We’ve Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What the fuck are we going to do about Trump. He tectonic demographic and political history forces that have put him in the situation he’s in are so powerful, so potent that it definitely seems he’s going to become POTUS again, no matter what.

Then the shit is REALLY going to hit the fan.

A second Trump Administration would be a total, fucking catastrophe in a way not seen since 1865. It would be truly ironic if we found ourselves caused by a civil war that Lincoln wanted to prevent in 1860 and one that Trump wanted to cause in 2024.

It’s really going to be interesting to see how bad things get. Everything is so fucked up and there doesn’t seem to be any ready way to fix things going forward. Trump is so dumb and yet so powerful as an idea to the MAGA fascist New Right that, lulz…virtually ANYTHING could happen between now and early 2025.

Some More Idle Musings About Trump & Hitler From A Political History Standpoint

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The 2024 election could very well give political historians a great deal more insight into Hitler’s democratic assumption of power in 1933. I say this because Trump is demonstrably a weak candidate at this point. And, barring some Black Swan event, he should be in line to lose to Biden in a pretty dramatic way.

But because of two issues, Trump could STILL become POTUS.

One is how fucked up our political system is. Even semi-functioning democracies like ours have a political ebb and flow to them on a macro basis and as such, Trump remains 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS, no matter what the fuck he does.

The man is above the laws of the state and of politics. He could eat someone. He could murder someone. He could marry Ivanka. He. Can. Do. Anything and STILL be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again.

The other issue is Trump’s supporters like the “idea” of Trump. They want a white Christian ethnostate where there those sweet, sweet white babies are plentiful and gay people know to be quiet and stay in the closet. Which makes you wonder if that’s what happened with Hitler as he rose to power. To this date, people continue to debate how inevitable it was that Hitler, specifically would become the leader of Germany.

And if Trump is re-elected this year, then the case could be made that the two men are a lot more similar than you might think. Both had a certain momentum to their rise to power and, as such, when the time came, History Found A Way to part the seas so they could take over their nations.

But we’re not there yet. It could go either way. On paper, at least, Trump should lose. But, then, on paper, there was no reason to believe Hitler would be named Chancellor in January 1933.

And yet he was.

As such, I think there is a 50 / 50 chance at the moment that Trump will become POTUS again and all hell will break loose. Some stunning events could happen starting in late 2024, early 2025. Things that we’ve simply never seen before in American political life.

Political opponents might be snatch off the street or flee the country. Thousands of wealthy, well educated people might vote with their feet and leave the country. The idea of “show your papers” might be the central issue of the day. A Constitutional Convention might be a very real possibility.

What’s more, it’s possible that Trump will be so bad at being a tyrant that the Poors in Blue States who don’t have the means to leave the country might actually pull of a General Strike the crashes the economy and forces the U.S. Military to do something about Trump. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)

Anyway, I’m waiting for some future historian to write “Hitler And Trump, a Dual Biography.”

There Is An Economic Element To What Divides America At The Moment — Abortion

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone far more even keel than I has long poo-pooed my somewhat hysterical fears about a the potential for a revolution / civil war starting in late 2024 – early 2025 because, in his opinion, there is something absent: an economic element.

He suggests that you can only have a civil war / revolution if there some sort of economic component to the causes of such a conflict. With the original Civil War, it was, of course the economics of slavery that caused the United States to buckle.

But as I have proposed before, abortion is an economic division in the United States and, as such, could be the cornerstone of any revolution / civil war in the United States that might start in the next 18 months.

Trump’s hero, Viktor Orban of Hungary.

Do I really think a civil war is going to happen should Trump be re-elected? I dunno. I honestly don’t know. It’s a least a POSSIBILITY, but not a probability. At this point, the only reason why I give the idea any mental energy is how absolutely dumb and ham-handed Trump would be in any effort to transition the United States into an autocracy.

Anyone else in his position — ANYONE ELSE — would be able to do it in such a way that there was no civil war and we would transition to, at a minimum, an Hungary-like autocracy in due course.

But Trump is so fucking dumb and stupid that he, unto himself, could push the United States to the brink.

2025: Trump As Tyrant

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While all the conditions are there for Trump to lose, the conditions are ALSO there for Trump to win. The key thing is if Trump does all the crazy tyrannical shit he vows to do in 2025, what will be the reaction? Because that is the thing that not enough people have been willing to address.

If Trump wins, leading up to Trump being sworn in, a lot of smug Twitter liberals will leave the country in a panic. But that will leave us Poors to deal with Tyrant Trump. One issue is what will happen when on “day one” starts to round up undocumented people in hopes up putting them in camps and deporting them.

Now, a lot that may happen depends on who controls the House. If Trump goes full tyrant, then he will probably be promptly impeached if Democrats control the House. Then there is a possibility that maybe, just maybe there might be some sort of Women’s Strike or General Strike on the part of Blues to pressure the Senate to actually do its job and get rid of Trump.

But the thing is, Trump would have to get really, really, really bad — push the entire nation to the breaking point — for something as dramatic as a Blue General Strike to be successful. It would be a dark, chaotic moment in America’s over two centuries of history.

And if we managed to impeach Trump successfully because of the pressure of a General Strike, then there’s a chance that not only could his veep be the person who actually turns us into an autocracy, it could also start a civil war when Red States leave the union.

So, I don’t know what to tell you. The next 18 months could be totally fucked up and historic in some pretty astonishing ways.

Is Trump An American Caesar?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long believed that Trump is NOT a great man of history like Caesar. But I do think he is a historical and constitutional torpedo headed towards the American ship of state. The key issue is — Trump is, just like Biden, old as hell. And Trump isn’t in the greatest of health because of his weight.

So, there is every reason to believe that Trump could destroy everything…then it will be his MAGA Nazi successor who will do the mop up work. Or, even less conclusively, it could be that the process of turning America into a white Christian ethnostate is half done.

It could be that Trump gets us as far as starting the process of crushing American democracy through a rouge Constitutional Convention…then shuffles off this mortal coil. That would cause even more chaos and uncertainty because…then what?

I think the key thing is that the Republican Party is not fascist and it’s just a question of if we collectively shrug when they attempt to turn us into a fascist state, or if we do something about it. (Not advocating anything.)

The next 18 months will be….interesting, not matter what.

Hard MAGA Power Vs. Soft Woke Power

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I’ve gleaned from talking to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — is their abject fear of some future tyranny coming not from the hard power of the state but the soft power of “woke corporations.”

Of course, they’re complicit in the rise of the American fascist corporate state because not only do they not take the looming fascism of MAGA seriously, but they because they, in general, agree with that fascism it would all be a lulz.

Not until the hard power of the MAGA fascist state is used to not only deport 20 million undocumented people — which they want — but to also murder me in cold blood — which they don’t want — will they take notice of how there is a definite difference between hard and soft power.

So, what happens is, conservatives would far rather conflate issues and get REALLY WORKED UP over the “abuses” of the woke than they would have to give serious answers to questions like, “What happens when the massive infrastructure built out to deport 20 million people is used to murder people you love?”

They usually either don’t answer, make a joked to change the subject or piviot to the latest conservative talking point.

It can be very, very frustrating.

The rise of a MAGA fascist state in the US is not an abstract to me — I’m really beginning to worry that if Trump becomes POTUS again that I’m going to be murdered in cold blood by an ICE agent — or whatever — because I simply will not, can not shut the fuck up about how I think Trump is a fat fuck cocksucker.

But my conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — just lulz all this. As long is those brown families are torn asunder at the border they’ll be content. As long as a stray trans person doesn’t get a free can of But Light, they will be content. As long as the social safety net is gutted and only fools and poors pay taxes, they will be content.

The list goes on.

It will be interesting to see what my fate is. If I’m lucky, I will be able to escape the country should Trump win re-election later this year.

A Darkness At Noon: What If Trump Goes Full Tyrant in 2025?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying — I can’t predict the future. So there’s every reason to believe that Trump will lose later this year and we’ll punt our problems down the road another four years.

And, yet.

I like to make my abstract fears concrete, so, I worry. I worry a lot. Specifically, I worry about what is going to happen if Trump wins and then goes “fully tyrant” in 2025. Will there be any reaction at all if Trump is literally snatching his opponents off the street in broad daylight?

That, specifically, is the thing I just can’t game out. It could be that nothing happens and it could be that Trump will be so ham-handed in his autocracy that he single-handedly causes those rarest of American political creatures, the “Radical Moderate” to pop out.

Radical Moderates only appear in times of great crisis — like the Civil War, The Great Depression or WW2. And usually they don’t last long. The calm down and go back to being just regular old centrists.

I just don’t know. I have no idea what to tell you about events going forward.

It’s Clear That The United States Is Lurching Towards A White Christian Ethnostate The Moment Any Republican Becomes POTUS

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re doomed. We’re fucking doomed. The Republican Party is now a fascist one with one agenda and one agenda only — to establish the United States as an autocratic, MAGA-themed white Christian ethnostate.

The key thing to remember is that we can only punt this particular problem down the road so much. Even if we “vote harder” and beat Trump at the polls, the Republican Party is so fascist and radicalized that it’s inevitable that the pressure to transform the US into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate will remain.

So, if it’s not 2025 that we turn into an Christian autocracy, it will be 2029.

As such, there is a part of me — not a very big part — that feels like throwing down the gauntlet NOW so at least if we are going to have a big political / military fight over the choice of autocracy or freedom at least ding-dong Trump will be in charge of the fucking fascists, not someone with any sense about them.

But I only think that when I get really fucking frustrated with the chipper do-gooders who think that if we only “vote harder” that that will fix everything. But it won’t. There’s a good chance that even if the “vote harder” strategy works that Trump will demand a National Divorce to avoid prison time.

Or, put another way — the issue is, that barring some sort of Black Swan event pretty soon, late 2024, early 2025 could see some of the most dramatic events in American — if not human — history. I can’t predict the future. Who knows.

Comparing To Trump to Navalny Is Fucking Insane

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The late Alexei Navalny.

Alexei Navalny’s tragic death has caused the usual MAGA suspects to compare his murder to what’s going on with Trump these days. Or, even more stupidly, MAGA will do “whataboutism” of pointing out the uncertain nature of Jeffery Epstein’s death in prison.

Ugh.

And Tucker Carlson pretty much gave Putin a pass for what happened to Navalny. Double ugh. The whole thing is fucked up. But it does give us a pretty solid indication of how bad things will get if Trump is re-elected.

I continue to predict that about 1 million wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flee the country starting in late 2024, early 2025 should Trump get re-elected. That will be just the beginning as Trump begins to put the squeeze on anyone he sees as either a potential political opponent or critic.

What’s so bonkers about all of this is, of course, the fact that if Trump is really ham-handed in the implementation of MAGA tyranny….oh boy. All bets are off as to how that particular situation is finally fixed. If Trump is a total bonkers tyrant starting in 2025….it’s at least POSSIBLE that Blues might rise up against him in some sort of General Strike that might lead to a Glorious Revolution.

But I have my doubts — and I’m not advocating anything. I hate violence of any sort.

Yet I am worried. Very worried.

MAGA Is American National Socialism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of how socialist the Nazis were is a tricky one whenever it comes up. The Nazis being socialists is something that far Right American groups throw around whenever they want to shit on the center-Left.

What people miss about the Nazis and socialism is the Nazis were NATIONAL socialists. They were far Right nationalistic group that wanted to take over the world. But they *were* socialist, just not in the way that could be used to attack center-Left people in the US.

It’s hard for an American in the 21st Century to understand the complexities of why Hitler added “National Socialist” to the National Socialist German Worker’s Party’s name. But he did. And he really fucking hated both traditional socialists and Communists.

But the issue for me is — MAGA is American National Socialism. It’s even more complex than that, though. MAGA really doesn’t have any ideology other than whatever the fuck Trump “truths” that particular day. And that’s something interesting about the future of American National Socialism — what happens when fat fuck Trump shuffles off this mortal coil?

Who will take up his bonkers mantel and will the base of the Republican Party have the same about of absolute fidelity to him or her? A lot depends on how far we’ve transitioned into a MAGA-themed autocracy when ding-dong goes up to that big fast-food joint in the sky.

I do think we need to keep any eye on MTG. That woman is far more sly that any of us might otherwise believe. And I have long thought that we might one day live under a “Velvet Glove” autocracy with our tyrant being a MAGA woman, not man.

Only time will tell, I suppose.