Hard MAGA Power Vs. Soft Woke Power

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I’ve gleaned from talking to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — is their abject fear of some future tyranny coming not from the hard power of the state but the soft power of “woke corporations.”

Of course, they’re complicit in the rise of the American fascist corporate state because not only do they not take the looming fascism of MAGA seriously, but they because they, in general, agree with that fascism it would all be a lulz.

Not until the hard power of the MAGA fascist state is used to not only deport 20 million undocumented people — which they want — but to also murder me in cold blood — which they don’t want — will they take notice of how there is a definite difference between hard and soft power.

So, what happens is, conservatives would far rather conflate issues and get REALLY WORKED UP over the “abuses” of the woke than they would have to give serious answers to questions like, “What happens when the massive infrastructure built out to deport 20 million people is used to murder people you love?”

They usually either don’t answer, make a joked to change the subject or piviot to the latest conservative talking point.

It can be very, very frustrating.

The rise of a MAGA fascist state in the US is not an abstract to me — I’m really beginning to worry that if Trump becomes POTUS again that I’m going to be murdered in cold blood by an ICE agent — or whatever — because I simply will not, can not shut the fuck up about how I think Trump is a fat fuck cocksucker.

But my conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — just lulz all this. As long is those brown families are torn asunder at the border they’ll be content. As long as a stray trans person doesn’t get a free can of But Light, they will be content. As long as the social safety net is gutted and only fools and poors pay taxes, they will be content.

The list goes on.

It will be interesting to see what my fate is. If I’m lucky, I will be able to escape the country should Trump win re-election later this year.

A Darkness At Noon: What If Trump Goes Full Tyrant in 2025?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying — I can’t predict the future. So there’s every reason to believe that Trump will lose later this year and we’ll punt our problems down the road another four years.

And, yet.

I like to make my abstract fears concrete, so, I worry. I worry a lot. Specifically, I worry about what is going to happen if Trump wins and then goes “fully tyrant” in 2025. Will there be any reaction at all if Trump is literally snatching his opponents off the street in broad daylight?

That, specifically, is the thing I just can’t game out. It could be that nothing happens and it could be that Trump will be so ham-handed in his autocracy that he single-handedly causes those rarest of American political creatures, the “Radical Moderate” to pop out.

Radical Moderates only appear in times of great crisis — like the Civil War, The Great Depression or WW2. And usually they don’t last long. The calm down and go back to being just regular old centrists.

I just don’t know. I have no idea what to tell you about events going forward.

It’s Clear That The United States Is Lurching Towards A White Christian Ethnostate The Moment Any Republican Becomes POTUS

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re doomed. We’re fucking doomed. The Republican Party is now a fascist one with one agenda and one agenda only — to establish the United States as an autocratic, MAGA-themed white Christian ethnostate.

The key thing to remember is that we can only punt this particular problem down the road so much. Even if we “vote harder” and beat Trump at the polls, the Republican Party is so fascist and radicalized that it’s inevitable that the pressure to transform the US into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate will remain.

So, if it’s not 2025 that we turn into an Christian autocracy, it will be 2029.

As such, there is a part of me — not a very big part — that feels like throwing down the gauntlet NOW so at least if we are going to have a big political / military fight over the choice of autocracy or freedom at least ding-dong Trump will be in charge of the fucking fascists, not someone with any sense about them.

But I only think that when I get really fucking frustrated with the chipper do-gooders who think that if we only “vote harder” that that will fix everything. But it won’t. There’s a good chance that even if the “vote harder” strategy works that Trump will demand a National Divorce to avoid prison time.

Or, put another way — the issue is, that barring some sort of Black Swan event pretty soon, late 2024, early 2025 could see some of the most dramatic events in American — if not human — history. I can’t predict the future. Who knows.

Comparing To Trump to Navalny Is Fucking Insane

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The late Alexei Navalny.

Alexei Navalny’s tragic death has caused the usual MAGA suspects to compare his murder to what’s going on with Trump these days. Or, even more stupidly, MAGA will do “whataboutism” of pointing out the uncertain nature of Jeffery Epstein’s death in prison.

Ugh.

And Tucker Carlson pretty much gave Putin a pass for what happened to Navalny. Double ugh. The whole thing is fucked up. But it does give us a pretty solid indication of how bad things will get if Trump is re-elected.

I continue to predict that about 1 million wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flee the country starting in late 2024, early 2025 should Trump get re-elected. That will be just the beginning as Trump begins to put the squeeze on anyone he sees as either a potential political opponent or critic.

What’s so bonkers about all of this is, of course, the fact that if Trump is really ham-handed in the implementation of MAGA tyranny….oh boy. All bets are off as to how that particular situation is finally fixed. If Trump is a total bonkers tyrant starting in 2025….it’s at least POSSIBLE that Blues might rise up against him in some sort of General Strike that might lead to a Glorious Revolution.

But I have my doubts — and I’m not advocating anything. I hate violence of any sort.

Yet I am worried. Very worried.

MAGA Is American National Socialism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of how socialist the Nazis were is a tricky one whenever it comes up. The Nazis being socialists is something that far Right American groups throw around whenever they want to shit on the center-Left.

What people miss about the Nazis and socialism is the Nazis were NATIONAL socialists. They were far Right nationalistic group that wanted to take over the world. But they *were* socialist, just not in the way that could be used to attack center-Left people in the US.

It’s hard for an American in the 21st Century to understand the complexities of why Hitler added “National Socialist” to the National Socialist German Worker’s Party’s name. But he did. And he really fucking hated both traditional socialists and Communists.

But the issue for me is — MAGA is American National Socialism. It’s even more complex than that, though. MAGA really doesn’t have any ideology other than whatever the fuck Trump “truths” that particular day. And that’s something interesting about the future of American National Socialism — what happens when fat fuck Trump shuffles off this mortal coil?

Who will take up his bonkers mantel and will the base of the Republican Party have the same about of absolute fidelity to him or her? A lot depends on how far we’ve transitioned into a MAGA-themed autocracy when ding-dong goes up to that big fast-food joint in the sky.

I do think we need to keep any eye on MTG. That woman is far more sly that any of us might otherwise believe. And I have long thought that we might one day live under a “Velvet Glove” autocracy with our tyrant being a MAGA woman, not man.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

About 38% Of The American Electorate Wants A White Christian MAGA Ethnostate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just refuse to believe that our only option at this point is to “vote harder.” Everything I’ve read about what happened in Germany indicates there is no historical 1-to-1 between Germany 1933 and America 2025. And it’s not just beyond the obvious, “there’s never a 1-to-1” between historical events.

The reasons why about 38% of the electorate wants a white Christian ethnostate instead of a democracy are just really, really different from why the Nazis — barely — took power in January 1933. Where is the MAGA SA to knock the heads of Blues who don’t want to abide by fascism? The list goes on.

The issue for me is that too many people think that if Trump comes to power again and he goes full tyrant on us that all the Blues in the USA will simply shrug let him consolidate power and fucking snatch people off the street because he doesn’t like them.

These people are being extremely short sighed and simplistic. Trump has already caused some pretty unprecedented things to happen, there may come a point where his corruption of the administration of the leavers of power grows so bad that, on principle, the populace might rise up and depose him. (I’m not advocating anything, just musing. It really grates on my nerves when people refuse to contemplate how we might combat MAGA autocracy if Trump becomes POTUS again.)

Anyway, in general, we’re fucked going forward. There is a chance that Trump will get re-elected and that will be that. We’ll become a white Christian ethnostate and I’ll die in a Trump-branded ICE concentration camp because I won’t shut the fuck up about how I think Trump is a fucking cocksucker.

I Don’t Think Believing It’s Possible America Will Fall Into Revolution & Civil War Because of Tyrant Trump is ‘Optimism Bias’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still smarting over some fucking Twitter liberal putting me on blast for simply believing that it won’t be the of the story if Trump wins re-election in the fall. This nattering nabob of negativism seems to think that our only choice is to “vote harder” and it’s a foregone conclusion that we’ll turn into German 1933 the moment Trump has power again.

I find this extremely aggravating. I don’t think it’s “optimistic” to suggest that SOME SORT of severe reaction will happen within Blue parts of the USA if Trump goes full tyrant. Seems pretty dark to me. Now, obviously, if Trump goes full tyrant, there’s a chance that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country.

But that still leaves a shit ton of very angry Blues spread across the third largest nation by geography and population. I don’t want to have to depose the POTUS in a revolution then have to worry about a civil war when Red States leave the Union in protest.

That would not be fun or cool or “optimistic.”

Anyway. I am not prepared to give up if Trump wins. For me, it won’t be the end of the story, it will be a new beginning in which we will all be tested and forced to figure out what we will risk our lives and scared honor IN THE REAL WORLD to protect.

Not advocating anything.

It’s Like We’ve Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks, other than maybe “Watch out for that last step.” Now, in February of 2024, it definitely seems as though the only way we prevent Trump from being POTUS again is some sort of Black Swan event that I just can’t predict.

I continue to believe that people are looking at the potential of a Second Trump Administration all wrong. It will be so tyrannical and such an aberration compared to anything we’ve ever seen before that I don’t think it’s “optimism bias” to think the reaction to Trump’s ham-handed tyranny could be just as unprecedented.

As I keep saying, America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.

At a minimum, it will take time for Trump to build out an SA-like infrastructure to remind Blues to keep their heads down and mouths shut. I keep musing on the idea that Trump is somehow deposed in a Glorious Revolution, then that, in turn prompts a Second American Civil War.

That, in turn, causes World War 3.

And, yet, I just can’t predict the future. No one can. And there is every reason to believe that either Biden is peacefully re-elected, or Trump really does get to be a tyrannical autocrat and we all just lulz it.

Though I do think that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country once it becomes clear that Trump is actually going to do what he was elected to do in 2016 — be an autocrat.

Why I’m Really Worried About The United States In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of things are coming together at the same time to destabilize the United States. Everything from negative polarization to income inequality is eating away at the very fabric of the greatest nation in world history.

I just don’t know if we’re going to make it through the 2024 presidential silly season.

There is every reason to believe we will, but even if we do, we could very well peacefully slide into autocracy under a second Trump Administration. They key thing for me is the Republican Party wants an autocratic white Christian ethnostate sooooo fucking bad that, in a sense, Trump is all that stands in the way of the getting their goal.

Not because he’ll lose, but because if he wins, he could very well rile everyone up so much in the ham-handed manner in which he tries to establish that autocratic white Christian ethnostate that there’s a “Glorious Revolution” by Blues and he’s deposed — not that I’m advocating anything!

Anyway. A lot is going wrong in the US right now. But for my worst fears to come true — that the US would collapse into revolution and / or civil war — a lot more shit would have to go wrong.

Hopefully, at a minimum, we’ll just peacefully turn into an autocracy and I’ll figure out some way to leave the country.

Birthright Citizenship Is In Serious Danger If Trump Is Re-Elected

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the absolutely bonkers element of any second Trump Administration is the fact that he will be gunning for something we all taken for granted — birthright citizenship. This make me both very angry and very alarmed because the first thing fascists — like the Nazis — do is start to fuck with who is a “citizen.”


I have conversations with my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — and their reaction to the potential demise of something as fundimental as birthright citizenship is a real life shrug emoji. They just don’t care. All they care about is “securing the border” to the point that when you press them about how they plan to deport 20 million undocumented people — they just laugh.

They don’t care, they just want it to happen, damn the consequences.

So, it definitely seems as though if Trump is re-elected that many of my dystopian fears for his first term will come to fruition. I just don’t know what to tell you folks. It definitely FEELS like I may very well lose my citizenship and find myself in a Trump-branded concentration camp at some point after 2025 if I can’t manage to sell the novel I’m working on and get the hell out of the country.