatch their children in the middle of a cold Iowa night.

So, in a sense, MAGA is no longer just a cult, or a personality cult, it’s a DEATH CULT. They would rather we all die than Trump face any political consequences. So, even if Trump somehow magically is force out of office peacefully, House Trump will bounce back extremely quick by telling the faithful that they only lose because of the media’s “hoax” coverage of COVID19 that tanked the economy. This, even if, like, 11 million people die. They just don’t care. They really hate women and brown / black people that much.

I have say, I’m rather impressed with Hugh Hewitt and his fellow MAGA thought leaders for their commitment to the grift. I love you Hugh Hewitt, I really do. You’re the bestest guy in the WHOLE WORLD.

#MAGA Is A Death Cult #COVID19

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It has taken me a little while, but I’ve figured out why so many MAGA people are interested in COVID19. It’s not that they’re oblivious to the fact that Trump is completely fucking up the handling of this pandemic. They just don’t care. That’s a lulz.

What they’re more interested in is the idea that a pandemic will be the end of the global liberal order that has kept the peace for about 75 years. They’re looking forward to, what? I don’t know. A lot of elderly people dying unnecessarily? I thought angry old Baby Boomers were the core of MAGA. But, lulz. I guess the younger, more ignorant MAGA shitheads think that when the global order collapses and the poors are desperately searching for food while Peter Thiel snorts coke off a twink’s asshole that, what, their jobs will come back? That women will go back to being living gestation pods?

Some of it is that, by nature, many MAGA shithead fuckers are preppers who have been looking forward to the end of the world for some time — why else would they vote for the anti-Christ, I mean Donald Trump. They have been preparing for a post-apocalyptic hellscape for decades, so if Trump makes it closer to being a reality, all the better. All the more reason to support him, right, you fucking shithead KAG and MAGA fucks?

House Trump is going to lie and cheat as necessary in its craven need to consolidate power going forward. The Fourth Right is here. I just have to be sure not to die in an ICE Camp.

You Got This, #NYC #COVID19

New York Got This.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I have said more than once that when New Yorkers feel that same feeling they had on 9/11 that America’s knees will buckle and the country will fall to its collective knees. I’m not a New Yorker, but I am an American and empathetic.

What made 9/11 so bad on a national level was that the otherwise fearless New Yorkers were gobsmacked. Stunned. The one city in the world that can kick the ass of any other city in the world was cowering in fear. It bounced back in a few hours, but when America saw NYC wasn’t functioning, we became equally dazed.

So, here we are. It’s now probably inevitable that NYC is going to become a hot zone. All we don’t know is when and how severe. As we start to test more and more people, the numbers are going to rise rather dramatically. There is likely to be a rather dramatic “re-calibration” of New Yorkers’ world view, just like there was on 9/11. But they’ll bounce back soon enough and start to thrive in The New Normal.

The thing New Yorkers probably need to realize is the WuFlop is going to pop up in the city soon enough. When it happens, a lot of New Yorkers are likely going, indeed, feel that same gut punch feeling they felt on 9/11. The WuFlop is extremely disturbing. Eerie. Frighting. But don’t let how spooky it is get to you. You’re a New Yorker and hayseed rubes like me in the hinterland look up to you for how tough you are otherwise in the face of adversity.

Now, let me address something — I don’t see the above as Fear Porn. I’m not trying to scare you by pulling bullshit out of my butt. I’m simply using what is known and then extrapolating into the future using the facts. New York City — especially mid-town — has a shit ton of world tourists every day, every week, every month. So, COVID19 is going to pop up in NYC in a pretty brutal fashion soon enough.

But I believe in NYC. Maybe one day I’ll get to live there, just like I did in Seoul. Let’s rock.

‘Accountability’ #COVID19

MAGA, 2020
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


At the heart of MAGA is the idea that because they’re skart of women with sexual agency and the browning of America, Trump — as an avatar of their misogyny and racism — can pretty much rule as a tyrant because, lulz! Now, that ideology is being put to a test with the first real crisis Trump has experience that is not a self-own.

And it could not happen at a worst time. Not only has Trump already been impeached and acquitted, but we’re not well into the 2020 presidential campaign and so all things being equal, Trump could murder me live on Sean Hannity’s show ritual sacrifice style and, well, “let the people decide.” Add to this that generally exactly what I predicted would happen, is happening, the same political dynamic associated with global climate change is happening with COVID19 only with far more dire and immediate consequences is happening, well, we got a problem.

It’s very possible that after some thrashing about for the right strategy, House Trump will find just the right mixture of hate, racism, ignorance and “owning the libs” necessary to do exactly what he was going to do anyway — lose the popular vote and when the Electoral College. By one vote, if need be. In fact, as I keep ranting, Trump is fully prepared to dox, or threaten or bribe individual electors simply to get into office so he can fight another impeachment battle.

If you work on the assumption that the Russians are going to hack directly into our election computers, anyway, then, lulz. Even if we prove this happened, by the time we get around to fixing the problem it could mid-way into his second term. He could very well name Don Jr. his veep and, then, well, House Trump will have been founded once Trump is finally convicted in the Senate in, like, August 2023. Or he could use an actual American Nazi like Rep. Steve King as his veep to make the prospect of impeaching-and-convicting as nasty as fucking possible.

Or, put it another way — there is unlikely to be any accountability for Trump turning what could have been The Little One into THE BIG ONE. MAGA is a death cult. They would rather we all die that women have the right to choose or AOC have the political power she’s potentially going to grow into.

I Have Seen The Future Of The Democratic Party & His Name Is Jay Inslee

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Don’t sleep on the nation reaction to the State of Washington’s reaction to COVID19. As I have repeatedly said in rather grandiose, poetic manner, when it comes to COVID19, “Heroes will be made. Cowards will be shamed. All will be remembered.” There’s a reason why Trump was so weirdly personal recently against Washington State Governor Jay Inslee, calling him, of all things, “a snake.”

Trump knows Inslee is something he will never be: a leader.

Washington Governor Jay Inslee

I have also said repeatedly that much like 9/11, when Rudy became a national figure because, well, George W. Bush was busy hiding out in a bunker, so, too would there be a number of political heroes be made in the wake of Trump being nothing more than a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner.

Another thing — we are one “WuFlop” away from an unprecedented public perception crisis. The average American simply won’t be able to comprehend it when they finally see happening on a American shores. It’s very eerie everytime I see it. And the person doesn’t have to actually “flop.” Just seeing someone abruptly faceplant for no reason is also rather unsettling.

America, for all our might, is not immune to basic math and physiology. And, so, when we do get the WuFlop, or The Gray Plague really gets bad, it will be men — and women — like Jay Inslee who will keep the country going while we figure out what to do with our doofus criminal who tweets all day and generally being a Russian operative.

If history is any guide, in about two weeks, there’s a good chance that the United States will have multiple hotzones growing exponentially and the death toll will skyrocket. I fear, because of the criminal incompetence of the Trump Administration, that an event that might have been “The Little One,” is going to turn into “THE BIG ONE.” In other words, it’s going to be a real life horror movie.

Within months, we may be talking about not thousands, or hundreds of thousands but MILLIONS of people sick, dying or dead. Of course, given how slow this crisis is moving right now and how, how large a geographic area we’re talking about and the size of the population involved it’s going to take a while for this to happen. Until it doesn’t.

The reason why I believe we need to “recalibrate” our high end of this disaster is we had two months to do something about this issue and we didn’t do anything. So, just wait until 20 nursing homes are reported to be hotzones. Or the prison system gets involved. Or the ICE Camps. Or, the homeless in California.

I don’t mean to scare you. This is not fear porn. Fear porn, in my opinion, is when you use end-times confirmation bias to draw conclusions that aren’t based in fact — you just want people to freak out. But what I’m suggesting is based on what’s going on in Italy and Iran RIGHT NOW.

Or, to put it yet another way, we’re going to need a lot more people like Jay Inslee and a lot less people like Donald Trump to make it through this crisis which, through sheer criminal mismanagement on Trump’s part may be seen in hindsight as the biggest domestic crisis in American history since the end of the Civil War.

‘The Undertoad:’ — Buckle Up, Hunker Down, This Weekend May Be LIT #Covid19 #CoronaVirus

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


The last few days, I think much of America — at least the fact based part of it — has been feeling a sense of dread. A sense that something bad is about to happen. We’ve been feeling the Undertoad.

The Powers That Be have a vested interest in keeping the sheeple at peace. Not that that is all that bad — I mean, I don’t really want panic to set in. And, yet, I feel as though because we have a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner as POTUS we, as a nation, haven’t really been focused on what a huge fucking disaster we’re about to be pushed into.

I only say this because of what’s going on in other countries. Within about a week of their first cases being reported, places like Italy and Iran saw a huge surge in cases — and deaths. It doesn’t take too much to do a back-of-the envelope comparison and say this weekend might be the tipping point when we realize the criminal incompetence of the Trump Administration has finally caught up with us.

The Pacific Northwest right now.

The key thing we have to keep in mind is we’re going to have to write off the Pacific Northwest in the next few days. The contagion blackhole now consuming it is going to turn supermassive. The whole region — if Italy is any guide — is going to lock up on a societal level and its economy collapse. And that will be only the beginning. The same thing is going to happen in all the major American cities in days. By the end of next week, I suspect the entire American economy will have locked up and collapsed.

It will, of course, bounce back, but it will take a few days — or weeks — for people to adjust to the new normal of social distancing and a daily rising death toll for a preventable and unnecessary disaster. Of course, House Trump will likely play dirty with people lives and think of every way they can stoke fear and racism in an effort to deflect any form accountability. And, really, it could very well work except for, well, Trump. A fish rots from its head and, uh, it’s at least possible Trump could either explode or implode mentally. I’m not “rooting for the virus” and I’m not “rooting” for POTUS to go bonkers. But we have to take that possibility seriously.

The actual experts keep talking about how COVID19 isn’t “The Big One.” Well, this is something of a worst case scenario and Trump being criminally incompetent might make what otherwise might be “The Little One” into THE BIG ONE.

It seems logical to assume that by about March 15, the States could be looking at something of a real life horror movie. The worst domestic crisis since the Civil War. Not even Lincoln got away with suspending the writ of habeas corpus without some consequences — it’s seen as a major legal issue for his legacy. Trump, being a moron, would likely do this in a rather ham-handed, dumb way that would piss everyone off should he have to lock the country down as the contagion consumed huge swaths of the country.

Anyway, the point is — this weekend may be rather lit. I do keep getting the exact chronoligy of our future history wrong, so take everything I write with a grain of salt. If it’s not this weekend, however, it definitely will be at some point between now and March 15.

If it isn’t, then, well, Trump really has gone all-in on the Nero thing and is going to Tweet as thousands — if not millions — die for no damn reason other than he wants to keep the stock market doing well.